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Politics report-wave-2-part-2-eng-1

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Objective: to identify the attitude of citizens of Ukraine to the socio-political and economic situation in the country, to determine the electoral preferences and level of confidence towards the civil and public institutions, as well as to form an estimate of judgments of the situation in the Donbas, e-declaration and other high-profile events

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Politics report-wave-2-part-2-eng-1

  1. 1. REPORT ON THE RESULTS OF THE SOCIO-POLITICAL SURVEY Друга хвиля, листопад 2016 р. Second wave, November 2016
  2. 2. Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Research methodology ● Object of the research: Ukraine residents aged 18 years and older ● Subject of the research: socio-political situation in the country ● Objective: to identify the attitude of citizens of Ukraine to the socio-political and economic situation in the country, to determine the electoral preferences and level of confidence towards the civil and public institutions, as well as to form an estimate of judgments of the situation in the Donbas, e-declaration and other high-profile events ● Method of data collection: face-to-face interviews ● Population: 29,6 million people ● Population sample: probabilistic stratified in three stages with quota screening by age and sex in the last stage ● Sample size: 2,000 people ● Geography of the research: The survey was conducted during 21-28 November 2016 in 106 settlements in all provinces of Ukraine except Crimea. Survey was not held in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (provinces). ● Theoretical sampling error: 2.3% at 0.95 confidence level ● Distribution by provinces: ● East - Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk provinces. ● West - Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Zakarpattia, Chernivtsi, Khmelnytskyi, Volyn, Rivne provinces. ● North - Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv provinces. ● Center - Kirovohrad, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia provinces. ● South - Odessa, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia, Kherson provinces.
  3. 3. ATTITUDE TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN UNION, NEUTRAL STATUS OF UKRAINE
  4. 4. Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Conclusions: Attitude towards the European Union, neutral status of Ukraine ● Every second respondent thinks that sooner or later Ukraine will become a member of the European Union: 25.6% of the respondents believe that it will happen in 5-10 years, and almost as many (24.7%) believe that it will happen in the longer term of 15-20 years. At the same time, nearly 30% of respondents believe that Ukraine will never join the EU. ● Remarkably, in comparison with the previous wave of research the Ukrainians became more pessimistic about the prospects of membership in the European Union: in May, according to our survey, 32.9% of respondents believed that Ukraine would join the EU within 5-10 years, and only 24.6% believed that Ukraine would never become a member of the EU six months ago. ● More than half of respondents indicated that their attitude towards the EU has not changed in the recent years, 27.7% indicated that it has changed for the worse, and 11.2% - for the better. It should be noted that in comparison with the results of May 2016 the number of those who improved their attitude towards the EU reduced, while the number of those whose attitude worsened or remained unchanged has slightly increased. ● Almost 65% of respondents believe that the main reasons for non-granting a visa-free regime to Ukraine are connected to the internal factors: 48% of respondents believe that the reason is that we frighten the Europeans with our problems, and 16.9% believe that the reason is the failure of Ukraine to comply with the EU requirements. And according to 22.7% of respondents, non-granting a visa-free regime is due to the external factors: 12.1% of respondents believe the EU is afraid to irritate Russia, and one in ten believes that the reason is the EU being in deep crisis. ● Regarding the Ukraine's announcement of the neutral status for the purpose of removal of the problem of conflict with Russia from the agenda, which is discussed by some politicians in the West, a quarter of respondents believe that this option is possible provided a powerful army, economy and state. 16.2% of respondents agree that this is not the best outcome but it is acceptable provided that Ukraine obtains reliable security guarantees from the West. Almost as many (15.7%) believe that it is an impermissible luxury for the weak Ukraine. 12% support the idea that this would be the best way out of the situation that emerged, and 9% believe that such an idea is just a camouflaged position of the US and Europe to give Ukraine into the Russian influence.
  5. 5. Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Attitude towards the EU 25.6% 24.7% 31.4% 3.7% 14.6% Will join the EU in 5 years Will join the EU in 15-20 years Will never join the EU Other Hard to tell Reference group: all respondents, n=2000 10. In your opinion, will Ukraine join the EU in the future and how soon may this happen?
  6. 6. 25.6% 24.7% 31.4% 3.7% 14.6% Will join the EU in 5 years Will join the EU in 15-20 years Will never join the EU Other Hard to tell 32.9% 30.6% 24.6% 0.0% 11.8% November 2016 May 2016 Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Attitude towards the EU Reference group: all respondents, n=2000 10. In your opinion, will Ukraine join the EU in the future and how soon may this happen?
