Deciphering modi's climate change gambit

1. Deciphering Modi's Climate
Change Gambit
Three times now, Prime Minister Modi has aired his views on climate
change. With every passing time, his stance is becoming clearer and
stringent

3. Contd..
Prime Minister Modi raised the matter first at the United Nations last year, then
when US President Obama visited India, and a third time on Monday this week at
the state environment ministers' meeting. The first time the mention was
tangential, the second a bit more specific, and the third time he did not mince
words. Partly angered by the denial of nuclear fuel to India, Modi said developed
countries have no business to lecture India on climate change. On the other hand,
India has the ability to guide the rest of the world on how to tackle climate change.
It is not hard to see Modi's philosophy in tackling climate change. Modi did not
imply that India had the technology to combat climate change. Rather, he looked at
it from a lifestyle perspective. No one has a solution to the climate change problem
yet, and hence we need to make lifestyle adjustments. The traditional Indian way of
life, which maximises the use of resources, is one of the best ways of keeping
emissions low. This philosophy will be put to test soon, when India publishes its
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to the climate change
negotiations.

4. Contd..
India is the only major carbon dioxide emitter that has not announced an INDC so far. This
plan is supposed to announce what each country will volunteer to do after 2020, and will
be the basis on which negotiations will strike a deal this year. Aim of this climate
agreement is to keep the average global warming to below 2 degree centigrade from
preindustrial levels, an arbitrary limit that was not based on fully scientific arguments, but
which with some luck might be just enough to avoid dangerous climate change. “The
uncertainties will increase when the temperatures increase,“ says J Srinivasan, chairman of
the Divecha Centre for Climate Change at the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore. This
limit of 2 degree centigrade was written into the Cancun Agreement in 2010.
It is very hard to meet this goal unless global carbon dioxide emissions start falling very
quickly, a goal that seems impos sible now. However, all major polluters realise the need to
reduce emissions and are announcing their INDCs. The European Union was the first to
declare its INDC, and it hopes to achieve 40% reductions in emissions by 2030 compared to
1990 levels.It also proposed a long-term target of 60% reduction from 2010 levels by 2050,
which is a relatively aggressive target and within the range of keeping the global warm ing
to within 2 degree centigrade.

5. Contd..
Other major countries, however, fall short significantly.
Switzerland, a part of EU, has gone further: it has announced a 35% reduction from 1990
levels by 2025, 50% reduction by 2030 and 75-80% by 2050.
The US, driven by an activist president, submitted its INDC on March 31, the first informal
deadline. It plans to reduce emis sions by 26-28% over 2005 levels by 2025. China is yet to
submit, but has a bilateral agreement with the US, which envisages a peaking by 2030 or
earlier, and a commitment to a rapid switch to alternative forms of energy quickly .
It is not clear what India will announce, but environmental experts consider this a great
chance to prove that the country is serious. “The transition to renewable energy in India
will happen in any case,“ says Arunabha Ghosh, chief executive officer of the Council on
Energy , Environment and Water, a Delhi-based think tank.“But the INDCs will be a great
opportunity for us to articulate what we are doing.“ It will, of course, depend on how
thoroughly India does its research, how clearly it draws up a plan for a low-carbon growth
path and how ambitious that plan will be.

6. Contd..
India's plans for renewable energy are extremely aggressive. The country plans to have 100
gigawatts of solar energy capacity by 2022; it has a capacity of just 3.5 gigawatts of solar
power now. This would mean a growth rate no country has achieved in solar energy so far.
It would also mean setting up substantial manufacturing facilities quickly or facing a huge
import bill. Yet, the INDC will reveal India's real commitment. The first informal deadline
has already passed. There is one more deadline in June, and then a final deadline in
October. Will India be able produce a credible and thorough plan by then?
There is little indication about how India is working towards an INDC. Sources say that two
meeting have been held and some organisations have been given various tasks. How this
will end up in a plan is not clear. It is still not clear who will write it in the end. So India is
quite slow to react and several questions remain to be asked about India's objective. How
deeply researched will the final plan be? And how ambitious?
Analysts point out the dangers of an inadequate plan. “INDCs are where India must do its
homework well,“ says Rahul Tongia, fellow of Brookings India. “Too aggressive is likely to be
a top-down push, which may not materialise, while too easy may not be more than
business as usual improvements in efficiency and supply .“ A serious and well-articulated
INDC would provide considerable leeway in the climate change talks. It may also mean
avoiding being pushed to embarrassing commitments by other nations.

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