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Should we build
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INVESTMENT DECISIONS
Indukoori S S N Raju
Indukoori S S N Raju 2
Investment Decision
 It is the decision related to long term project
demanding huge capital expenditure or
investments.
 They are also known as capital expenditure
decisions
3Indukoori S S N Raju
Nature of Investment Decision
 Irreversible
 Return only after long period
 Risky
 Involves huge amount of capital
 Requires expertise
 More financial complexity
4Indukoori S S N Raju
Investment Decision Process
A. Project Analysis
B. Feasibility Study
C. Financial Appraisal
D. Capital Budgeting
E. Capital Rationing
5Indukoori S S N Raju
A. PROJECT ANALYSIS
Indukoori S S N Raju 6
Project
 It is a firm’s project to do future business.
 Projects demand present capital investment for
potential future returns.
 Capital demanded by the projects is known as
Investment or capital expenditure
 Future returns are known as cash flows (CFs),
Cash Inflows (CIFs) and free cash flows (FCFs).
7Indukoori S S N Raju
Project Analysis
 Each project has its own nature and character
making the project unique
 It is the process of analysing potential business
projects for selection.
 It has multiple stages and different dimensions.
 In order to sort the projects and select one or
more out of them, all projects have to be
analyzed independently.
8Indukoori S S N Raju
Types of projects
1. New Project
2. Expansion
3. Mandatory projects: Safety and Legal norms
4. R&D
5. Long Term contract
6. Replacement: Maintenance and Cost Reduction
9Indukoori S S N Raju
Project Types
10Indukoori S S N Raju
# Based on Project Types
1 Tenure Short Term Long Term
2 Cash Flows Conventional Non Conventional
3 Risk Stable Cash flows Volatile Cash Flows
4 Investment Capital Intensive Low Capital
5 Relationship Independent Mutually Exclusive
6 Need Mandatory Business
7 Scope New Expansion
Independent Vs Mutually Exclusive
 INDEPENDENT
If the cash flows of one are unaffected by the
acceptance of the other.
 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
If the cash flows of one can be adversely impacted
by the acceptance of the other.
11Indukoori S S N Raju
An Example of
Mutually Exclusive Projects
Road Way or Rope Way
12Indukoori S S N Raju
B. PROJECT FEASIBILITY STUDY
Indukoori S S N Raju 13
Project Feasibility Study
It is the assessment of practicality of
proposed project/s.
14Indukoori S S N Raju
Project Feasibility Study - Types
It is the assessment of practicality of
proposed project/s
 Non Financial Appraisal
 Financial Appraisal
15Indukoori S S N Raju
Non Financial Appraisal
1. Technical Appraisal
2. Market Appraisal
3. Economic Appraisal
4. Political Appraisal
5. Legal Appraisal
16Indukoori S S N Raju
1. Technical Appraisal
It is more of Project features including
o Operational difficulties
o Capacity
o Suppliers
o Locational parameters
o Regional factors
o Technology used
o Environmental factors
17Indukoori S S N Raju
2. Market Appraisal
It states the outcomes of market research
o Nearness to market
o Prospective customers
o Competitive factors
o Pricing issues
o Consumer behavior
18Indukoori S S N Raju
3. Economic Appraisal
Economic Factors influencing the project
o Inflation
o Interest rates
o Government policies
o Subsidies
o Tax rates
o Foreign exchange rate in case of an Offshore
project
19Indukoori S S N Raju
4. Political Appraisal
One shouldn’t ignore the power of ruling and
opposition parties influencing the business and
their projects. Following are the classical examples
o Tata Motors Nano Project in West Bengal closed
down due to the influence of TMC.
o Enron’s Dhabol Power project was delayed and
closed due to the differences among ruling BJP
and opposition parties.
20Indukoori S S N Raju
5. Legal Appraisal
One should do an in-depth study on the legal
boundaries and compulsion at the national, state
and regional level.
o Licensing
o Registration
o Minimum requirements in terms of capital, local
employment, contribution to society, social
responsibility, repatriation of profits, etc..
21Indukoori S S N Raju
C. FINANCIAL APPRAISAL
Indukoori S S N Raju 22
C. Financial Appraisal
1. Financial factors
2. Capital Budgeting
23Indukoori S S N Raju
1. Financial Factors
 Project Tenure (n)
 Cost of Capital (k)
 Cash Flows (CFs)
24Indukoori S S N Raju
Project Tenure (n)
• It is the life of the project usually mentioned in
years.
