Faisal Basri, Economic Outlook 2018-2019: "Climbing Amid Global Turmoil" > The Fed akan terus menaikkan suku bunga acuan sekali lagi tahun ini dan sekitar 3X tahun depan > BI pun sudah menaikkan 7-day Repo Rate 5X pada era Gubernur BI yang baru > LDR merangkak naik mendekati 100%, likuiditas perbankan semakin ketat > Kenaikan utang pemerintah menyebabkan crowding-out effect > Laju Inflasi akan lebih tinggi tahun depan karena penyesuaian harga BBM dan tarif listrik.

1. Theguardian.com
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2018-19:
CLIMBING AMID GLOBAL TURMOIL
Faisal Basri
28 November 2018
cimlogic.co.uk thejakartapost.com
medium.com

2. Tekanan bertubi-tubi kenaikan suku bunga
▪ The Fed akan terus menaikkan suku bunga acuan:
sekali lagi tahun ini, dan sekitar 3 kali tahun depan
▪ BI pun sudah menaikkan 7-day Repo Rate 5 kali
pada era Gubernur BI yang baru.
▪ LDR merangkak naik mendekati 100 persen,
likuiditas perbankan semakin ketat.
▪ Kenaikan utang pemerintah menyebabkan
crowding-out effect
▪ Laju inflasi akan lebih tinggi tahun depan karena
penyesuaian harga BBM dan tarif listrik

3. Laju inflasi cenderung naik cukup signifikan
▪ Dari sekitar 3 persen tahun ini ke sekitar 5 persen
tahun depan
▪ Jika pasangan No.1 yang menang, penyesuaian tarif
listrik dan harga BBM lebih cepat, sekitar Mei-Juni:
berbenah sebelum pelantikan presiden.
▪ Jika pasangan no.2 yang menang, penyesuaian
dilakukan akhir tahun setelah pelantikan

4. The inflation rate in 2018 is relatively low
due to price control
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
18,4
12,1
8,8
8,4
7,3
4,5 4,4
3,2
3,5
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Jan'03
4
7
10
Jan'04
4
7
10
Jan'05
4
7
10
Jan'06
4
7
10
Jan'07
4
7
10
Jan'08
4
7
10
Jan'09
4
7
10
Jan'10
4
7
10
Jan'11
4
7
10
Jan'12
4
7
10
Jan'13
4
7
10
Jan'14
4
7
10
Jan'15
4
7
10
Jan'16
4
7
10
Jan'17
4
7
10
Jan'18
4
7
10
BI target 2018: 3.5% ± 1%
Calender year 2018 = 2.22%
October 2018 (yoy) = 3.16%
C l o s i n g t h e g a p I n d o n e s i a E c o n o m i c Q u a r t e r l y
Appendix Figure 13: Monthly breakdown of CPI
(contribution to growth yoy, percentage points)
Appendix Figure 14: Inflation comparison across countries
(growth yoy, percent)
Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; CEIC; World Bank staff calculations
Note: *August 2017 data; others July.
Appendix Figure 15: Domestic and international rice
prices
(wholesale price, in IDR per kg)
Appendix Figure 16: Poverty and unemployment rate
(percent)
Source: Cipinang wholesale rice market; FAO
Note: “5% broken” refers to the quality of milled rice. 5 percent
being the proportion of grains broken during the processing stage.
Source: BPS
Note: Poverty line based on national poverty line
Appendix Figure 17: Regional equity indices
(daily index, September 1, 2015=100)
Appendix Figure 18: Selected currencies against USD
(monthly index, August 2015=100)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17
Processed Food Food
Clothing Transportation
Health Education
Housing CPI
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Thailand *
Japan
Singapore
China *
Korea
USA *
Philippines
Malaysia
India *
Indonesia*
3,500
5,000
6,500
8,000
9,500
11,000
Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17
Domestic rice, IR64-II
Vietnamese rice 5% broken
4
8
12
16
20
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Poverty rate
Unemployment rate
Inflation comparison across
countries (growth, yoy, %)
* August 2017 data, others July.
Source: World Bank.

