3. Investment Decision
It is the decision related to long term project
demanding huge capital expenditure or
investments.
They are also known as capital expenditure
decisions
3Indukoori S S N Raju
4. Nature of Investment Decision
Irreversible
Return only after long period
Risky
Involves huge amount of capital
Requires expertise
More financial complexity
4Indukoori S S N Raju
5. Investment Decision Process
A. Project Analysis
B. Feasibility Study
C. Financial Appraisal
D. Capital Budgeting
E. Capital Rationing
5Indukoori S S N Raju
7. Project
It is a firm’s project to do future business.
Projects demand present capital investment for
potential future returns.
Capital demanded by the projects is known as
Investment or capital expenditure
Future returns are known as cash flows (CFs),
Cash Inflows (CIFs) and free cash flows (FCFs).
7Indukoori S S N Raju
8. Project Analysis
Each project has its own nature and character
making the project unique
It is the process of analysing potential business
projects for selection.
It has multiple stages and different dimensions.
In order to sort the projects and select one or
more out of them, all projects have to be
analyzed independently.
8Indukoori S S N Raju
9. Types of projects
1. New Project
2. Expansion
3. Mandatory projects: Safety and Legal norms
4. R&D
5. Long Term contract
6. Replacement: Maintenance and Cost Reduction
9Indukoori S S N Raju
10. Project Types
10Indukoori S S N Raju
# Based on Project Types
1 Tenure Short Term Long Term
2 Cash Flows Conventional Non Conventional
3 Risk Stable Cash flows Volatile Cash Flows
4 Investment Capital Intensive Low Capital
5 Relationship Independent Mutually Exclusive
6 Need Mandatory Business
7 Scope New Expansion
11. Independent Vs Mutually Exclusive
INDEPENDENT
If the cash flows of one are unaffected by the
acceptance of the other.
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
If the cash flows of one can be adversely impacted
by the acceptance of the other.
11Indukoori S S N Raju
15. Project Feasibility Study - Types
It is the assessment of practicality of
proposed project/s
Non Financial Appraisal
Financial Appraisal
15Indukoori S S N Raju
16. Non Financial Appraisal
1. Technical Appraisal
2. Market Appraisal
3. Economic Appraisal
4. Political Appraisal
5. Legal Appraisal
16Indukoori S S N Raju
17. 1. Technical Appraisal
It is more of Project features including
o Operational difficulties
o Capacity
o Suppliers
o Locational parameters
o Regional factors
o Technology used
o Environmental factors
17Indukoori S S N Raju
18. 2. Market Appraisal
It states the outcomes of market research
o Nearness to market
o Prospective customers
o Competitive factors
o Pricing issues
o Consumer behavior
18Indukoori S S N Raju
19. 3. Economic Appraisal
Economic Factors influencing the project
o Inflation
o Interest rates
o Government policies
o Subsidies
o Tax rates
o Foreign exchange rate in case of an Offshore
project
19Indukoori S S N Raju
20. 4. Political Appraisal
One shouldn’t ignore the power of ruling and
opposition parties influencing the business and
their projects. Following are the classical examples
o Tata Motors Nano Project in West Bengal closed
down due to the influence of TMC.
o Enron’s Dhabol Power project was delayed and
closed due to the differences among ruling BJP
and opposition parties.
20Indukoori S S N Raju
21. 5. Legal Appraisal
One should do an in-depth study on the legal
boundaries and compulsion at the national, state
and regional level.
o Licensing
o Registration
o Minimum requirements in terms of capital, local
employment, contribution to society, social
responsibility, repatriation of profits, etc..
21Indukoori S S N Raju
24. 1. Financial Factors
Project Tenure (n)
Cost of Capital (k)
Cash Flows (CFs)
24Indukoori S S N Raju
25. Project Tenure (n)
• It is the life of the project usually mentioned in
years.
• Longer the tenure, more risky is the project.
• Shorter tenure projects are more predictable
and considered to be low risky.
25Indukoori S S N Raju
26. Cost of Capital (k)
• It is the weighted average cost of capital of the
firm (WACC),
• It is denoted as ‘k’
• It the combination of cost of equity and debt with
their respective weights
WACC (k) = weke + wd kd
Where we = Weight of equity
ke = Cost of equity
wd = Weight of debt
kd = cost of debt
26Indukoori S S N Raju
27. Cash Flows (CFs)
They are the cash flows towards the firm and away
from the firm. They can be classified as
1. Cash Out flow (COF) : Investment / Expenses
2. Cash Inflows (CIF) : Returns
3. Net Cash Flows (NCF) : Profits = CIF - COF
If CF Is -ve, it means CIF is > COF
CF is +ve, it means CIF is < COF
27Indukoori S S N Raju
28. Cash Out Flows (Investments)
• Higher the investment, higher the risk and vice
versa.
• Investments are known as cash out flows.
• Cash out flow could be one time or recurring
during the tenure of the project.
• Most of the projects have investment for the first
few years.
28Indukoori S S N Raju
29. Cash In Flows (Returns)
• They usually start few years after the
execution of the project
• They vary periodically over the tenure of the
project or project life.
29Indukoori S S N Raju
30. Cash Flow Sequence
A. Conventional / Normal Cash Flows
• One change of sign in the series of cashflows.
• -Ve CF followed by a series of +Ve cash inflows.
• Investments followed by returns.
B. Non Conventional / Non Normal Cash Flow:
• Two or more changes of signs.