  7. 7. 10. In your opinion, will Ukraine join the EU in the future and how soon may this happen? BREAKDOWN BY REGION, % 14.3% 20.9% 37.2% 6.6% 20.9% 31.7% 26.0% 28.8% 2.1% 11.4% 29.2% 30.7% 25.7% 4.4% 10.0% 20.6% 26.4% 39.0% 2.5% 11.5% 26.1% 15.2% 28.0% 5.3% 25.4% Will join the EU in 5 years Will join the EU in 15-20 years Will never join the EU Other Hard to tell Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Attitude towards the EU Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  8. 8. 24.3% 25.9% 35.0% 3.5% 11.3% 26.6% 23.7% 28.3% 4.0% 17.3% Gender Male Female 36.0% 26.9% 25.7% 4.0% 7.4% 32.3% 24.5% 27.6% 2.5% 13.0% 23.8% 28.5% 30.2% 3.2% 14.3% 20.9% 22.0% 35.2% 4.6% 17.4% Will join the EU in 5 years Will join the EU in 15-20 years Will never join the EU Other Hard to tell Age 18-24 25-34 35-49 50 + Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Attitude towards the EU 10. In your opinion, will Ukraine join the EU in the future and how soon may this happen? BREAKDOWN BY AGE AND GENDER, % Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  9. 9. 11. Has your attitude towards the EU changed within the last 3 years, and if yes – how? 11.2% 27.7% 55.4% 5.7% Yes, has changed for the better Yes, has changed for the worse Has not changed Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Attitude towards the EU Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  10. 10. 11. Has your attitude towards the EU changed within the last 3 years, and if yes – how? 11.2% 27.7% 55.4% 5.7% Yes, has changed for the better Yes, has changed for the worse Has not changed Hard to tell 20.7% 24.8% 52.0% 2.5% November 2016 May 2016 Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Attitude towards the EU Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  11. 11. 11. Has your attitude towards the EU changed within the last 3 years, and if yes – how? BREAKDOWN BY AGE, % 17.1% 23.4% 54.9% 4.6% 13.7% 24.5% 58.4% 3.4% 10.6% 29.0% 57.0% 3.4% 8.9% 29.4% 53.2% 8.5% Yes, has changed for the better Yes, has changed for the worse Has not changed Hard to tell 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Attitude towards the EU Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  12. 12. 10.0% 28.2% 57.1% 4.7% 13.7% 26.6% 51.9% 7.8% Yes, has changed for the better Yes, has changed for the worse Has not changed Hard to tell Type of settlement Urban Rural 11. Has your attitude towards the EU changed within the last 3 years, and if yes – how? BREAKDOWN BY TYPE OF SETTLEMENT AND REGION, % 5.1% 28.6% 58.7% 7.7% 13.9% 28.1% 54.6% 3.4% 15.0% 16.5% 64.0% 4.4% 11.8% 33.8% 47.8% 6.6% 5.3% 32.2% 53.8% 8.7% Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Attitude towards the EU Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  13. 13. 48.0% 16.9% 12.1% 10.6% 9.4% 3.1% Ukraine frightens the Europeans with its problems Ukraine does not comply with the EU requirements EU is afraid to irritate Russia EU is in a deep crisis Hard to tell Other Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Attitude towards the EU Reference group: all respondents, n=2000 64,9% 22,7% Internal reasons External reasons 12. Despite all promises, the EU has not yet granted Ukraine a visa-free regime. Why is it so?
  14. 14. 12. Despite all promises, the EU has not yet granted Ukraine a visa-free regime. Why is it so? BREAKDOWN BY REGION, % 48.0% 11.2% 9.7% 8.7% 7.7% 14.8% 48.6% 18.7% 17.8% 6.8% 2.3% 5.7% 51.0% 18.3% 12.1% 10.6% 1.5% 6.5% 45.9% 19.0% 8.2% 15.7% 1.1% 10.2% 46.2% 13.3% 9.5% 11.4% 5.7% 14.0% Ukraine frightens the Europeans with its problems Ukraine does not comply with the EU requirements EU is afraid to irritate Russia EU is in a deep crisis Other Hard to tell Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Attitude towards the EU Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  15. 15. 13. Some Western politicians believe that Ukraine should announce a neutral status in order to remove the problem of the conflict with Russia from the agenda. In your opinion, can this become a solution for the problem? 12.0% 16.2% 24.1% 9.0% 15.7% 1.2% 21.7% Yes, it would be the best way out of the situation that emerged This is not the best outcome but it is acceptable provided that Ukraine obtains reliable security guarantees from the West We could, if Ukraine had the powerful army, economy and state It is a camouflaged position of the US and Europe to give Ukraine into the Russian influence It is an impermissible luxury for the weak Ukraine Other Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Attitude towards the neural status of Ukraine Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  16. 16. 13. Some Western politicians believe that Ukraine should announce a neutral status in order to remove the problem of the conflict with Russia from the agenda. In your opinion, can this become a solution for the problem? BREAKDOWN BY REGION AND AGE, % 13.1% 12.0% 28.0% 11.4% 12.0% 3.4% 20.0% 10.9% 17.1% 24.8% 11.5% 15.8% 0.3% 19.6% 10.6% 18.7% 24.1% 8.6% 18.2% 1.2% 18.7% 13.1% 15.4% 22.8% 7.5% 15.2% 1.1% 25.0% 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Attitude towards the neural status of Ukraine Reference group: all respondents, n=2000 9.7% 13.8% 19.9% 5.1% 21.4% 1.5% 28.6% 10.0% 18.0% 31.3% 8.4% 18.7% 1.1% 12.3% 9.4% 17.4% 24.8% 8.3% 15.9% 0.9% 23.3% 16.8% 14.3% 17.3% 11.3% 14.8% 0.8% 24.7% 13.6% 15.9% 23.9% 10.6% 7.6% 2.3% 26.1% Yes, it would be the best way out of the situation that emerged This is not the best outcome but it is acceptable provided that Ukraine obtains reliable security guarantees from the West We could, if Ukraine had the powerful army, economy and state It is a camouflaged position of the US and Europe to give Ukraine into the Russian influence It is an impermissible luxury for the weak Ukraine Other Hard to tell Region East West North Center South Age
  17. 17. ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION IN THE DONBAS, MINSK AGREEMENTS
  18. 18. Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Conclusions: Assessment of the situation in the Donbas, Minsk agreements (1) ● We have asked the respondents whether they are familiar with the text of the Minsk agreements. It turned out that only 11.4% of respondents are well acquainted with the content of the agreements. Most of the population (60.3%) has a superficial knowledge or heard about them in the media, and one in four (25.8%) is absolutely unfamiliar with the contents of the agreements. ● Compared with the results of May, there is a significant decrease in the number of those who believe that Ukraine should adhere to the implementation of the Minsk agreements (from 54.9% to 42.3%). Also slightly smaller proportion of respondents believes that the Minsk agreements will solve the problem of conflict in the Donbas (21.8% - in May, 19.3% - in November). ● Respondents are quite pessimistic about the end of the conflict in the Donbas: 37.5% of respondents believe that the conflict will be frozen and the search for solution will last for a decade, 38.5% believe that the conflict will be resolved within 2-5 years, and only 7.1% believe that the Donbas conflict will be resolved within a year. ● Ukrainians don't have a clear idea on how to solve the problem of the occupied Donbas territories:  20% believe that a referendum should be held on recognition of the "LNR" and "DNR" as the occupied territories with termination of social transfers and other liabilities;  19.6% think that the occupied Donbas territories should be attempted to be brought back by force;  11.1% - Ukraine should provide autonomy to the "LNR-DNR" in line with the Minsk agreements;  21% - nothing should be changed fundamentally waiting until the situation changes for the better;  Only 7,1% support the idea of a referendum on recognition of the "LNR" and "DNR" recognition as the independent states;  21.1% did not answer this question at all. ● Compared to the results of the May survey, the number of those who consider it necessary to grant autonomy to the "LNR" and "DNR" in accordance with Minsk agreements decreased by 7% during the past six months; 6% fewer are those who chose the option of holding a referendum on recognition of the "LNR" and "DNR" as the occupied territories with termination of social transfers and other liabilities. In contrast, the number of respondents who see no way out of the situation increased by 6.6%; there are more - by 5.5% - supporters of the idea of waiting until the situation changes for the better; and there is a 2% increase in the number of those who support the idea of holding a referendum on recognition of the "LNR" and "DNR" as independent states.
