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WEEK 3

INVESTMENT DECISIONS
Module: BLB20059-M
MANAGING RISK
OUTLINE

• Capital investments: Importance and difficulties
• Types of capital investments
• Phases of capital budgeting
• Levels of decision making
• Facets of project analysis
• Feasibility study: A schematic diagram
• Objectives of capital budgeting
• Common weaknesses in capital budgeting

Project Management by Prasana Chandra © Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore
CAPITAL INVESTMENTS : IMPORTANCE AND
DIFFICULTIES
Importance
• Long – term effects
• Irreversibility
• Substantial outlays

Difficulties
• Measurement problems
• Uncertainty
• Temporal spread
Project Management by Prasana Chandra © Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore
TYPES OF INVESTMENTS
•Mandatory Investments
•Replacement investments
•Expansion investments
•Diversification investments
•R & D investments
•Miscellaneous investments

Project Management by Prasana Chandra © Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore
CAPITAL BUDGETING PROCESS
Planning
Analysis
Selection
Financing
Implementation
Review
Project Management by Prasana Chandra © Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore
LEVELS OF DECISION MAKING
Operating

Administrative

decisions

decisions

Lower level

Middle level

management

management

management

• How structured is the decision

Routine

Semi – structured

Unstructured

• What is the level of resource

Minor resource

Moderate resource

Major resource

commitment

commitment

commitment

commitment

What is the time horizon

Short – term

Medium – term

Long – term

• Where is the decision taken

•

Strategic
decisions
Top level

Project Management by Prasana Chandra © Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore
KEY ISSUES IN PROJECT ANALYSIS
Potential Market

Market Analysis
Market Share
Technical Viability

Technical Analysis
Sensible Choices
Risk

Financial Analysis
Economic Analysis

Return
Benefits and Costs in Shadow
Prices
Other Impacts
Environmental Damage

Ecological Analysis
© Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore

Restoration Measures
FEASIBILITY STUDY : A SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM
Generation of Ideas

P
r
e

Initial Screening

l
i
m

Is the Idea Prima Facie Promising

i

No

Yes

n
a

Plan Feasibility Analysis

r

Terminate

y
W
o

Conduct Market Analysis

Conduct Technical Analysis

r
k

A
n
a
l
y
s
i
s

E

Conduct Financial
Analysis

v
a

Conduct Economic and Ecological Analysis

l
u
a

Is the Project Worthwhile ?
Yes

t
i
o

Prepare Funding Proposal

n

© Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore

No
Terminate
OBJECTIVE OF CAPITAL BUDGETING

Finance theory rests on the premise that managers should manage their firm’s
resources with the objective of enhancing the firm’s market value. This goal
has been eloquently defended by distinguished finance scholars, economists,
and practitioners. Wit the following :
“The quest for value drives scarce resources to their most productive uses and their
most efficient users. The more effectively resources are deployed, the more robust will
be economic growth and the rate of improvement in our standard of living.”

© Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore
BASIC CONSIDERATIONS: RISK AND RETURN

Investment
decisions

Return
Market value
of the firm

Financing
decisions

Risk

© Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore
COMMON WEAKNESSES IN CAPITAL BUDGETING
•Poor alignment between strategy and capital budgeting
• Deficiencies in analytical techniques
• Poor identification of base case
• Inadequate treatment of risk
• Improper evaluation of options
• Lack of uniformity in assumptions
• Neglect of side effects
• No linkage between compensation and financial measures
• Reverse financial engineering
• Weak integration between capital budgeting and expense budgeting
• Inadequate post - audits
© Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore
Summing Up
• Essentially a capital project represents a scheme for investing resources that can
be analysed and appraised reasonably independently
• The basic characteristic of a capital project is that it typically involves a
current outlay (or current and future outlays ) of funds in the expectation of a
stream of benefits extending far into the future
• Capital expenditure decisions often represent the most important decisions
taken by a firm. Their importance stems from three inter-related reasons:
long-term effects, irreversibility, and substantial outlays
• While capital expenditure decisions are extremely important, they pose
difficulties which stem from three principal sources: measurement
problems, uncertainty, and temporal spread
• Capital budgeting is a complex process which may be divided into six
broad phases: planning, analysis, selection, financing, implementation and
©
reviewCentre for Financial Management, Bangalore
• One can look at capital budgeting decisions at three levels: operating,
administrative, and strategic
• The important facets of project analysis are : market analysis, technical analysis,
financial analysis, economic analysis, and ecological analysis
• Financial theory, in general, rests on the premise that the goal of financial
management should be to maximise the present wealth of the firm’s equity
shareholders. Business firms may pursue other goals. When these other goals
conflict with the goal of maximising the wealth of equity shareholders, the trade –
off has to be understood
• The common weaknesses found in capital budgeting systems in practice are:
poor alignment between strategy and capital budgeting ; deficiencies in analytical
techniques; no linkage between compensation and financial measures; reverse
financial engineering; weak integration between capital budgeting and expense
budgeting ; inadequate post-audits.

© Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore

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02 investment decision

  • 1. WEEK 3 INVESTMENT DECISIONS Module: BLB20059-M MANAGING RISK
  • 2. OUTLINE • Capital investments: Importance and difficulties • Types of capital investments • Phases of capital budgeting • Levels of decision making • Facets of project analysis • Feasibility study: A schematic diagram • Objectives of capital budgeting • Common weaknesses in capital budgeting Project Management by Prasana Chandra © Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore
  • 3. CAPITAL INVESTMENTS : IMPORTANCE AND DIFFICULTIES Importance • Long – term effects • Irreversibility • Substantial outlays Difficulties • Measurement problems • Uncertainty • Temporal spread Project Management by Prasana Chandra © Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore
  • 4. TYPES OF INVESTMENTS •Mandatory Investments •Replacement investments •Expansion investments •Diversification investments •R & D investments •Miscellaneous investments Project Management by Prasana Chandra © Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore
  • 5. CAPITAL BUDGETING PROCESS Planning Analysis Selection Financing Implementation Review Project Management by Prasana Chandra © Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore
  • 6. LEVELS OF DECISION MAKING Operating Administrative decisions decisions Lower level Middle level management management management • How structured is the decision Routine Semi – structured Unstructured • What is the level of resource Minor resource Moderate resource Major resource commitment commitment commitment commitment What is the time horizon Short – term Medium – term Long – term • Where is the decision taken • Strategic decisions Top level Project Management by Prasana Chandra © Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore
  • 7. KEY ISSUES IN PROJECT ANALYSIS Potential Market Market Analysis Market Share Technical Viability Technical Analysis Sensible Choices Risk Financial Analysis Economic Analysis Return Benefits and Costs in Shadow Prices Other Impacts Environmental Damage Ecological Analysis © Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore Restoration Measures
  • 8. FEASIBILITY STUDY : A SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM Generation of Ideas P r e Initial Screening l i m Is the Idea Prima Facie Promising i No Yes n a Plan Feasibility Analysis r Terminate y W o Conduct Market Analysis Conduct Technical Analysis r k A n a l y s i s E Conduct Financial Analysis v a Conduct Economic and Ecological Analysis l u a Is the Project Worthwhile ? Yes t i o Prepare Funding Proposal n © Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore No Terminate
  • 9. OBJECTIVE OF CAPITAL BUDGETING Finance theory rests on the premise that managers should manage their firm’s resources with the objective of enhancing the firm’s market value. This goal has been eloquently defended by distinguished finance scholars, economists, and practitioners. Wit the following : “The quest for value drives scarce resources to their most productive uses and their most efficient users. The more effectively resources are deployed, the more robust will be economic growth and the rate of improvement in our standard of living.” © Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore
  • 10. BASIC CONSIDERATIONS: RISK AND RETURN Investment decisions Return Market value of the firm Financing decisions Risk © Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore
  • 11. COMMON WEAKNESSES IN CAPITAL BUDGETING •Poor alignment between strategy and capital budgeting • Deficiencies in analytical techniques • Poor identification of base case • Inadequate treatment of risk • Improper evaluation of options • Lack of uniformity in assumptions • Neglect of side effects • No linkage between compensation and financial measures • Reverse financial engineering • Weak integration between capital budgeting and expense budgeting • Inadequate post - audits © Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore
  • 12. Summing Up • Essentially a capital project represents a scheme for investing resources that can be analysed and appraised reasonably independently • The basic characteristic of a capital project is that it typically involves a current outlay (or current and future outlays ) of funds in the expectation of a stream of benefits extending far into the future • Capital expenditure decisions often represent the most important decisions taken by a firm. Their importance stems from three inter-related reasons: long-term effects, irreversibility, and substantial outlays • While capital expenditure decisions are extremely important, they pose difficulties which stem from three principal sources: measurement problems, uncertainty, and temporal spread • Capital budgeting is a complex process which may be divided into six broad phases: planning, analysis, selection, financing, implementation and © reviewCentre for Financial Management, Bangalore
  • 13. • One can look at capital budgeting decisions at three levels: operating, administrative, and strategic • The important facets of project analysis are : market analysis, technical analysis, financial analysis, economic analysis, and ecological analysis • Financial theory, in general, rests on the premise that the goal of financial management should be to maximise the present wealth of the firm’s equity shareholders. Business firms may pursue other goals. When these other goals conflict with the goal of maximising the wealth of equity shareholders, the trade – off has to be understood • The common weaknesses found in capital budgeting systems in practice are: poor alignment between strategy and capital budgeting ; deficiencies in analytical techniques; no linkage between compensation and financial measures; reverse financial engineering; weak integration between capital budgeting and expense budgeting ; inadequate post-audits. © Centre for Financial Management, Bangalore