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SaaStr Workshop Wednesdays: State of SaaS with Altimeter Capital

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SaaStr Workshop Wednesdays: State of SaaS with Altimeter Capital Speaker: Jamin Ball Partner @ Altimeter Capital

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SaaStr Workshop Wednesdays: State of SaaS with Altimeter Capital
Disclaimer
Confidentiality/Authorized Recipients This presentation and all concepts, opinions, assumptions, conclusions, projections, and other information included in this presentation (collectively, this “Presentation”)
are confidential, proprietary, and owned by Altimeter Capital Management, LP (“Altimeter”). You will maintain this Presentation in the strictest confidence and will not, in any circumstances, through any
mechanism, or in whole or in part, reproduce, distribute, or disclose this Presentation to any other person without the express written consent of Altimeter’s General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer, or Chief
Financial Officer. Unauthorized distribution, disclosure, reproduction, use, possession, access, viewing, or use of this Presentation is strictly prohibited. These restrictions do not apply to disclosures required by
applicable law or that are protected against contractual disclosure limitations by applicable law, as reasonably advised by a validly licensed lawyer, and only to the extent so required or protected. You are
authorized to view or otherwise access, receive, or possess this Presentation only if such viewing, access, receipt, or possession is provided directly by Altimeter, and then only for your exclusive and
confidential information.
Non-Solicitation Nothing in this Presentation constitutes an offer to sell, or a solicitation of interest to purchase, or an inducement to renew or maintain, interest in any future or existing Altimeter-managed fund
(collectively, the “Funds”) or any advisory services. These materials do not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all the information that you may desire in investigating the Funds. These materials are merely for
preliminary discussion only and may not be relied upon for making any investment, business, or contractual decisions with respect to the Funds. Any such offers, solicitations, or inducements can be made only
pursuant to the applicable Fund’s offering documents, investment agreements, disclosures, and procedures, and can be made only to qualified purchasers as determined by Altimeter after required due
diligence. The information contained in this document (together with any additional materials provide in connection herewith) is superseded by, and is qualified in its entirety by, such offering materials. Your
viewing or other access to this Presentation does not constitute any part of those necessary documents, agreements, disclosures, procedures, or required due diligence, and does not constitute any Altimeter
determination that you are a qualified purchaser. Neither the SEC nor any other governmental or regulatory agency has reviewed, approved, or endorsed anything contained in this Presentation.
Investment Risks Any investment in the Funds involves significant risks due to, among other things, the nature of such investments, and can result in partial, significant, or total loss of invested capital. In making
any such decision, you must rely only on the applicable governing documents and agreements, as well as your own independent investigation. Investors must read and understand all the risks described in a
Fund’s final confidential private placement memorandum and/or the related subscription documents before making a commitment. The recipient also must consult its own legal, accounting and tax advisors as to
the legal, business, tax and related matters concerning the information contained in this document to make an independent determination and consequences of a potential investment in a Fund, including US
federal, state, local and non-US tax consequences.
Forward-Looking Statements This Presentation contains express and implied “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended (including
outlooks, forecasts, expectations, assumptions, projections, targets, and predictions) that are current only as of the date of this Presentation. You understand that (a) all forward-looking statements are inherently
subject to existing and future material known, unknown, and unknowable risks, uncertainties, and assumptions and might therefore be or become materially or totally inaccurate; (b) neither Altimeter nor any
other person can assure you that such forward-looking statements are correct or will prove to have been correct or will remain correct; (c) actual results can materially differ; (d) forward-looking statements are
not, and cannot be considered to be, guarantees, predictions, or indications of actual events that will occur; (e) Altimeter is constantly scrutinizing, re-evaluating, and revising its own opinions and assumptions
about its own forward-looking statements, so they always remain subject to material changes or reversals at any time in Altimeter’s sole and absolute discretion without notice; and (f) Altimeter has no obligation
to update, revise, supplement, or otherwise notify you about changes or reversals in Altimeter’s views about such forward-looking statements or ultimate results. You will not rely on any such forward-looking
statements for any investment, financial, business, or operational decision or for any other purpose.
