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Values Ai: Find the Right Voters
- 1. Values Ai:Target the RightVoter Estimating values fromTwitter Data and predicting candidate support Sharareh Noorbaloochi
- 2. Motivation • Values (e.g. fairness, tradition) serve as guiding principles in people's lives.
- 3. Motivation • Values (e.g. fairness, tradition) serve as guiding principles in people's lives. • Can be used for targeted campaigning and advertising
- 4. Motivation • Values (e.g. fairness, tradition) serve as guiding principles in people's lives. • Can be used for targeted campaigning and advertising • ValuesAi estimates user’s value system based on their twitter timeline and uses it to predict who they vote for in the 2016 presidential primaries
- 5. Values Ai at a Glance Self-Direction Universalism Benevolence Conformity Tradition Security Power Stimulation Hedonism Achievement Basic HumanValues (Schwartz values) Openness to Change Self- Transcendence Self- Enhancement Conservation
- 7. Data #FeelTheBern #MakeAmerica GreatAgain #ImWithHer #CruzCrew Collect tweets using the above hashtags Identify unique users (~1300 users/ candidate) Collect 200 last tweets for each user Twitter Rest API Twitter Rest API
- 8. RT @JohnFetterman: I'm proud to have @BernieSanders's back. Add your name if you are, too: https://t.co/E4vTLTp3yP #FeelTheBern https://t.c...In 2015, a college degree is equivalent to what a high school degree was 50 years ago. Public colleges should be tuition free… User’sTweets Pre-process: - Tokenize - remove “RT”,“via”,“rt” - remove mentions and links - remove stopwords
- 9. of values Tradition: blessed, Christmas, … Universalism: diplomacy, equality, … RT @JohnFetterman: I'm proud to have @BernieSanders's back. Add your name if you are, too: https://t.co/E4vTLTp3yP #FeelTheBern https://t.c...In 2015, a college degree is equivalent to what a high school degree was 50 years ago. Public colleges should be tuition free… User’sTweets Pre-process: - Tokenize - remove “RT”,“via”,“rt” - remove mentions and links - remove stopwords
- 10. of values Tradition: blessed, Christmas, … Universalism: diplomacy, equality, … RT @JohnFetterman: I'm proud to have @BernieSanders's back. Add your name if you are, too: https://t.co/E4vTLTp3yP #FeelTheBern https://t.c...In 2015, a college degree is equivalent to what a high school degree was 50 years ago. Public colleges should be tuition free… User’sTweets Pre-process: - Tokenize - remove “RT”,“via”,“rt” - remove mentions and links - remove stopwords # value-related words in user’s tweets —————————- Total # words in user tweets Value Freq Self-Direction 2.89 Stimulation 0.89 Hedonism 0.24 Achievement 0.85 Power 1.39 Security 2.37 Tradition 0.13 Conformity 0.51 Benevolence 1.19 Universalism 1.70 Features
- 11. of values Tradition: blessed, Christmas, … Universalism: diplomacy, equality, … RT @JohnFetterman: I'm proud to have @BernieSanders's back. Add your name if you are, too: https://t.co/E4vTLTp3yP #FeelTheBern https://t.c...In 2015, a college degree is equivalent to what a high school degree was 50 years ago. Public colleges should be tuition free… User’sTweets Pre-process: - Tokenize - remove “RT”,“via”,“rt” - remove mentions and links - remove stopwords # value-related words in user’s tweets —————————- Total # words in user tweets Value Freq Self-Direction 2.89 Stimulation 0.89 Hedonism 0.24 Achievement 0.85 Power 1.39 Security 2.37 Tradition 0.13 Conformity 0.51 Benevolence 1.19 Universalism 1.70 Features Predict support for a candidate: • Multinomial logistic regression
- 12. !1.5% !1% !0.5% 0% 0.5% 1% 1.5% Self-Direction Stimulation Hedonism Achievement Power Security Tradition Conformity Benevolence Universalism BernieSanders DonaldTrump HillaryClinton TedCruz Feature coefficients: Multinomial Logistic Regression Openness to Change Self- Transcendence Self-EnhancementConservation 10 fold Gridsearch: L2 Regularized, C = 10
- 13. Validation Training: 80% - Test: 20% Test Accuracy = 50% (Better than chance performance at 25%) TrueLabel Predicted Label 53% 53% 43% 49% 32% 28% 25% 24% 14%12% 15%14% 8%7% 10%13%
- 14. Sharareh Noorbaloochi B.S., M.S. Electrical Engineering Pattern Recognition PhD, Electrical Engineering Cognitive Neuroscience Postdoc, Psychology Moral and Political Psychology High school in Iran
- 16. Validation Training accuracy: 75% Test accuracy: 76% Predicting political party 80% 20% 29% 71% D R D R TrueLabel Predicted Label Training: 80% - Test: 20%
- 17. Prediction of candidates within party Training accuracy: 59% Test accuracy: 61% Predicting Bernie vs. Hillary PredictingTrump vs. Cruz Training accuracy: 62% Test accuracy: 64% 67% 33% 46% 54% 66% 34% 39% 61% TrueLabel Predicted Label TrueLabel Predicted Label