• Longer the tenure, more risky is the project.
• Shorter tenure projects are more predictable
and considered to be low risky.
25Indukoori S S N Raju
Cost of Capital (k)
• It is the weighted average cost of capital of the
firm (WACC),
• It is denoted as ‘k’
• It the combination of cost of equity and debt with
their respective weights
WACC (k) = weke + wd kd
Where we = Weight of equity
ke = Cost of equity
wd = Weight of debt
kd = cost of debt
26Indukoori S S N Raju
Cash Flows (CFs)
They are the cash flows towards the firm and away
from the firm. They can be classified as
1. Cash Out flow (COF) : Investment / Expenses
2. Cash Inflows (CIF) : Returns
3. Net Cash Flows (NCF) : Profits = CIF - COF
If CF Is -ve, it means CIF is > COF
CF is +ve, it means CIF is < COF
27Indukoori S S N Raju
Cash Out Flows (Investments)
• Higher the investment, higher the risk and vice
versa.
• Investments are known as cash out flows.
• Cash out flow could be one time or recurring
during the tenure of the project.
• Most of the projects have investment for the first
few years.
28Indukoori S S N Raju
Cash In Flows (Returns)
• They usually start few years after the
execution of the project
• They vary periodically over the tenure of the
project or project life.
29Indukoori S S N Raju
Cash Flow Sequence
A. Conventional / Normal Cash Flows
• One change of sign in the series of cashflows.
• -Ve CF followed by a series of +Ve cash inflows.
• Investments followed by returns.
B. Non Conventional / Non Normal Cash Flow:
• Two or more changes of signs.
• -Ve CF, then +Ve CFs, then –Ve CFs.
• This happens due to the cost of closing the project.
• Example: Nuclear Power plant.
30Indukoori S S N Raju
Inflow (+) or Outflow (-) in Year
0 1 2 3 4 5
- + + + + + N
- + + + + - NN
- - - + + + N
+ + + - - - N
- + + - + - NN
N / NN
31Indukoori S S N Raju
Process of Financial Appraisal
1. Forecast project tenure
2. Define Cash Inflows & Outflows of project
3. Assess certainty and Cash flow risk
4. Determine WACC (k)
32Indukoori S S N Raju
D. CAPITAL BUDGETING
Indukoori S S N Raju 33
Capital Budgeting
1. Budget is the tool of planning in any function or
domain.
2. Capital Budgeting is the tool of financial or
investment planning.
3. Alike any budget, it has two counter heads in
planning i.e. Investments (Cash Outflow) Returns
(Cash Inflow)
34Indukoori S S N Raju
Tools Of Capital Budgeting
 Traditional Tools
 Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
 Pay Back Period (PBP)
 Discounting tools
 Net Present Value (NPV)
 Benefit Cost Ration (BCR)
or Profitability Index (PI)
 Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
 Annual Capital Charge (ACC)
35Indukoori S S N Raju
Process of Capital Budgeting
1. Select the potential projects after financial after the
feasibility study.
2. Choose the right tool to appraise each project.
3. Arrive at the value of the project using capital budgeting
tool.
4. Develop accept or reject criteria.
5. Arrive at accept or reject decision based on the tools
applied.
36Indukoori S S N Raju
E. CAPITAL RATIONING
Indukoori S S N Raju 37
Capital Rationing
 Rationing is the process of allocating limited resources
to the eligible elements.
 Capital rationing is the process of allocating limited
capital to the feasible projects.
 It occurs when a company cannot fund all the profitable
projects.
 It also occurs when the company chooses not to fund
all positive NPV projects. In this case, the company
typically sets an upper limit on the total amount of
capital expenditures that it will make in the upcoming
year.
38Indukoori S S N Raju
Capital Rationing Process
 Evaluate all the projects using capital budgeting.
 Determine the capital available or Set the upper limit of
capital for investment.
 Rank the projects based on the capital budgeting tools
like NPV, IRR and PI.
 Start selecting the projects based on the ranking from
top rank in the descending order.
 Select n number of projects till the capital limit gets
exhausted.
39Indukoori S S N Raju
Capital Rationing Process
 All the projects cannot be selected as the capital is
limited.
 All the projects will be fully invested in the selected
projects.
 In some cases, the last project may or may not be fully
invested due to the mismatch of capital availability and
capital required.