  19. 19. Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Conclusions: Assessment of the situation in the Donbas, Minsk agreements (2) ● If there was a referendum to be held in the nearest future on recognition of "LDNR" as occupied territories with termination of social transfers and other liabilities, 38.3% of respondents would support such an initiative and vote affirmatively. One out of 5 respondents would vote against (20%), while 27.2% would not go to the referendum. 35.7% of residents of the East indicated that they would not go to such a referendum, and 20.9% - that they would not support such an initiative. However, 21.9% would vote affirmatively. For comparison, 49.5% of the residents of the Western provinces would support such an initiative, 38.6% - of the Southern and the Northern ones, and 33% - of the population of the Central provinces. ● As for the causes of presence of a large number of people at the funeral of "Motorola" militiaman in Donetsk, 27.7% of respondents noted that it is difficult to understand what is happening; 18.7% believe that the occupation authorities simply drove state employees together to show a desired TV picture for the Kremlin; for 17.5% this indicates that some of the people support the invaders, but this does not mean that everyone does; 15.9% believe that we should not believe what the invaders broadcast, and 11.8% believe that this is the evidence of formation of the own identity on the occupied territory of Donbas which is hostile to Ukraine. And if respondents in the Eastern, Northern, Central and Southern provinces most frequently noted that it is difficult to understand what is happening there, in the Western ones the respondents tended to believe that the occupation authorities were creating a TV-picture for the Kremlin by means of the state employees.
  20. 20. 14. Please indicate whether you are familiar with the text of the Minsk agreements. Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue 11.4% 60.3% 25.8% 0.3% 2.1% Yes, I am familiar with the content of the Minsk agreements Superficially familiar, heard about it from the media Not familiar Other Hard to tell Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  21. 21. 14. Please indicate whether you are familiar with the text of the Minsk agreements. BREAKDOWN BY REGION, % 20.4% 64.8% 13.8% 1.0% 0.0% 13.2% 56.6% 29.0% 0.2% 0.9% 5.3% 65.8% 26.8% 0.0% 2.1% 12.1% 60.4% 26.6% 0.3% 0.5% 8.7% 56.1% 26.9% 0.4% 8.0% Yes, I am familiar with the content of the Minsk agreements Superficially familiar, heard about it from the media Not familiar Other Hard to tell Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  22. 22. 13.4% 63.3% 20.9% 0.1% 2.4% 9.9% 57.9% 29.8% 0.5% 1.9% Gender Male Female 8.0% 46.9% 42.9% 0.6% 1.7% 9.9% 60.6% 28.3% 0.3% 0.9% 13.0% 60.9% 23.6% 0.2% 2.2% 12.1% 63.3% 21.7% 0.3% 2.7% Yes, I am familiar with the content of the Minsk agreements Superficially familiar, heard about it from the media Not familiar Other Hard to tell Age 18-24 25-34 35-49 50 + 14. Please indicate whether you are familiar with the text of the Minsk agreements. BREAKDOWN BY AGE AND GENDER, % Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  23. 23. 15. In your opinion, should Ukraine adhere to the Minsk agreements? 42.3% 26.0% 31.7% Yes No Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  24. 24. 15. In your opinion, should Ukraine adhere to the Minsk agreements? 42.3% 26.0% 31.7% Yes No Hard to tell 54.9% 27.0% 18.0% November 2016 May 2016 Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  25. 25. 43.8% 28.4% 27.8% 41.0% 24.1% 34.8% Gender Male Female 32.6% 21.1% 46.3% 40.1% 31.4% 28.6% 42.0% 25.1% 32.9% 45.9% 25.4% 28.7% Yes No Hard to tell Age 18-24 25-34 35-49 50 + 15. In your opinion, should Ukraine adhere to the Minsk agreements? BREAKDOWN BY AGE AND GENDER, % Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  26. 26. 15. In your opinion, should Ukraine adhere to the Minsk agreements? BREAKDOWN BY GENDER, % 45.9% 25.0% 29.1% 39.5% 38.1% 22.4% 40.1% 23.6% 36.3% 48.9% 15.1% 36.0% 37.9% 25.0% 37.1% Yes No Hard to tell Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  27. 27. 16. Will Minsk agreements solve a problem of conflict in the Donbas? 19.3% 52.3% 28.4% Yes No Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  28. 28. 16. Will Minsk agreements solve a problem of conflict in the Donbas? 19.3% 52.3% 28.4% Yes No Hard to tell 21.8% 61.5% 16.7% November 2016 May 2016 Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  29. 29. 19.2% 56.2% 24.6% 19.4% 49.1% 31.5% Gender Male Female 11.4% 47.4% 41.1% 17.7% 57.8% 24.5% 18.4% 52.3% 29.2% 22.5% 50.9% 26.5% Yes No Hard to tell Age 18-24 25-34 35-49 50 + 16. Will Minsk agreements solve a problem of conflict in the Donbas? BREAKDOWN BY AGE AND GENDER, % Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  30. 30. 17. In your opinion, when will the conflict in the Donbas end? 7.1% 21.7% 16.8% 37.5% 3.1% 13.7% Within a year In the nearest 2-3 years In 5 years This conflict will be frozen and the solution won't be found for decade Other Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  31. 31. 6.9% 20.7% 15.6% 40.9% 3.1% 12.8% 7.6% 24.0% 19.2% 30.6% 3.0% 15.6% Within a year In the nearest 2-3 years In 5 years This conflict will be frozen and the solution won't be found for decade Other Hard to tell Type of settlement Urban Rural 17. In your opinion, when will the conflict in the Donbas end? BREAKDOWN BY TYPE OF SETTLEMENT AND REGION, % 6.1% 10.7% 17.9% 41.3% 5.1% 18.9% 4.8% 29.0% 21.5% 36.1% 1.4% 7.3% 11.8% 19.8% 12.7% 42.8% 2.4% 10.6% 5.2% 19.2% 17.9% 41.5% 1.6% 14.6% 8.3% 23.9% 12.1% 25.0% 7.2% 23.5% Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  32. 32. 18. The West demands that Ukraine holds elections in the “LDNR” before the border with Russia is taken under control. How should Ukraine act? 10.8% 26.4% 45.7% 2.1% 14.9% Ukraine should comply with this demand Ukraine should not comply with this demand until the border with Russia is taken under control There is no sence at all for Ukraine to hold elections on the occupied territories Other Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  33. 