SlideShare a Scribd company logo
WHICH PREDICTIVE MODEL WILL
BEST HELP INCREASE RETENTION?
PAW BUSINESS, OCTOBER 30TH 2017, NEWYORK
EMILIE LAVOIE-CHARLAND, DATA SCIENTIST AND RESEARCH & INNOVATION CONSULTANT,THE CO-OPERATORS
AGENDA
 Insurance 101
 The problem
 Survival Analysis Solution
 True Lift Solution
 Take Aways
2
INSURANCE 101
Non-
Renewal
INSURANCE 101
Renewal
HOW CAN WE INCREASE
HOUSEHOLD RETENTION?
THAT IS THE PROBLEM!
WHY CARE ABOUT RETENTION?
A
R
7
8
WHATWE KNOW AT COOPERATORS
WHATWE CAN USE
 Potential predictive solutions
 Survival analysis –When will a Household leave?
 GLM logistic –Which Households Leave?
 Multinomial regression –What happens after a Client Review?
 True-Lift modeling –Which Household can we influence?
9
OUR EXPERIENCE
10
2016-04-31 ---------------
2016-01-05 ---------------
2016-05-15 ---------------
Survival
OUR EXPERIENCE
11
2016-04-31 ---------------
2016-01-05 ---------------
2016-05-15 ---------------
Survival
True-Lift
----------------- 2016-10-31
---------------- 2016-08-08
----------------- 2016-10-15
SURVIVAL ANALYSIS
WHENWILL A HOUSEHOLD LEAVE?
WHY USE SURVIVAL ANALYSIS?
13
WHY SURVIVAL ANALYSIS AND NOT GLM?
GLM – logistic
Which household leaves?
 P(yes) is simple to explain
 Insurance, Marketing …
 Snapshot
 Simple extraction
 No time-dependence
Survival Analysis
When will a household leave?
 Hazards are complex to explain
 Medicine,Warranty …
 Continuous view
 Complex extraction
 Time-dependence
14
WHY SURVIVAL ANALYSIS AND NOT GLM?
GLM – logistic
Which household leaves?
 P(yes) is simple to explain
 Insurance, Marketing …
 Snapshot
 Simple extraction
 No time-dependence
Survival Analysis
When will a household leave?
 Hazards are complex to explain
 Medicine,Warranty …
 Continuous view
 Complex extraction
 Time-dependence
15
MODELING PERFORMANCE
16
IMPLEMENTATION
 Agency super list
 Target households
 Agent meets with clients
Risk
Category
HH Percent
(BHF)
A 7.1%
B 6.9%
C 10.8%
D 13.9%
E 8.9%
F 52.4%
Risk category A
Low tenure – New business
Young clients
Single product
17
18
19
TRUE LIFT MODELING
WHICH HOUSEHOLD CAN WE INFLUENCE?
WHY USE TRUE-LIFT MODELING?
21
Target Non-Target Prediction
WHYTRUE-LIFT AND NOT SURVIVAL?
Survival Analysis
When will a household leave?
 Profile with lower survival
 Y = intensity
 Continuous view
 Time-dependence
 Trigger events
True-Lift
Which Household can we influence?
 Profile with higher response
 Y = lift
 Snapshot
 No time-dependence
 Impact of an event
22
WHYTRUE-LIFT AND NOT SURVIVAL?
Survival Analysis
When will a household leave?
 Profile with lower survival
 Y = intensity
 Continuous view
 Time-dependence
 Trigger events
True-Lift
Which Household can we influence?
 Profile with higher response
 Y = lift
 Snapshot
 No time-dependence
 Impact of an event
23
MODELING PERFORMANCE
24
25
26
TAKE AWAYS
WHICH APPROACH SHOULD WE USE?
INSURANCE 101
Does not always receive training.
Does not have time to plan.
Mostly reacts, does not initiate.
TAKE AWAYS
 True-lift and Survival Analysis : two distinct questions.
 Question the model you use.
 Best model ≠ best results.
 Study of retention = business process knowledge
 Change management is critical!
 Businesses evolve quickly – follow model performance!
29

More Related Content

What's hot

[CXL Live 16] Growth Hacking BS: Fixing Marketing One Truth at a Time by Morg...
[CXL Live 16] Growth Hacking BS: Fixing Marketing One Truth at a Time by Morg...[CXL Live 16] Growth Hacking BS: Fixing Marketing One Truth at a Time by Morg...
[CXL Live 16] Growth Hacking BS: Fixing Marketing One Truth at a Time by Morg...
CXL
 
Infographic :: Critical Mistake Analysis by CognitiveArts
Infographic :: Critical Mistake Analysis by CognitiveArtsInfographic :: Critical Mistake Analysis by CognitiveArts
Infographic :: Critical Mistake Analysis by CognitiveArts
NIIT (USA), Inc.
 
