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INTRODUCTION
DELPHI METHOD
• The Delphi Method seeks to achieve a consensus among
group members through a series of questionnaires.
• The series of questionnaires sent either by mail or via
computerized systems, to a pre-selected group of
experts.
• Nobody ‘looses face’ because the questionnaires are
answered anonymously and individually by each member
of the group.
• The answers are summarized and sent back to the group
members along with the next questionnaire.
• This process is repeated until a group consensus is reached.
This usually only takes two iterations, but can sometimes takes
as many as six rounds before a consensus is reached
DELPHI METHOD IS MOST SUITABLE
• The Delphi method is especially useful for futuristic
Projects (long-range forecasting 20-30 years), as expert
opinions are the only source of information available.
Ex.Master plan
• Top secret and complex military projects
• When time & cost constraints make frequent face-to-face
meetings difficult to arrange.
• When the heterogeneity of the participants must be
preserved and anonymity assured.
• In situations where there is no clear-cut resolution of a
given policy issue
The delphi method final ppt
The delphi method final ppt
DELPHI POSITIVE
• Anonymity can be guaranteed, anonymity for participants
make contributions of ideas a safe activity
• Conducted in writing and does not require face-to-face
meetings
• responses can be made at the convenience of the
participant
• Opportunities for large number of experts to participate
• Opportunities for participants to reconsider their opinions
• Gives access to groups of widely dispersed experts
Continued
• Time for reflection, improving the strength of opinion.
• Participants have an equal say
• Greater acceptance of Delphi results than other consensus
methods.
• Learning and motivating experience for participants.
• Highly cost-effective, when conducted by experts
• Relatively free of social pressure, personality influence, and
individual dominance and is, therefore, conducive to independent
thinking and gradual formulation of reliable judgments or
forecasting of results
DELPHI NEGATIV’S
• Large amount of time to conduct several rounds
• The complexity of data analysis
• The difficulty of maintaining participant enthusiasm
throughout process
• Potential of Low Response Rates Due to the multiple
feedback processes
• The power of persuasion or prestigious individuals to
shape group opinion
• The vulnerability of group dynamics to manipulation
• Manipulation, the responses can be altered by the
monitors in the hope of moving the next round
responses in a desired direction. Care needed in
this regard
• The bandwagon effect of a majority opinion
• Ambiguity regarding panel size and consensus
levels required
APPLICABLE FOR
• Water supply
• Transport
• Land value
• Proximity to facilities
TRADE OFF GAME
• A trade-off (or tradeoff) is a situation that
involves losing one quality or aspect of
something in return for gaining another quality or
aspect.
• if one thing increases, some other thing must
decrease
• For example:
BRTS:20C/Km
MRTS:50C/Km
SUBURBAN:150C/Km
METRO:300C/Km
Benefits satisfied and costly
SIMULATION MODEL
Simulation means reproduction
Reproducing the spatial pattern
Creating and analyzing a digital prototype of a physical
model
To predicts its performance in the real world.
The delphi method final ppt

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The delphi method final ppt

  • 2. DELPHI METHOD • The Delphi Method seeks to achieve a consensus among group members through a series of questionnaires. • The series of questionnaires sent either by mail or via computerized systems, to a pre-selected group of experts. • Nobody ‘looses face’ because the questionnaires are answered anonymously and individually by each member of the group. • The answers are summarized and sent back to the group members along with the next questionnaire.
  • 3. • This process is repeated until a group consensus is reached. This usually only takes two iterations, but can sometimes takes as many as six rounds before a consensus is reached
  • 4. DELPHI METHOD IS MOST SUITABLE • The Delphi method is especially useful for futuristic Projects (long-range forecasting 20-30 years), as expert opinions are the only source of information available. Ex.Master plan • Top secret and complex military projects • When time & cost constraints make frequent face-to-face meetings difficult to arrange. • When the heterogeneity of the participants must be preserved and anonymity assured. • In situations where there is no clear-cut resolution of a given policy issue
  • 7. DELPHI POSITIVE • Anonymity can be guaranteed, anonymity for participants make contributions of ideas a safe activity • Conducted in writing and does not require face-to-face meetings • responses can be made at the convenience of the participant • Opportunities for large number of experts to participate • Opportunities for participants to reconsider their opinions • Gives access to groups of widely dispersed experts Continued
  • 8. • Time for reflection, improving the strength of opinion. • Participants have an equal say • Greater acceptance of Delphi results than other consensus methods. • Learning and motivating experience for participants. • Highly cost-effective, when conducted by experts • Relatively free of social pressure, personality influence, and individual dominance and is, therefore, conducive to independent thinking and gradual formulation of reliable judgments or forecasting of results
  • 9. DELPHI NEGATIV’S • Large amount of time to conduct several rounds • The complexity of data analysis • The difficulty of maintaining participant enthusiasm throughout process • Potential of Low Response Rates Due to the multiple feedback processes • The power of persuasion or prestigious individuals to shape group opinion • The vulnerability of group dynamics to manipulation
  • 10. • Manipulation, the responses can be altered by the monitors in the hope of moving the next round responses in a desired direction. Care needed in this regard • The bandwagon effect of a majority opinion • Ambiguity regarding panel size and consensus levels required
  • 11. APPLICABLE FOR • Water supply • Transport • Land value • Proximity to facilities
  • 12. TRADE OFF GAME • A trade-off (or tradeoff) is a situation that involves losing one quality or aspect of something in return for gaining another quality or aspect. • if one thing increases, some other thing must decrease
  • 14. SIMULATION MODEL Simulation means reproduction Reproducing the spatial pattern Creating and analyzing a digital prototype of a physical model To predicts its performance in the real world.