This document provides an analysis of the Canadian housing market in March 2019. It discusses several issues contributing to a lack of housing affordability, including stagnant wages, rising interest rates, and systemic problems in the real estate sector related to land availability, construction costs, and market valuation. While the federal government has introduced some programs to address affordability, critics argue these policies do not fix the underlying supply and demand challenges facing the housing market.

1. PAUL YOUNG, CPA, CGA
APRIL 15, 2019
Housing Market – Canada - March
2019

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3.  Housing affordability is becoming a big issue around the world
 There are systemic issues with real estate like available land, cost of building permits, cost of lumber, real
estate commission, bids and asks, mortgage rules, etc.
 Government around the world have never fixed the systemic issues with real estate
 NWO agenda is pushing for more urbanization
Description

4.  Housing Affordability around the world
 Average House Pricing for Canada
 Housing Affordability
 Household Spending - 2016
 Blog – Real Estate
Agenda

5. Source - http://demographia.com/dhi.pdf
Global Housing Affordability

6. Source - http://demographia.com/dhi.pdf
Global Housing Affordability / Metro Area

7.  https://globalnews.ca/news/5065835/federal-budget-2019-
homebuyers/?utm_medium=Twitter&utm_source=%40globalnews
 Did the Liberals not say during the 2015 election that @stephenharper was at fault for the household debt?
 New Budget proposal for mortgages will do nothing to fixed the systemic issues with housing.
 https://thebreaker.news/news/election-mortgage-scheme/
 There are systemic issues with real estate
 Supply (available land, cost of construction, real estate rates, etc)
 Lack of rural strategy
 Wage growth is stagnant
 Changes in tax policies (i.e. hikes to CPP and new carbon taxation)
 Rising interest rates
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/real-estate-canada-and-the-world-analysis-and-commentary
CMHC Mortgage / New Option

8. Housing Prices

9. Australia Real Estate
Source - https://smallcaps.com.au/australias-housing-market-wont-bounce-back-
quickly/

10. Source - http://demographia.com/dhi.pdf
Global Housing Affordability / Major Areas

11.  Toronto Star - Affordable housing advocates: Cities and tenant rights groups who wanted the government to increase
investment in affordable and social housing were also left empty-handed. -
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/02/27/winners-of-2018-federal-budget.html
 Municipalities - https://fcm.ca/home/media/news-and-commentary/2018/fcm-statement-on-federal-budget-2018.htm “that is
why FCM called on the government to use Budget 2018 to kick-start the Strategy by expediting already earmarked funds for
social housing repairs. After years of chronic underfunding for repairs, this move would have enabled housing providers to keep
at-risk homes safe and open for vulnerable families. But instead of protecting this vital part of Canada's social housing supply,
this budget delays funding for critical repairs that are ready to go ahead.
 BC - James said B.C. is in an affordable housing crisis and while she was glad to see the federal government’s plans to increase
loans for rental housing projects, the money is “back-end loaded,” so it won’t materialize for a number of years. She said she
wants to see the federal government step up with long-term funding and strategies.Thom Armstrong, the executive director of
the Co-operative Housing Federation of B.C., said while the federal government’s big housing announcement came in 2017
there were also additions of note in this budget, including $1.5 billion over five years for First Nations housing and the loan
increase.
 “Guelph’s mayor says, from a municipal standpoint, the 2018 federal budget is not what he was hoping for. Most notably, said
Mayor Cam Guthrie, is a lack of funding in the budget for dedicated to social housing. The federal government announced a
National Housing Strategy in November and many — including Guthrie — hoped the funding would begin to flow this year. The
Federation of Canadian Municipalities said in a news release that the federal government missed a key opportunity by not
including funding in the budget. “We were really lobbying hard to have some money dedicated to our social housing and the
plan that came out from the government, but there is really nothing there,” said Guthrie. ”Source -
https://www.guelphtoday.com/local-news/lack-of-funding-for-social-housing-in-federal-budget-disappointing-says-mayor-
850857
 “Half of the $4 billion that will be spent by 2028 will come from the provinces and territories with the other half coming from
the federal government. The government says the benefit will help support 300,000 households by
2028.”http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/housing-national-benefit-1.4413615
 Myths on the Liberals:
 The housing plan is back ended after the 2019 election
 Liberals plan is dependent on support by the provinces
 Liberals never mentioned the budget reflects Harper’s commitment on housing
 FMC has said the 2018-2019 budget does little to support affordable housing that is required now.
 Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/housing-social-and-affordable-housing-canada-90494557
Affordable Housing