Let customers appreciate the agile workflow
Let customers appreciate the agile workflowLet customers appreciate the agile workflow
Let customers appreciate the agile workflow
Steve Maraspin
 
AWS Summit Sydney 2014 | Reduce Risk in eCommerce Projects through Outcome Ba...
AWS Summit Sydney 2014 | Reduce Risk in eCommerce Projects through Outcome Ba...AWS Summit Sydney 2014 | Reduce Risk in eCommerce Projects through Outcome Ba...
AWS Summit Sydney 2014 | Reduce Risk in eCommerce Projects through Outcome Ba...
Amazon Web Services
 
Uncertainty and your brain
Uncertainty and your brainUncertainty and your brain
Uncertainty and your brain
Wayne Hetherington
 
The 80/20 strategic tool
The 80/20 strategic tool The 80/20 strategic tool
The 80/20 strategic tool
The Evans Group LLC
 
80 20 principal
80 20 principal80 20 principal
80 20 principal
UpgradedApe
 
Acorn 80 20 Principle
Acorn 80 20 PrincipleAcorn 80 20 Principle
Acorn 80 20 Principle
Game Plan Marketing
 
YES WE CAN: Innovating out of a recession (Dr. Norman Lewis)
YES WE CAN: Innovating out of a recession (Dr. Norman Lewis)YES WE CAN: Innovating out of a recession (Dr. Norman Lewis)
YES WE CAN: Innovating out of a recession (Dr. Norman Lewis)
LSx Festival of Technology
 
Condition Improvement Fund: Why Value for Money is the key
Condition Improvement Fund: Why Value for Money is the keyCondition Improvement Fund: Why Value for Money is the key
Condition Improvement Fund: Why Value for Money is the key
Tim Warneford
 
The platform effect: Rise of the marketplace economy in Asia Pacific
The platform effect: Rise of the marketplace economy in Asia PacificThe platform effect: Rise of the marketplace economy in Asia Pacific
The platform effect: Rise of the marketplace economy in Asia Pacific
Stripe
 
College Recruiter BootCamp Mountain View, CA
College Recruiter BootCamp Mountain View, CACollege Recruiter BootCamp Mountain View, CA
College Recruiter BootCamp Mountain View, CA
Rob Humphrey
 

What's hot (12)

[CXL Live 16] Growth Hacking BS: Fixing Marketing One Truth at a Time by Morg...
[CXL Live 16] Growth Hacking BS: Fixing Marketing One Truth at a Time by Morg...[CXL Live 16] Growth Hacking BS: Fixing Marketing One Truth at a Time by Morg...
[CXL Live 16] Growth Hacking BS: Fixing Marketing One Truth at a Time by Morg...
 
Infographic :: Critical Mistake Analysis by CognitiveArts
Infographic :: Critical Mistake Analysis by CognitiveArtsInfographic :: Critical Mistake Analysis by CognitiveArts
Infographic :: Critical Mistake Analysis by CognitiveArts
 
Let customers appreciate the agile workflow
Let customers appreciate the agile workflowLet customers appreciate the agile workflow
Let customers appreciate the agile workflow
 
AWS Summit Sydney 2014 | Reduce Risk in eCommerce Projects through Outcome Ba...
AWS Summit Sydney 2014 | Reduce Risk in eCommerce Projects through Outcome Ba...AWS Summit Sydney 2014 | Reduce Risk in eCommerce Projects through Outcome Ba...
AWS Summit Sydney 2014 | Reduce Risk in eCommerce Projects through Outcome Ba...
 
Uncertainty and your brain
Uncertainty and your brainUncertainty and your brain
Uncertainty and your brain
 
The 80/20 strategic tool
The 80/20 strategic tool The 80/20 strategic tool
The 80/20 strategic tool
 
80 20 principal
80 20 principal80 20 principal
80 20 principal
 
Acorn 80 20 Principle
Acorn 80 20 PrincipleAcorn 80 20 Principle
Acorn 80 20 Principle
 
YES WE CAN: Innovating out of a recession (Dr. Norman Lewis)
YES WE CAN: Innovating out of a recession (Dr. Norman Lewis)YES WE CAN: Innovating out of a recession (Dr. Norman Lewis)
YES WE CAN: Innovating out of a recession (Dr. Norman Lewis)
 
Condition Improvement Fund: Why Value for Money is the key
Condition Improvement Fund: Why Value for Money is the keyCondition Improvement Fund: Why Value for Money is the key
Condition Improvement Fund: Why Value for Money is the key
 
The platform effect: Rise of the marketplace economy in Asia Pacific
The platform effect: Rise of the marketplace economy in Asia PacificThe platform effect: Rise of the marketplace economy in Asia Pacific
The platform effect: Rise of the marketplace economy in Asia Pacific
 
College Recruiter BootCamp Mountain View, CA
College Recruiter BootCamp Mountain View, CACollege Recruiter BootCamp Mountain View, CA
College Recruiter BootCamp Mountain View, CA
 

Similar to 1555 track 3 lavoiecharland_using our laptop

CAPSIM- Baldwin Sensor Presentation - 1
CAPSIM- Baldwin Sensor Presentation - 1CAPSIM- Baldwin Sensor Presentation - 1
CAPSIM- Baldwin Sensor Presentation - 1
Felicia Fort, MBA
 
Reflecting on Marketing Accountability
Reflecting on Marketing AccountabilityReflecting on Marketing Accountability
Reflecting on Marketing Accountability
Alain Thys
 
