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3rd Annual Mongolia – Trade and Commodity Finance Conference
Mongolia’s promise of mineral wealth
2
Contents
1. Global Mining – Macro
2. Near Term Outlook for Mongolia
3. Medium Term Outlook for Met Coal and Copper
4. Capital Markets
5. Attracting more investment
6. What ING can offer
Global Mining – Macro
Weakening as demand remains sluggish and supply catches up
4
China’s growth has slowed...
Source: EMED data service, ING Bank
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1992CNYbillions
Actual
1Q94-4Q01 Trend (8.7% growth)
1Q02-3Q08 Trend (11.5% growth)
1Q11-1Q14 Trend (7.7% growth)
China – Real GDP – Seasonally Adjusted
8
16
32
64
128
256
512
1024
2048
Post-WWII to
first oil shock
(9.2% growth)
Source: Bloomberg, ING Bank
Global Trade, US$ billions, 3 mma, log scale
Oil
Shocks
Volcker
Recession
Reagan
Boom to
Asian Crisis
(9.5% growth)
China
joins
WTO
(17%)
GFC
and
QE
911
SARS
Tech
boom
bust
SARS
5
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Iron Ore
(seaborne)
Iron Ore
(total)
Met Coal
(seaborne)
Met Coal
(total)
Lead
Aluminium
Copper
Nickel
Crude Oil
LNG
2006
2009
2012
2015
but expansion plans seem to have overshot
Source: UBS
China drives demand for commodities Supply has finally caught up (global supply growth since 2006)
-0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1
Iron Ore (seaborne)
Iron Ore (total)
Met Coal (seaborne)
Met Coal (total)
Lead
Aluminium
Copper
Nickel
Crude Oil
LNG
'06-'09
'06-'12
'06-'15
Source: IEA, CRU, UBS
Near term outlook
Exports and FDI remain under pressure
7
with prices are falling into the cost curve
Source: Bloomberg, GS, UBS
Copper Price relative to cost curve in USD / ton Seaborne Metallurgical Coal Price relative to cost curve in USD / ton
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2006 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014
C1 Cash Cost 75th percentile
C1 Cash Cost 90th percentile
90th percentile Sustaining Costs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2006 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014
C1 Cash Cost 75th percentile
C1 Cash Cost 90th percentile
Sustaining Cash Costs
Source: WoodMackenzie, Bloomberg
8
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2010 2011 2012 2013
Consumption
Investment
Net Exports
Weaker prices and exports, and lower FDI
Source: EMED data service, ING Bank
Mongolia – Sources of GDP Growth – in %
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mongolia - Reserve Money Growth - in % Mongolia – International Reserves – in USDm
Outlook
Copper and Metallurgical Coal – medium term
10
Met Coal – limited structural upside
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Surplus/Deficit Benchmark Forecast
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan/11 Jun/12 Oct/13 Mar/15 Jul/16
Chinese Imports - in million tons per month Will this further displace Mongolian Metallurgical Coal?
Market Position Seaborne Coking Coal– million tons per annum
Source: Chinese Customs
Source: AME, Analyst Concensus Source: Anglo American Mongolia, Analyst Concensus
11
Copper – ST downside, structural support
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CCFD SHFE Comex
LME Copper Price
Copper Inventories – high but reducing – in days of production
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Capex Spend
Supply Growth
Copper Production – Significant Expansion Growth
0 5,000 10,000 15,000
-5,000
-3,000
-1,000
1,000
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
But Supported by the cash cost curve
Capital Markets
Strong Bank Liquidity – weak equity markets
13
Drop in prices is hurting valuations
Source: ING, Bloomberg
Equity Valuations by Commodity Class - in % from 2010 peak
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014
BBG World Coal Equity Index
Gold Equities
Copper Equities
Iron Ore Equities
2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010
14
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
4/1/2008
7/1/2008
10/1/2008
1/1/2009
4/1/2009
7/1/2009
10/1/2009
1/1/2010
4/1/2010
7/1/2010
10/1/2010
1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011
10/1/2011
1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012
10/1/2012
1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013
10/1/2013
1/1/2014
putting the exploration sector on life support
Source: SNL Metal Strategies 2014
Total Equity Raised for the mining sector – in USD million (TSX, ASX) Global Exploration Spending - in USD billion
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Source: SNL Metal Strategies
Equity market
effectively closed
15
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
Mines Closed Pre-Feasibility on Hold Feasibility Cancelled New Mines Pre Feasibility Feasibility Studies
and halting new mine development studies
Source: SNL Metal Strategies 2014
Newly added in situ resources by value - in USD million
Hardly any
feasibility work
16
but Bank market liquidity remains strong
Source: Dealogic
Total Metals & Mining Bank Debt Volumes, USD million
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
EMEA Asia Americas Deals
Preparing for the next cycle
Market perception and sentiment will be key
18
Mongolia – lost the hype?
19
Obvious potential for mineral wealth...