12.  “'The reality is that too many
Canadians cannot afford to
buy a house,' the Liberal
leader Justin Trudeau said
CBC News [ Posted: Sep 09,
2015 9:10 AM ET -
September 9, 2015
”Source -
https://www.cbc.ca/news/polit
ics/canada-election-2015-
justin-trudeau-affordable-
housing-1.3220479
Liberal Party of Canada / Housing
“More eco-friendly homes which could
cost home owners up to $35,0000 in
costs”
Source -
http://www.enerquality.ca/2017/11/08/
tighter-building-codes-ottawas-next-
climate-target-cost-homeowners-
35000/
• The Harper government introduced its
ecoENERGY Retrofit program as part of
its massive stimulus package during the
recession, which was granted to more
than 250,000 homeowners in Canada.
The program provided homeowners up
to $5,000 to retrofit old insulation, doors,
windows and rooftops with more eco-
friendly alternatives. – Source -
http://www.enerquality.ca/2017/11/08/tighter-
building-codes-ottawas-next-climate-target-
cost-homeowners-35000/
• This was part of the 2009 Stimulus Package
pushed by both the NDP and Liberal Govt
Summary
• Housing is no more affordable under Trudeau -
https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-mortgage-
growth-plummets-to-the-lowest-levels-since-2001/
• Liberals policies would push up the cost of both
existing and new homes
• Any retro-fit policies only grow if there is incentives by
the govt.
• Short-lived reprieve. RBC’s main affordability measure
for Canada in the first quarter reversed the slight
improvement it saw late last year
http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/_assets-
custom/pdf/20180703-ha.pdf
Liberals Eco Home
CPC – Eco-Fit Programs

13. Canada Housing Market – March 2019

14. Source - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-08/a-fifth-of-china-s-homes-are-empty-that-s-50-
million-apartments?utm_campaign=socialflow-
organic&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social
China and Vacancies

15.  Housing market key area of the economy as such any swings either good or bad may impact GDP. Here are few issues in play
when it comes to the real estate market in Canada.
 Wages are under pressure – Wages have barely budged in 40 years - http://globalnews.ca/news/3531614/average-hourly-
wage-canada-stagnant/.
 Interest rate hike – Interest rates have gone up. The Bank of Canada has signaled that Canada maybe heading to higher
interest - http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/loonie-bank-of-canada-interest-rates-1.4191573 or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/wages-and-jobs-canada-august-2017-81251991
 IMF has highlighted there is significant risk to overpriced housing market for Canada - https://betterdwelling.com/imf-
canada-overvalued-homes-g7-fourth-globally/
 Economy is growing, but not at a rapid pace. Bulk of GDP growth is led by the housing market and commodities. GDP for the
past two years is still average 2.2% which is the same rate as the past 15+ years
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-gdp-election-2015-promise-increase-gdp-growth
 There are systemic issues with real estate like supply, market valuation, cost of building, availability of land, etc.
 Housing Affordability - http://globalnews.ca/news/3573571/ontario-housing-affordability-2018-election/ or
http://www.macleans.ca/politics/for-the-record-ralph-goodale-on-the-economy/ -
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/housing-affordability-itll-be-far-nastier-in-
toronto-and-vancouver-as-rates-rise-thistime/article36800993/ “Housing affordability has risen in the 3Q17”
Blog – Real Estate

16.  Lessons learned from Houston
 More and more people are moving from rural areas to cities for economic opportunities. The
problem with cities growing is the access to land. Many cities are surrounded by wetlands
and/or prime prairie land as such digging up those areas can cause issues in terms of rain fall
management as well as access to arable land for farming.
 Critics will also blame storms like Harvey on climate change. The planet does go through
phases, but it is not scientific proven those changes are man driven. We need to be very
careful that we do push to far with climate change agenda like Agenda 2030 -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-agenda-2030
 Many of us are touched by the stories coming out of Houston. I feel for the people of
Houston. I do think this maybe a time to reassess how we handle urban planning including the
management of land. Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/urban-planning-
future-of-cities
Urban Planning / Houston