Recession Proofing With Data : Webinar
Recession Proofing With Data : WebinarRecession Proofing With Data : Webinar
Recession Proofing With Data : Webinar
Gramener
 
ACMP 2015 - Change the Conversation, Change the Game - Prosci's Tim Creasey
ACMP 2015 - Change the Conversation, Change the Game - Prosci's Tim CreaseyACMP 2015 - Change the Conversation, Change the Game - Prosci's Tim Creasey
ACMP 2015 - Change the Conversation, Change the Game - Prosci's Tim Creasey
Tim Creasey
 
ACMP 2015 Presentation: Change the Conversation, Change the Game
ACMP 2015 Presentation: Change the Conversation, Change the GameACMP 2015 Presentation: Change the Conversation, Change the Game
ACMP 2015 Presentation: Change the Conversation, Change the Game
Tim Creasey
 
Outputs inline from "Change the Conversation, Change the Game" at ACMP 2015
Outputs inline from "Change the Conversation, Change the Game" at ACMP 2015Outputs inline from "Change the Conversation, Change the Game" at ACMP 2015
Outputs inline from "Change the Conversation, Change the Game" at ACMP 2015
Tim Creasey
 
'Recession-proofing' your Business with Data
'Recession-proofing' your Business with Data'Recession-proofing' your Business with Data
'Recession-proofing' your Business with Data
Ganes Kesari
 
UE Startups -- 9 Factors in Raising Funding in Silicon Valley
UE Startups -- 9 Factors in Raising Funding in Silicon ValleyUE Startups -- 9 Factors in Raising Funding in Silicon Valley
UE Startups -- 9 Factors in Raising Funding in Silicon Valley
Peter Szymanski
 
What's Next: The Great Customer Expectation Gap
What's Next: The Great Customer Expectation GapWhat's Next: The Great Customer Expectation Gap
What's Next: The Great Customer Expectation Gap
Ogilvy Consulting
 
Recession-proofing your business with data
Recession-proofing your business with dataRecession-proofing your business with data
Recession-proofing your business with data
Gramener
 
The Trouble with Innovation - TNS Sifo seminarium 2013
The Trouble with Innovation - TNS Sifo seminarium 2013The Trouble with Innovation - TNS Sifo seminarium 2013
The Trouble with Innovation - TNS Sifo seminarium 2013
Kantar Sifo
 
A cutting edge behavioural approach to achieving your contact centre’s object...
A cutting edge behavioural approach to achieving your contact centre’s object...A cutting edge behavioural approach to achieving your contact centre’s object...
A cutting edge behavioural approach to achieving your contact centre’s object...
Contact Centre Management Group
 
Owning Your View of Risk in a Changing Market
Owning Your View of Risk in a Changing MarketOwning Your View of Risk in a Changing Market
Owning Your View of Risk in a Changing Market
RMS
 
FORUM 2013 Risk Management influencing the balance sheet
FORUM 2013 Risk Management influencing the balance sheetFORUM 2013 Risk Management influencing the balance sheet
FORUM 2013 Risk Management influencing the balance sheet
FERMA
 
getSayDo - how to run a pilot - brand management service
getSayDo - how to run a pilot - brand management servicegetSayDo - how to run a pilot - brand management service
getSayDo - how to run a pilot - brand management service
getSayDo
 
Todd little - Risky Business | Real Options for Business Agility
Todd little -  Risky Business | Real Options for Business AgilityTodd little -  Risky Business | Real Options for Business Agility
Todd little - Risky Business | Real Options for Business Agility
Kanban Conferences
 
Investor presentation feb 2015 short version
Investor presentation feb 2015 short versionInvestor presentation feb 2015 short version
Investor presentation feb 2015 short version
TennantCorporation
 
Growth - How to create and manage it in your business
Growth - How to create and manage it in your businessGrowth - How to create and manage it in your business
Growth - How to create and manage it in your business
Russell Cummings
 
Optimizing Customer Experience - In House or Outsourced by Prof. Adré Schreuder
Optimizing Customer Experience - In House or Outsourced by Prof. Adré SchreuderOptimizing Customer Experience - In House or Outsourced by Prof. Adré Schreuder
Optimizing Customer Experience - In House or Outsourced by Prof. Adré Schreuder
ICX Kenya
 
Responding to the Impact of #Covid19 Pandemic & Economic Crisis and Beyond - ...
Responding to the Impact of #Covid19 Pandemic & Economic Crisis and Beyond - ...Responding to the Impact of #Covid19 Pandemic & Economic Crisis and Beyond - ...
Responding to the Impact of #Covid19 Pandemic & Economic Crisis and Beyond - ...
Richard Platt
 

Similar to 1555 track 3 lavoiecharland_using our laptop (20)

CAPSIM- Baldwin Sensor Presentation - 1
CAPSIM- Baldwin Sensor Presentation - 1CAPSIM- Baldwin Sensor Presentation - 1
CAPSIM- Baldwin Sensor Presentation - 1
 
Reflecting on Marketing Accountability
Reflecting on Marketing AccountabilityReflecting on Marketing Accountability
Reflecting on Marketing Accountability
 
Recession Proofing With Data : Webinar
Recession Proofing With Data : WebinarRecession Proofing With Data : Webinar
Recession Proofing With Data : Webinar
 
