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Rockdale library august 2013.9 ex

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The trick always is to get people to realise that they need to change and that it is not necessarily threatening. This presentation is similar to others I have used in creating new Scenarios for Libraries in all sectors. This is an essential element of change management. The future of libraries and publishing is fundamental to re-thinking and the management of risk.

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Rockdale library august 2013.9 ex

  1. 1. Information Exponentials and Partners 1
  2. 2. A view from my home……………. ...my flooded home 3
  3. 3. After Friday…. • Outcomes from the Thursday and Friday Workshops • Return to the Community for final input • Select Group to Finalise the Preferred Library Scenario • Strategic Planning or the Allocation of Resources to follow 4
  4. 4. 5
  5. 5. Aims of this Workshop
  6. 6. Objectives for this session • To understand the Rockdale Public Library User and their information need • To discuss the available multiple futures • To understand what we have achieved, what we want to achieve and that which we have not yet begun to think of • To begin to understand what Scenario Planning is as a tool for the modern futureorientated library 7
  7. 7. ‘Wei Ji’ CRISIS Danger and Opportunity 8
  8. 8. Are we on the same page?? 10
  9. 9. 11
  10. 10. These three points articulated by Rick Anderson 12
  11. 11. What can you see? 13
  12. 12. 14
  13. 13. What can you see? 15
  14. 14. “People want what they want when they want it. They don’t want something else, they don’t want less than they want, and they certainly don’t want it at some other time.” Henry Forsha
  15. 15. Staff view of what is done well Collections Physical Collections Up to date collections New release novels Local History research Children’s Collections Good Collections Collection Development Wide and varied Collections Service Modern ‘p’ collection High calibre Service In-house cataloguing Staff skills are well utilised Frontline Customer service Continuous CALD Services Staff skills are well improvements Engage with customers at utilised Supportive teams their level Friendlier staff Experienced staff Early literacy services Programs Various programs, children’s, Local history, CALD Adult Story time Children’s activities Promote technological change to special need groups 17
  16. 16. Staff view of what should be done Collections More Faster computers Demise of p newspapers Use of e books E-resources collection User generated content E books Children’s Collections Downloadable ebooks Wide and varied Collections Programs E Resources Cultural varied Programs Computer activities at Branches Frontline Customer service Continuous CALD Services Research community improvements More varied programs needs More early literacy Adult programs services More CALD services Up to date technology Further Technology Digital More technologies computers Availability of i equipment Wi Fi Access ‘disruptions Computer ’ access Remote access to ‘I’ 18
  17. 17. Staff view of what should be done 2 Collaboration Liaise with other Population changes Children’s Collections departments Work with other Council Libraries New release novels Engagement with customers Collections distributions Internet power Collaboration Facilities More study room Catalogue in community languages CALD Services Lack of community Meeting rooms!!! space Appropriate space Services Even more Helpful services Tutoring Homework IT Training New emerging assistance technologies Promote databases More Promotion / Marketing Continuous improvements More Shelving /Furnitur e Areas for study/ PCs so on Modern Study spaces Helping unemployed Web site marketing 19
  18. 18. Steve O'Connor Leadership Future Libraries Wuhan University November, 2011 20
  19. 19. What is the Library …..? • What is the Library doing well? • What does it need to do better?? • THREE OF EACH please
  20. 20. Changing the mind-set • Scenario Planning as a process, but not a solution • Scenarios are a form of engagement in the solution • Plan from the Future rather than in the present 22
  21. 21. 23
  22. 22. What are the influences? • What is the perception? • Is the current view of the ‘Library’ tired or … expected? • Are there too many clichés or ideas on library and content futures not thought through? • Is the environment requiring evidence-based solutions? 24
  23. 23. The cool eye of the Future • ‘Future’ is a very real force in our lives • We do not know what the future holds • We use the term very loosely and vaguely • Can be intimidated by the future, or the absence of certainty • Paths to certainty are crucial • The Futures is deep in the EYE… 25
  24. 24. 26
  25. 25. 27
  26. 26. The Rear vision view…. • We can only judge how far we have come by looking backwards • We can only understand our path to the future with a ‘rear vision mirror’ Photo credit: David Hobbs 28
  27. 27. The Future Is Not Linear…. ALTERNATIVE FUTURES DECISION POINTS SCENARIO PATH OPTIONS NOW 29
  28. 28. 30
  29. 29. Extinction Summary 2013 2018 Libraries 2020 Copyright 2025 Desktop Computers Getting Lost Blackberries Video rental stores Blogging 31
