More is required by all levels of government to deal with the systemic issues facing real estate. This presentations looks at key areas facing housing prices across Canada and the world.
1. How to make Housing more
Affordable
Paul Young CPA, CGA
September 16, 2019
2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Financial Solutions
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com
3. Agenda
Housing affordability index
Key Markets / Housing
Real Estate – Housing Starts and Real Estate Prices
Systemic issues with Real Estate
3-D and Home Building
2019 Election / Housing
Affordable Housing / Social Housing
Taxes / Principal Residence
Retrofitting Houses / Clean Energy
What’s next
4. Introduction
More is required by all levels of government to deal with the systemic issues facing
real estate. This presentations looks at key areas facing housing prices across
Canada and the world.
7. “'The reality is that too many
Canadians cannot afford to
buy a house,' the Liberal
leader Justin Trudeau said
CBC News [ Posted: Sep 09,
2015 9:10 AM ET -
September 9, 2015
”Source -
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politic
s/canada-election-2015-justin-
trudeau-affordable-housing-
1.3220479
Liberal Party of Canada / Housing
“More eco-friendly homes which
could cost home owners up to
$35,0000 in costs”
Source -
http://www.enerquality.ca/2017/11/0
8/tighter-building-codes-ottawas-
next-climate-target-cost-
homeowners-35000/
• The Harper government introduced its
ecoENERGY Retrofit program as part of
its massive stimulus package during the
recession, which was granted to more
than 250,000 homeowners in Canada.
The program provided homeowners up
to $5,000 to retrofit old insulation, doors,
windows and rooftops with more eco-
friendly alternatives. – Source -
http://www.enerquality.ca/2017/11/08/tight
er-building-codes-ottawas-next-climate-
target-cost-homeowners-35000/
• This was part of the 2009 Stimulus Package
pushed by both the NDP and Liberal Govt
Summary
• Housing is no more affordable under Trudeau -
https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-mortgage-
growth-plummets-to-the-lowest-levels-since-
2001/
• Liberals policies would push up the cost of both
existing and new homes
• Any retro-fit policies only grow if there is
incentives by the govt.
• Short-lived reprieve. RBC’s main affordability
measure for Canada in the first quarter reversed the
slight improvement it saw late last year
http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/_assets-
custom/pdf/20180703-ha.pdf
Liberals Eco Home
CPC – Eco-Fit Programs
8. Canada Housing Market – August 2019
Source – RBC Economics - http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/canadian-housing-forecast.html
Market recovery in full swing in August
• Home resales rise for a six-straight month: The cumulative gain since the February trough is 16.6% and rising. In August, resales were up 1.4%
from July on a seasonally-adjusted basis. This further tightened demand-supply conditions (ever so slightly) at the national level with the sales-
to-new listings ratio (0.60 in August) at the threshold of a sellers’ market.
National benchmark price picks up momentum:
• Its y/y rate of increase accelerated from 0.2% in July to 0.9% in August. The benchmark rose at an annualized rate of 7.5% over the past three
months.
August was a good month for the majority of local markets:
• There were further signs of early-stage recovery in Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton (though prices were still down year-over-year). Activity
approached - more normal levels and prices continued to accelerate modestly in Toronto. Ottawa and Montreal set new record highs for the
month (once again). And conditions remain reasonably positive in most of Atlantic Canada.
• Ottawa prices escalating at close to a double-digit rate: The national capital, along with Montreal, have been the two hottest housing market in
the country this year.
• Very tight demand-supply conditions will continue to drive property values higher in the near term.
Market outlook improves:
• The drop in mortgage rates this year along with still-solid job prospects and strong population growth are setting the stage for the housing
market rebound to continue into next year.
9. “Canadian home prices rose in May as Toronto remained robust despite recent government efforts to cool the market, while prices in Vancouver
picked back up to hit a fresh peak, data showed on Wednesday.
The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index, which measures changes for repeat sales of single-family homes, showed prices rose
2.2 per cent last month.
Prices were higher in all 11 cities included in the index, led by a 3.6 per cent increase in Toronto and a 3.1 per cent rise in nearby Hamilton.”
http://www.bnn.ca/toronto-housing-market-stays-hot-as-canadian-home-prices-rise-in-may-1.778739
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/06/20/household-debt-canada-pbo-report_n_17227374.html Analysis
There is issue with land, especially in major cities. Government have brought in legislation to protect sensitive areas from development
http://www.mah.gov.on.ca/Page195.aspx
British Colombia introduced foreign buyer tax to curb high price of houses - http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-
estate/cmhc-data-shows-foreign-buyers-have-almost-disappeared-from-vancouver-market
Bids and asks for property are getting ridiculous. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/kitchener-waterloo-2016-real-estate-
bidding-wars-from-toronto-buyers-1.3622610
There are old industrial sites also known as brown sites. The cost of cleaning up brown sites is very expensive.
http://warming.apps01.yorku.ca/library/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/NRTEE-Cleaning-up-the-Past-Building-the-Future.pdf
mortgage rules allow people to enter the market when they likely should not. The mortgage approval process should look at net income as well
as look at the ability to cover operational expenses for a house. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/160212/dq160212a-eng.htm
Federal government can set mortgage amortization period as well as thresholds for CMHC insurance. However, the federal government cannot
control areas, like land or real estate commission as they are either municipal or provincial jurisdiction.
