Express survey of Ukrainian public opinion upon the most loud recent political events in Ukraine and around it. Done at 04-06 th of Dec.2014 by iVOX Ukraine.
1. EXPRESS SOCIO SURVEY REPORT
Attitudes towards recent political events
by Ukrainian population
December, 04-07, 2014
To the attention of Ambassador of Belgium to Ukraine, Mr.Luc Jacobs
On the occasion of the official visit to Ukraine
of Mr.Reynders, The Vice Prime Minister of Belgium
1
2. THE ENTIRE LIST OF THE POLITICAL EVENTS
UNDER THE “TEST”
2
• Russian President Putin has threatened Ukraine (represented by its President Poroshenko) with the
full-scale military invasion in the nearest future.
• New parliamentary coalition declared the intent of Ukraine to join NATO.
• Ukrainian government has suspended social expenses on the occupied territories of Donbass region
(i.e. pensions, state expenses etc) as of Dec 1st, 2014.
• Prime minister Yatseniuk has announced pessimistic forecast (on continuous recession) of Ukrainian
economy for 2015.
• USA and European bodies started providing Ukraine with modern non-lethal weaponry.
• The second wave of lustration of "old" officials started in Ukraine in the end of November.
• At the World TOP-20 leaders' summit in Australia, President Putin has been exposed to the
aggressive critics by the participants for the situation in Eastern Ukraine.
• Three foreign specialists were invited and have joined the new government of Ukraine as the
ministers.
• Terrorist attack by Chechen insurgents (rebels) on the governmental forces in Groznyi - the capital of
Chechnia.
• The new Ukrainian Parliament has approved creation of the new Ministry: of information policy.
3. EXPRESS CONCLUSIONS
3
The most positive perception receives the new wave of the second wave of lustration that
started in November (76%), the criticism, president Putin got faced on World TOP-20 summit
(76%) and the fact, that USA and Europe started the provision of Ukraine with modern non-lethal
weaponry (71%).
The respondents assess negatively the threats of president Putin to invade Ukraine in the
nearest future (85%) and the prime minister’s Yatseniuk claim on the pessimistic forecast for
Ukrainian economics in 2015.
As the result of the survey, it was determined that respondents with the income below average
are more likely to assess the political events negatively than those with the average and above
average income. On the contrary, the respondents with above average income tend to perceive
political events positively. Worth to mention, that men are more optimistic on the political events
than women.
Almost all events, studied upon the survey, were considered by the respondents as important
and scored more than 50%, except set up of the new ministry (of information policy) in the
Ukrainian government.
The respondents with income above average consider as more important (than those with the
below average income) the following events: beginning of provision of Ukraine with the modern
non-lethal weaponry from the USA and Europe as well as the inclusion into the Cabinet of
Ministers of three foreign specialists as ministers.
4. UKRAINE’S OPINION ON RECENT POLITICAL EVENTS
NEGATIVE VS. POSITIVE
Please describe your opinion on the following latest events:
7
3
11
12
18
17
6
2
3
25
6
8
6
3
32
25
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Index
12
8
5
8
8
8
12
11
62
10
9
20
14
81
4
6
8
8
65
59
8
54
16
35
34
27
9
4
6
13
6
15
12
71
21
16
6
4
20
10
3
2
(out of 6)
3
4
The new wave of lustration of "old" officials started in Ukraine
in the end of November
On the world top-20 countries leaders' summit in Australia,
President Putin was exposed to the critics of other…
USA and European bodies started provision of Ukraine with
modern non-mortal weaponry
New parliamentary coalition declared the intend of Ukraine to
enter NATO
Three foreign specialists where invited and entered the new
government of Ukraine as its ministers
Ukarinain government suspended strating Dec 1st, the funding
of social expenses on the occupied territories of Donbass…
Attack of Chechen insurgents (rebels) on the governmantal
forces in Groznyi - the capital of Chechnia
New Ukrainian parliament approved the creation of the new
ministry of information policy
Prime minister Yatseniuk announced the pessimistic forecast
(on continous recession) of Ukrainian economy in 2015
Russian President Putin threatened Ukraine (represented by
its president) with the full-scale military invasion in the…