No Investment Recommendations Nothing in this Presentation is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, commodity, or other asset/product/service. Altimeter’s express or implied opinions,
assumptions, projections, and other forward-looking statements about the current or future value or about the current or future price of any securities are valid only as of the date of this Presentation, and are
inherently based on known, unknown, and unknowable risks, uncertainties, and assumptions – any or all of which could be materially or totally inaccurate. Altimeter constantly scrutinizes, re-evaluates, and
revises its own opinions, assumptions, projections, and other forward-looking views about all securities, so any such opinions, assumptions, projections, and other forward-looking views contained in this
Presentation are always subject to material changes in Altimeter’s sole and absolute discretion without any notice. Altimeter assumes no obligation to update or otherwise notify you when Altimeter’s opinions,
assumptions, and projections change or reverse. Accordingly, you will not base any investment, financial, business, or operational decisions on any opinions, assumptions, projections, forward-looking views, or
other information contained in this Presentation, including any decision to buy, sell, or hold any company security, any Fund interest, or any commodity, or any decision to initiate, maintain, or increase your
interest in any Fund. All securities and commodities investments, including your Fund investment, are inherently risky and can result in partial, substantial, or total loss of invested capital.
Disclaimer
No Updates and No Warranties Unless otherwise specifically indicated in a particular instance, everything in this Presentation speaks only as of the date of this Presentation. This Presentation is necessarily
incomplete and necessarily reflects only a small, non-exclusive, and out-of-context sample of Altimeter’s opinions, assumptions, projections, processes, valuation metrics, considerations, and available
information (including information provided by third-parties). While Altimeter currently believes that this Presentation is accurate in isolation, Altimeter makes no express or implied warranty as to this
Presentation’s current or future accuracy, relevance, or completeness, and Altimeter cannot accept responsibility for any errors or omissions appearing in this Presentation. This Presentation’s subject matter
(including each forward-looking statement) is constantly evolving, and is constantly under scrutiny, re-evaluation, and revision by Altimeter, and always remains subject to change, modification, termination,
supplementation, or reversal at any time in Altimeter’s sole and absolute discretion or without Altimeter’s knowledge. Altimeter has no obligation to update, supplement, or revise this Presentation, or to
otherwise notify you, if or when (a) any information in this Presentation (including each forward-looking statement) changes or reverses or if any information (including any forward-looking statement) proves to be
inaccurate; (b) new, changed, or different events, circumstances, developments, or other factors materially change or reverse the conclusions, opinions, assumptions, forward-looking statements, or other
information contained in this Presentation; or (c) Altimeter modifies, revokes, terminates, supplements, reverses, or otherwise changes any Altimeter opinions, conclusions, assumptions, projections, personnel,
or investment strategies, restrictions, parameters, procedures, or policies, or any other information
External Sources Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources. Although Altimeter believes the information from such sources to be reliable, Altimeter makes no
representation as to its accuracy and completeness. Additionally, any use of logos are protected trademarks of their respective owners and Altimeter disclaims any associate with them and any rights associated
with such trademarks.
No Performance Guarantees – Substantial or Total Losses Possible You understand that past performance results (whether actual, model/hypothetical, realized, and/or unrealized) do not guarantee, indicate,
or predict future performance results. Neither Altimeter nor any other person can guarantee or assure you that the Funds will achieve its objectives, will be profitable, will avoid losses, or will achieve results
comparable to or better than its own historical results or any other Fund’s historical results. You cannot assume that any securities or commodities identified in this Presentation have been, are, or will be
profitable, or that future investments will be profitable or avoid losses, or that future investments will equal or exceed the results of past or current investments. Substantial risk is inherent in all securities and
commodities investments, and substantial or total principal losses are possible. Investors should consider the content of this document in conjunction with investment fund quarterly reports, financial statements
and other disclosures regarding the valuations and performance of the specific investments discussed herein.
Fund Holdings With respect to any Fund’s current or future portfolio, you cannot assume, and Altimeter does not assure you, that any securities mentioned in this Presentation have been held, are currently held,
will continue to be held, will be held in the future, and/or were not, are not, and/or will not be acquired, sold, shorted, or hedged to reduce or eliminate economic exposure. Altimeter’s opinions about any
security or commodity are under constant scrutiny, re-evaluation, and revision, and Altimeter’s investment decisions can change any time without notice. Altimeter assumes no obligation to provide any updates
about any Fund’s current or future holdings, hedging transactions, or investment-related transactions or opinions.
This document is not intended for general distribution, and it may not be copied, quoted or referenced without Altimeter’s prior written consent.
Introduction
Source: Data set includes 98 public software companies. Data sourced from Bloomberg, Pitchbook and company filings. As of 12/1/23
For illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that any trends will continue or that any such trends will be profitable.
