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1. Dipl.-Ing., Dipl.-Volksw. Dieter Seifried,
Dipl.-Ing., Dipl.-Volksw. Dieter Seifried,
Dipl.-Ing., Dipl.-Volksw. Dieter Seifried,
Büro Ö-quadrat
Phase out Büro Ö-quadrat
of Nuclear Energy in
Büro Ö-quadrat
Germany and the Development of
Sustainable Energy
Dipl.-Ing., Dipl.-Volksw. Dieter Seifried,
Büro Ö-quadrat
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2. Overview
German Electricity sector
History of phase out of nuclear power
Why it makes sense to close Nuclear reactors
German Energy Policy
Renewable Energy Law and it impacts
Efficiency as an important Pillar of SD
Conclusion
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3. German’s Electricity sector
Basic data
Germany South Korea
Total electricity 620 TWh 400 TWh
production
Installed capacity ca. 90 GW 58 GW
Electricity con- 8,000 kWh/a 8,300 kWh/a
sumption per person
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4. German’s Electricity sector
Basic data
Electricity Consumption
Production by resource (1990 and 2010)
Structure of German Electricity Market
Net losses?
Blackouts:
Jobs
Price development (Household and Industry, taxes
Oil Gas Lignite Coal Nuclear Renew-
ables
Source: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln, 2010
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5. German’s Electricity sector
Basic data
Gross domestic product
Electricity consumption
Primary energy consumption
Energy intensity
Source: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln, 2010
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6. German’s Electricity sector
Basic data
Germany South Korea
Number of installed Beginning of 21
nuclear power 2011: 17
plants Today: 9
Total installed Beginning of 18,5 GW
capacity in nuclear 2011: 20,5 GW
power plants Today:12,4 GW
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7. Liberalisation of the electricity market (1998) – what
happened?
Market concentration ... and after liberalisation
before liberalisation ...
Total number of companies: Total number of companies
1,229 (2006): 919
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8. History of phase-out of nuclear power in Germany
Environmental movement against nuclear power in the 70th
1986: Tschernobyl accident: Since then: stable majority of Germans against
nuclear power
1998 Red-green coalition in Federal government
2002: “nuclear consensus”: Lifetime per reactor 32 years
2009: Christian Democrats (CDU) and FDP (Market liberals) have been
elected for government
Sept 2010: “Energy Concept” for extended lifetime of reactors (8 to 14
years), Phase out in 2050??
11th March 2011: Fukushima nuclear accident
15th March 2011: Moratorium: 8 oldest nuclear power plants closed
29th May: “energy turn”, phase out of nuclear power by 2022 (last plant)
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9. Comparison of original phase out (nuclear consensus) with actual plan
Überblick Phase out until September 2010
May 2011
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10. Phase out of nuclear power – why?
Governments view: No election can be won with nuclear energy policy
My view:
Risk of accidents with nuclear emissions – immense damage
possible
Risk of Terrorism
Until now we don’t have any storage for high radioactive waste
Risk of proliferation
Nuclear power plants doesn’t fit in to a electricity system with high
fraction of renewable energies
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11. The need for change in energy policy
Risks of nuclear power
Risks and costs of Climate Change
Scarcity of resources
Energy security (Europe wants to reduce its dependence of
imported oil and gas)
The consequences of BAU: fight for resources
Economical advantage of a change in energy policy
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12. The German government‘s energy and climate goals
(6.6.2011)
To reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 % of the
1990 values by 2020 (80-95% until 2050)
To double energy productivity until 2020
To increase the share of renewable sources in electricity
generation to 35 % by the year 2020 (fact: first half of
2011: 20%)
Reduce the electricity consumption by 10 percent until
2020 (compared to 2010)
End of phase-out period: 2022
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13. Principal Pillars of German Climate Policy
Sustainable Energy Policy
Resource efficiency
Renewable energy
Energy efficiency
Combined heat
and power
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14. Emission of Green House Gases
in Germany
Source: UBA, 2010
(Mio. t CO2 equiv)
minus 21%
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15. Renewable Energy Sources in Germany
Year 1990-1999
Share of renewables in
electricity production
only 4%
Only little development
or electricity generation
from renewables
Mostly wind power
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16. Feed-in Law and Renewable Energy Sources Act
(EEG) produced a renewable energy success story
Need for change
Introduction of Feed-in tariff in 1991
Feed-in tariff: Grid operator/utility has to pay a percentage of the average
customer price based on the previous year:
90% for wind power
80% for biomass and small hydro
65% for bigger hydro plants (500 kW to 5 MW, no feed-in tariff for
higher power)
In April 2000 the Renewable Energy Act was implemented.