33. 18. The West demands that Ukraine holds elections in the “LDNR” before the border with Russia is taken under control. How should Ukraine act? BREAKDOWN BY REGION, % 7.1% 24.0% 53.6% 3.6% 11.7% 7.8% 31.5% 50.7% 1.6% 8.4% 7.1% 26.8% 51.3% 0.6% 14.2% 19.8% 22.3% 37.4% 1.9% 18.7% 11.0% 25.0% 36.0% 4.2% 23.9% Ukraine should comply with this demand Ukraine should not comply with this demand until the border with Russia is taken under control There is no sence at all for Ukraine to hold elections on the occupied territories Other Hard to tell Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  34. 34. 19. How should Ukraine solve the problem of the occupied Donbas territories? 11.1% 20.0% 7.1% 21.0% 19.6% 21.1% Ukriane should grant "LNR-DNR" autonomy in line with the Minsk agreements A referendum should be held on recognition of the "LNR" and "DNR" as the occupied territories with termination of social transfers and other liabilities A referendum should be held on recognition of the "LNR" and "DNR" recognition as the independent states Nothing should be changed fundamentally waiting until the situation changes for the better Occupied Donbas territories should be attempted to be brought back by force Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  35. 35. 15.4% 25.8% 20.9% 18.2% 5.2% 14.4% 19. How should Ukraine solve the problem of the occupied Donbas territories? 21.0% 20.0% 19.6% 11.1% 7.1% 21.1% Nothing should be changed fundamentally waiting until the situation changes for the better A referendum should be held on recognition of the "LNR" and "DNR" as the occupied territories with termination of social transfers and other liabilities Occupied Donbas territories should be attempted to be brought back by force Ukriane should grant "LNR-DNR" autonomy in line with the Minsk agreements A referendum should be held on recognition of the "LNR" and "DNR" recognition as the independent states Hard to tell November 2016 May 2016 Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  36. 36. 19. How should Ukraine solve the problem of the occupied Donbas territories? BREAKDOWN BY REGION, % 9.2% 14.8% 16.3% 23.5% 12.8% 23.5% 5.9% 26.3% 4.3% 24.2% 25.1% 14.2% 8.0% 24.8% 5.9% 19.2% 23.6% 18.6% 17.0% 12.4% 8.0% 19.8% 18.1% 24.7% 17.0% 18.2% 5.3% 18.2% 12.1% 29.2% Ukriane should grant "LNR-DNR" autonomy in line with the Minsk agreements A referendum should be held on recognition of the "LNR" and "DNR" as the occupied territories with termination of social transfers and other liabilities A referendum should be held on recognition of the "LNR" and "DNR" recognition as the independent states Nothing should be changed fundamentally waiting until the situation changes for the better Occupied Donbas territories should be attempted to be brought back by force Hard to tell Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  37. 37. 20. If there was a referendum to be held tomorrow on recognition of "LDNR" as occupied territories with termination of social transfers and other liabilities, how would you vote? 38.3% 20.0% 27.2% 14.6% Yes, I would support this initiative No, I would not support this initiative I would not participate in such a referendum Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  38. 38. 20. If there was a referendum to be held tomorrow on recognition of "LDNR" as occupied territories with termination of social transfers and other liabilities, how would you vote? 38.3% 20.0% 27.2% 14.6% Yes, I would support this initiative No, I would not support this initiative I would not participate in such a referendum Hard to tell 42.2% 24.6% 23.1% 10.1% November 2016 May 2016 Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  39. 39. 36.1% 21.5% 28.8% 13.6% 42.8% 16.9% 23.8% 16.5% Yes, I would support this initiative No, I would not support this initiative I would not participate in such a referendum Hard to tell Type of settlement Urban Rural 20. If there was a referendum to be held tomorrow on recognition of "LDNR" as occupied territories with termination of social transfers and other liabilities, how would you vote? BREAKDOWN BY TYPE OF SETTLEMENT AND REGION, % 21.9% 20.9% 35.7% 21.4% 49.5% 18.5% 21.5% 10.5% 38.6% 18.9% 33.9% 8.6% 33.0% 24.7% 29.1% 13.2% 38.6% 16.7% 18.9% 25.8% Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  40. 40. 21. In your opinion, presence of a large number of people at the funeral of "Motorola" militiaman in Donetsk is the evidence of: 27.7% 18.7% 17.5% 15.9% 11.8% 7.3% 1.1% Tt is difficult to understand what is happening there Occupation authorities drove state employees together to show a desired TV picture for the Kremlin This indicates that some of the people support the invaders, but this does not mean that everyone supports them We should not believe what the invaders broadcast Own identity hostile to Ukraine is being formed of the occupied territory of Donbas Hard to tell Other Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  41. 41. 21. In your opinion, presence of a large number of people at the funeral of "Motorola" militiaman in Donetsk is the evidence of: BREAKDOWN BY REGION, % 29.6% 13.3% 18.4% 16.8% 12.2% 9.7% 0.0% 22.6% 24.7% 18.9% 17.1% 12.8% 3.7% 0.2% 29.5% 15.3% 22.4% 15.0% 9.1% 6.8% 1.8% 26.4% 20.3% 15.9% 15.9% 11.5% 9.3% 0.5% 34.1% 15.2% 10.2% 14.4% 13.6% 9.5% 3.0% Tt is difficult to understand what is happening there Occupation authorities drove state employees together to show a desired TV picture for the Kremlin This indicates that some of the people support the invaders, but this does not mean that everyone supports them We should not believe what the invaders broadcast Own identity hostile to Ukraine is being formed of the occupied territory of Donbas Hard to tell Other Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Donbas issue Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  42. 42. FUTURE AND THE ASSESSMENT OF HIGH-PROFILE EVENTS
