3. About the future we can be
certain of only 3 things:
1.It cannot be known with certainity!
2.It will be different from what it is now!
3. It will be different from what we expect
it to be!
BY: PETER DRUCKER
4. TWIN TASKS INVOLVED
MEASURING FORECASTING
MARKET COMPANY
DEMAND SALES
MEASURING FORECASTING
CURRENT FUTURE
MARKET MARKET
DEMAND DEMAND
MEASURING MEASURING
CURRENT CURRENT
TOTAL AREA
DEMAND DEMAND
8. OTHER BENEFITS OF DOING
MARKETING RESEARCH…………..
* TO FIND OUT CREDIBILITY OF THE
PRODUCT IN THE MARKET
* SALES PATTERN OF THE PRODUCT
* BUYER’S ACCEPTANCE LEVEL
* FORECAST FUTURE SALES
10. TYPES OF
MARKETS
POTENTIAL TARGET
MARKET MARKET
QUALIFIED
AVAILALLE
MARKET
AVAILABLE PENETRATED
MARKET MARKET
11. TERMS USED IN SALES
FORCASTING
1. MARKET POTENTIAL {INDUSTRY
PO:}
2. COMPANY POTENTIAL {SALES PO:}
3. MARKET DEMAND {INDUSTRY DE:}
4. COMPANY DEMAND
{COMPANY SALES POSSIBILITIES}
5. MARKET FORECAST {INDUSTRY FR:}
6. COMPANY FORECAST {SALES FR:}
12. MARKET POTENTIAL
“Total possible sales by all firms selling the same
product in the given market , assuming that ideal
marketing effort is made.”
COMPANY POTENTIAL
“Refers to a part of market potential; the maximum sales that
an individual firm can achieve on a given market, again
under ideal conditions and on the assumption that ideal
marketing effort is being made.”
13. MARKET DEMAND
“ Refers to that portion of market potential that
is achievable under existing conditions.”
COMPANY DEMAND
“Refers to that portion of company potential
that is achievable under existing conditions.”
14. MARKET FORECAST
“It is narrower in scope than market demand.
Refers to that part of market demand that will
materialise with the level of marketing effort
the industry will put in during the period of
forecast.”
COMPANY FORECAST
“Refers to that portion of company demand,
which the company actually expects with the
chosen marketing effort.”
15. PERIOD RANGE OF
DEMAND/
SALES FORECASTS:
LONG RANGE SHORT RANGE
FORECAST FORECAST
It facilitates investment
It is used for projecting cash flow
decisions at a time of starting a
of the enterprise and for
new industrialised unit or while
planning various marketing
attempting expansion or
activities like advertising ,
diversification.
warehousing etc.
16. Role played by sales
forecasting:
Guarantees effective control.
Sound decisions on expansion or contraction.
Judicious resources allocation.
Helps in making sound personnel decisions.
Aids in performance evaluation.
It is the foundation for budgeting.
18. STEPS IN SALES FORECASTING:
2. Divide the 3. Determine
1.Determine the
company products factors affecting
purposes for which
into homogeneous sales of each
forecasts are used
groups product
4. Choose the
6. Analyse 5. Gather the forecasting
the data available data methods
7. Check and 8. Make assumptions
recheck the regarding other
deductions factors
9. Convert deductions
10. Apply the forecasts and assumptions into
to company operations forecasts
19. Survey of
expert’s
Jury opinion User expectation
method/executive method/end use
opinion method method
Market survey Sales force
method composite
method
METHODS USED
Analytical and IN SALES
Market share
statistical FORECASTING
method
methods
The delphi
Test marketing method
method
Substitution/
replacement
method
20. JURY METHOD/ EXECUTIVE
OPINION METHOD
TOTALLY BASED ON JUDGEMENT.
TWO ASPECTS
TOP JURY PERCOLATED
METHOD JURY METHOD
21. Judgement based method.
Opinion of experts in the
concerned field , inside or
outside the organisation , are
approached .
More useful for developing total
industry forecast rather than
company sales forecast.
22. The Delphi method
It is also a kind of survey of expert’s
opinion but in this method experts are
interrogated by a sequence of
questionnaires.
Used for working out broad- based ,
futuristic estimates, rather than sales
forecast.
23. Sales force composite
method
JUDGEMENT BASED METHOD
Salesman develops the forecast for his
respective territory.
Territory wise forecasts are then
consolidated at branch/area/region
level.
Finally aggregate of all these forecasts
are taken as final forecast.
24. USER EXPECTATION METHOD
Also called end-use method/
survey of buyers’ intentions.
Users of the product under
forecasting are listed.
Their individual likely demand
is ascertained.
From the above collected
data, demand forecast for the
product is consolidated.
25. MARKET SHARE METHOD
Key factor is ‘planned market share of the firm.’
First of all firm works out the ‘INDUSTRY
FORECAST’ and then applies ‘market share factor’
and arrives at the ‘COMPANY FORECAST’.
Market share factor is developed on the basis of
past trends, company’s present competitive
position, it’s plans for the future, brand
preference etc.
26. Normally used to estimate demand of
new-products.
Demand for existing product is
forecasted.
Based on that, an idea of the demand for
the new product is gained.
27. TEST MARKETING
METHOD:
USED FOR THE LAUNCH OF NEW
PRODUCT.
IN THIS METHOD, new product is
launched and marketed in a few
selected ‘TEST’ cities/ towns/
territories.
Finally these ‘TEST-MARKETS’ are
considered as ‘FINAL - MARKET’.
31. COMBINATION OF
METHODS:
1. It would give better insight into the
situation.
2.Enables cross – checking.
3.Minimize risks involved in the forecasts.
4.Will help the forecaster to probe deeply
the reasons for the variations between
the forecasts arrived at by different
methods.
32.
33. Acc to MR MICHEAL PORTER:
‘”competitive advantage is a
function of either providing
comparable buyer value
more efficiently than
competitors(LOW COST) and
performing activities at
comparable but in unique
ways that create more
buyer value than
competitors and hence ,
command a premium price
(DIFFERENTIATION) ”
34. FIVE FORCES THAT SHAPE
COMPETITION IN AN
INDUSTRY
THREAT OF
NEW ENTRANTS
BARGANING RIVALRY AMONG BARGAINING
POWER OF POWER OF
EXISTING
SUPPLIERS BUYERS
COMPETITORS
THREAT OF SUBSTITUTE
PRODUCTS
35. TYPES OF
COMPETITION
1. BRAND COMPETITION
2. PRODUCT TYPE COMPETITION
3. NEED BASED PRIORITY
COMPETITION
4. SUBSTITUTION COMPETITION
37. SIGNIFICANCE OF
COMPETITIVE
ADVANTAGE
IT IS THE ANTIDOTE FOR IT SUPPORTS ENVIRONMENT
COMPETITORS SUPERIORITY ANALYSIS
IT IS THE HEART OF IT MAKES PROFIT A
MARKETING STRATEGY SECONDARY PRODUCT
IT MAKES THE UNIT TO IT IS THE ROUTE TO THE LONG
REMAIN COMPETITIVE TERM MARKETING SUCCESS
EVERGREEN