B2B
(1+2)
T2B
(5+6)
5.1 10% 76%
5.0 14% 76%
4.8 15% 71%
4.5 21% 62%
4.2 23% 56%
3.8 33% 49%
3.3 40% 34%
3.3 32% 26%
1.8 79% 6%
1.5 85% 5%
Base: all respondents (N=508) 4
04-06 of December 2014
%
New (2nd) wave of lustration
Critics to Putin on the World TOP-20 summit in
Australia
Supply of modern non-lethal weaponry
The new Coalition intends Ukraine to NATO
Three “expat” Ministers into new Ukrainian Cabinet
Suspend of funding of social expenses on the occupied
territories
Attack of Chechen insurgents (rebels) in Groznyi
Set up of Ministry of information policy
Pessimistic forecast (of continuous recession) for 2015
by Yatseniuk
President Putin’s threats of the full-scale military
invasion
negative positive
Sorted by T2B
B2B T2B
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5. THE PERCEPTION OF POLITICAL EVENTS
New wave of lustration
Critics to Putin on the World TOP-20 summit in Australia
Supply of modern non-lethal weaponry
The new Coalition intends Ukraine to NATO
Three “expat” Ministers into new Ukrainian Cabinet
Suspend of funding of social expenses on the occupied territories
Attack of Chechen insurgents (rebels) in Groznyi
Set up of Ministry of information policy
Pessimistic forecast (of continuous recession) for 2015 by Yatseniuk
President Putin’s threats of the full-scale military invasion
NEGATIVE-POSITIVE BY INCOME
below average average above average
B A
5
Please describe your opinion on the following latest events:
A B C
8
8
10
13
14
24
33
29
72
91
82
83
82
75
70
57
41
24
5
3
14
23
21
30
35
40
53
35
88
78
72
66
61
52
45
41
26
23
4
8
B2B (1+2) T2B (5+6)
8
11
12
18
20
32
35
31
76
87
77
80
74
64
55
50
36
31
9
5
Base: all respondents (see details)
Income
C
A
N=151 N=211 N=134
Sorted by T2B
The respective value is significantly higher/lower at sig. level 95%
A
C
* 2% of respondents refused to answer about their income
6. THE PERCEPTION OF POLITICAL EVENTS
New wave of lustration
Critics to Putin on the World TOP-20 summit in Australia
Supply of modern non-lethal weaponry
The new Coalition intends Ukraine to NATO
Three “expat” Ministers into new Ukrainian Cabinet
Suspend of funding of social expenses on the occupied territories
Attack of Chechen insurgents (rebels) in Groznyi
Set up of Ministry of information policy
Pessimistic forecast (of continuous recession) for 2015 by Yatseniuk
President Putin’s threats of the full-scale military invasion
NEGATIVE-POSITIVE BY GENDER
%
6
Please describe your opinion on the following latest events:
Base: all respondents (see details)
Sorted by T2B
82
Male (N=245) Female (N=264)
82
79
69
61
57
44
25
7
9
71
71
64
57
51
42
26
27
5
2
The respective value is significantly higher/lower at sig. level 95%
Т2В (5+6)
7. THE PERCEPTION OF POLITICAL EVENTS
UNIMPORTANT-IMPORTANT
7
Please describe your opinion on the following latest events:
Base: all respondents (N=508)
5
2
3
1
2
3
6
5
4
5
1
12
1
2
1
2
3
2
3
7
5
4
4
5
3
6
6
8
11
B2B T2B
16
4
8
11
8
10
9
10
18
17
23
10
14
21
22
19
14
11
24
18
75
70
62
61
64
64
66
15
45
45
27
Russian President Putin threatened Ukraine (represented by
its president) with the full-scale military invasion in the…
New parliamentary coalition declared the intend of Ukraine to
enter NATO
Ukarinain government suspended strating Dec 1st, the funding
of social expenses on the occupied territories of Donbass…
Prime minister Yatseniuk announced the pessimistic forecast
(on continous recession) of Ukrainian economy in 2015
USA and European bodies started provision of Ukraine with
modern non-mortal weaponry
The new wave of lustration of "old" officials started in Ukraine
in the end of November
On the world top-20 countries leaders' summit in Australia,
President Putin was exposed to the critics of other…
Three foreign specialists where invited and entered the new
government of Ukraine as its ministers
Attack of Chechen insurgents (rebels) on the governmantal
forces in Groznyi - the capital of Chechnia
New Ukrainian parliament approved the creation of the new
ministry of information policy
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
President Putin’s threats of the full-scale military
invasion
The new Coalition intends Ukraine to NATO
Suspend of funding of social expenses on the occupied
territories
Pessimistic forecast (of continuous recession) for 2015
by Yatseniuk
Supply of modern non-lethal weaponry
New wave of lustration
Critics to Putin on the World TOP-20 summit in
Australia
.
