The document summarizes a study that projects public expenditure on social care and health care for older people in England from 2010 to 2022. It finds that: (1) The number of older people with disabilities is projected to increase 32% by 2022; (2) Public expenditure is projected to increase 37% in the same period; and (3) Total net public expenditure is projected to rise from £9.3 billion in 2010 to £12.7 billion in 2022 under base case assumptions.

1. Projected expenditure on care for older
people to 2022
Raphael Wittenberg, Bo Hu, Adelina Comas-Herrera
and Jose-Luis Fernandez
Personal Social Services Research Unit, London School of Economics and Political Science
December 2012 © Nuffield Trust

2. Overview
• Analysis by the Personal Social Services Research Unit at the
London School of Economics and Political Science,
commissioned by the Nuffield Trust.
• Study of projected public expenditure on social care and
continuing health care for people aged 65 and over in England.
• Part of the Nuffield Trust’s Buying Time: What is the scale of
the financial challenge facing the NHS and how can it be met?
programme.
• Findings are drawn upon in A Decade of Austerity: The funding
pressures facing the NHS from 2010/11 to 2021/22, which
discusses the implications of these projections for policy
development.
© Nuffield Trust

3. Key findings
• The number of older people with moderate or severe disabilities is
projected to increase by 32% between 2010 and 2022, under the
base case assumptions that current patterns of care and the Office for
National Statistics (ONS) principal population projections keep pace
with expected demographic and unit cost pressures.
• Public expenditure on social care and continuing health care for older
people is projected to increase by 37% between 2010 and 2022,
under these base case assumptions.
© Nuffield Trust

4. Key findings (continued)
• Total expenditure will vary with life expectancy:
• If life expectancy rises at the lower rate estimated by the ONS, the number
of people with moderate or severe disabilities is projected to rise by 30%,
and public expenditure by 35% in real terms between 2010 and 2022.
• If life expectancy rises at the higher rate, the number of people with
moderate or severe disabilities would rise by 34%, with expenditure
rising by 40%.
• If rates of chronic disease continue to rise in line with recent trends:
• the number of older people with moderate or severe disabilities is projected
to increase by 54% between 2010 and 2022
• public expenditure on social care and continuing health care for older
people is projected to increase by 56% between 2010 and 2022.
© Nuffield Trust

5. Key findings (continued)
• The net public expenditure on social care and continuing health care
for older people is projected to rise from £9.3 billion in real terms
(0.74% of GDP) in 2010 to £12.7 billion (0.78% of GDP) in 2022,
assuming that current patterns of care and the ONS principal
population projections keep pace with expected demographic and unit
cost pressures.
© Nuffield Trust

6. Personal social services (PSS) net expenditure and continuing health care (CHC)
expenditure on over-65s in England under base case assumption, 2010–2022
© © Nuffield Trust
Source: Personal Social Services Research Unit, London School of Economics and Political Science

7. Personal social services net and continuing health care expenditure on social
care for over-65s in England under different life expectancy variants, 2010–2022
© © Nuffield Trust
Source: Personal Social Services Research Unit, London School of Economics and Political Science

8. Personal social services net and continuing health care expenditure on over-65s
in England under base case and continued trends assumption, 2010–2022
© © Nuffield Trust
Source: Personal Social Services Research Unit, London School of Economics and Political Science

9. www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk
Sign-up for our newsletter
www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/newsletter
Follow us on Twitter:
Twitter.com/NuffieldTrust
© Nuffield Trust