ACMP 2015 - Change the Conversation, Change the Game - Prosci's Tim Creasey
ACMP 2015 - Change the Conversation, Change the Game - Prosci's Tim CreaseyACMP 2015 - Change the Conversation, Change the Game - Prosci's Tim Creasey
ACMP 2015 - Change the Conversation, Change the Game - Prosci's Tim Creasey
 
ACMP 2015 Presentation: Change the Conversation, Change the Game
ACMP 2015 Presentation: Change the Conversation, Change the GameACMP 2015 Presentation: Change the Conversation, Change the Game
ACMP 2015 Presentation: Change the Conversation, Change the Game
 
Outputs inline from "Change the Conversation, Change the Game" at ACMP 2015
Outputs inline from "Change the Conversation, Change the Game" at ACMP 2015Outputs inline from "Change the Conversation, Change the Game" at ACMP 2015
Outputs inline from "Change the Conversation, Change the Game" at ACMP 2015
 
'Recession-proofing' your Business with Data
'Recession-proofing' your Business with Data'Recession-proofing' your Business with Data
'Recession-proofing' your Business with Data
 
UE Startups -- 9 Factors in Raising Funding in Silicon Valley
UE Startups -- 9 Factors in Raising Funding in Silicon ValleyUE Startups -- 9 Factors in Raising Funding in Silicon Valley
UE Startups -- 9 Factors in Raising Funding in Silicon Valley
 
What's Next: The Great Customer Expectation Gap
What's Next: The Great Customer Expectation GapWhat's Next: The Great Customer Expectation Gap
What's Next: The Great Customer Expectation Gap
 
Recession-proofing your business with data
Recession-proofing your business with dataRecession-proofing your business with data
Recession-proofing your business with data
 
The Trouble with Innovation - TNS Sifo seminarium 2013
The Trouble with Innovation - TNS Sifo seminarium 2013The Trouble with Innovation - TNS Sifo seminarium 2013
The Trouble with Innovation - TNS Sifo seminarium 2013
 
A cutting edge behavioural approach to achieving your contact centre’s object...
A cutting edge behavioural approach to achieving your contact centre’s object...A cutting edge behavioural approach to achieving your contact centre’s object...
A cutting edge behavioural approach to achieving your contact centre’s object...
 
Owning Your View of Risk in a Changing Market
Owning Your View of Risk in a Changing MarketOwning Your View of Risk in a Changing Market
Owning Your View of Risk in a Changing Market
 
FORUM 2013 Risk Management influencing the balance sheet
FORUM 2013 Risk Management influencing the balance sheetFORUM 2013 Risk Management influencing the balance sheet
FORUM 2013 Risk Management influencing the balance sheet
 
getSayDo - how to run a pilot - brand management service
getSayDo - how to run a pilot - brand management servicegetSayDo - how to run a pilot - brand management service
getSayDo - how to run a pilot - brand management service
 
Todd little - Risky Business | Real Options for Business Agility
Todd little -  Risky Business | Real Options for Business AgilityTodd little -  Risky Business | Real Options for Business Agility
Todd little - Risky Business | Real Options for Business Agility
 
Investor presentation feb 2015 short version
Investor presentation feb 2015 short versionInvestor presentation feb 2015 short version
Investor presentation feb 2015 short version
 
Growth - How to create and manage it in your business
Growth - How to create and manage it in your businessGrowth - How to create and manage it in your business
Growth - How to create and manage it in your business
 
Optimizing Customer Experience - In House or Outsourced by Prof. Adré Schreuder
Optimizing Customer Experience - In House or Outsourced by Prof. Adré SchreuderOptimizing Customer Experience - In House or Outsourced by Prof. Adré Schreuder
Optimizing Customer Experience - In House or Outsourced by Prof. Adré Schreuder
 
Responding to the Impact of #Covid19 Pandemic & Economic Crisis and Beyond - ...
Responding to the Impact of #Covid19 Pandemic & Economic Crisis and Beyond - ...Responding to the Impact of #Covid19 Pandemic & Economic Crisis and Beyond - ...
Responding to the Impact of #Covid19 Pandemic & Economic Crisis and Beyond - ...
 

More from Rising Media, Inc.

1415 track 1 wu_using his laptop
1415 track 1 wu_using his laptop1415 track 1 wu_using his laptop
1415 track 1 wu_using his laptop
Rising Media, Inc.
 
Matt gershoff
Matt gershoffMatt gershoff
Matt gershoff
Rising Media, Inc.
 
Keynote adam greco
Keynote adam grecoKeynote adam greco
Keynote adam greco
Rising Media, Inc.
 
1620 keynote olson_using our laptop
1620 keynote olson_using our laptop1620 keynote olson_using our laptop
1620 keynote olson_using our laptop
Rising Media, Inc.
 
1530 track 2 stuart_using our laptop
1530 track 2 stuart_using our laptop1530 track 2 stuart_using our laptop
1530 track 2 stuart_using our laptop
Rising Media, Inc.
 
1530 track 1 fader_using our laptop
1530 track 1 fader_using our laptop1530 track 1 fader_using our laptop
1530 track 1 fader_using our laptop
Rising Media, Inc.
 
