In anticipation of 2017 respondents pondered over events that might happen next year. 37.2% don't expect any fundamental changes, but 23.9% believe that next year early parliamentary elections will be held, and 17.2% think that there will be early presidential election, whereas 7.6% predict a violent overthrow of Poroshenko. One in ten anticipates that in 2017 Russia will begin a new military advance in Ukraine. Comfortingly, there is a part of the respondents optimistic about the next year: 21.6% expect the emergence of new political leaders who will change the country for the better, and 12.1% expect that there will be stabilization and economic growth in Ukraine.
2. Socio-political survey, 2nd wave
Conclusions: Future and the assessment of high-profile events
● In anticipation of 2017 respondents pondered over events that might happen next year. 37.2% don't
expect any fundamental changes, but 23.9% believe that next year early parliamentary elections will be
held, and 17.2% think that there will be early presidential election, whereas 7.6% predict a violent
overthrow of Poroshenko. One in ten anticipates that in 2017 Russia will begin a new military advance in
Ukraine. Comfortingly, there is a part of the respondents optimistic about the next year: 21.6% expect
the emergence of new political leaders who will change the country for the better, and 12.1% expect that
there will be stabilization and economic growth in Ukraine.
● However, 45.4% of respondents think that early election to the Verkhovna Rada won't happen anytime
soon, although 37.7% are convinced of its necessity.
● If one looks at a longer term, 21.2% of respondents believe that in 15 years Ukraine will be a part of the
European Union and will reach the level of development of countries of the Central Europe; 13.7% think
that Ukraine will be strong non-aligned country with a strong economics, army and navy; 8.5% suppose
that Ukraine will create a military and economic alliance with Poland, Lithuania and other countries of
the Baltic-Black Sea region. However, according to 18.1% Ukraine will remain just as corrupt and weak as
today; 10.9% expect that Ukraine will be torn into parts by its neighbors; 6.4% think that Ukraine will be
either completely or partially absorbed by Russia. Thus, 43.4% of respondents are poised for positive
changes within next 15 years, and 35.4% - for negative ones.
● Hope for a better future for Ukraine originates in every third respondent from the possibility of
appearance of a new generation of politicians and public figures (33.1%), in every tenth - strengthening
of Ukraine's relations with the West (10.9%). For 8% of Ukrainian nation it is connected to our maturing
in 25 years of independence, as well as weakening of the oligarchs. For 6% this hope is tied with a rapid
spread of information and technology revolution that creates new opportunities. However, one in five
respondents sees no prospects for a better future of Ukraine.
● The biggest threat to the future of Ukraine as according to 71% of respondents is corruption, half of the
3. 22. In your opinion, which of these events will happen in Ukraine in 2017?
23.9%
21.6%
17.2%
12.1%
10.7%
7.6%
37.2%
1.8%
9.7%
Early elections to the Verkhovna Rada
New political leaders will emerge and
start changing the country for the better
Early presidential elections will be held
Stabilization and economic growth will
begin
Russia will start a new military advance in
Ukraine
A violent overthrow of Petro Poroshenko
will take place
Nothing will change fundamentally
Other
Hard to tell
Socio-political survey, 2nd wave
Future and the assessment of high-profile
events
Reference group: all
respondents, n=2000
4. 22. In your opinion, which of these events will happen in Ukraine in 2017?