● I’m a partner at Altimeter Capital
● We invest in both public and private markets
● Today I’ll discuss the “State of SaaS” as it relates to valuations, business
performance, and macro
Software Revenue Multiples
Source: Data set includes 98 public software companies. Data sourced from Bloomberg, Pitchbook and company filings. As of 12/1/23
For illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that any trends will continue or that any such trends will be profitable.
Growth Has Slowed
Source: Data set includes 98 public software companies. Data sourced from Bloomberg, Pitchbook and company filings. As of 12/1/23
For illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that any trends will continue or that any such trends will be profitable.
Using 2015 - 2020 (up until Covid) as the period of “long term average)
● Median multiple down
22% from long term
average (6.1x vs 7.8x)
● Median growth rate
down 49% from long
term average (13% vs
27%)
● 10Y is up 93% from
long term average (4.3%
vs 2.2%)

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SaaStr Workshop Wednesdays: State of SaaS with Altimeter Capital

  • 2. Disclaimer Confidentiality/Authorized Recipients This presentation and all concepts, opinions, assumptions, conclusions, projections, and other information included in this presentation (collectively, this “Presentation”) are confidential, proprietary, and owned by Altimeter Capital Management, LP (“Altimeter”). You will maintain this Presentation in the strictest confidence and will not, in any circumstances, through any mechanism, or in whole or in part, reproduce, distribute, or disclose this Presentation to any other person without the express written consent of Altimeter’s General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer, or Chief Financial Officer. Unauthorized distribution, disclosure, reproduction, use, possession, access, viewing, or use of this Presentation is strictly prohibited. These restrictions do not apply to disclosures required by applicable law or that are protected against contractual disclosure limitations by applicable law, as reasonably advised by a validly licensed lawyer, and only to the extent so required or protected. You are authorized to view or otherwise access, receive, or possess this Presentation only if such viewing, access, receipt, or possession is provided directly by Altimeter, and then only for your exclusive and confidential information. Non-Solicitation Nothing in this Presentation constitutes an offer to sell, or a solicitation of interest to purchase, or an inducement to renew or maintain, interest in any future or existing Altimeter-managed fund (collectively, the “Funds”) or any advisory services. These materials do not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all the information that you may desire in investigating the Funds. These materials are merely for preliminary discussion only and may not be relied upon for making any investment, business, or contractual decisions with respect to the Funds. Any such offers, solicitations, or inducements can be made only pursuant to the applicable Fund’s offering documents, investment agreements, disclosures, and procedures, and can be made only to qualified purchasers as determined by Altimeter after required due diligence. The information contained in this document (together with any additional materials provide in connection herewith) is superseded by, and is qualified in its entirety by, such offering materials. Your viewing or other access to this Presentation does not constitute any part of those necessary documents, agreements, disclosures, procedures, or required due diligence, and does not constitute any Altimeter determination that you are a qualified purchaser. Neither the SEC nor any other governmental or regulatory agency has reviewed, approved, or endorsed anything contained in this Presentation. Investment Risks Any investment in the Funds involves significant risks due to, among other things, the nature of such investments, and can result in partial, significant, or total loss of invested capital. In making any such decision, you must rely only on the applicable governing documents and agreements, as well as your own independent investigation. Investors must read and understand all the risks described in a Fund’s final confidential private placement memorandum and/or the related subscription documents before making a commitment. The recipient also must consult its own legal, accounting and tax advisors as to the legal, business, tax and related matters concerning the information contained in this document to make an independent determination and consequences of a potential investment in a Fund, including US federal, state, local and non-US tax consequences. Forward-Looking Statements This Presentation contains express and implied “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended (including outlooks, forecasts, expectations, assumptions, projections, targets, and predictions) that are current only as of the date of this Presentation. You understand that (a) all forward-looking statements are inherently subject to existing and future material known, unknown, and unknowable risks, uncertainties, and assumptions and might therefore be or become materially or totally inaccurate; (b) neither Altimeter nor any other person can assure you that such forward-looking statements are correct or will prove to have been correct or will remain correct; (c) actual results can materially differ; (d) forward-looking statements are not, and cannot be considered to be, guarantees, predictions, or indications of actual events that will occur; (e) Altimeter is constantly scrutinizing, re-evaluating, and revising its own opinions and assumptions about its own forward-looking statements, so they always remain subject to material changes or reversals at any time in Altimeter’s sole and absolute discretion without notice; and (f) Altimeter has no obligation to update, revise, supplement, or otherwise notify you about changes or reversals in Altimeter’s views about such forward-looking statements or ultimate results. You will not rely on any such