http://www.queensu.ca/iigr/sites/webpublish.queensu.ca.iigrwww/files/files/conf/Arch/03/03-2/Hulchanski.pdf
PBO Office – Housing Affordability - http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/why-its-time-for-canadas-financial-industry-to-put-the-
customer-first/wcm/433faa13-8531-4a01-9a47-229ac1220a87
Source: https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/housing-market-canada-may-2017 or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-
affordability-housing-crisis-june-2017
Blog – Housing – Systemic Issues
10. 3-D Printing and Housing
Source - https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2137538/can-3d-printers-make-
cheap-homes-worlds-poor or https://www.aniwaa.com/house-3d-printer-construction/
1. Overall 3-D Printing market is predicted to be 35B by 2024 -
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tjmccue/2019/03/27/wohlers-report-2019-forecasts-35-6-billion-in-3d-
printing-industry-growth-by-2024/#5892814d7d8a
2. Houses can be built for $4,000 (USD) - https://www.businessinsider.com/3d-homes-that-take-24-hours-and-
less-than-4000-to-print-2018-9
3. Environmentally friendly - https://3dprintingindustry.com/news/is-3d-printing-really-as-ecofriendly-as-we-
think-it-is-136335/
4. 3-D Housing with First Nations and Northern Countries -
https://www.northernontariobusiness.com/industry-news/design-build/test-3d-printed-homes-for-northern-
communities-report-1142349
5. More and more players are entering the 3-D Printing of Housing- https://www.artsy.net/article/artsy-
editorial-inside-race-perfect-3d-printed
11. 2019 Election / Housing
Who would you trust to make housing more affordable?
@justintrudeau that introduced a Ponzi scheme for first-time buyers
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-experts-question-rollout-of-federal-
housing-funds/
@andrewscheer who was part of a government that revamp the mortgage terms -
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/mortgages-and-rates/seven-ways-jim-flaherty-changed-the-
canadian-mortgage-market/article17600143/
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-housing-and-real-estate-canada-june-2019
It will take all levels of govt and the private sector to fix housing!
12. Affordable Housing / Social
All levels of government along with the private sector need to start fixing the systemic issues facing availability and affordability of
housing across Canada
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/affordable-housing-units-toronto-1.5192327?fbclid=IwAR3vtk5e-y-
lxGiiKpnA6V83B8pTWAPq16cxrGEYzVDdD96ijlnjRIoKHUg
Was Vaughan not on council? So, why did Vaughan not fix the issues with social housing during his days on Council?
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-availability-and-affordability-canada-may-2019 or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/social-housing-afffordability-of-housing-canada
http://www.iheartradio.ca/newstalk-1010/news/study-says-rents-in-most-cities-are-unaffordable-for-lower-income-earners-
1.9466762?fbclid=IwAR19A0MJYkoo4FtuYDXcHZNc1oZqQyaApFk-Ek2EFOrAXhlcp4K756PKT-s
Here are areas of focus:
Are systemic issues with cost, supply, etc when it comes to housing - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-
availability-and-affordability-canada-may-2019 or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/social-housing-afffordability-of-
housing-canada
Alternatives - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/~1734941#_gus&_gucid=&_gup=twitter&_gsc=8IJdtLI
All levels of government have not come up with effective rural affairs strategy. Rural areas are underserved -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-rural-affairs-canada
Agenda 2030 is also an issue. Agenda 2030 is pushing for more urbanization - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/agenda-
2030-sustainable-development
Hanover - https://blackburnnews.com/midwestern-ontario/2019/07/16/hanover-asking-public-input-strategic-plan/
New strategy needed - https://www.homelesshub.ca/resource/housing-first-rural-canada-rural-homelessness-housing-first-
feasibility-across-22-canadian
13. Liberal Proposal Tax / Principal Residence
Source - https://www.greaterfool.ca/2019/09/13/the-house-tax-2/
Issues/Concerns
• Principal residency exemption is still available
• https://manningelliott.com/blog/principal-residence-exemption-deemed-
dispositions
• The government can review this information each year as part of
assessing how often people sell their property.
• Foreign ownership rules need to be revisited (needs to be balance of policy in terms
of taxing and rules of ownership -
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-30/australia-s-property-
prices-are-cooling-with-foreign-help
• Government needs to stop looking for quick fixes and start dealing with systemic
issues with housing
• Liberal are going after flippers as part of reviewing the affordability of housings –
Adam Vaughan should call the proposal tax flippers
• Liberals ponzi scheme to support mortgages is poorly constructed plan -
https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/homebuyers-incentive-1.5281833
• There are issues with state of a housing. Many houses are need of repairs
• https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/mortgages/the-real-cost-of-your-house/
• There are many issues with housing
• Supply and demand
• Costing
• Availability of land
• Vaughan proposal does not fix any of the above issues
14. Clean Energy Programs
1. Renovation costs are added to the cost of the home. The homeowner is going to re-coop those costs
2. Home-owners need to do their own assessment, i.e NPV of the investment / hydro.
3. Only people well off are going to do these repairs. https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/industry-news/53-of-
canadians-live-paycheque-to-paycheque/
We have a household debt issue as such last thing a homeowner needs are more debt or how does this fixed
affordability?
@MariekeWalsh @MercedesGlobal @CBCKatie @AbigailBimman
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2015-election-promise-justin-trudeau-and-liberals-i-will-make-things-more-
afforadble
Another poorly conceived plan by @JustinTrudeau
15. What’s next for government
There needs to be a review of urban planning as part of smarter urban planning -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/urban-planning-issues-facing-urban-planners-april-2019
There is a shortage of the skills trades. A better strategy is require to support the skill trades as well as other skills to
support real estate market - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-careers-skills-training-education-
canada-may-2019
Better market valuation that ties housing prices to wage growth, inflation and after tax income, etc. -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-wages-canada-march-2019
Better management of supply, i.e. brown sites, rural land, etc.
All levels of government need to come up with integrated solutions as part making housing more affordable.
Adopting new technology including 3-D Printing of housing
Clamping down on foreign ownership, especially money laundering, speculators, etc.