2. About Me and This Presentation
I'm a product guy, but I can do engineering too.
Earlier this year, I launched a group messaging
service for mobile phones. That experience
gave me a lot of insight about mobile.
This presentation is a summary of my current
feelings on mobile and where it's headed.
3. Key Points
● Traditional Voice/SMS will be obsolete
● Cellular providers will become mobile
internet providers
● Mobile and Desktop/Tablet will be deeply
integrated
● Phone Numbers will be obsolete
● There will be a monopoly
Note: These changes will take years
4. Common Mistake
Bringing "social" to
mobile is not the goal.
Smartphones already
have social integration
through Facebook's
applications.
5. The Real Goal
The real goal is to create more efficient and
more convenient communication channels.
Traditional Voice and SMS suck, they are what
need to be improved.
Better communication channels WILL attract
users! The proof is in the startups...
6. Startup Highlight 1: GroupMe
GroupMe created technology to add group
messaging to SMS.
Before being sold to Skype, GroupMe was
sending over 100 million group messages per
month to millions of users in 90 countries.
GroupMe created a more efficient and more
convenient communication channel.
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-groupme?op=1
7. Startup Highlight 2: WhatsApp
WhatsApp is an alternative messaging app that
uses the internet instead of the cell network.
Messages are instantaneous and lack the
arbritrary 160 character restriction.
Despite it's initial download fee, WhatsApp
users send over 1 billion messages per day.
WhatsApp created a more efficient and
more convenient communication channel.
8. Startup Highlight 3: Voxer
Voxer is an alternative Voice/Text/Picture
messaging application. Every media form is
displayed inline, and can be viewed or played
back at any time.
At the time of writing, Voxer is going viral
WhatsApp created a more efficient and
more convenient communication channel.
9. To Reiterate...
Consumers want better ways to communicate.
3G and 4G data connections have created an
opportunity to improve communication.
New technologies like GroupMe, WhatsApp,
and Voxer will continue to be developed
until traditional Voice/SMS is obsolete.
10. Alright, so what's next?
There is a clear trend towards improved
communication, but who will ultimately win?
Can there be more than one winner?
11. Communication will be a monopoly
The goal is to create the most efficient and
most convenient communication channels
possible.
To truly be the most convenient, there must be
only one offering. Using multiple applications is
annoying.
So yes, I suspect there will only be one winner.
12. Who Will Win?
What company is in a position to create the
MOST efficient and MOST convenient
communication channels?
1. Facebook
2. Google
3. Apple
4. Startups
5. Wireless Carriers
13. About the winner...
The winner will create their own phone, there is
no way around it.
Applications simply do not provide enough
capabilities to be the most efficient and most
convenient.
14. 1. Facebook - Advantages
Facebook controls social. They have my
connections and anyone else I'd want to
contact in their database somewhere.
Agile company, wouldn't need to significantly
restructure to make this happen.
Very established userbase and tons of
dedicated developers.
15. 1. Facebook - Advantages Cont.
By having users port their number to Facebook,
communication could be possible through
Facebook.com as well as a Facebook Phone.
People already use Facebook.com constantly,
so this wouldn't require a significant behavioral
switch from consumers.
16. 1. Facebook - Disadvantages
Business relationships often do not exist on
Facebook. This needs to change, or business
people will never buy a Facebook phone.
Facebook operates on rapid iteration, Android
makes rapid iteration very difficult. They would
need to find a way around this.
17. 2. Google - Advantages
Google has a very established userbase.
Having a "Facebook Phone" might be weird,
but a "Google Phone" would not.
Through Android and Google Voice, they
already have corporate partnerships and
experience to make this happen.
18. 2. Google - Disadvantages
Google does not have a great history of
launching disruptive products for consumers.
Google+ may not be a large enough social
graph to rely on.
19. 3. Apple - Advantages
Indisputably has created the best phone, and
can leverage that position to move into a social
product.
iMessage is a start
Control a lot of desktop/tablets for cross
platform functionality
20. 3. Apple - Disadvantages
No social graph to rely on.
21. About the Social Graph
Mobile should be deeply integrated with social.
Facebook restricts mobile phone numbers from
developers because of public outcry. Ironically,
this prevents other companies from making a
mobile phone with great social integration.
22. Social Repercussions
By using a phone that relies on the social
graph, phone numbers become obsolete.
Instead, adding someone on Facebook,
Google+, or another service will be enough to
contact them on their mobile device. Woah.