1415 track 2 richardson
1415 track 2 richardson1415 track 2 richardson
1415 track 2 richardson
Rising Media, Inc.
 
1215 daa lunch owusu_using our laptop
1215 daa lunch owusu_using our laptop1215 daa lunch owusu_using our laptop
1215 daa lunch owusu_using our laptop
Rising Media, Inc.
 
1215 daa lunch a bos intro slides_using our laptop
1215 daa lunch a bos intro slides_using our laptop1215 daa lunch a bos intro slides_using our laptop
1215 daa lunch a bos intro slides_using our laptop
Rising Media, Inc.
 
915 e metrics_claudia perlich
915 e metrics_claudia perlich915 e metrics_claudia perlich
915 e metrics_claudia perlich
Rising Media, Inc.
 
855 sponsor movassate_using our laptop
855 sponsor movassate_using our laptop855 sponsor movassate_using our laptop
855 sponsor movassate_using our laptop
Rising Media, Inc.
 
1615 plack using our laptop
1615 plack using our laptop1615 plack using our laptop
1615 plack using our laptop
Rising Media, Inc.
 
1530 rimmele do not share
1530 rimmele do not share1530 rimmele do not share
1530 rimmele do not share
Rising Media, Inc.
 
1325 keynote yale_pdf shareable
1325 keynote yale_pdf shareable1325 keynote yale_pdf shareable
1325 keynote yale_pdf shareable
Rising Media, Inc.
 
1115 fiztgerald schuchardt
1115 fiztgerald schuchardt1115 fiztgerald schuchardt
1115 fiztgerald schuchardt
Rising Media, Inc.
 
1000 kondic do not share
1000 kondic do not share1000 kondic do not share
1000 kondic do not share
Rising Media, Inc.
 
905 keynote peele_using our laptop
905 keynote peele_using our laptop905 keynote peele_using our laptop
905 keynote peele_using our laptop
Rising Media, Inc.
 
Stephen morse sharable
Stephen morse sharableStephen morse sharable
Stephen morse sharable
Rising Media, Inc.
 
Elder shareable
Elder shareableElder shareable
Elder shareable
Rising Media, Inc.
 
1115 ramirez using our laptop
1115 ramirez using our laptop1115 ramirez using our laptop
1115 ramirez using our laptop
Rising Media, Inc.
 

More from Rising Media, Inc. (20)

1415 track 1 wu_using his laptop
1415 track 1 wu_using his laptop1415 track 1 wu_using his laptop
1415 track 1 wu_using his laptop
 
Matt gershoff
Matt gershoffMatt gershoff
Matt gershoff
 
Keynote adam greco
Keynote adam grecoKeynote adam greco
Keynote adam greco
 
1620 keynote olson_using our laptop
1620 keynote olson_using our laptop1620 keynote olson_using our laptop
1620 keynote olson_using our laptop
 
1530 track 2 stuart_using our laptop
1530 track 2 stuart_using our laptop1530 track 2 stuart_using our laptop
1530 track 2 stuart_using our laptop
 
1530 track 1 fader_using our laptop
1530 track 1 fader_using our laptop1530 track 1 fader_using our laptop
1530 track 1 fader_using our laptop
 
1415 track 2 richardson
1415 track 2 richardson1415 track 2 richardson
1415 track 2 richardson
 
1215 daa lunch owusu_using our laptop
1215 daa lunch owusu_using our laptop1215 daa lunch owusu_using our laptop
1215 daa lunch owusu_using our laptop
 
1215 daa lunch a bos intro slides_using our laptop
1215 daa lunch a bos intro slides_using our laptop1215 daa lunch a bos intro slides_using our laptop
1215 daa lunch a bos intro slides_using our laptop
 
915 e metrics_claudia perlich
915 e metrics_claudia perlich915 e metrics_claudia perlich
915 e metrics_claudia perlich
 
855 sponsor movassate_using our laptop
855 sponsor movassate_using our laptop855 sponsor movassate_using our laptop
855 sponsor movassate_using our laptop
 
1615 plack using our laptop
1615 plack using our laptop1615 plack using our laptop
1615 plack using our laptop
 
1530 rimmele do not share
1530 rimmele do not share1530 rimmele do not share
1530 rimmele do not share
 
1325 keynote yale_pdf shareable
1325 keynote yale_pdf shareable1325 keynote yale_pdf shareable
1325 keynote yale_pdf shareable
 
1115 fiztgerald schuchardt
1115 fiztgerald schuchardt1115 fiztgerald schuchardt
1115 fiztgerald schuchardt
 
1000 kondic do not share
1000 kondic do not share1000 kondic do not share
1000 kondic do not share
 
905 keynote peele_using our laptop
905 keynote peele_using our laptop905 keynote peele_using our laptop
905 keynote peele_using our laptop
 
Stephen morse sharable
Stephen morse sharableStephen morse sharable
Stephen morse sharable
 
Elder shareable
Elder shareableElder shareable
Elder shareable
 
1115 ramirez using our laptop
1115 ramirez using our laptop1115 ramirez using our laptop
1115 ramirez using our laptop
 