5. Nilai tukar rupiah
▪ Dua minggu terakhir rupiah menguat, padahal CAD
meningkat
▪ CAD mecerminkan kondisi sektor riil (sektor
produksi barang dan jasa), sedangkan nilai tukar
rupiah lebih merupakan cerminan feomena
moneter
▪ Kebijakan moneter merespon untuk jangka pendek,
sedangkan CAD mecerminkan persoalan structural
yang tidak bisa diselesaikan dalam jangka pendek
▪ Oleh karena itu, dalam jangka menengah (tahun
depan), rupiah akan cenderung melemah

6. IDR slid to a two-decade low since the 1998 Asian
financial crisis, recovered in the last 2 weeks
Source: Bank Indonesia
10.800
(08/30/2005)
12.400
(11/24-26/2008)
8.440
(08/02/2011)
14.728
(09/29/2015)
7.500
8.500
9.500
10.500
11.500
12.500
13.500
14.500
15.500
04/07/04
30-Aug
05-Jan
13-May
14-Sep
19-Jan
24-May
27-Sep
06-Feb
12-Jun
10-Oct
28-Feb
03-Jul
10-Nov
Mar-19
Jul-24
30-Nov
07-Apr
06-Aug
13-Dec
14-Apr
18-Aug
22-Dec
26-Apr
Aug-12
Jan-08
13-May
09/17/13
01/23/14
06/03/14
10/08/14
02/09/15
06/15/15
10/21/15
02/24/16
06/28/16
11/03/16
03/08/17
07/25/17
11/24/17
04/02/18
08/16/18
IDR per USD based on JISDOR
(Scale inverted to show weakening IDR)

7. Foreign exchange reserves decreased by US$17
billions in the last 8 months
Source: Bank Indonesia.
30.3
(Sep'05)
60.6
(Jul'08)
50.2
(Nov'08)
124.6
(Aug'11)
92.7
(Jul'13)
115.5
(Feb'15)
100.2
(Nov'15)
132.0
(Jan'18)
115.16
(Oct'18)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan'04
5
9
Jan'05
5
9
Jan'06
5
9
Jan'07
5
9
Jan'08
5
9
Jan'09
5
9
Jan'10
5
9
Jan'11
5
9
Jan'12
5
9
Jan'13
5
9
Jan'14
5
9
Jan'15
5
9
Jan'16
5
9
Jan'17
5
9
Jan'18
5
9
US$billions

8. Pasca krisis 1998, nilai tukar rupiah berkorelasi
kuat dengan current account
661
2.909
10.014
7.855
10.261
8.577
10.390
8.770
13.389
14.220
-7,34
-4,59
-3,43
4,55
2,80
0,19
-1,71
-2,86
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
60
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018*
Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average)-LHS
Current account balance (% of GDP)-RHS
*Q1-Q3 (January-September) for current account; year to date (November 21) for exchange rate.
Sources: Bank Indonesia and World Bank.