BREAKDOWN BY AGE, %
21.1%
9.7%
8.0%
10.3%
17.7%
22.3%
33.7%
1.1%
14.9%
24.5%
20.5%
9.3%
12.7%
10.9%
18.6%
37.3%
0.9%
8.4%
23.6%
17.2%
10.3%
7.6%
11.3%
22.6%
37.8%
2.2%
8.8%
24.5%
17.6%
5.0%
11.6%
11.6%
22.2%
37.7%
2.2%
9.6%
Early elections to the Verkhovna Rada
Early presidential elections will be held
A violent overthrow of Petro Poroshenko
will take place
Russia will start a new military advance in
Ukraine
Stabilization and economic growth will
begin
New political leaders will emerge and
start changing the country for the better
Nothing will change fundamentally
Other
Hard to tell
18-24 25-34 35-49 50+
Socio-political survey, 2nd wave
Future and the assessment of high-profile
events
Reference group: all
respondents, n=2000
5. 26.5%
18.7%
7.6%
9.2%
12.3%
21.2%
39.3%
2.0%
8.4%
18.6%
14.3%
7.4%
13.7%
11.6%
22.4%
32.9%
1.3%
12.5%
Early elections to the
Verkhovna Rada
Early presidential elections
will be held
A violent overthrow of
Petro Poroshenko will…
Russia will start a new
military advance in Ukraine
Stabilization and economic
growth will begin
New political leaders will
emerge and start…
Nothing will change
fundamentally
Other
Hard to tell
Type of settlement
Urban Rural
22. In your opinion, which of these events will happen in Ukraine in 2017?
BREAKDOWN BY TYPE OF SETTLEMENT AND REGION, %
27.6%
12.8%
6.6%
2.6%
6.1%
13.8%
33.2%
4.6%
15.3%
20.1%
16.2%
9.4%
12.1%
16.4%
26.0%
34.7%
0.2%
8.9%
25.7%
18.6%
5.3%
9.4%
15.0%
25.1%
44.8%
2.1%
7.1%
24.2%
19.8%
8.0%
11.5%
8.5%
17.6%
39.3%
0.5%
10.7%
25.0%
17.0%
7.6%
14.8%
10.2%
21.2%
31.8%
3.8%
9.1%
Region
East West North Center South
Socio-political survey, 2nd wave
Future and the assessment of high-profile
events
Reference group: all
respondents, n=2000
6. 37.7%
45.4%
16.9%
Yes No Hard to tell
Socio-political survey, 2nd wave
Future and the assessment of high-profile
events
Reference group: all
respondents, n=2000
23. In your opinion, is there a need of early elections of the Verkhovna
Rada?
7. 39.9%
45.0%
15.1%
33.1%
46.2%
20.7%
Yes
No
Hard to tell
Type of settlement
Urban Rural
23. In your opinion, is there a need of early elections of the Verkhovna
Rada?
BREAKDOWN BY TYPE OF SETTLEMENT AND REGION, %
37.8%
41.8%
20.4%
32.0%
58.0%
10.0%
45.1%
37.5%
17.4%
34.9%
47.5%
17.6%
41.3%
34.5%
24.2%
Region
East West North Center South
Socio-political survey, 2nd wave
Future and the assessment of high-profile
events
Reference group: all
respondents, n=2000
8. 33.1%
10.9%
8.1%
5.9%
5.6%
8.2%
21.9%
1.6%
4.7%
Emergence of a new generation of
politicians and public figures
Strengthening of Ukraine's relations with
the West
Maturing of the Ukrainian nation in 25
years of independence
Rapid spread of information, everything
secret becomes rapidly revealed
Technology revolution that creates new
opportunities
Weakening of the oligarchs
I see no prospects for a better future of
Ukraine
Other
Hard to tell
Socio-political survey, 2nd wave
Future and the assessment of high-profile
events
Reference group: all
respondents, n=2000
24. What gives you hope for a better future for Ukraine?
9. 24. What gives you hope for a better future for Ukraine?
BREAKDOWN BY REGION, %
21.4%
8.7%
4.1%
7.7%
5.1%
2.6%
36.7%
5.1%
8.7%
34.5%
12.1%
11.4%
6.8%
5.5%
6.6%
19.2%
1.1%
2.7%
39.2%
15.6%
5.6%
2.9%
6.2%
5.9%
19.8%
1.8%
2.9%
30.2%
8.2%
8.2%
7.4%
5.8%
12.9%
20.3%
0.5%
6.3%
35.6%
8.0%
8.7%
4.9%
4.9%
11.4%
20.5%
1.1%
4.9%
Emergence of a new generation of politicians and
public figures
Strengthening of Ukraine's relations with the West
Maturing of the Ukrainian nation in 25 years of
independence
Rapid spread of information, everything secret
becomes rapidly revealed
Technology revolution that creates new
opportunities
Weakening of the oligarchs
I see no prospects for a better future of Ukraine
Other
Hard to tell
Region
East West North Center South
Socio-political survey, 2nd wave
Future and the assessment of high-profile
events
Reference group: all
respondents, n=2000
10. 21.2%
18.1%
13.7%
10.9%
8.5%
6.4%
3.1%
18.2%
Ukraine will be a part of the European Union and will
reach the level of development of countries of the
Central Europe
Ukraine will remain just as corrupt and weak as today
Ukraine will be a strong non-aligned country with a
strong economics, army and navy
Ukraine will be torn into parts by its neighbors
Ukraine will create a military and economic alliance
with Poland, Lithuania and other countries of the Baltic-
Black Sea region
Ukraine will be either completely or partially absorbed
by Russia
Other
Hard to tell
Socio-political survey, 2nd wave
Future and the assessment of high-profile
events
26. In your opinion, what Ukraine will be like in 15 years?
Reference group: all
respondents, n=2000
Positive
changes
Negative
changes
43,4
%
35,4
%
11. 26. In your opinion, what Ukraine will be like in 15 years?