  30. 30. Disrupted models • IBM Mainframe disrupted by Personal Computer • Diaries… Paper disrupted by PDA • Diaries, Contacts disrupted by PDA, then Mobile phone • Nokia mobile phone disrupted by multifunctioned iPhone, HTA etc • Kodak industries disrupted by Digital technologies Steve O'Connor Leadership Future Libraries Wuhan University November, 2011 32
  31. 31. Five Principles of Disruption 1. Companies depend on customers and investors for resources *Do n 2. Small markets do not solve growth needs of large companies 3. Markets that do not exist cannot be analysed *Market r e s e a r c h a n
  32. 32. Five Principles …….. 4. Organisation’s capabilities define its disabilities *Capability in processes and values…work against organisation implementing change *Technology improvement provides greater performance than market can absorb 5. Technology supply may not equal market demand
  33. 33. Has the Library model been disrupted? 35
  34. 34. EXERCISE • Identify examples of potential disruptions: – Could affect our general lives – Could affect our new future library: • Should be within 3 year time-frame
  35. 35. • What does the general populace say about Libraries, their present and future purpose? • What do the those responsible for the library say? – Funder? – Governing body such as a Council? – Connections to other cultural bodies? 37
  36. 36. 38
  37. 37. Which Lane is your Library wanting to be in? 39
  38. 38. Build a picture • What is the imaginative story we want to tell folk? • This is a story of why we need a new or revitalised Library • We will do the WHAT (i.e. design and features ) in the next session 40
  39. 39. What kinds of data? • What kinds of data do we have? • What kinds of data explain the future needs?? 41
  40. 40. More about ….. • Insiders and Outsiders • Over time most of us become Insiders as we master our discipline • InnoCentive illustrates the power of Outsiders • We need to be Outsiders • Outsiders do not need to see the detailed environment but can see the whole 42
  41. 41. 43
  42. 42. Recap • Societal trends affecting Libraries – Disrupted library models • Kind of Library? – Impact of digital? – Partners? • Data? – What is it telling you? • Collections? 44
  43. 43. Choices • Many decision points • Better to choose rather than having the future happen to you • So how is it best to inform the decision points? • Engagement in the need equation as well as the choices? • What are the best choices which you have recognised in your own career? • It is your choice 45
  44. 44. EXERCISE • Imagine what your library was like in 2002, 2007? • What were some of the characteristics of the organisation then? • What are the three main forces the Library was doing well?
  45. 45. “ You can’t stop change from coming… you can only usher it in and work out the terms. If you are smart and a little lucky, you can make it your friend” Barrack Obama Time Nov 17, 2008: 25 47
  46. 46. Steve O'Connor Leadership Future Libraries Wuhan University November, 2011 48
  47. 47. Path tunnel gets narrower • As we look forwards the definition in the distance becomes very indistinct • The wider environment in the distance; the spaces to each side cannot be seen • It is only as we approach that point, do we gain greater clarity • So ‘seeing’ the future is difficult and predictability is not easily found 49
  48. 48. What are Scenarios? • The Long View • Outside-in thinking • Multiple Perspectives • Allow ourselves time to come to a new view, multiple views 50
  49. 49. What is Scenario Planning? • Process allows options to remain ‘in consideration’ • Allowing all ideas to come to the fore • Recognising that we do not have one future, but many • How many scenarios? 51
  50. 50. Imagination and Stories • Strategic Planning is an important process but effectively it concerns the allocation of resources • Scenario Planning seeks to use the imagination to conjure up new , different options • Imagination needs to be strengthened so that improbable ideas, impractical ideas are not dismissed • Imagination liberates us from past thinking 52
  51. 51. The-Library-of-the-Future-Is-web (CC) by Calgary New Central Library 53
  52. 52. ALA 2011 Confronting the Future 54
  53. 53. http://www.futurelibraries.info/content/page/scenarios-2050-0 55
  54. 54. Creativity 56
  55. 55. Consider….. “Creativity is the residue of time wasted” Albert Einstein “Always carry a light globe” Bob Dylan 57
  56. 56. Milton Glaser, iconic New York designer 58
  57. 57. More about ….. • Insiders and Outsiders • Over time most of us become Insiders as we master our discipline • InnoCentive illustrates the power of Outsiders • We need to be Outsiders • Outsiders do not need to see the detailed environment but can see the whole 59
  58. 58. 60
  59. 59. One sphere to another.. • Right Brain Hemisphere allows us to see the whole • It enables us to find connections between seemingly unconnected things • The Forest ( Right) and the trees (Left) • Prefrontal cortex helps focus attention on the task at hand • Understanding some brain research assists in understanding the the creative process • Blue helps create; Red spells Danger: Yellow is uncomfortable 61
  60. 60. 62
  61. 61. Research Your Different Scenarios Community Preferred Library Future Stories 63
  62. 62. EXERCISE • We imagined what your library was like in 2003, 2008? • How have the characteristics of the organisation changed since then? • What are the forces will you have to deal with in the next three years?