17.  https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/expanded-national-housing-strategy-to-include-new-rent-subsidies/article37046894/?click=sf_globefb
 Liberals are again buying off voters with taxpayers’ money “The federal government will announce direct rent support for low-income Canadians in
addition to spending billions on traditional and new forms of social housing as part of the Wednesday release of its long-awaited national housing
strategy.
 The above does not fixed the issues with low income Canadians. In fact the liberals have hurt low income more with their tax policies -
http://torontosun.com/news/national/two-thirds-of-low-income-canadians-paying-more-tax-fraser-study. FYI – The so-called carbon tax being forced
down on to the provinces will also hurt the poor as housing costs will also go up. Australia removed the carbon tax as it was doing nothing for emission,
but forcing the costs up for its citizens - http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/australia-s-carbon-tax-repealed-after-2-years-1.2709642
 I will always be about solutions, but one-off policies like this from the Liberals do not fixed the issue with housing:
 Availability of land, taxes, building costs, hydro rates (https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/real-estate-canada-october-2017)
 People moving to cities (part of agenda 2030 )- https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/agenda-2030-new-world-order-canada-november-2017
 Employment market – Jobs are churning and part-time - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/job-market-canada-october-2017
 Canada plans to add more immigrants without any real strategy to align immigration with skills gap -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/government-policies-education-skills-development-canada-november-2017
 Liberals are not creating the condition for business investment, i.e. high taxes, regulatory burden to get projects off the ground, lack of money for
infrastructure, etc. - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/election-promise-goods-to-market-canada-october-2017 or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/building-permits-canada-september-2017
 It would be nice if people question the Liberals more than they do when it comes to their various policies.
Blog – Rent Subsidies

18. Rural areas underserved
@JustinTrudeau is pushing agenda 2030 at all cost - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/all-you-need-to-know-
about-agenda-2030-new-world-order. Trudeau does not care about rural areas as it neither ties to his voting base nor fits
the Agenda 2030.
Urban Issues - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/rural-municipalities-vs-urban-centers-ontario-february-2018 or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/rural-affairs-canadajanuary-2018
World-Wide Rural Areas “The rural exodus has been triggered in Europe since the early decades of the second half of the
twentieth century. Many people, especially the younger members of society, continue to migrate to the cities looking for
job opportunities, better felicities, and higher wages than in the countryside. Over the years, the exodus to the vibrant
urban centers together with the negative natural growth has led to an unstoppable dynamic of population decline in many
EU territories, which in addition generate substantial gaps between regions of the same country. As a result, Europe must
face today the scenario of demographic deserts threatening throughout the ‘old continent’.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/anagarciavaldivia/2018/12/22/the-challenge-of-rural-depopulation-facing-the-scenario-of-
demographic-deserts-in-the-eu/#714781061295

19.  “Canadian home prices rose in May as Toronto remained robust despite recent government efforts to cool the market, while prices in Vancouver picked back up to hit a
fresh peak, data showed on Wednesday.
 The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index, which measures changes for repeat sales of single-family homes, showed prices rose 2.2 per cent last month.
 Prices were higher in all 11 cities included in the index, led by a 3.6 per cent increase in Toronto and a 3.1 per cent rise in nearby Hamilton.”
 http://www.bnn.ca/toronto-housing-market-stays-hot-as-canadian-home-prices-rise-in-may-1.778739
 http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/06/20/household-debt-canada-pbo-report_n_17227374.html Analysis
 There is issue with land, especially in major cities. Government have brought in legislation to protect sensitive areas from development
http://www.mah.gov.on.ca/Page195.aspx
 British Colombia introduced foreign buyer tax to curb high price of houses - http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/cmhc-data-shows-
foreign-buyers-have-almost-disappeared-from-vancouver-market
 Bids and asks for property are getting ridiculous. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/kitchener-waterloo-2016-real-estate-bidding-wars-from-toronto-
buyers-1.3622610
 There are old industrial sites also known as brown sites. The cost of cleaning up brown sites is very expensive. http://warming.apps01.yorku.ca/library/wp-
content/uploads/2013/03/NRTEE-Cleaning-up-the-Past-Building-the-Future.pdf
 mortgage rules allow people to enter the market when they likely should not. The mortgage approval process should look at net income as well as look at the ability to
cover operational expenses for a house. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/160212/dq160212a-eng.htm
 Federal government can set mortgage amortization period as well as thresholds for CMHC insurance. However, the federal government cannot control areas, like land or
real estate commission as they are either municipal or provincial jurisdiction.
http://www.queensu.ca/iigr/sites/webpublish.queensu.ca.iigrwww/files/files/conf/Arch/03/03-2/Hulchanski.pdf
 PBO Office – Housing Affordability - http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/why-its-time-for-canadas-financial-industry-to-put-the-customer-
first/wcm/433faa13-8531-4a01-9a47-229ac1220a87
 Source: https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/housing-market-canada-may-2017 or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-affordability-housing-crisis-
june-2017
Blog – Housing – Systemic Issues