20 April Daily technical trader

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20 April Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index continued its strong bullish momentum for the third consecutive session gaining around 97 points (0.78%). The index cleared the 12,500.0 level and thereafter witnessed a remarkable rally, tagging a new high of 12,678.84, but later trimmed its gains to close at 12,550.98. This action revealed exhaustion on the part of buyers at a higher level and the index may consolidate or decline before its next upmove. The index has support at 12,513.65. Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Uptrend MARK extended its strong rally and surged 5.83%, tagging another new all-time high on the back of large volumes. We believe the stock is aggressively moving up over the past two days and may continue its rally making new highs. Moreover, the stock has support for a further higher move from the RSI, which is moving strongly in the overbought territory, while the MACD is drifting away from the signal line on the upside with no immediate trend reversal signs. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index extended its remarkable rally and gained around 1.42% to settle at the 4,100.03 level. However, the index trimmed its gains after tagging another new all-time high of 4,148.08 as buyers backed away from the higher price. We believe based on the current price action it seems the index may consolidate or drift lower to test the 4,075.0 level. However, if the index manages to stay above this level on a closing basis it may rally further. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Downmove IQCD breached the support of QR181.40 and moved down on the back of large volumes, which is a negative sign. Moreover, the stock has been moving along the descending trendline over the past few weeks and is struggling to move above it. We believe although the stock is sitting right at its support of QR180.0, it may not hold onto it and drift down further to test QR178.30. Both the indicators are pointing down indicating the possibility of a downmove. Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Downmove BRES witnessed a gap-up opening and momentarily moved above the resistance of QR37.40, but could not cling onto it and retreated. We believe therefore QR37.40 poses a strong hurdle for the stock, which it must overcome in order to continue moving higher, until then it may drift lower. The stock has immediate support at QR36.80, followed by the 21-day moving average. Any decline below these levels may trigger selling pressure. Both the indicators look weak. Qatar International Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Upmove QIIK continued its upmove and cleared the resistance of QR83.0 on Thursday. We believe the stock may continue its upmove and advance further to test QR86.10. However, the stock needs to clear this level in order to confirm this bullish momentum. Any failure to clear QR86.10 may result in consolidation. Meanwhile, the bullishness in the RSI is intact, while the MACD is moving up in a bullish manner, reinforcing our positive technical outlook.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,550.98 UP UP 12,513.65 12,450.00 12,636.00 12,678.84 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,100.03 UP UP 4,075.22 4,027.12 4,125.00 4,150.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 47.20 UP UP 46.00 44.15 48.50 50.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 68.70 UP UP 68.40 65.75 70.00 71.50 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 63.00 UP UP 61.50 60.00 63.30 64.50 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 83.90 UP UP 82.40 80.20 84.50 86.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)* 84.50 UP UP 83.00 80.70 86.10 87.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 75.00 UP UP 74.80 72.40 76.00 77.50 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 23.19 UP UP 22.90 21.49 23.50 24.40 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 81.50 UP UP 79.90 79.00 83.00 84.50 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 182.00 UP UP 175.00 164.00 182.00 185.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 180.00 DOWN DOWN 180.00 178.30 181.40 183.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 184.00 UP UP 180.00 178.20 185.00 190.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 92.50 UP UP 90.00 86.60 93.00 94.50 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 61.80 UP UP 61.30 59.70 64.70 66.30 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)* 37.00 UP UP 36.80 35.80 37.40 38.40 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 22.60 UP UP 22.38 22.00 23.00 23.42 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 149.00 UP UP 145.30 143.50 149.00 151.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 16.28 UP UP 16.00 15.41 16.90 17.30 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 22.10 UP UP 21.83 21.58 22.19 22.50 Milaha (QNNS QD) 97.00 UP UP 96.50 95.10 98.30 100.10

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