Recently uploaded

Drownings spike from May to August in children
Drownings spike from May to August in childrenDrownings spike from May to August in children
Drownings spike from May to August in children
Bisnar Chase Personal Injury Attorneys
 
一比一原版(lbs毕业证书)伦敦商学院毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(lbs毕业证书)伦敦商学院毕业证如何办理一比一原版(lbs毕业证书)伦敦商学院毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(lbs毕业证书)伦敦商学院毕业证如何办理
ywqeos
 
06-18-2024-Princeton Meetup-Introduction to Milvus
06-18-2024-Princeton Meetup-Introduction to Milvus06-18-2024-Princeton Meetup-Introduction to Milvus
06-18-2024-Princeton Meetup-Introduction to Milvus
Timothy Spann
 
Call Girls Lucknow 0000000000 Independent Call Girl Service Lucknow
Call Girls Lucknow 0000000000 Independent Call Girl Service LucknowCall Girls Lucknow 0000000000 Independent Call Girl Service Lucknow
Call Girls Lucknow 0000000000 Independent Call Girl Service Lucknow
hiju9823
 
[VCOSA] Monthly Report - Cotton & Yarn Statistics March 2024
[VCOSA] Monthly Report - Cotton & Yarn Statistics March 2024[VCOSA] Monthly Report - Cotton & Yarn Statistics March 2024
[VCOSA] Monthly Report - Cotton & Yarn Statistics March 2024
Vietnam Cotton & Spinning Association
 
Telemetry Solution for Gaming (AWS Summit'24)
Telemetry Solution for Gaming (AWS Summit'24)Telemetry Solution for Gaming (AWS Summit'24)
Telemetry Solution for Gaming (AWS Summit'24)
GeorgiiSteshenko
 
PyData London 2024: Mistakes were made (Dr. Rebecca Bilbro)
PyData London 2024: Mistakes were made (Dr. Rebecca Bilbro)PyData London 2024: Mistakes were made (Dr. Rebecca Bilbro)
PyData London 2024: Mistakes were made (Dr. Rebecca Bilbro)
Rebecca Bilbro
 
一比一原版(uom毕业证书)曼彻斯特大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(uom毕业证书)曼彻斯特大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(uom毕业证书)曼彻斯特大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(uom毕业证书)曼彻斯特大学毕业证如何办理
osoyvvf
 
SAP BW4HANA Implementagtion Content Document
SAP BW4HANA Implementagtion Content DocumentSAP BW4HANA Implementagtion Content Document
SAP BW4HANA Implementagtion Content Document
newdirectionconsulta
 
一比一原版卡尔加里大学毕业证(uc毕业证)如何办理
一比一原版卡尔加里大学毕业证(uc毕业证)如何办理一比一原版卡尔加里大学毕业证(uc毕业证)如何办理
一比一原版卡尔加里大学毕业证(uc毕业证)如何办理
oaxefes
 
CAP Excel Formulas & Functions July - Copy (4).pdf
CAP Excel Formulas & Functions July - Copy (4).pdfCAP Excel Formulas & Functions July - Copy (4).pdf
CAP Excel Formulas & Functions July - Copy (4).pdf
frp60658
 
Do People Really Know Their Fertility Intentions? Correspondence between Sel...
Do People Really Know Their Fertility Intentions?  Correspondence between Sel...Do People Really Know Their Fertility Intentions?  Correspondence between Sel...
Do People Really Know Their Fertility Intentions? Correspondence between Sel...
Xiao Xu
 
一比一原版英国赫特福德大学毕业证(hertfordshire毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版英国赫特福德大学毕业证(hertfordshire毕业证书)如何办理一比一原版英国赫特福德大学毕业证(hertfordshire毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版英国赫特福德大学毕业证(hertfordshire毕业证书)如何办理
nyvan3
 
High Profile Call Girls Navi Mumbai ✅ 9833363713 FULL CASH PAYMENT
High Profile Call Girls Navi Mumbai ✅ 9833363713 FULL CASH PAYMENTHigh Profile Call Girls Navi Mumbai ✅ 9833363713 FULL CASH PAYMENT
High Profile Call Girls Navi Mumbai ✅ 9833363713 FULL CASH PAYMENT
ranjeet3341
 
Call Girls Goa👉9024918724👉Low Rate Escorts in Goa 💃 Available 24/7
Call Girls Goa👉9024918724👉Low Rate Escorts in Goa 💃 Available 24/7Call Girls Goa👉9024918724👉Low Rate Escorts in Goa 💃 Available 24/7
Call Girls Goa👉9024918724👉Low Rate Escorts in Goa 💃 Available 24/7
nitachopra
 
Bangalore ℂall Girl 000000 Bangalore Escorts Service
Bangalore ℂall Girl 000000 Bangalore Escorts ServiceBangalore ℂall Girl 000000 Bangalore Escorts Service
Bangalore ℂall Girl 000000 Bangalore Escorts Service
nhero3888
 
一比一原版莱斯大学毕业证(rice毕业证)如何办理
一比一原版莱斯大学毕业证(rice毕业证)如何办理一比一原版莱斯大学毕业证(rice毕业证)如何办理
一比一原版莱斯大学毕业证(rice毕业证)如何办理
zsafxbf
 