Three “expat” Ministers into new Ukrainian Cabinet
Attack of Chechen insurgents (rebels) in Groznyi
Set up of Ministry of information policy
mean
B2B
(1+2)
T2B
(5+6)
5.4 6% 85%
5.4 4% 84%
5.4 2% 83%
5.3 4% 83%
5.3 4% 83%
5.1 8% 78%
5.2 8% 76%
4.9 6% 69%
4.8 8% 64%
4.0 19% 42%
% unimportant important
Sorted by T2B
8. below average (N=151) average (N=211) above average (N=134)
Please describe your opinion on the following latest events:
President Putin’s threats of the full-scale military invasion
The new Coalition intends Ukraine to NATO
Suspend of funding of social expenses on the occupied territories
Pessimistic forecast (of continuous recession) for 2015 by
Yatseniuk
Supply of modern non-lethal weaponry
New wave of lustration
Critics to Putin on the World TOP-20 summit in Australia
Three “expat” Ministers into new Ukrainian Cabinet
Attack of Chechen insurgents (rebels) in Groznyi
Set up of Ministry of information policy
A B C
82%
80%
81%
85%
79%
75%
70%
64%
63%
33%
86%
86%
82%
84%
81%
78%
78%
67%
59%
48%
85%
85%
86%
78%
91%
79%
80%
79%
72%
43%
8
Base: all respondents (see details)
THE PERCEPTION OF POLITICAL EVENTS
UNIMPORTANT-IMPORTANT BY INCOME LEVEL
Sorted by T2B
The respective value is significantly higher/lower at sig. level 95%
Т2В (5+6)
B
A
* 2% of respondents refused to answer about their income
9. THE PERCEPTION OF POLITICAL EVENTS
UNIMPORTANT-IMPORTANT BY GENDER
President Putin’s threats of the full-scale military invasion
The new Coalition intends Ukraine to NATO
Suspend of funding of social expenses on the occupied territories
Pessimistic forecast (of continuous recession) for 2015 by Yatseniuk
Supply of modern non-lethal weaponry
New wave of lustration
Critics to Putin on the World TOP-20 summit in Australia
Three “expat” Ministers into new Ukrainian Cabinet
Attack of Chechen insurgents (rebels) in Groznyi
Set up of Ministry of information policy
%
9
Please describe your opinion on the following latest events:
Base: all respondents (see details)
Sorted by T2B
86
Male (N=245) Female (N=264)
88
86
83
84
82
79
73
70
47
83
80
81
83
81
73
74
65
58
38
The respective value is significantly higher/lower at sig. level 95%
Т2В (5+6)
10. METHODOLOGY & RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
10
Research Objectives
Study of the public opinion upon political situation in Ukraine.
Data collection method
Online survey based on iVOX panel of respondents across Ukraine.
Target group
Men and women aged 16-59 years in all regions of Ukraine.
Geography
Ukraine, all types of settlements, all regions (excluding Crimea).
Effective sample size
508 respondents. The sample is representative to general population of Ukraine (See above.
"Geography") by gender, age, geography of residence. Stat. error= 4,3% at 95% reliability of the
method.
Length of interview
~ 4 minutes
Data collection period: 04-06 of December, 2014
11. Gender
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF THE SAMPLE
Male 48%
Female 52%
Age
16-29 30%
30-44 37%
45-59 33%
Region
Kiev 6%
North 9%
West 23%
Center 12%
South 14%
East 36%
Income
We do not have enough money even for food 2%
We have enough money for food, but to buy clothing will
be difficult
27%
We have enough money for food and clothing, but
buying a TV, refrigerator or a washing machine is difficult
42%
We can buy the basic household appliances, but we cant
afford a car
23%
Our resources are not enough to buy an apartment or
private house
3%
If necessary, we can buy an apartment or a house 0.02%
Refused to answer 2%
Level of income
Below average 29%
Average 42%
Above average 27%
11
Base: all respondents (N=508)
12. RFQ us: sales@ivox.com.ua
IVOX ONLINE CONSUMER PANEL,
THE QUALITY LEADER IN UKRAINE
The pioneer of the Ukrainian market, since 2008.
The panel members have been recruited gradually during 4 years, specifically for
research purpose only.
No artificial acquisition (purchase of database or similar); all panelists were engaged
consciously.
Double opt-in registration.
Deeply profiled panel => good quality of targeting respondents.
Well balanced by sources of recruitment: 40+ online sources + 10% offline recruitment.
Very moderate deterioration of the panel. We conduct on average about 3 effective
interviews per year / one panelist.