  63. 63. Publishers • Digital 1990+ • Elsevier( 1300 titles) and major publishers done retrospective collections • Taken over archiving role .. Implications?? • Changing copyright / licensing /ownership arrangements
  64. 64. 66
  65. 65. Professional Publishing and Information Universe 7,982 Reed Elsevier Thomson 6,850 6,143 Pearson VNU 4,275 McGraw-Hill 4,229 Reuters 4,220 3,555 Wolters Kluwer 1,730 Scholastic 1,377 Dow Jones 1,119 UBM Springer 880 (a) John Wiley Taylor & Francis Total 2002 Sales (€ in m) 649 293 Note: $/€ FX rate of 1.1322, £/€ FX rate of 0.7090 (a) Combined KAP/Springer entity. STM Legal & Tax Financial B2B Education Media/Marketing Other
  66. 66. Some Facts • • • • Book Publishing in 1963 worth US$1.68 billion In 2008 it was worth US$ 40.3 billion Science publishing US$ 9.4 billion in 2011 Science published 1.8 million English articles at US$5,000 per article in 2011 • Estimated that OA average cost of US$660 per article 68
  67. 67. Cell Reports costs US$5,000 per article whereas Public Library of Science PLoS, costs US$1,350 Average cost per article US$3,500 to US$4,000 PeerJ and BioMed Central are other OA Journals Industry profit margins are 20% - 30%. 69
  68. 68. Steve O'Connor Leadership Future Libraries Wuhan University November, 2011 70
  69. 69. A Truly Global Industry Reed Elsevier Wolters Kluwer 5% 8% 28% 46% 49% 64% Pearson VNU 8% 11% 19% 36% 73% % of Revenues Originating from: (a) Includes Canada. US Europe 53%(a) Rest of the World
  70. 70. Year 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 90 1979 100 1978 1977 1976 1975 % held Published Output Held Percentage of Australian holdings of English language monographs published overseas 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  71. 71. Long Tail Period Change in archival role…… 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 Use Life Cycle
  72. 72. 74
  73. 73. 75
  74. 74. MOOC
  75. 75. 77
  76. 76. 78
  77. 77. 79
  78. 78. James Canton http://www.globalfuturist.com 80
  79. 79. What is happening to Content? • Narrowing of the ownership of major publishing houses • Move to sell directly to user and ignoring site licenses • Move to digital delivery – E-books with many different models; limiting access and retention – Will e-books be broken down into smaller digital objects? – E-books and mobile delivery – Learning objects and the development of MOOC’s • Will Open Access and Institutional Repositories thrive? 81
  80. 80. Growth of Digital….. Information Delivered to Library’s Clients 100% 80% 60% Web 40% Digital 20% Print 0% 1 2 3 Period 4 5
  81. 81. Growth of Digital…. Information Delivered to Library’s Clients 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Web 40% 30% Digital 20% 10% Print 0% 1 2 3 Year 4 5
  82. 82. EXERCISE • What is your prediction of the content mix NOW and in 3 years time? NOW • Web • Digital • Print % % % 3 YEARS % % %
  83. 83. Growth of Digital…. Information Delivered to Library’s Clients 100% 90% 80% 70% Web 60% 50% Digital 40% 30% Print 20% 10% 0% 1 2 3 4 5
  84. 84. Increased Relevance “Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available. Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population. The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for these services. All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users – community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “ 87
  85. 85. Increased Relevance “Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available. Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population. The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for these services. All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users – community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “ 88
  86. 86. Increased Relevance “Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available. Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population. The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for these services. All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users – community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “ 89
  87. 87. Increased Relevance “Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available. Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population. The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for these services. All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users – community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “ 90
  88. 88. Scenarios can explore issues simply “ ……..The skill set needed by library staff is changing rapidly although there is no funding for staff development or retooling of staff skills. With the emphasis on virtual services, the library is depending more on volunteers to supplement the limited staff who don’t have the requisite technical expertise. An enthusiastic group of Generation Y and younger users is helping the library in its move into the virtual arena by contributing to tagging and other web 2.0 efforts. 91