Plenty of Potential – Geological Potential
Mongolia
Source: 2012/2013 Fraser Institute Ranking of Potential
Mongolia
Held back by regulatory environment – Policy Perception
20
...but realising that requires a reliable partner
Mine development nowadays takes in excess of 10 years from discovery
81st37th 49th36th52nd
Purported Erdenet Default on SB loan
SEFIL / Southgobi
Chalco Dispute On TT prepay
New Mining Law
Suspension of exploration licenses
Desire to renegotiate the OT investment agreement
Khan / ARMZ sage – in arbitration
OT Investment Agreement
AwardedTT IPO Process, partner search
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
??
OT Financing Agreed OT Financing Delayed
Suspended
What ING can do and can provide
Senior Debt across the spectrum for mining companies
ING April 2014 22
Lending
Advise, structure senior debt
Non - Lending Advisory
Iceland, Aluminium
Pre-structuring advisor for Helguvik
aluminium smelter
Project Financing (large and small)
UK, Hemerdon, Tungsten
GBP 75mln project financing, MLA,
Technical Agent and hedging bank
Hybrid Debt
West Africa, Gold
USD 350m revolving credit facility,
joint MLA and hedging bank
Pre Export Financing
EU/US/Africa, Base Metals
USD 600m syndicated credit facility,
joint MLA
Acquisition Debt
Australia, GS Coal, Coal
USD 550m acquisition finance, MLA
(financial close expected)
Kazakhstan, Base Metals (Copper)
USD 1bn pre-export finance, MLA and
security agent
Example dealProduct
Increasing
complexity, tenor,
# parties involved,
and / or
preparation time
Structured Corporate Debt
Mongolia, Oyu Tolgoi, Copper & Gold
USD 6bn project financing, MLA
(committed)
ING April 2014 23
Advise, structure senior debt
Development FundingMine in Production
Technical Due Diligence Mine Plan, operating costs, sustaining capex
Environmental Plans, reviewed by ESR consultantEnvironmental Due Diligence Equator Principles, ESIA, and Action Plans
Class I Feasibility Study, capital costing, equipment
strategy
Offtake Agreements Clear Volume and Pricing Basis
Repayment Offshore, withheld from exports Offshore flowing into a controlled waterfall,
Clear Volume / Pricing Basis, tenor exceeding loan
Tenor Up to 3 years Up to 12 years, depending on ECA cover eligibility
Debt Sizing Full payout, Leverage not to exceed 2.0x EBITDA Full payout, Leverage not to exceed 2.0x EBITDA
Price Assumptions Low minus 10% Base Case – based on Market DD
Providers Banks and Traders Banks, ECAs, Multilaterals
Questions?

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13.05.2014 Mongolia’s promise of mineral wealth, Arnout Van Heukelem

  • 1. 3rd Annual Mongolia – Trade and Commodity Finance Conference Mongolia’s promise of mineral wealth
  • 2. 2 Contents 1. Global Mining – Macro 2. Near Term Outlook for Mongolia 3. Medium Term Outlook for Met Coal and Copper 4. Capital Markets 5. Attracting more investment 6. What ING can offer
  • 3. Global Mining – Macro Weakening as demand remains sluggish and supply catches up
  • 4. 4 China’s growth has slowed... Source: EMED data service, ING Bank 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 1992CNYbillions Actual 1Q94-4Q01 Trend (8.7% growth) 1Q02-3Q08 Trend (11.5% growth) 1Q11-1Q14 Trend (7.7% growth) China – Real GDP – Seasonally Adjusted 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2048 Post-WWII to first oil shock (9.2% growth) Source: Bloomberg, ING Bank Global Trade, US$ billions, 3 mma, log scale Oil Shocks Volcker Recession Reagan Boom to Asian Crisis (9.5% growth) China joins WTO (17%) GFC and QE 911 SARS Tech boom bust SARS
  • 5. 5 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Iron Ore (seaborne) Iron Ore (total) Met Coal (seaborne) Met Coal (total) Lead Aluminium Copper Nickel Crude Oil LNG 2006 2009 2012 2015 but expansion plans seem to have overshot Source: UBS China drives demand for commodities Supply has finally caught up (global supply growth since 2006) -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 Iron Ore (seaborne) Iron Ore (total) Met Coal (seaborne) Met Coal (total) Lead Aluminium Copper Nickel Crude Oil LNG '06-'09 '06-'12 '06-'15 Source: IEA, CRU, UBS
  • 6. Near term outlook Exports and FDI remain under pressure
  • 7. 7 with prices are falling into the cost curve Source: Bloomberg, GS, UBS Copper Price relative to cost curve in USD / ton Seaborne Metallurgical Coal Price relative to cost curve in USD / ton 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2006 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 C1 Cash Cost 75th percentile C1 Cash Cost 90th percentile 90th percentile Sustaining Costs 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2006 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 C1 Cash Cost 75th percentile C1 Cash Cost 90th percentile Sustaining Cash Costs Source: WoodMackenzie, Bloomberg
  • 8. 8 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 2010 2011 2012 2013 Consumption Investment Net Exports Weaker prices and exports, and lower FDI Source: EMED data service, ING Bank Mongolia – Sources of GDP Growth – in % 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mongolia - Reserve Money Growth - in % Mongolia – International Reserves – in USDm
  • 9. Outlook Copper and Metallurgical Coal – medium term