9. Getting to the root of the problem: balance of
payments
*Q1-Q3 (January-September).
Source: Bank Indonesia.
USD millions
2014 2015 2016 2017 2017* 2018* Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18
I. CURRENT ACCOUNT -27,510 -17,519 -16,952 -17,307 -11,417 -22,423 -2,215 -4,608 -4,594 -5,600 -7,977 -8,846
A. Goods, net (Trade account) 6,983 14,049 15,318 18,785 15,728 2,222 5,635 4,835 5,258 2,323 297 -398
1. Exports, f.o.b. 175,293 149,124 144,470 168,854 123,322 135,855 40,763 39,167 43,392 44,374 43,759 47,722
2. Imports, f.o.b. -168,310 -135,076 -129,152 -150,069 -107,593
-
133,633 -35,128 -34,332 -38,133 -42,050 -43,463 -48,120
B. Services, net -10,010 -8,697 -7,084 -7,834 -5,500 -5,727 -1,272 -2,129 -2,099 -1,656 -1,856 -2,215
C. Primary Income, net -29,703 -28,379 -29,647 -32,756 -24,953 -23,724 -7,716 -8,307 -8,930 -7,681 -8,017 -8,026
D. Secondary Income, net 5,220 5,508 4,460 4,498 3,307 4,806 1,138 993 1,176 1,414 1,599 1,793
II. CAPITAL ACCOUNT 27 17 41 46 24 70 0 5 19 58 3 9
III. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT 44,916 16,843 29,306 29,356 22,404 10,997 6,748 5,344 10,312 2,303 4,530 4,164
1. Direct investment 14,733 10,704 16,136 19,285 14,545 9,946 2,757 4,376 7,412 3,263 2,734 3,949
2. Portfolio investment 26,067 16,183 18,996 20,899 18,692 -1,271 6,536 8,126 4,030 -1,271 104 -104
3. Financial derivatives -156 20 -9 -128 -59 163 -72 25 -12 60 12 91
4. Other investment 4,272 -10,064 -5,817 -10,700 -10,774 2,159 -2,474 -7,182 -1,118 251 1,680 228
IV. NET ERRORS & OMISSIONS -2,184 -439 -305 -509 -399 -1,194 -19 -2 -378 -616 -864 286
V. RESERVES & RELATED ITEMS -15,249 1,098 -12,089 -11,586 -10,612 12,550 -4,514 -739 -5,359 3,855 4,309 4,386

10. Getting to the root of the problem: balance of
payments
*Q1-Q3 (January-September).
Source: Bank Indonesia.
USD millions
2014 2015 2016 2017 2017* 2018*
I. CURRENT ACCOUNT -27,510 -17,519 -16,952 -17,307 -11,417 -22,423
II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUT 44,943 16,860 29,347 29,402 22,428 11,067
1. Direct investment 14,733 10,704 16,136 19,285 14,545 9,946
2. Portfolio investment 26,067 16,183 18,996 20,899 18,692 -1,271
3. Financial derivatives -156 20 -9 -128 -59 163
4. Other investment 4,272 -10,064 -5,817 -10,700 -10,774 2,159
5. Capital account 27 17 41 46 24 70
IV. NET ERRORS & OMISSIONS -2,184 -439 -305 -509 -399 -1,194
V. RESERVES & RELATED ITEMS -15,249 1,098 -12,089 -11,586 -10,612 12,550

11. Simple anatomy of current account
*Q1-Q3 (January-September)
Source: Bank Indonesia.
USD millions
2017 2017* 2018* Q3-17 Q3-18
CURRENT ACCOUNT -17,307 -11,417 -22,423 -4,594 -8,846
% of GDP -1.70% -1.50% -2.86% -1.75% -3.37%
A. Goods, net (Trade account) 18,785 15,728 2,222 5,258 -398
1. Non-oil and gas, net 25,236 20,085 11,100 6,323 3,482
2. Oil -12,816 -9,129 -13,549 -2,741 -5,120
3. Gas 5,467 4,130 4,849 1,460 1,593
4. Others 899 641 -177 216 -298
B. Services, net -7,834 -5,500 -5,727 -2,099 -2,215
C. Primary Income, net -32,756 -24,953 -23,724 -8,930 -8,026
1. Compensation of employees -1,509 -1,098 -1,109 -397 -383
2. Investment income -31,248 -23,855 -22,614 -8,533 -7,643
a. Direct investment income -20,161 -14,947 -13,021 -5,338 -4,424
b. Portfolio investment income -8,837 -7,307 -8,048 -2,621 -2,761
C. Other investment income -2,250 -1,601 -1,544 -574 -457
D. Secondary Income, net 4,498 3,307 4,806 1,176 1,793