一比一原版加拿大渥太华大学毕业证(uottawa毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版加拿大渥太华大学毕业证(uottawa毕业证书)如何办理一比一原版加拿大渥太华大学毕业证(uottawa毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版加拿大渥太华大学毕业证(uottawa毕业证书)如何办理
uevausa
 
一比一原版多伦多大学毕业证(UofT毕业证书)学历如何办理
一比一原版多伦多大学毕业证(UofT毕业证书)学历如何办理一比一原版多伦多大学毕业证(UofT毕业证书)学历如何办理
一比一原版多伦多大学毕业证(UofT毕业证书)学历如何办理
eoxhsaa
 
一比一原版(曼大毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(曼大毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(曼大毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(曼大毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证如何办理
ytypuem
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Drownings spike from May to August in children
Drownings spike from May to August in childrenDrownings spike from May to August in children
Drownings spike from May to August in children
 
一比一原版(lbs毕业证书)伦敦商学院毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(lbs毕业证书)伦敦商学院毕业证如何办理一比一原版(lbs毕业证书)伦敦商学院毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(lbs毕业证书)伦敦商学院毕业证如何办理
 
06-18-2024-Princeton Meetup-Introduction to Milvus
06-18-2024-Princeton Meetup-Introduction to Milvus06-18-2024-Princeton Meetup-Introduction to Milvus
06-18-2024-Princeton Meetup-Introduction to Milvus
 
Call Girls Lucknow 0000000000 Independent Call Girl Service Lucknow
Call Girls Lucknow 0000000000 Independent Call Girl Service LucknowCall Girls Lucknow 0000000000 Independent Call Girl Service Lucknow
Call Girls Lucknow 0000000000 Independent Call Girl Service Lucknow
 
[VCOSA] Monthly Report - Cotton & Yarn Statistics March 2024
[VCOSA] Monthly Report - Cotton & Yarn Statistics March 2024[VCOSA] Monthly Report - Cotton & Yarn Statistics March 2024
[VCOSA] Monthly Report - Cotton & Yarn Statistics March 2024
 
Telemetry Solution for Gaming (AWS Summit'24)
Telemetry Solution for Gaming (AWS Summit'24)Telemetry Solution for Gaming (AWS Summit'24)
Telemetry Solution for Gaming (AWS Summit'24)
 
PyData London 2024: Mistakes were made (Dr. Rebecca Bilbro)
PyData London 2024: Mistakes were made (Dr. Rebecca Bilbro)PyData London 2024: Mistakes were made (Dr. Rebecca Bilbro)
PyData London 2024: Mistakes were made (Dr. Rebecca Bilbro)
 
一比一原版(uom毕业证书)曼彻斯特大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(uom毕业证书)曼彻斯特大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(uom毕业证书)曼彻斯特大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(uom毕业证书)曼彻斯特大学毕业证如何办理
 
SAP BW4HANA Implementagtion Content Document
SAP BW4HANA Implementagtion Content DocumentSAP BW4HANA Implementagtion Content Document
SAP BW4HANA Implementagtion Content Document
 
一比一原版卡尔加里大学毕业证(uc毕业证)如何办理
一比一原版卡尔加里大学毕业证(uc毕业证)如何办理一比一原版卡尔加里大学毕业证(uc毕业证)如何办理
一比一原版卡尔加里大学毕业证(uc毕业证)如何办理
 
CAP Excel Formulas & Functions July - Copy (4).pdf
CAP Excel Formulas & Functions July - Copy (4).pdfCAP Excel Formulas & Functions July - Copy (4).pdf
CAP Excel Formulas & Functions July - Copy (4).pdf
 
Do People Really Know Their Fertility Intentions? Correspondence between Sel...
Do People Really Know Their Fertility Intentions?  Correspondence between Sel...Do People Really Know Their Fertility Intentions?  Correspondence between Sel...
Do People Really Know Their Fertility Intentions? Correspondence between Sel...
 
一比一原版英国赫特福德大学毕业证(hertfordshire毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版英国赫特福德大学毕业证(hertfordshire毕业证书)如何办理一比一原版英国赫特福德大学毕业证(hertfordshire毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版英国赫特福德大学毕业证(hertfordshire毕业证书)如何办理
 
High Profile Call Girls Navi Mumbai ✅ 9833363713 FULL CASH PAYMENT
High Profile Call Girls Navi Mumbai ✅ 9833363713 FULL CASH PAYMENTHigh Profile Call Girls Navi Mumbai ✅ 9833363713 FULL CASH PAYMENT
High Profile Call Girls Navi Mumbai ✅ 9833363713 FULL CASH PAYMENT
 
Call Girls Goa👉9024918724👉Low Rate Escorts in Goa 💃 Available 24/7
Call Girls Goa👉9024918724👉Low Rate Escorts in Goa 💃 Available 24/7Call Girls Goa👉9024918724👉Low Rate Escorts in Goa 💃 Available 24/7
Call Girls Goa👉9024918724👉Low Rate Escorts in Goa 💃 Available 24/7
 