 The last project may also be ignored due to non
feasibility of partial investment.
40Indukoori S S N Raju
Capital Rationing Example
 Limited Capital : Rs 100 Cr
 Capital Budgeting tool used to Rank: NPV
 Criteria to select the last project in case of partial
investment: Add more capital if available capital after
previous projects allocation is more than 50 %
 Potential Projects: 10
41Indukoori S S N Raju
Potential Projects
42Indukoori S S N Raju
Project Capital Required or Cash Outflow
A Rs 40 Cr
B Rs 12 Cr
C Rs 38 Cr
D Rs 25 Cr
E Rs 16 Cr
F Rs 10 Cr
G Rs 42 Cr
H Rs 35 Cr
I Rs 10 Cr
J Rs 50 Cr
Projects Ranking based on NPV
43Indukoori S S N Raju
Project Ranking Capital Required / Cash Outflow
I 1 Rs 10 Cr
H 2 Rs 35 Cr
A 3 Rs 40 Cr
C 4 Rs 38 Cr
F 5 Rs 10 Cr
B 6 Rs 12 Cr
D 7 Rs 25 Cr
J 8 Rs 50 Cr
G 9 Rs 42 Cr
E 10 Rs 16 Cr
Capital Rationing with Rs 100 Cr
44Indukoori S S N Raju
Project Ranking
Capital
Required
Capital Available for
each project
I 1 Rs 10 Cr Rs 100 Cr
H 2 Rs 35 Cr Rs 90 Cr
A 3 Rs 40 Cr Rs 55 Cr
C 4 Rs 38 Cr Rs 15 Cr
F 5 Rs 10 Cr Rs 10 Cr
B 6 Rs 12 Cr Rs 12 Cr
D 7 Rs 25 Cr Rs 25 Cr
J 8 Rs 50 Cr Rs 50 Cr
G 9 Rs 42 Cr Rs 42 Cr
E 10 Rs 16 Cr Rs 16 Cr
Capital Rationing Example
 All 10 projects A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H,I and J are profitable
and feasible based on NPV.
 All projects are ranked based on NPV.
 First 3 projects were selected for investment. i.e.
projects I, H and A.
 Though partial investment was available in project 4 i.e
project C, it is not considered as the available capital is
less than 50% of the required capital for the project.
 though all 10 projects are profitable only 3 projects
were selected using capital rationing.
45Indukoori S S N Raju
In case more projects have to be rejected due to capital limitation,
firm do apply following techniques to select one or few projects.
1. Increase the cost of capital: To reflect all direct like floatation
costs and indirect costs.
2. Use linear programming: To maximize NPV subject to not
exceeding the constraints on staffing in engineering, marketing,
administration, management, technology etc due project
diversification
3. Post audit expenses: Managers forecast unreasonable cash
flows.
4. Managers compensation: Tied to the project performance
Capital Rationing
46Indukoori S S N Raju
Thank You
47Indukoori S S N Raju

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Investment decisions

  • 1. Should we build a steel plan
  • 2. INVESTMENT DECISIONS Indukoori S S N Raju Indukoori S S N Raju 2
  • 3. Investment Decision  It is the decision related to long term project demanding huge capital expenditure or investments.  They are also known as capital expenditure decisions 3Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 4. Nature of Investment Decision  Irreversible  Return only after long period  Risky  Involves huge amount of capital  Requires expertise  More financial complexity 4Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 5. Investment Decision Process A. Project Analysis B. Feasibility Study C. Financial Appraisal D. Capital Budgeting E. Capital Rationing 5Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 7. Project  It is a firm’s project to do future business.  Projects demand present capital investment for potential future returns.  Capital demanded by the projects is known as Investment or capital expenditure  Future returns are known as cash flows (CFs), Cash Inflows (CIFs) and free cash flows (FCFs). 7Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 8. Project Analysis  Each project has its own nature and character making the project unique  It is the process of analysing potential business projects for selection.  It has multiple stages and different dimensions.  In order to sort the projects and select one or more out of them, all projects have to be analyzed independently. 8Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 9. Types of projects 1. New Project 2. Expansion 3. Mandatory projects: Safety and Legal norms 4. R&D 5. Long Term contract 6. Replacement: Maintenance and Cost Reduction 9Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 10. Project Types 10Indukoori S S N Raju # Based on Project Types 1 Tenure Short Term Long Term 2 Cash Flows Conventional Non Conventional 3 Risk Stable Cash flows Volatile Cash Flows 4 Investment Capital Intensive Low Capital 5 Relationship Independent Mutually Exclusive 6 Need Mandatory Business 7 Scope New Expansion
  • 11. Independent Vs Mutually Exclusive  INDEPENDENT If the cash flows of one are unaffected by the acceptance of the other.  MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE If the cash flows of one can be adversely impacted by the acceptance of the other. 11Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 12. An Example of Mutually Exclusive Projects Road Way or Rope Way 12Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 13. B. PROJECT FEASIBILITY STUDY Indukoori S S N Raju 13