12. Transaksi perdagangan luar negeri (ekspor dan
impor) kembali defisit selama Januari-Juli 2018
2014 2015 2016 2017 2017* 2018* 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Total export 176.0 150.4 145.2 168.8 138.6 150.9 -3.4 -14.6 -3.9 16.3 8.8
Non-oil and gas 146.0 131.8 132.1 153.1 125.7 136.6 -2.6 -9.8 -0.3 15.9 8.7
Oil and gas 30.0 18.6 13.1 15.7 12.9 14.2 -7.0 -38.2 -29.4 20.1 9.9
Total import 178.2 142.7 -135.6 -157.0 -126.8 -156.4 -4.5 -19.9 -4.9 15.7 23.4
Non-oil and gas 134.7 118.1 -116.9 -132.6 -107.2 -131.4 -4.7 -12.3 -1.0 13.4 22.6
Oil and gas 43.5 24.6 -18.7 -24.3 -19.5 -25.0 -4.0 -43.4 -23.9 29.7 27.7
Surplus (Deficit) -2.2 7.7 9.5 11.8 10.8 -5.5
Non-oil and gas 11.3 13.7 15.2 20.4 16.7 5.2
Oil and gas -13.5 -6.0 -5.6 -8.6 -5.9 -10.7
US$ billion Growth, % (yoy)
Description
*January-September.
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Trade account

13. Surplus perdagangan barang cenderung susut,
bahkan 2012-2014 da 2018 alami defisit
*January-September.
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
-0,1 -0,4
8,3
2…
28,6
39,7
39,6
7,8
19,7
26,1
-4,1
11,9
-5,5
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1945
1955
1965
1973
1975
1983
1985
1988
1990
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2017*
2018*
USDbillions
USDbillions
International trade: exports and import
Exports (plus)-LHS Imports (minus)-LHS Surplus/deficit-RHS

14. Trade in services (net)
*Q1-Q3 (January-September)
Source: Bank Indonesia.
USD millions
2016 2017 2018*
Manufacturing services 351 354 290
Maintenance and repair services -353 -178 -132
Transport -5,544 -6,864 -6,371
Travel 3,639 4,242 4,041
Construction 93 183 215
Insurance and pension services -661 -647 -517
Financial services -577 -442 -349
Charges for the use of intellectual services -1,686 -1,801 -1,238
Telecommunications, computer, and information -1,175 -1,416 -1,239
Other business services -1,836 -1,947 -1,010
Personal, cultural, ad recreational services 36 74 51
Government goods ad services 630 607 532
Total services -7,084 -7,834 -5,727

15. Far more portfolio investment than FDI since
2014, but more volatile
* First half (January-June)
Source: Bank Indonesia.
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2017*
2018*
BillionsUSD
FDI Portfolio Total

16. FDI ke Indonesia relatif kecil
Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report database.
1990-97 2000-04 2005-10 2011-16
Indonesia 4.8 -3.3 5.6 5.7
Malaysia 16.0 10.4 13.6 14.0
Philippines 5.2 5.9 7.4 7.0
Thailand 4.5 14.2 13.2 6.1
Viet Nam 33.6 12.6 20.4 23.2
Bolivia 24.1 38.7 11.2 15.5
Asia 6.1 9.2 9.6 6.3
East and South-East Asia 8.0 11.2 9.3 6.5
South-East Asia 10.7 15.1 17.6 17.0
FDI inflows as a percentage of gross fixed capital formation, period average
1990-97 2000-04 2005-10 2011-16
Indonesia 8.2 7.1 16.2 24.1
Malaysia 29.0 37.6 34.7 40.6
Philippines 7.9 14.5 13.5 17.8
Thailand 10.2 29.1 35.8 44.7
Viet Nam 20.2 47.1 43.1 50.5
Bolivia 23.5 66.1 40.7 33.7
Asia 14.8 20.8 23.9 25.7
East and South-East Asia 21.7 29.8 30.2 29.7
South-East Asia 19.8 41.9 51.1 66.1
FDI inward stock as a percentage of gross domestic product, period average