Bangalore ℂall Girl 000000 Bangalore Escorts Service
Bangalore ℂall Girl 000000 Bangalore Escorts ServiceBangalore ℂall Girl 000000 Bangalore Escorts Service
Bangalore ℂall Girl 000000 Bangalore Escorts Service
 
一比一原版莱斯大学毕业证(rice毕业证)如何办理
一比一原版莱斯大学毕业证(rice毕业证)如何办理一比一原版莱斯大学毕业证(rice毕业证)如何办理
一比一原版莱斯大学毕业证(rice毕业证)如何办理
 
一比一原版加拿大渥太华大学毕业证(uottawa毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版加拿大渥太华大学毕业证(uottawa毕业证书)如何办理一比一原版加拿大渥太华大学毕业证(uottawa毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版加拿大渥太华大学毕业证(uottawa毕业证书)如何办理
 
一比一原版多伦多大学毕业证(UofT毕业证书)学历如何办理
一比一原版多伦多大学毕业证(UofT毕业证书)学历如何办理一比一原版多伦多大学毕业证(UofT毕业证书)学历如何办理
一比一原版多伦多大学毕业证(UofT毕业证书)学历如何办理
 
一比一原版(曼大毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(曼大毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(曼大毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(曼大毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证如何办理
 

1555 track 3 lavoiecharland_using our laptop

  • 1. WHICH PREDICTIVE MODEL WILL BEST HELP INCREASE RETENTION? PAW BUSINESS, OCTOBER 30TH 2017, NEWYORK EMILIE LAVOIE-CHARLAND, DATA SCIENTIST AND RESEARCH & INNOVATION CONSULTANT,THE CO-OPERATORS
  • 2. AGENDA  Insurance 101  The problem  Survival Analysis Solution  True Lift Solution  Take Aways 2
  • 6. HOW CAN WE INCREASE HOUSEHOLD RETENTION? THAT IS THE PROBLEM!
  • 7. WHY CARE ABOUT RETENTION? A R 7
  • 8. 8 WHATWE KNOW AT COOPERATORS
  • 9. WHATWE CAN USE  Potential predictive solutions  Survival analysis –When will a Household leave?  GLM logistic –Which Households Leave?  Multinomial regression –What happens after a Client Review?  True-Lift modeling –Which Household can we influence? 9
  • 10. OUR EXPERIENCE 10 2016-04-31 --------------- 2016-01-05 --------------- 2016-05-15 --------------- Survival
  • 11. OUR EXPERIENCE 11 2016-04-31 --------------- 2016-01-05 --------------- 2016-05-15 --------------- Survival True-Lift ----------------- 2016-10-31 ---------------- 2016-08-08 ----------------- 2016-10-15
  • 12. SURVIVAL ANALYSIS WHENWILL A HOUSEHOLD LEAVE?
  • 13. WHY USE SURVIVAL ANALYSIS? 13
  • 14. WHY SURVIVAL ANALYSIS AND NOT GLM? GLM – logistic Which household leaves?  P(yes) is simple to explain  Insurance, Marketing …  Snapshot  Simple extraction  No time-dependence Survival Analysis When will a household leave?  Hazards are complex to explain  Medicine,Warranty …  Continuous view  Complex extraction  Time-dependence 14
  • 15. WHY SURVIVAL ANALYSIS AND NOT GLM? GLM – logistic Which household leaves?  P(yes) is simple to explain  Insurance, Marketing …  Snapshot  Simple extraction  No time-dependence Survival Analysis When will a household leave?  Hazards are complex to explain  Medicine,Warranty …  Continuous view  Complex extraction  Time-dependence 15
  • 17. IMPLEMENTATION  Agency super list  Target households  Agent meets with clients Risk Category HH Percent (BHF) A 7.1% B 6.9% C 10.8% D 13.9% E 8.9% F 52.4% Risk category A Low tenure – New business Young clients Single product 17
  • 18. 18
  • 19. 19
  • 20. TRUE LIFT MODELING WHICH HOUSEHOLD CAN WE INFLUENCE?
  • 21. WHY USE TRUE-LIFT MODELING? 21 Target Non-Target Prediction
  • 22. WHYTRUE-LIFT AND NOT SURVIVAL? Survival Analysis When will a household leave?  Profile with lower survival  Y = intensity  Continuous view  Time-dependence  Trigger events True-Lift Which Household can we influence?  Profile with higher response  Y = lift  Snapshot  No time-dependence  Impact of an event 22
  • 23. WHYTRUE-LIFT AND NOT SURVIVAL? Survival Analysis When will a household leave?  Profile with lower survival  Y = intensity  Continuous view  Time-dependence  Trigger events True-Lift Which Household can we influence?  Profile with higher response  Y = lift  Snapshot  No time-dependence  Impact of an event 23
  • 25. 25
  • 26. 26
  • 27. TAKE AWAYS WHICH APPROACH SHOULD WE USE?
  • 28. INSURANCE 101 Does not always receive training. Does not have time to plan. Mostly reacts, does not initiate.
  • 29. TAKE AWAYS  True-lift and Survival Analysis : two distinct questions.  Question the model you use.  Best model ≠ best results.  Study of retention = business process knowledge  Change management is critical!  Businesses evolve quickly – follow model performance! 29