BREAKDOWN BY AGE, %
32.6%
10.9%
2.9%
18.9%
5.7%
10.9%
4.6%
13.7%
22.4%
14.6%
6.8%
17.1%
9.0%
9.6%
3.1%
17.4%
18.9%
16.0%
5.4%
21.1%
8.6%
11.1%
2.2%
16.7%
19.1%
12.6%
7.6%
16.6%
8.9%
11.3%
3.3%
20.5%
Ukraine will be a part of the European
Union and will reach the level of
development of countries of the…
Ukraine will remain just as corrupt and
weak as today
Ukraine will be a strong non-aligned
country with a strong economics, army
and navy
Ukraine will be torn into parts by its
neighbors
Ukraine will create a military and
economic alliance with Poland,
Lithuania and other countries of the…
Ukraine will be either completely or
partially absorbed by Russia
Other
Hard to tell
18-24 25-34 35-49 50+
Socio-political survey, 2nd wave
Future and the assessment of high-profile
events
Reference group: all
respondents, n=2000
12. 6.6%
8.7%
7.7%
25.5%
7.7%
10.2%
4.1%
29.6%
26.7%
13.5%
3.9%
18.0%
10.5%
12.6%
3.4%
11.4%
25.1%
12.1%
5.0%
22.7%
10.0%
6.2%
2.4%
16.5%
19.2%
12.9%
11.3%
13.2%
6.3%
16.8%
0.3%
20.1%
20.5%
20.8%
4.5%
13.6%
6.8%
6.4%
6.8%
20.5%
Ukraine will be a part of the European Union and
will reach the level of development of countries of
the Central Europe
Ukraine will remain just as corrupt and weak as
today
Ukraine will be a strong non-aligned country with a
strong economics, army and navy
Ukraine will be torn into parts by its neighbors
Ukraine will create a military and economic alliance
with Poland, Lithuania and other countries of the
Baltic-Black Sea region
Ukraine will be either completely or partially
absorbed by Russia
Other (please specify)
Hard to tell
Region
East West North Center South
Socio-political survey, 2nd wave
Future and the assessment of high-profile
events
26. In your opinion, what Ukraine will be like in 15 years?
BREAKDOWN BY REGION, %
Reference group: all
respondents, n=2000
13. 27. What (or who) is the biggest threat to the future of Ukraine?
71.0%
49.6%
48.4%
30.2%
23.1%
9.1%
5.6%
4.1%
4.1%
1.5%
1.6%
2.4%
Corruption
Politicians
Oligarchs
Russia
Ukrainians themselves
Environmental problems
Collapse of the infrastructure
Technological innovations which
make us uncompetitive
Expansion of the West
Islamic extremists
Other
Hard to tell
Socio-political survey, 2nd wave
Future and the assessment of high-profile
events
Reference group: all
respondents, n=2000
14. 27. What (or who) is the biggest threat to the future of Ukraine?
BREAKDOWN BY REGION, %
59.7%
32.7%
40.8%
20.4%
31.6%
0.5%
10.2%
6.1%
6.6%
8.2%
1.5%
6.6%
74.0%
47.7%
49.3%
41.1%
24.2%
2.5%
2.3%
2.5%
3.0%
10.3%
0.7%
0.2%
77.3%
43.4%
49.0%
38.3%
19.8%
1.2%
8.8%
4.1%
2.7%
12.1%
0.9%
1.8%
68.1%
61.3%
52.5%
22.0%
26.6%
1.6%
4.9%
5.2%
5.2%
6.6%
0.5%
2.5%
70.1%
50.0%
53.4%
20.5%
14.4%
0.8%
4.2%
3.8%
4.2%
7.2%
5.7%
3.4%
Corruption
Politicians
Oligarchs
Russia
Ukrainians themselves
Islamic extremists
Collapse of the infrastructure
Technological innovations which make us
uncompetitive
Expansion of the West
Environmental problems
Other
Hard to tell
Region
East West North Center South
Socio-political survey, 2nd wave
Future and the assessment of high-profile
events
Reference group: all
respondents, n=2000