forward-looking statements for any investment, financial, business, or operational decision or for any other purpose. No Investment Recommendations Nothing in this Presentation is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, commodity, or other asset/product/service. Altimeter’s express or implied opinions, assumptions, projections, and other forward-looking statements about the current or future value or about the current or future price of any securities are valid only as of the date of this Presentation, and are inherently based on known, unknown, and unknowable risks, uncertainties, and assumptions – any or all of which could be materially or totally inaccurate. Altimeter constantly scrutinizes, re-evaluates, and revises its own opinions, assumptions, projections, and other forward-looking views about all securities, so any such opinions, assumptions, projections, and other forward-looking views contained in this Presentation are always subject to material changes in Altimeter’s sole and absolute discretion without any notice. Altimeter assumes no obligation to update or otherwise notify you when Altimeter’s opinions, assumptions, and projections change or reverse. Accordingly, you will not base any investment, financial, business, or operational decisions on any opinions, assumptions, projections, forward-looking views, or other information contained in this Presentation, including any decision to buy, sell, or hold any company security, any Fund interest, or any commodity, or any decision to initiate, maintain, or increase your interest in any Fund. All securities and commodities investments, including your Fund investment, are inherently risky and can result in partial, substantial, or total loss of invested capital.
  • 3. Disclaimer No Updates and No Warranties Unless otherwise specifically indicated in a particular instance, everything in this Presentation speaks only as of the date of this Presentation. This Presentation is necessarily incomplete and necessarily reflects only a small, non-exclusive, and out-of-context sample of Altimeter’s opinions, assumptions, projections, processes, valuation metrics, considerations, and available information (including information provided by third-parties). While Altimeter currently believes that this Presentation is accurate in isolation, Altimeter makes no express or implied warranty as to this Presentation’s current or future accuracy, relevance, or completeness, and Altimeter cannot accept responsibility for any errors or omissions appearing in this Presentation. This Presentation’s subject matter (including each forward-looking statement) is constantly evolving, and is constantly under scrutiny, re-evaluation, and revision by Altimeter, and always remains subject to change, modification, termination, supplementation, or reversal at any time in Altimeter’s sole and absolute discretion or without Altimeter’s knowledge. Altimeter has no obligation to update, supplement, or revise this Presentation, or to otherwise notify you, if or when (a) any information in this Presentation (including each forward-looking statement) changes or reverses or if any information (including any forward-looking statement) proves to be inaccurate; (b) new, changed, or different events, circumstances, developments, or other factors materially change or reverse the conclusions, opinions, assumptions, forward-looking statements, or other information contained in this Presentation; or (c) Altimeter modifies, revokes, terminates, supplements, reverses, or otherwise changes any Altimeter opinions, conclusions, assumptions, projections, personnel, or investment strategies, restrictions, parameters, procedures, or policies, or any other information External Sources Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources. Although Altimeter believes the information from such sources to be reliable, Altimeter makes no representation as to its accuracy and completeness. Additionally, any use of logos are protected trademarks of their respective owners and Altimeter disclaims any associate with them and any rights associated with such trademarks. No Performance Guarantees – Substantial or Total Losses Possible You understand that past performance results (whether actual, model/hypothetical, realized, and/or unrealized) do not guarantee, indicate, or predict future performance results. Neither Altimeter nor any other person can guarantee or assure you that the Funds will achieve its objectives, will be profitable, will avoid losses, or will achieve results comparable to or better than its own historical results or any other Fund’s historical results. You cannot assume that any securities or commodities identified in this Presentation have been, are, or will be profitable, or that future investments will be profitable or avoid losses, or that future investments will equal or exceed the results of past or current investments. Substantial risk is inherent in all securities and commodities investments, and substantial or total principal losses are possible. Investors should consider the content of this document in conjunction with investment fund quarterly reports, financial statements and other disclosures regarding the valuations and performance of the specific investments discussed herein. Fund Holdings With respect to any Fund’s current or future portfolio, you cannot assume, and Altimeter does not assure you, that any securities mentioned in this Presentation have been held, are currently held, will continue to be held, will be held in the future, and/or were not, are not, and/or will not be acquired, sold, shorted, or hedged to reduce or eliminate economic exposure. Altimeter’s opinions about any security or commodity are under constant scrutiny, re-evaluation, and revision, and Altimeter’s investment decisions can change any time without notice. Altimeter assumes no obligation to provide any updates about any Fund’s current or future holdings, hedging transactions, or investment-related transactions or opinions. This document is not intended for general distribution, and it may not be copied, quoted or referenced without Altimeter’s prior written consent.