  89. 89. What is ‘Inevitability’? • There is risk in disruption • What is a risk? • Risk is not Failure • What is the level of probability of failure? • Engagement with Risk in a disrupted environment is a crucial strategy “If you want to succeed, double your failure rate” Thomas J Watson 92
  90. 90. 93
  91. 91. Development of scenarios
  92. 92. STRONG WITHIN PARADIGM STRATEGIES PARADIGM CHALLENGING STRATEGIES MINDLESS ACTION FUTURES TRAP STRATEGIC THINKING WEAK STRONG WEAK FUTURE FOCUS
  93. 93. Research Your Different Scenarios Community Preferred Library Future Stories 96
  94. 94. 97
  95. 95. Publishing cycle USER as AUTHOR USER as READER PUBLISHER LIBRARIAN as FUNDER
  96. 96. Publishing cycle USER as AUTHOR Intellectual Property Rights USER as READER PUBLISHER LIBRARIAN as FUNDER
  97. 97. Publishing cycle USER as AUTHOR Intellectual Property Rights USER as READER PUBLISHER $$$ LIBRARIAN as FUNDER
  98. 98. Publishing cycle USER as AUTHOR Intellectual Property Rights IMPACT OF OPEN ACCESS USER as READER PUBLISHER $$$ LIBRARIAN as FUNDER as PUBLISHER
  99. 99. At the Crossroads… 102
  100. 100. 103
  101. 101. 104
  102. 102. 105
  103. 103. OUTSOURCING COMPLETE NONE NOW 3 YEARS COMPLETE AUTO INTER-LOCKING Auto-Inter Lending NONE
  104. 104. OUTSOURCING THE ANYWHERE LIBRARY COMPLETE NONE NOW 3 YEARS COMPLETE AUTO INTER-LOCKING Auto-Inter Lending NONE
  105. 105. THE ANYWHERE LIBRARY OUTSOURCING COMPLETE NONE NOW 3 YEARS COMPLETE AUTO INTER-LOCKING Auto-Inter Lending NONE NOT ENOUGH TO GO AROUND
  106. 106. 109
  107. 107. What have we learnt ? • The Future isn’t what it used to be • The Future can be what you want it to be • Techniques for developing Business Scenarios – Funding models – Service capability – Skill development ……and planning
  108. 108. Think in terms of… • Scenarios create new stories • What contrasting forces will lead to a break through? – Relevance /irrelevance – New Service/ No service – New approach/ same-old-same old – More space/ less space – More budget/less budget • Description of each created quadrant? 111
  109. 109. Worse case scenarios • If we are looking for better, what could be worse, far worse? • Unforeseen changes in support/regulation/parent organisation? • Unforeseen publisher vendor mergers or new technologies? • Elections? • Financial disasters? • Earthquakes? 112
  110. 110. How many futures? • There are any number of Futures • Incremental approach – Alternative 1 – Official Future – Alternative 2 • Scaled Approach – Conservative – Modest – Challenging • A Preferred Scenario • Preferred Scenario creates the drive for the Strategic Planning 113
  111. 111. Increased Relevance “Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available. Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population. The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for these services. All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users – community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “ 114
  112. 112. Plan not for tomorrow • What should the future look like in the 2017? • Start in 2013 and then work toward it • Spend time getting accepted your Preferred Library Scenario 115
  113. 113. Avoid Group Thinking • • • • Conformity to norm thinking will limit opportunities Do not just accept stories about library Open up and always encourage different thinking Think about what is being proposed and encourage an environment of thoughtful, questioning dissent • Research outside this discipline 117
  114. 114. Do not let the Future happen to you. 118
  115. 115. Exercise • Create three Scenarios • Give each of them an imaginative NAME • DESCRIBE each of them in 6 or 7 Dot points 119
  116. 116. Three Scenarios 120
  117. 117. Style of Story 121
  118. 118. The Learning Hub “ The Library in 2011 continues to be located on a land-locked campus, in the middle of one of the most densely populated parts of the world, but is now everywhere else at the same time. Its strong reputation for being busy is still true but it has successfully fused the information and study worlds; fused the physical and digital into one; fused locally produced and the commercially produced information for the benefit of the community. This is a seamless world of quality information from the web, large sets of digital books and journals as well as great collections of books. The information is now even more digital and wherever possible print materials are delivered digitally. This is what is now called the LEARNING HUB a more comfortable and dynamic learning environment . The Library has focused its services more on outreach than previously. In reaching out it is both visiting the community wherever it is and also bringing more of that same community to the re-vitalised Library building. In this future, the traditional functions of the Library have been redefined and re-focused to facilitate the growth of knowledge.” 122
  119. 119. Emerging Trends in the Broader Environment
  120. 120. Exercise • Create three Scenarios • Give each of them an imaginative NAME • DESCRIBE each of them in 6 or 7 Dot points 124
  121. 121. Possibilities abound… …those owned by our Clients will always be richer 125
  122. 122. 126
  123. 123. 127
  124. 124. 128
  125. 125. 129

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