  43. 43. Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Conclusions: Future and the assessment of high-profile events ● In anticipation of 2017 respondents pondered over events that might happen next year. 37.2% don't expect any fundamental changes, but 23.9% believe that next year early parliamentary elections will be held, and 17.2% think that there will be early presidential election, whereas 7.6% predict a violent overthrow of Poroshenko. One in ten anticipates that in 2017 Russia will begin a new military advance in Ukraine. Comfortingly, there is a part of the respondents optimistic about the next year: 21.6% expect the emergence of new political leaders who will change the country for the better, and 12.1% expect that there will be stabilization and economic growth in Ukraine. ● However, 45.4% of respondents think that early election to the Verkhovna Rada won't happen anytime soon, although 37.7% are convinced of its necessity. ● If one looks at a longer term, 21.2% of respondents believe that in 15 years Ukraine will be a part of the European Union and will reach the level of development of countries of the Central Europe; 13.7% think that Ukraine will be strong non-aligned country with a strong economics, army and navy; 8.5% suppose that Ukraine will create a military and economic alliance with Poland, Lithuania and other countries of the Baltic- Black Sea region. However, according to 18.1% Ukraine will remain just as corrupt and weak as today; 10.9% expect that Ukraine will be torn into parts by its neighbors; 6.4% think that Ukraine will be either completely or partially absorbed by Russia. Thus, 43.4% of respondents are poised for positive changes within next 15 years, and 35.4% - for negative ones. ● Hope for a better future for Ukraine originates in every third respondent from the possibility of appearance of a new generation of politicians and public figures (33.1%), in every tenth - strengthening of Ukraine's relations with the West (10.9%). For 8% of Ukrainian nation it is connected to our maturing in 25 years of independence, as well as weakening of the oligarchs. For 6% this hope is tied with a rapid spread of information and technology revolution that creates new opportunities. However, one in five respondents sees no prospects for a better future of Ukraine. ● The biggest threat to the future of Ukraine as according to 71% of respondents is corruption, half of the respondents added politicians and oligarchs to the threats, 30% included Russia, and 23% of respondents believe that the threat to Ukraine is Ukrainians themselves.
  44. 44. 22. In your opinion, which of these events will happen in Ukraine in 2017? 23.9% 21.6% 17.2% 12.1% 10.7% 7.6% 37.2% 1.8% 9.7% Early elections to the Verkhovna Rada New political leaders will emerge and start changing the country for the better Early presidential elections will be held Stabilization and economic growth will begin Russia will start a new military advance in Ukraine A violent overthrow of Petro Poroshenko will take place Nothing will change fundamentally Other Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Future and the assessment of high-profile events Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  45. 45. 22. In your opinion, which of these events will happen in Ukraine in 2017? BREAKDOWN BY AGE, % 21.1% 9.7% 8.0% 10.3% 17.7% 22.3% 33.7% 1.1% 14.9% 24.5% 20.5% 9.3% 12.7% 10.9% 18.6% 37.3% 0.9% 8.4% 23.6% 17.2% 10.3% 7.6% 11.3% 22.6% 37.8% 2.2% 8.8% 24.5% 17.6% 5.0% 11.6% 11.6% 22.2% 37.7% 2.2% 9.6% Early elections to the Verkhovna Rada Early presidential elections will be held A violent overthrow of Petro Poroshenko will take place Russia will start a new military advance in Ukraine Stabilization and economic growth will begin New political leaders will emerge and start changing the country for the better Nothing will change fundamentally Other Hard to tell 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Future and the assessment of high-profile events Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  46. 46. 26.5% 18.7% 7.6% 9.2% 12.3% 21.2% 39.3% 2.0% 8.4% 18.6% 14.3% 7.4% 13.7% 11.6% 22.4% 32.9% 1.3% 12.5% Early elections to the Verkhovna Rada Early presidential elections will be held A violent overthrow of Petro Poroshenko will take place Russia will start a new military advance in Ukraine Stabilization and economic growth will begin New political leaders will emerge and start changing the country for the… Nothing will change fundamentally Other Hard to tell Type of settlement Urban Rural 22. In your opinion, which of these events will happen in Ukraine in 2017? BREAKDOWN BY TYPE OF SETTLEMENT AND REGION, % 27.6% 12.8% 6.6% 2.6% 6.1% 13.8% 33.2% 4.6% 15.3% 20.1% 16.2% 9.4% 12.1% 16.4% 26.0% 34.7% 0.2% 8.9% 25.7% 18.6% 5.3% 9.4% 15.0% 25.1% 44.8% 2.1% 7.1% 24.2% 19.8% 8.0% 11.5% 8.5% 17.6% 39.3% 0.5% 10.7% 25.0% 17.0% 7.6% 14.8% 10.2% 21.2% 31.8% 3.8% 9.1% Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Future and the assessment of high-profile events Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  47. 47. 37.7% 45.4% 16.9% Yes No Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Future and the assessment of high-profile events Reference group: all respondents, n=2000 23. In your opinion, is there a need of early elections of the Verkhovna Rada?
  48. 48. 39.9% 45.0% 15.1% 33.1% 46.2% 20.7% Yes No Hard to tell Type of settlement Urban Rural 23. In your opinion, is there a need of early elections of the Verkhovna Rada? BREAKDOWN BY TYPE OF SETTLEMENT AND REGION, % 37.8% 41.8% 20.4% 32.0% 58.0% 10.0% 45.1% 37.5% 17.4% 34.9% 47.5% 17.6% 41.3% 34.5% 24.2% Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Future and the assessment of high-profile events Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  49. 49. 33.1% 10.9% 8.1% 5.9% 5.6% 8.2% 21.9% 1.6% 4.7% Emergence of a new generation of politicians and public figures Strengthening of Ukraine's relations with the West Maturing of the Ukrainian nation in 25 years of independence Rapid spread of information, everything secret becomes rapidly revealed Technology revolution that creates new opportunities Weakening of the oligarchs I see no prospects for a better future of Ukraine Other Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Future and the assessment of high-profile events Reference group: all respondents, n=2000 24. What gives you hope for a better future for Ukraine?