  • 10. 10 Met Coal – limited structural upside 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 -5 0 5 10 15 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Surplus/Deficit Benchmark Forecast 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan/11 Jun/12 Oct/13 Mar/15 Jul/16 Chinese Imports - in million tons per month Will this further displace Mongolian Metallurgical Coal? Market Position Seaborne Coking Coal– million tons per annum Source: Chinese Customs Source: AME, Analyst Concensus Source: Anglo American Mongolia, Analyst Concensus
  • 11. 11 Copper – ST downside, structural support - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 - 5 10 15 20 25 30 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CCFD SHFE Comex LME Copper Price Copper Inventories – high but reducing – in days of production 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F Capex Spend Supply Growth Copper Production – Significant Expansion Growth 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 -5,000 -3,000 -1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 But Supported by the cash cost curve
  • 12. Capital Markets Strong Bank Liquidity – weak equity markets
  • 13. 13 Drop in prices is hurting valuations Source: ING, Bloomberg Equity Valuations by Commodity Class - in % from 2010 peak -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 BBG World Coal Equity Index Gold Equities Copper Equities Iron Ore Equities 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010
  • 14. 14 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 4/1/2008 7/1/2008 10/1/2008 1/1/2009 4/1/2009 7/1/2009 10/1/2009 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/2010 10/1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/2011 10/1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/2012 10/1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/2013 10/1/2013 1/1/2014 putting the exploration sector on life support Source: SNL Metal Strategies 2014 Total Equity Raised for the mining sector – in USD million (TSX, ASX) Global Exploration Spending - in USD billion 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Source: SNL Metal Strategies Equity market effectively closed
  • 15. 15 -500 -300 -100 100 300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 1,500 Mines Closed Pre-Feasibility on Hold Feasibility Cancelled New Mines Pre Feasibility Feasibility Studies and halting new mine development studies Source: SNL Metal Strategies 2014 Newly added in situ resources by value - in USD million Hardly any feasibility work
  • 16. 16 but Bank market liquidity remains strong Source: Dealogic Total Metals & Mining Bank Debt Volumes, USD million 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 EMEA Asia Americas Deals
  • 17. Preparing for the next cycle Market perception and sentiment will be key
  • 18. 18 Mongolia – lost the hype?
  • 19. 19 Obvious potential for mineral wealth... Plenty of Potential – Geological Potential Mongolia Source: 2012/2013 Fraser Institute Ranking of Potential Mongolia Held back by regulatory environment – Policy Perception
  • 20. 20 ...but realising that requires a reliable partner Mine development nowadays takes in excess of 10 years from discovery 81st37th 49th36th52nd Purported Erdenet Default on SB loan SEFIL / Southgobi Chalco Dispute On TT prepay New Mining Law Suspension of exploration licenses Desire to renegotiate the OT investment agreement Khan / ARMZ sage – in arbitration OT Investment Agreement AwardedTT IPO Process, partner search 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ?? OT Financing Agreed OT Financing Delayed Suspended
  • 21. What ING can do and can provide Senior Debt across the spectrum for mining companies
  • 22. ING April 2014 22 Lending Advise, structure senior debt Non - Lending Advisory Iceland, Aluminium Pre-structuring advisor for Helguvik aluminium smelter Project Financing (large and small) UK, Hemerdon, Tungsten GBP 75mln project financing, MLA, Technical Agent and hedging bank Hybrid Debt West Africa, Gold USD 350m revolving credit facility, joint MLA and hedging bank Pre Export Financing EU/US/Africa, Base Metals USD 600m syndicated credit facility, joint MLA Acquisition Debt Australia, GS Coal, Coal USD 550m acquisition finance, MLA (financial close expected) Kazakhstan, Base Metals (Copper) USD 1bn pre-export finance, MLA and security agent Example dealProduct Increasing complexity, tenor, # parties involved, and / or preparation time Structured Corporate Debt Mongolia, Oyu Tolgoi, Copper & Gold USD 6bn project financing, MLA (committed)
  • 23. ING April 2014 23 Advise, structure senior debt Development FundingMine in Production Technical Due Diligence Mine Plan, operating costs, sustaining capex Environmental Plans, reviewed by ESR consultantEnvironmental Due Diligence Equator Principles, ESIA, and Action Plans Class I Feasibility Study, capital costing, equipment strategy Offtake Agreements Clear Volume and Pricing Basis Repayment Offshore, withheld from exports Offshore flowing into a controlled waterfall, Clear Volume / Pricing Basis, tenor exceeding loan Tenor Up to 3 years Up to 12 years, depending on ECA cover eligibility Debt Sizing Full payout, Leverage not to exceed 2.0x EBITDA Full payout, Leverage not to exceed 2.0x EBITDA Price Assumptions Low minus 10% Base Case – based on Market DD Providers Banks and Traders Banks, ECAs, Multilaterals