• -Ve CF, then +Ve CFs, then –Ve CFs.
• This happens due to the cost of closing the project.
• Example: Nuclear Power plant.
30Indukoori S S N Raju
31. Inflow (+) or Outflow (-) in Year
0 1 2 3 4 5
- + + + + + N
- + + + + - NN
- - - + + + N
+ + + - - - N
- + + - + - NN
N / NN
31Indukoori S S N Raju
32. Process of Financial Appraisal
1. Forecast project tenure
2. Define Cash Inflows & Outflows of project
3. Assess certainty and Cash flow risk
4. Determine WACC (k)
32Indukoori S S N Raju
34. Capital Budgeting
1. Budget is the tool of planning in any function or
domain.
2. Capital Budgeting is the tool of financial or
investment planning.
3. Alike any budget, it has two counter heads in
planning i.e. Investments (Cash Outflow) Returns
(Cash Inflow)
34Indukoori S S N Raju
35. Tools Of Capital Budgeting
Traditional Tools
Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Pay Back Period (PBP)
Discounting tools
Net Present Value (NPV)
Benefit Cost Ration (BCR)
or Profitability Index (PI)
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Annual Capital Charge (ACC)
35Indukoori S S N Raju
36. Process of Capital Budgeting
1. Select the potential projects after financial after the
feasibility study.
2. Choose the right tool to appraise each project.
3. Arrive at the value of the project using capital budgeting
tool.
4. Develop accept or reject criteria.
5. Arrive at accept or reject decision based on the tools
applied.
36Indukoori S S N Raju
38. Capital Rationing
Rationing is the process of allocating limited resources
to the eligible elements.
Capital rationing is the process of allocating limited
capital to the feasible projects.
It occurs when a company cannot fund all the profitable
projects.
It also occurs when the company chooses not to fund
all positive NPV projects. In this case, the company
typically sets an upper limit on the total amount of
capital expenditures that it will make in the upcoming
year.
38Indukoori S S N Raju
39. Capital Rationing Process
Evaluate all the projects using capital budgeting.
Determine the capital available or Set the upper limit of
capital for investment.
Rank the projects based on the capital budgeting tools
like NPV, IRR and PI.
Start selecting the projects based on the ranking from
top rank in the descending order.
Select n number of projects till the capital limit gets
exhausted.
39Indukoori S S N Raju
40. Capital Rationing Process
All the projects cannot be selected as the capital is
limited.
All the projects will be fully invested in the selected
projects.
In some cases, the last project may or may not be fully
invested due to the mismatch of capital availability and
capital required.
The last project may also be ignored due to non
feasibility of partial investment.
40Indukoori S S N Raju
41. Capital Rationing Example
Limited Capital : Rs 100 Cr
Capital Budgeting tool used to Rank: NPV
Criteria to select the last project in case of partial
investment: Add more capital if available capital after
previous projects allocation is more than 50 %
Potential Projects: 10
41Indukoori S S N Raju
42. Potential Projects
42Indukoori S S N Raju
Project Capital Required or Cash Outflow
A Rs 40 Cr
B Rs 12 Cr
C Rs 38 Cr
D Rs 25 Cr
E Rs 16 Cr
F Rs 10 Cr
G Rs 42 Cr
H Rs 35 Cr
I Rs 10 Cr
J Rs 50 Cr
43. Projects Ranking based on NPV
43Indukoori S S N Raju
Project Ranking Capital Required / Cash Outflow
I 1 Rs 10 Cr
H 2 Rs 35 Cr
A 3 Rs 40 Cr
C 4 Rs 38 Cr
F 5 Rs 10 Cr
B 6 Rs 12 Cr
D 7 Rs 25 Cr
J 8 Rs 50 Cr
G 9 Rs 42 Cr
E 10 Rs 16 Cr
44. Capital Rationing with Rs 100 Cr
44Indukoori S S N Raju
Project Ranking
Capital
Required
Capital Available for
each project
I 1 Rs 10 Cr Rs 100 Cr
H 2 Rs 35 Cr Rs 90 Cr
A 3 Rs 40 Cr Rs 55 Cr
C 4 Rs 38 Cr Rs 15 Cr
F 5 Rs 10 Cr Rs 10 Cr
B 6 Rs 12 Cr Rs 12 Cr
D 7 Rs 25 Cr Rs 25 Cr
J 8 Rs 50 Cr Rs 50 Cr
G 9 Rs 42 Cr Rs 42 Cr
E 10 Rs 16 Cr Rs 16 Cr
45. Capital Rationing Example
All 10 projects A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H,I and J are profitable
and feasible based on NPV.
All projects are ranked based on NPV.
First 3 projects were selected for investment. i.e.
projects I, H and A.
Though partial investment was available in project 4 i.e
project C, it is not considered as the available capital is
less than 50% of the required capital for the project.
though all 10 projects are profitable only 3 projects
were selected using capital rationing.
45Indukoori S S N Raju
46. In case more projects have to be rejected due to capital limitation,
firm do apply following techniques to select one or few projects.
1. Increase the cost of capital: To reflect all direct like floatation
costs and indirect costs.
2. Use linear programming: To maximize NPV subject to not
exceeding the constraints on staffing in engineering, marketing,
administration, management, technology etc due project
diversification
3. Post audit expenses: Managers forecast unreasonable cash
flows.
4. Managers compensation: Tied to the project performance
Capital Rationing
46Indukoori S S N Raju