  50. 50. 24. What gives you hope for a better future for Ukraine? BREAKDOWN BY REGION, % 21.4% 8.7% 4.1% 7.7% 5.1% 2.6% 36.7% 5.1% 8.7% 34.5% 12.1% 11.4% 6.8% 5.5% 6.6% 19.2% 1.1% 2.7% 39.2% 15.6% 5.6% 2.9% 6.2% 5.9% 19.8% 1.8% 2.9% 30.2% 8.2% 8.2% 7.4% 5.8% 12.9% 20.3% 0.5% 6.3% 35.6% 8.0% 8.7% 4.9% 4.9% 11.4% 20.5% 1.1% 4.9% Emergence of a new generation of politicians and public figures Strengthening of Ukraine's relations with the West Maturing of the Ukrainian nation in 25 years of independence Rapid spread of information, everything secret becomes rapidly revealed Technology revolution that creates new opportunities Weakening of the oligarchs I see no prospects for a better future of Ukraine Other Hard to tell Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Future and the assessment of high-profile events Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  51. 51. 21.2% 18.1% 13.7% 10.9% 8.5% 6.4% 3.1% 18.2% Ukraine will be a part of the European Union and will reach the level of development of countries of the Central Europe Ukraine will remain just as corrupt and weak as today Ukraine will be a strong non-aligned country with a strong economics, army and navy Ukraine will be torn into parts by its neighbors Ukraine will create a military and economic alliance with Poland, Lithuania and other countries of the Baltic-Black Sea region Ukraine will be either completely or partially absorbed by Russia Other Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Future and the assessment of high-profile events 26. In your opinion, what Ukraine will be like in 15 years? Reference group: all respondents, n=2000 Positive changes Negative changes 43,4% 35,4%
  52. 52. 26. In your opinion, what Ukraine will be like in 15 years? BREAKDOWN BY AGE, % 32.6% 10.9% 2.9% 18.9% 5.7% 10.9% 4.6% 13.7% 22.4% 14.6% 6.8% 17.1% 9.0% 9.6% 3.1% 17.4% 18.9% 16.0% 5.4% 21.1% 8.6% 11.1% 2.2% 16.7% 19.1% 12.6% 7.6% 16.6% 8.9% 11.3% 3.3% 20.5% Ukraine will be a part of the European Union and will reach the level of development of countries of the Central Europe Ukraine will remain just as corrupt and weak as today Ukraine will be a strong non-aligned country with a strong economics, army and navy Ukraine will be torn into parts by its neighbors Ukraine will create a military and economic alliance with Poland, Lithuania and other countries of the Baltic-Black Sea region Ukraine will be either completely or partially absorbed by Russia Other Hard to tell 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Future and the assessment of high-profile events Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  53. 53. 6.6% 8.7% 7.7% 25.5% 7.7% 10.2% 4.1% 29.6% 26.7% 13.5% 3.9% 18.0% 10.5% 12.6% 3.4% 11.4% 25.1% 12.1% 5.0% 22.7% 10.0% 6.2% 2.4% 16.5% 19.2% 12.9% 11.3% 13.2% 6.3% 16.8% 0.3% 20.1% 20.5% 20.8% 4.5% 13.6% 6.8% 6.4% 6.8% 20.5% Ukraine will be a part of the European Union and will reach the level of development of countries of the Central Europe Ukraine will remain just as corrupt and weak as today Ukraine will be a strong non-aligned country with a strong economics, army and navy Ukraine will be torn into parts by its neighbors Ukraine will create a military and economic alliance with Poland, Lithuania and other countries of the Baltic-Black Sea region Ukraine will be either completely or partially absorbed by Russia Other (please specify) Hard to tell Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Future and the assessment of high-profile events 26. In your opinion, what Ukraine will be like in 15 years? BREAKDOWN BY REGION, % Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  54. 54. 27. What (or who) is the biggest threat to the future of Ukraine? 71.0% 49.6% 48.4% 30.2% 23.1% 9.1% 5.6% 4.1% 4.1% 1.5% 1.6% 2.4% Corruption Politicians Oligarchs Russia Ukrainians themselves Environmental problems Collapse of the infrastructure Technological innovations which make us uncompetitive Expansion of the West Islamic extremists Other Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Future and the assessment of high-profile events Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  55. 55. 27. What (or who) is the biggest threat to the future of Ukraine? BREAKDOWN BY REGION, % 59.7% 32.7% 40.8% 20.4% 31.6% 0.5% 10.2% 6.1% 6.6% 8.2% 1.5% 6.6% 74.0% 47.7% 49.3% 41.1% 24.2% 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 3.0% 10.3% 0.7% 0.2% 77.3% 43.4% 49.0% 38.3% 19.8% 1.2% 8.8% 4.1% 2.7% 12.1% 0.9% 1.8% 68.1% 61.3% 52.5% 22.0% 26.6% 1.6% 4.9% 5.2% 5.2% 6.6% 0.5% 2.5% 70.1% 50.0% 53.4% 20.5% 14.4% 0.8% 4.2% 3.8% 4.2% 7.2% 5.7% 3.4% Corruption Politicians Oligarchs Russia Ukrainians themselves Islamic extremists Collapse of the infrastructure Technological innovations which make us uncompetitive Expansion of the West Environmental problems Other Hard to tell Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Future and the assessment of high-profile events Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  56. 56. ASSESSMENT OF THE MAIDAN EVENTS
  57. 57. Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Conclusions: Assessment of the Maidan events ● Almost every fourth respondent believes it is too early to sum up the Revolution of dignity and the events on the Maidan since the revolution is not over yet. One in five indicated that did not support Maidan either back then or today, same number of respondents noted that it was a great historic event, which marked a beginning of change for the better, and same number replied that the regime of Yanukovych brought people to despair, therefore there was no alternative left. ● Comparing to the results of the survey in May, the number of those who chose the answer "Yanukovych's regime brought people to despair, therefore there was no alternative left" significantly decreased - from 28% to 20%. It can be also noted that there was less of those who believe that it is too early to talk about results because the revolution is not over (from 26.3% to 23.5%), and those who think that Maidan was a special operation of Russian or Western intelligence services (from 14.4 % to 11.4%); but the number of those who currently can not express their assessment of these events increased (from 4.1% to 6.7%).