  • 14. Project Feasibility Study It is the assessment of practicality of proposed project/s. 14Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 15. Project Feasibility Study - Types It is the assessment of practicality of proposed project/s  Non Financial Appraisal  Financial Appraisal 15Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 16. Non Financial Appraisal 1. Technical Appraisal 2. Market Appraisal 3. Economic Appraisal 4. Political Appraisal 5. Legal Appraisal 16Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 17. 1. Technical Appraisal It is more of Project features including o Operational difficulties o Capacity o Suppliers o Locational parameters o Regional factors o Technology used o Environmental factors 17Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 18. 2. Market Appraisal It states the outcomes of market research o Nearness to market o Prospective customers o Competitive factors o Pricing issues o Consumer behavior 18Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 19. 3. Economic Appraisal Economic Factors influencing the project o Inflation o Interest rates o Government policies o Subsidies o Tax rates o Foreign exchange rate in case of an Offshore project 19Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 20. 4. Political Appraisal One shouldn’t ignore the power of ruling and opposition parties influencing the business and their projects. Following are the classical examples o Tata Motors Nano Project in West Bengal closed down due to the influence of TMC. o Enron’s Dhabol Power project was delayed and closed due to the differences among ruling BJP and opposition parties. 20Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 21. 5. Legal Appraisal One should do an in-depth study on the legal boundaries and compulsion at the national, state and regional level. o Licensing o Registration o Minimum requirements in terms of capital, local employment, contribution to society, social responsibility, repatriation of profits, etc.. 21Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 23. C. Financial Appraisal 1. Financial factors 2. Capital Budgeting 23Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 24. 1. Financial Factors  Project Tenure (n)  Cost of Capital (k)  Cash Flows (CFs) 24Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 25. Project Tenure (n) • It is the life of the project usually mentioned in years. • Longer the tenure, more risky is the project. • Shorter tenure projects are more predictable and considered to be low risky. 25Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 26. Cost of Capital (k) • It is the weighted average cost of capital of the firm (WACC), • It is denoted as ‘k’ • It the combination of cost of equity and debt with their respective weights WACC (k) = weke + wd kd Where we = Weight of equity ke = Cost of equity wd = Weight of debt kd = cost of debt 26Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 27. Cash Flows (CFs) They are the cash flows towards the firm and away from the firm. They can be classified as 1. Cash Out flow (COF) : Investment / Expenses 2. Cash Inflows (CIF) : Returns 3. Net Cash Flows (NCF) : Profits = CIF - COF If CF Is -ve, it means CIF is > COF CF is +ve, it means CIF is < COF 27Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 28. Cash Out Flows (Investments) • Higher the investment, higher the risk and vice versa. • Investments are known as cash out flows. • Cash out flow could be one time or recurring during the tenure of the project. • Most of the projects have investment for the first few years. 28Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 29. Cash In Flows (Returns) • They usually start few years after the execution of the project • They vary periodically over the tenure of the project or project life. 29Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 30. Cash Flow Sequence A. Conventional / Normal Cash Flows • One change of sign in the series of cashflows. • -Ve CF followed by a series of +Ve cash inflows. • Investments followed by returns. B. Non Conventional / Non Normal Cash Flow: • Two or more changes of signs. • -Ve CF, then +Ve CFs, then –Ve CFs. • This happens due to the cost of closing the project. • Example: Nuclear Power plant. 30Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 31. Inflow (+) or Outflow (-) in Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 - + + + + + N - + + + + - NN - - - + + + N + + + - - - N - + + - + - NN N / NN 31Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 32. Process of Financial Appraisal 1. Forecast project tenure 2. Define Cash Inflows & Outflows of project 3. Assess certainty and Cash flow risk 4. Determine WACC (k) 32Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 34. Capital Budgeting 1. Budget is the tool of planning in any function or domain. 