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17. Renewable Energy Sources in Germany
Year 1990-1999
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18. Renewable Energy Sources in Germany
Year 1990-2009
Source: BMU, 2010
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19. Renewable Energy Sources Act (REA)
The Corner Stones
Priority grid access and priority transmission for renewables
Grid access costs are borne by grid owner
Legal guarantee of a minimum fixed tariff for 20 years
The tariffs are differentiated according to the technology and the size of the
power plants
Tariff is determined in a way that the investor can recover his costs for the
investment (and interest of capital) over a timeframe of 20 years
To give an incentive to reduce the costs of renewable installations, the feed-in
price for new installations is lowered every year (degression rate)
The cost of the subventions are paid by all electricity customers through a
surcharge on the electricity price (exemption: big industry customers)
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20. REA 2007
Examples for feed-in tariffs (Euro-Cent/kWh)
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21. Rising the Solar Power under REA
Photovoltaic Installations in Germany
Source: BMU, 2010
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22. Rising the Solar Power under REA
Photovoltaic Installations in Germany
2010: 17,000 MW
Source: BMU, 2010
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23. Enormous Cost Reductions for PV
Development of Feed-in Tariff and Household Electricity Tariff in Germany
Euro-Cent/kWh
50 49,2
For small plants with less than
30 kWp
46,8
43
40 39,1
34,1
33
30
28,7
Household tariff 26,2
depending on market development
20 21,8
10
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 year
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24. Rising the Wind Power under REA
Windpower Installations in Germany
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25. Rising the Efficiency of Wind-turbines
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26. Rising the Efficiency of Wind-turbines
Within 20 years the energy
output of wind-turbines has
increased 100-fold
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27. Who pays for the Renewable Energy?
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28. Feed-in tariff and production costs of electricity
Folie 28 Source: DLR, IWES, 2010
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29. Additional cost of the Renewable Energy Act
Source: DLR, IWES, 2010 Source: DLR, IWES, 2010
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30. The Need to overcome Market Distortions
CO 2
Fossil Fuel +
s
Renewable
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31. REA convinced many other countries!
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32. Barriers in the Renewable Energy Sector
Regulatory and utility barriers
Bureaucratic licensing of projects
Pricing and tax barriers (e.g. import duties)
Low feed-in tariffs for electricity
Insufficient information and training
Limited supply-infrastructure
Lack of money or financing
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33. Renewables are an Offence to the existing energy system
Every kWh produced from renewables cannot be produced by fossil fuels
Every kWh produced from renewables will result in a reduced contribution
profit margin (3-5 cent/kWh)
Renewables are mostly small plants owned by private persons
It´s a change from centralised decissions to private action
It´s a change from imported energy carriers to “free” energy
The change from the existing energy
system to a renewable system produce
conflicts, fights and political influence.
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34. Growing market
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35. New jobs through renewables
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36. Principal Pillars of German Climate Policy
Sustainable Energy Policy
Resource efficiency
Renewable energy
Energy efficiency
Combined heat
and power
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37. The challenge
No emission from fossil fuels
No risk through nuclear power
Energy security
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38. CO2-emissions reduction – “Target” scenario for the City of Munic
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39. CO2-emissions reduction – Heat requirement for
buildings
Building stock Energy consumption
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60% 50%
50% 40%
30%
40%
20%
30%
10%
20%
0%
10%
11
14
17
20
23
26
29
32
35
38
41
44
47
50
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
0%
11
14
17
20
23
26
29
32
35
38
41
44
47
50
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Average consumption of old buildings 200 kWh/m2,year
renovated not renovated demolition and new Renovation rate 2,2% %/year
Energy consumption of renovated buildings 30 kWh/m2,year
Demolition rate 0,30% %/year
Energy consumption of new buildings 15 kWh/m2,year
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40. Office building with „passive house“ standard in Ludwigshafen / Germany
(lu-teco 2007)
(10.147qm; rent=10,65€/qm; triple glazing; 20cm insulation; PV
07/10/2011 Folie 40 Büro Ö-quadrat

41. „Plus energy“ („Plusenergiehaus“®) estate and office building („solar
ship“) in Freiburg/ Germany
07/10/2011 Source: Literature List of Wuppertal Institute
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42. Insulation of an old “sky-scraper” in Freiburg (passive house
standard)
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43. High saving potential in the field of appliances…
Comparison of cooling appliances with different efficiency classes
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44. Market transformation needs help
LESS - Remove the bad
Minimum efficiency standards
Tests
Tax Policy
MORE - Promote the good
Incentives
Labelling NEW
Information
Procurement
MORE
Green certificates
NEW – Develop better
R&D
X-price
Source: Peter Bach, Danish Energy Agency
12.10.2011 Paths toward a carbon-free city
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45. Renewables and efficiency are an Offence to the existing energy
system
Every kWh produced from renewables cannot be produced by fossil fuels
Every kWh produced from renewables or saved will result in a reduced
contribution profit margin (3-5 cent/kWh)
Renewables are mostly small plants owned by private persons
It´s a change from centralised decissions to private action
It´s a change from imported energy carriers to “free” energy
The change from the existing energy
system to a renewable system produce
conflicts, fights and political influence.
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46. Conclusion
80 to 95% CO2-reduction are necessary and feasible
(including phase-out of nuclear power)
In the renewable sector Germany is on a good way to
reach its goals
In the efficiency sector there is a high potential of savings
with a good cost-benefit relation but a lack of politics
The phase out of nuclear power was a clear signal, that
we have to change the whole energy system and make it
sustainable
It will boost the investment into sustainable energy
resources and into efficiency
The signal came from the people – not from politics
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47. Thank you!
Danke!
More information:
seifried@oe2.de
www.oe2.de
www.wupperinst.org