  58. 58. 28. How do you assess the Maidan events and the Revolution of dignity? 23.5% 21.7% 21.0% 19.9% 17.6% 12.1% 6.2% 5.2% 0.7% 6.7% Revolution is not over yet, therefore it is too early to talk about the conclusions I did not support Maidan either back then or today It was a great historic event, which marked a beginning of change for the better Regime of Yanukovych brought people to despair, therefore there was no alternative left We have done everything right but did not realise the consequences in full I would not have supported Maidan if I had known what the situation would be today This was a special operation of Russian intelligence services to make a last straw on Ukraine This was a special operation of the West Other Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Future and the assessment of high-profile events Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  59. 59. 26.3% 20.3% 20.3% 28.3% 17.7% 13.4% 6.8% 7.6% 0.7% 4.1% 28. How do you assess the Maidan events and the Revolution of dignity? 23.5% 21.7% 21.0% 19.9% 17.6% 12.1% 6.2% 5.2% 0.7% 6.7% Revolution is not over yet, therefore it is too early to talk about the conclusions I did not support Maidan either back then or today It was a great historic event, which marked a beginning of change for the better Regime of Yanukovych brought people to despair, therefore there was no alternative left We have done everything right but did not realise the consequences in full I would not have supported Maidan if I had known what the situation would be today This was a special operation of Russian intelligence services This was a special operation of the West Other Hard to tell November 2016 May 2016 Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Future and the assessment of high-profile events Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  60. 60. 5.6% 18.4% 13.8% 14.3% 5.6% 4.1% 4.6% 29.6% 1.0% 18.4% 36.5% 29.5% 24.0% 22.8% 10.3% 5.3% 3.2% 11.2% 1.1% 1.4% 22.1% 23.0% 22.1% 18.0% 15.0% 5.3% 6.2% 20.6% 0.0% 3.5% 14.3% 23.1% 11.8% 15.9% 14.0% 9.1% 7.1% 28.6% 0.0% 3.8% 14.4% 18.9% 26.1% 13.3% 13.3% 6.4% 5.3% 25.0% 1.5% 14.8% Region East West North Center South 19.3% 23.0% 19.7% 17.4% 12.3% 6.4% 6.2% 23.4% 0.7% 5.6% 24.3% 24.7% 20.3% 18.1% 11.6% 5.7% 3.2% 18.1% 0.6% 8.9% It was a great historic event, which marked a beginning of change for the better Revolution is not over yet, therefore it is too early to talk about the conclusions Regime of Yanukovych brought people to despair, therefore there was no alternative left We have done everything right but did not realise the consequences in full I would not have supported Maidan if I had known what the situation would be today This was a special operation of Russian intelligence services This was a special operation of the West I did not support Maidan either back then or today Other Hard to tell Type of settlement Urban Rural 28. How do you assess the Maidan events and the Revolution of dignity? BREAKDOWN BY TYPE OF SETTLEMENT AND REGION, % Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Future and the assessment of high-profile events Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  61. 61. SOCIAL TENSION
  62. 62. Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Conclusions: Social tension (1) ● Among respondents there still is a category of people ready to suffer deterioration of their circumstances for the sake of real reform for a the year (19.9%), 2-3 years (15.7%) and even 3-5 years (5.6%). However, 58.8% of respondents say they can not endure it any longer. It should be noted that according to figures there was no significant dynamics over the past six months. ● There is a clear dependence of the underlying strength on age: the older the respondents are, the greater is the percentage of those who are no longer able to endure the deterioration. Most of such are among those interviewed of a senior age group - 64.1%. However, 35.9% of respondents aged 50 years and more are ready to suffer little longer provided the real reforms are carried out. Among young people under 35, this figure is somewhat different - half of them can no longer endure; but same much people are willing to endure the unfavorable situation: 23% - for a year, 16%- for 2-3 years, and 10% - for 3-5 years. ● In a regional context it is the most difficult to endure worsening of their conditions waiting for the reforms for inhabitants of the South (73.1%) and East (67.9%). A somewhat larger is the strength among residents of the Western Region. ● Over the past six months, according to our respondents the threat of social upheaval and its escalation into a civil conflict has increased: in May, 63.9% of respondents admitted the possibility of social upheaval (22.4% of them indicated that there is a high likelihood of such a threat, and 41.5 % - low probability), in November there was only 68.3% of such respondents, and significantly increased the proportion of those who noted a high probability of the threat of a social explosion - 39.2%; 29.1% of respondents indicated a low probability of this threat. Remarkably, 30.2% of respondents indicated that there is no such threat in May, while in November it was only 21%. ● It is notable that the respondents of the Central and the Northern regions indicated the threat of a social upheaval more frequently (76.1% and 73.5%, respectively), and the least frequently - those of the Eastern region (58.7%).
  63. 63. Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Висновки: Social tension (2) ● Compared to the results of the May survey, the share of those who believe that forceful upheaval in Ukraine would be supported by most or half of the population increased (from 29% to 40.5%). If in May 61% of respondents noted that it would not be supported or would be supported by a small minority of the population, in November the number of respondents who think same way considerably decreased - to 45.1%. Thus, we pinpoint a growth of the population's discontent with the situation in the country, together with the increasing social tension. ● But the idea of the dictatorship of a tough leader at the head of state fell short of public support: in May it was supported by 41.3% of the respondents, whereas in November - only by 34.5%. The older the respondents are, the greater is the percentage of supporters of this idea: if among youth aged18-24 this number is 28.6%, among respondents aged 50 and over - it is 38.2%. ● Also, there was a 10% reduction in a number of supporters of a military dictatorship under the condition that it would provide real growth of living standards, fight with corruption, and stability (32.4% in November).