  • 4. Introduction Source: Data set includes 98 public software companies. Data sourced from Bloomberg, Pitchbook and company filings. As of 12/1/23 For illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that any trends will continue or that any such trends will be profitable. ● I’m a partner at Altimeter Capital ● We invest in both public and private markets ● Today I’ll discuss the “State of SaaS” as it relates to valuations, business performance, and macro
  • 5. Software Revenue Multiples Source: Data set includes 98 public software companies. Data sourced from Bloomberg, Pitchbook and company filings. As of 12/1/23 For illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that any trends will continue or that any such trends will be profitable.
  • 6. Growth Has Slowed Source: Data set includes 98 public software companies. Data sourced from Bloomberg, Pitchbook and company filings. As of 12/1/23 For illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that any trends will continue or that any such trends will be profitable. Using 2015 - 2020 (up until Covid) as the period of “long term average) ● Median multiple down 22% from long term average (6.1x vs 7.8x) ● Median growth rate down 49% from long term average (13% vs 27%) ● 10Y is up 93% from long term average (4.3% vs 2.2%)
  • 7. Software Growth Adjusted Revenue Multiples Source: Data set includes 98 public software companies. Data sourced from Bloomberg, Pitchbook and company filings. As of 12/1/23 For illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that any trends will continue or that any such trends will be profitable. Using 2015 - 2020 (up until Covid) as the period of “long term average) ● Growth adjusted multiples are up 62% from long term average (0.45x vs 0.28x)
  • 8. Software FCF Multiples Source: Data set includes 98 public software companies. Data sourced from Bloomberg, Pitchbook and company filings. As of 12/1/23 For illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that any trends will continue or that any such trends will be profitable. ● FCF multiples are down 8% from the long term average (36.7x vs 40.1x)
  • 9. Recap on Software Multiples Source: Data set includes 98 public software companies. Data sourced from Bloomberg, Pitchbook and company filings. As of 12/1/23 For illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that any trends will continue or that any such trends will be profitable.
  • 10. Recent Software Performance Source: Data set includes 70+ public software companies. Data sourced from Bloomberg, Pitchbook and company filings. As of 12/1/23 For illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that any trends will continue or that any such trends will be profitable.
  • 11. Net New ARR Growth Starting to Rebound Source: Data set includes 70+ public software companies. Data sourced from Bloomberg, Pitchbook and company filings. As of 12/1/23 For illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that any trends will continue or that any such trends will be profitable.
  • 12. Additional Performance Metrics Source: Data set includes 98 public software companies. Data sourced from Bloomberg, Pitchbook and company filings. As of 12/1/23 For illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that any trends will continue or that any such trends will be profitable.
  • 13. Market Rewarding Efficient Growth Source: Data set includes 98 public software companies. Data sourced from Bloomberg, Pitchbook and company filings. As of 12/1/23 For illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that any trends will continue or that any such trends will be profitable. R^2 = 0.7 R^2 = 0.5 As of 9/10/21 Current
  • 14. Rate Expectations Starting to Come Down Data sourced from Bloomberg, Pitchbook and company filings. As of 12/1/23 For illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that any trends will continue or that any such trends will be profitable.
  • 15. Dispersion: Not All Software Created Equal Source: Data set includes 98 public software companies. Data sourced from Bloomberg, Pitchbook and company filings. As of 12/1/23 For illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that any trends will continue or that any such trends will be profitable. Historical Dispersion Covid Anomaly New Normal?
  • 16. Takeaways For illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that any trends will continue or that any such trends will be profitable. ● Valuations today appear expensive relative to growth, profitability and interest rates. I don’t expect a “bounce back” in public valuations ● Interest rates have been a headwind to valuations since the end of 2021. As we head into 2024 it appears that rates will start to become a tailwind to valuations (ie rates projected to fall) ● Current debate is do we have a hard or soft landing in 2024 (ie are rates declining because economic growth is expected to deteriorate, or because inflation is coming down and rates this high are no longer needed)