This presentations look at government debt for the province of Ontario. It will also provide sensitivity analysis in terms of reducing debt down to 26-27% of GDP. It would take the government about 7 years to bring the GDP down 26-27% range through nominal growth of 3.8% as well as running either balance budgets or surplus of $1B. I will caution the total debt of $300B will remain high which through GDP growth can be masked the government is doing better with its fiscal management cycle.

1. ONTARIO DEBT
BY: PAUL YOUNG, CPA, CGA

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Financial Solutions
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. ONTARIO DEBT
Source - http://www.ofina.on.ca/borrowing_debt/debt.htm

4. DEBT SERVICE BY YEAR - ONTARIO
Source - http://www.ofina.on.ca/borrowing_debt/debt.htm

5. DEBT TO GDP ANALYSIS
• http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/econ15-eng.htm or RBC http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/pdf/provincial-forecasts/provtbl.pdf or
http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/ontariobudgets/2017/budget2017.pdf or
“Your new government will restrain program spending to reduce Ontario's debt-
to-GDP ratio, while recommitting itself to eliminating the deficit by 2017-2018.
And after that, it will restrict overall spending increases to one per cent below GDP
growth until the province's debt-to-GDP ratio returns to the pre-recession level of
27 per cent.
https://news.ontario.ca/opo/en/2013/02/the-way-forward-1.html
Premier Wynne 2013

6. CREDIT RATING

7. BONDING RATING SYSTEM

8. SUMMARY
• Government are measure on debt to GDP
• Government overall debt does not reflect other obligations like
contracts or pension underfunding
• Reducing government debts usually means running surpluses
• Overall government debt in absolute dollar can be maxed by
growing GDP