Delphi & ga method

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Delphi & ga method

  1. 1. Delphi and Gall Up Method Om Prakash Gupta
  2. 2. Introduction <ul><li>  Delphi method was developed by Project Rand during the 1950-1960s (1959) by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher. </li></ul><ul><li>The  Delphi method  is a systematic, interactive forecasting method </li></ul><ul><li>relies on a panel of experts </li></ul><ul><li>based on the principle that forecasts from experts are more accurate than those from individuals. </li></ul>
  3. 3. Contd….. <ul><li>Gall up method: </li></ul><ul><li>Surveys of public opinion as conducted by George Gallup </li></ul><ul><li>  A quantitative method of polling public opinion. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Delphi defined….. <ul><li>An “organized method” for collecting views and information pertaining to a specific area; </li></ul><ul><li>A method that allows dialogue between geographically separated experts while serving an effective means for learning; </li></ul><ul><li>Gathering a group of experts to forecast events and assess complex issues; </li></ul><ul><li>Collective human intelligence; </li></ul><ul><li>A process of exploring… assessing… and evaluating. </li></ul>
  5. 5. Delphi… why use it? <ul><li>Automotive Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Design new curriculum in social work, nursing, and medical education; </li></ul><ul><li>Metal fabrication; </li></ul><ul><li>Literacy campaigns; </li></ul><ul><li>Land use policies; </li></ul><ul><li>Future roles & organizational arrangements of hospitals and other health services; </li></ul><ul><li>Recreation & Park Administration </li></ul><ul><li>To predict the impact of socio-economic developments on future school systems, training, and research needs . </li></ul>
  6. 6. Delphi Method <ul><li>Instead of an individual, a panel of people with diverse backgrounds can develop a more reliable forecast. </li></ul><ul><li>When more people participate, several opinions emerge. </li></ul><ul><li>Manager has to bring the group to a consensus. </li></ul>
  7. 7. Procedure <ul><li>Experts, whose opinions are to be sought, are identified from a variety of knowledgeable people with diversified backgrounds. </li></ul>
  8. 8. <ul><li>Their consent for participation is sought and obtained. </li></ul><ul><li>A written questionnaire is sent to each one of them with a request to respond. </li></ul>
  9. 9. <ul><li>The responses are brought together, summarized and redistributed along with some new questions and their responses or opinions are sought again. </li></ul>
  10. 10. <ul><li>Members who differ from majority opinion are requested to reconsider their opinion. </li></ul><ul><li>They are requested to write a rationale, if they feel that their opinion is still appropriate. </li></ul>
  11. 11. <ul><li>Responses are summarized again to get refined forecasts. </li></ul><ul><li>They are mailed again to the same experts with some more new questions and a similar request. </li></ul><ul><li>Cycle is repeated till a narrow enough consensus is obtained. </li></ul>
  12. 12. <ul><li>Generally it takes 4 rounds to yield satisfactory results. </li></ul><ul><li>10. Final results are then distributed to all participants. </li></ul>
  13. 13. Delphi..when is it appropriate? <ul><li>In situations where there is no clear-cut resolution of a given policy issue; </li></ul><ul><li>When time & cost constraints make frequent face-to-face meetings difficult to arrange. </li></ul><ul><li>When the heterogeneity of the participants must be preserved and anonymity assured. </li></ul>What kind of group communication process is desirable in order to explore the problem at hand? Who are the people with expertise on the problem & where are they located?
  14. 17. Delphi… +’s <ul><li>Opportunities for large number of people to participate; </li></ul><ul><li>Focus is on “ideas” rather than “individuals”; </li></ul><ul><li>Anonymity for participants which make contributions of ideas a safe activity; </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunities for participants to reconsider their opinions; </li></ul><ul><li>Allows for identification of priorities. </li></ul>
  15. 18. Delphi … -’s <ul><li>Large amount of time to conduct several rounds; </li></ul><ul><li>The complexity of data analysis; </li></ul><ul><li>The difficulty of maintaining participant enthusiasm throughout process; </li></ul><ul><li>The problem of keeping statements value free and clearly defined; </li></ul><ul><li>Self reporting data is subject to respondent’s biases and memories; </li></ul><ul><li>The bandwagon effect of a majority opinion; </li></ul><ul><li>The power of persuasion or prestigious individuals to shape group opinion; </li></ul><ul><li>The vulnerability of group dynamics to manipulation; </li></ul><ul><li>The unwillingness of individuals to abandon publicly stated positions. </li></ul>
  16. 19. Key to Success <ul><li>Talent of the coordinator. </li></ul><ul><li>Unbiased ness of the coordinator. </li></ul>
  17. 20. Inherent Danger <ul><li>Members may feel pressurized to yield to a socially dominant individual. </li></ul><ul><li>Individuals may misinterpret the Delphi exercise to be a policy “decision” tool rather than a policy “analysis” tool; </li></ul><ul><li>Once a Delphi exercise has started there is no way to guarantee or control for a specific pattern of response; </li></ul><ul><li>The Delphi has been used as a political tool rather than an analytical tool. </li></ul>
  18. 21. Preventive Measure Membership Details Not Revealed.
  19. 22. <ul><li>Gall up method </li></ul>
  20. 23. The Sampling Issue Selecting a Random Sample The Number Of Interviews, Or Sample Size, Required The Interview Itself The Questions Conducting the Interview Interpreting the Results GALL UP POLL
  21. 26. Conclusion:- <ul><li>Delphi method: </li></ul><ul><li>Qualitative method. </li></ul><ul><li>Experts are involved. </li></ul><ul><li>Gall up method: </li></ul><ul><li>Quantitative method. </li></ul><ul><li>Large number of people are involved. </li></ul>
  22. 27. OM PRAKASH GUPTA POST GRADUATE DIPLOMA IN MANAGEMENT (AGRICULTURE)2010-12 NATIONAL ACADEMY OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH MANAGEMENT(ICAR) EMAIL:- OPSTAR123@GMAIL.COM CONTACT NO. :- +917893216298 HYDERABAD-500407

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