2. Capital Budgeting is the tool of financial or investment planning. 3. Alike any budget, it has two counter heads in planning i.e. Investments (Cash Outflow) Returns (Cash Inflow) 34Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 35. Tools Of Capital Budgeting  Traditional Tools  Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)  Pay Back Period (PBP)  Discounting tools  Net Present Value (NPV)  Benefit Cost Ration (BCR) or Profitability Index (PI)  Internal Rate of Return (IRR)  Annual Capital Charge (ACC) 35Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 36. Process of Capital Budgeting 1. Select the potential projects after financial after the feasibility study. 2. Choose the right tool to appraise each project. 3. Arrive at the value of the project using capital budgeting tool. 4. Develop accept or reject criteria. 5. Arrive at accept or reject decision based on the tools applied. 36Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 38. Capital Rationing  Rationing is the process of allocating limited resources to the eligible elements.  Capital rationing is the process of allocating limited capital to the feasible projects.  It occurs when a company cannot fund all the profitable projects.  It also occurs when the company chooses not to fund all positive NPV projects. In this case, the company typically sets an upper limit on the total amount of capital expenditures that it will make in the upcoming year. 38Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 39. Capital Rationing Process  Evaluate all the projects using capital budgeting.  Determine the capital available or Set the upper limit of capital for investment.  Rank the projects based on the capital budgeting tools like NPV, IRR and PI.  Start selecting the projects based on the ranking from top rank in the descending order.  Select n number of projects till the capital limit gets exhausted. 39Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 40. Capital Rationing Process  All the projects cannot be selected as the capital is limited.  All the projects will be fully invested in the selected projects.  In some cases, the last project may or may not be fully invested due to the mismatch of capital availability and capital required.  The last project may also be ignored due to non feasibility of partial investment. 40Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 41. Capital Rationing Example  Limited Capital : Rs 100 Cr  Capital Budgeting tool used to Rank: NPV  Criteria to select the last project in case of partial investment: Add more capital if available capital after previous projects allocation is more than 50 %  Potential Projects: 10 41Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 42. Potential Projects 42Indukoori S S N Raju Project Capital Required or Cash Outflow A Rs 40 Cr B Rs 12 Cr C Rs 38 Cr D Rs 25 Cr E Rs 16 Cr F Rs 10 Cr G Rs 42 Cr H Rs 35 Cr I Rs 10 Cr J Rs 50 Cr
  • 43. Projects Ranking based on NPV 43Indukoori S S N Raju Project Ranking Capital Required / Cash Outflow I 1 Rs 10 Cr H 2 Rs 35 Cr A 3 Rs 40 Cr C 4 Rs 38 Cr F 5 Rs 10 Cr B 6 Rs 12 Cr D 7 Rs 25 Cr J 8 Rs 50 Cr G 9 Rs 42 Cr E 10 Rs 16 Cr
  • 44. Capital Rationing with Rs 100 Cr 44Indukoori S S N Raju Project Ranking Capital Required Capital Available for each project I 1 Rs 10 Cr Rs 100 Cr H 2 Rs 35 Cr Rs 90 Cr A 3 Rs 40 Cr Rs 55 Cr C 4 Rs 38 Cr Rs 15 Cr F 5 Rs 10 Cr Rs 10 Cr B 6 Rs 12 Cr Rs 12 Cr D 7 Rs 25 Cr Rs 25 Cr J 8 Rs 50 Cr Rs 50 Cr G 9 Rs 42 Cr Rs 42 Cr E 10 Rs 16 Cr Rs 16 Cr
  • 45. Capital Rationing Example  All 10 projects A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H,I and J are profitable and feasible based on NPV.  All projects are ranked based on NPV.  First 3 projects were selected for investment. i.e. projects I, H and A.  Though partial investment was available in project 4 i.e project C, it is not considered as the available capital is less than 50% of the required capital for the project.  though all 10 projects are profitable only 3 projects were selected using capital rationing. 45Indukoori S S N Raju
  • 46. In case more projects have to be rejected due to capital limitation, firm do apply following techniques to select one or few projects. 1. Increase the cost of capital: To reflect all direct like floatation costs and indirect costs. 2. Use linear programming: To maximize NPV subject to not exceeding the constraints on staffing in engineering, marketing, administration, management, technology etc due project diversification 3. Post audit expenses: Managers forecast unreasonable cash flows. 4. Managers compensation: Tied to the project performance Capital Rationing 46Indukoori S S N Raju