  64. 64. 19.9% 15.7% 5.6% 58.8% 1 year 2-3 years 3-5 years I can not endure it any longer Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Social tension 29. For how long are you ready to endue the worsening conditions for the sake of implementation of real reforms in Ukraine? Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  65. 65. 19.9% 15.7% 5.6% 58.8% 1 year 2-3 years 3-5 years I can not endure it any longer 19.4% 13.4% 7.3% 57.0% November 2016 May 2016 Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Social tension 29. For how long are you ready to endue the worsening conditions for the sake of implementation of real reforms in Ukraine? Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  66. 66. 20.7% 13.1% 5.5% 60.7% 18.4% 21.1% 5.7% 54.8% Рiк 2-3 роки 3-5 рокiв Немає уже можливостi терпiти Type of settlement Місто Село 29. For how long are you ready to endue the worsening conditions for the sake of implementation of real reforms in Ukraine? BREAKDOWN BY TYPE OF SETTLEMENT AND REGION, % 15.3% 11.2% 5.6% 67.9% 22.6% 20.3% 8.2% 48.9% 20.1% 20.1% 5.3% 54.6% 21.4% 14.0% 5.2% 59.3% 16.7% 8.3% 1.9% 73.1% Region Східний Західний Північний Центральний Південний Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Social tension Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  67. 67. 21.6% 17.1% 6.3% 55.1% 18.6% 14.6% 5.0% 61.8% Gender Male Female 27.4% 21.1% 4.0% 47.4% 21.7% 19.3% 5.3% 53.7% 18.9% 15.5% 7.1% 58.5% 17.8% 12.9% 5.2% 64.1% 1 year 2-3 years 3-5 years I can not endure it any longer Age 18-24 25-34 35-49 50 + Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Social tension 29. For how long are you ready to endue the worsening conditions for the sake of implementation of real reforms in Ukraine? BREAKDOWN BY AGE AND GENDER, % Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  68. 68. 30. In your opinion, how big is a threat of a social upheaval in Ukraine and its and its escalation into a civil conflict (war)? 39.2% 29.1% 21.0% 10.7% There is a high probability of this threat There is a low probability of this threat I think there is no such threat Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Social tension Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  69. 69. 30. In your opinion, how big is a threat of a social upheaval in Ukraine and its and its escalation into a civil conflict (war)? BREAKDOWN BY REGION, % 26.0% 32.7% 27.0% 14.3% 39.5% 25.3% 30.1% 5.0% 44.0% 29.5% 17.4% 9.1% 42.6% 33.5% 14.0% 9.9% 37.5% 26.1% 15.9% 20.5% There is a high probability of this threat There is a low probability of this threat I think there is no such threat Hard to tell Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Social tension Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  70. 70. 31. In your opinion, how many people are ready to support a forceful upheaval in Ukraine? 17.9% 22.6% 36.5% 8.6% 14.4% Yes, a majority of population Yes, a half of population No, it would be supported by a minority of population No, it would not be supported by anyone Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Social tension Reference group: all respondents, n=2000 40,5%
  71. 71. 17.9% 22.6% 36.5% 8.6% 14.4% Yes, a majority of population Yes, a half of population No, it would be supported by a minority of population No, it would not be supported by anyone Hard to tell 31. In your opinion, how many people are ready to support a forceful upheaval in Ukraine? 9.8% 19.4% 39.1% 21.5% 10.2% November 2016 May 2016 Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Social tension Reference group: all respondents, n=2000 40,5% 29,2%
  72. 72. 31. In your opinion, how many people are ready to support a forceful upheaval in Ukraine? BREAKDOWN BY REGION AND GENDER, % 5.1% 19.4% 37.8% 17.9% 19.9% 17.1% 23.5% 40.2% 11.2% 8.0% 18.0% 24.8% 39.5% 5.6% 12.1% 27.7% 17.9% 34.3% 7.7% 12.4% 15.2% 27.3% 28.4% 2.3% 26.9% Yes, a majority of population Yes, a half of population No, it would be supported by a minority of population No, it would not be supported by anyone Hard to tell Region East West North Center South n=2000 База: всі респонденти Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Social tension Reference group: all respondents, n=2000 18.9% 23.5% 37.4% 6.7% 13.5% 17.1% 21.9% 35.7% 10.1% 15.2% Gender Male Female
  73. 73. 32. Do you agree that nowadays Ukraine needs a dictatorship with a tough leader at the head of state? 34.5% 48.9% 16.6% Yes No Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Social tension Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  74. 74. 34.5% 48.9% 16.6% Yes No Hard to tell 41.3% 52.5% 6.2% November 2016 May 2016 Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Social tension Reference group: all respondents, n=2000 32. Do you agree that nowadays Ukraine needs a dictatorship with a tough leader at the head of state?
  75. 75. 32. Do you agree that nowadays Ukraine needs a dictatorship with a tough leader at the head of state? BREAKDOWN BY REGION, % 32.7% 43.9% 23.5% 30.4% 60.5% 9.1% 38.1% 48.4% 13.6% 37.4% 48.9% 13.7% 34.5% 34.1% 31.4% Yes No Hard to tell Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Social tension Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  76. 76. 33. Would you support a military dictatorship if it provides a real growth of living standards, fight with corruption, and stability? 32.4% 50.7% 16.9% Yes No Hard to tell Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Social tension Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  77. 77. 32.4% 50.7% 16.9% Yes No Hard to tell 33. Would you support a military dictatorship if it provides a real growth of living standards, fight with corruption, and stability? 41.6% 51.9% 6.5% November 2016 May 2016 Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Social tension Reference group: all respondents, n=2000
  78. 78. 33. Would you support a military dictatorship if it provides a real growth of living standards, fight with corruption, and stability? BREAKDOWN BY REGION, % 23.5% 57.1% 19.4% 33.3% 57.8% 8.9% 33.6% 49.6% 16.8% 37.6% 47.0% 15.4% 28.8% 40.9% 30.3% Yes No Hard to tell Region East West North Center South Socio-political survey, 2nd wave Social tension Reference group: all respondents, n=2000

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