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I’ll Have What She’s Having
@herdmeister
June 2013
22
HEY HO LET’S GO!
Text
Spock < Kirk
“the most important influence on individual
behaviour is the behaviour of others”*
Source: UK Government Behavioural Insights Team Mid Term Review
I spy Homo Mimicus?
Social
Creatures
Social
Brains
7
Just how important is the
space between?
Just how important is the
space between?
7
...
88
LET’S PLAY!
Independent
choice
Copying
The Church of
Touchdown Jesus,
Monroe, Ohio
Signature patterns in data
Diffusion through a population
by individuals discovering the
superior qualities of the product
independently of their peers
Diffusion through a population
by individuals mostly learning from
each other either about the quality
of the product or its social value
Space betweenSpace within
...
1111
Market-level patterns
also help
Space within Space between
short-tail
distribution
long-tail
distribution
Few have a
very low share Many items in tail
with small share
14
Copying
Experts
Copying
PeersGuesswork
Considered
choice
A simple map
(rooted in data
patterns)
Few choices
Many choices 14
...
Adapted from Bentley Earls O’Brien
“I’ll have what she’s having”
MIT Press 2011
Space betweenSpace within
15
rapid turnover of popularity
short-tail distribution
Space within
long-tail plot
Adapted from Bentley Earls O’Brien
“I’ll have what she’s having” MIT Press 2011
Few choices
short-tail plot
Many choices
Space
between
slow turnover
of popularity
rapid turnover
of popularity
15
Using patterns to
build a map
16
Few choices
Many choices
CopyingIndependent
31 1
Yes*
Maybe
No
No
Sampling: social really is
different
how are we connected?a.
what happens in the
space between us?
b.
The social research agenda
how do things spread?c.
=
the
space
between
2121
“Oh, to be at
the beginning again
knowing almost nothing”
Tom Stoppard, Arcadia
2231

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I’ll Have What She’s Having by Mark Earls of Herd - Presented at the Insight Innovation eXchange North America 2013

Editor's Notes

  1. Good morning - delighted to be here Share with you a way of mapping human behaviour that seems to work well for lots of different behaviour change tasks: commercial-marketing, NGO/Charity and public policy. Not a panacea but we ’ ve found it really helps make the most of behaviour change
  2. Very useful for plotting different markets on: here ’ s some done recently... Thinking about each of these categories, where do you think they plot on this spectrum?
  3. News story and then social diffusion If you want to spread your thing, your idea, your brand, you need to worry less about the LH and more about the RH
  4. We ’ re not really interested in “ physics ” descriptions - precise, detailed (not least because the detail is elusive and slippery) Instead characterising behaviours in terms of social influence (Lo -Hi) And Directedness (lo-hi)
  5. The plain answer is no. Unless you know that the behaviour you ’ re studying really is independent and considered. Most of the rest of the map needs something other than individual-based methods.
  6. A good example of this is sampling: if the behaviour really is individual and independent, aggregating the results of individual interviews (qual or quant) to produce a population will be fine. But if it ’ s the result of social influence - IHWSH - then it will not be. Social really is different - that ’ s why we see those kind of patterns I showed a few mins ago. And the important piece is precisely what trad MR misses
  7. Some suggestions we probably know about...