17. Worst in Class
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-09-12/indonesia-is-flirting-with-the-wrong-kind-of-foreign-money
Among emerging Southeast Asian nations, Indonesia attracts the least foreign
direct investments as a percentage of its GDP.
6,3 6,4
7,0
0,7
1,7
2,9
2,7
3,2
2,9
4,5
3,0
2,4
0,4
2,2
1,7
2016 2017 2018
Vietnam Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia

18. Japanese FDI relocation from China to ASEAN
heading to Vietnam, nil to Indonesia in 2017
38
9
5
9
5
27
8
5
0 0
Vietnam Thailand Philippines Myanmar Indonesia
Destination of Japanese FDI relocating from China (number of cases)
2016 2017
Source: Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), “Survey Report on Overseas Business Operations by Japanese Manufacturing
Companies,” 2016 and 2017.

19. Stock index had a new record 12 times in 2015,
and 38 times in 2017, 11 times in 2018, but …
Source: Bursa Efek Indonesia (Indonesia Stock Exchange): http://www.idx.co.id
6.689
6.023
800
1.800
2.800
3.800
4.800
5.800
6.800
Oct-21'04
26-Jan
29-Apr
28-Jul
26-Oct
01-Feb
04-May
02-Aug
08-Nov
07-Feb
08-May
07-Aug
07-Nov
15-Feb
19-May
15-Aug
20-Nov
Feb-25
May-29
Aug-28
01-Dec
05-Mar
07-Jun
02-Sep
08-Dec
10-Mar
09-Jun
14-Sep
09-Dec
08-Mar
08-Jun
10-Sep
10-Dec
14-Mar
13-Jun
16-Sep
16-Dec
20-Mar
25-Jun
Sep-29
24-Dec
27-Mar
29-Jun
01-Oct
05-Jan
05-Apr
11-Jul
07-Oct
06-Jan
06-Apr
20-Jul
Oct-19
Jan-19
Apr-19
Aug-01
11/01/18
IDX (Jakarta Composite Index)
Net sale of foreign investors this year to
date (August 29) = IDR 50 triliions.
▪ On November 26, 2018: 6,022.778
▪ The highest (February 19, 2018): 6,689.287
▪ year to date → -5.24%
▪ year on year→ -0.73%

20. * Data as of 30 June 2018 except for Japan and the Republic of Korea (31 March 2018).
Source: Asian Development Bank, asianbondsonline.adb.org
Foreign holdings in LCY government bonds in
selected Asian countries
37,8
24,8
15,7
11,6
11,2
4,04
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Percent of total LCY bonds
Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Korea Japan China

21. Source: downloaded from https://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/pdf/2017/060317.pdf
Recent developments of foreign holdings of EM
of government debt securities in LC bonds
Average

22. This time is different: pattern of net inflows of
LCY government bonds (IDR triliun)
Note: Year to date for 2018: October 17.
Source: Ministry of Finance.

23. * Q1-Q3 (January-September).
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia and World Bank.
The rise and decline of Indonesian economy:
1961-2018
The fall of
Old Order
Pertamina
crisis
Oil price
collapse
Trendline-
polynomial
5,74
-2,24
10,92
4,98
8,76
9,88
2,25
6,98
2,46
7,46
8,22
-13,13
3,64
6,35
4,63
6,22
5,01 5,03
5,07
5,17
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
GDP growth, percent
Economic crisis and the end
of New Order/Soeharto era

24. The declining trend of economic growth in the
long-term, 1976-2018
*Q1-Q3 (January-September).
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
5%
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1976
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
2000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18*
GDP growth, percent
6%
7%
8%

25. Economic growth by island: Eastern Indonesia is
slowing down, but Sulawesi is the highest
2015 : 3.5%
2016 : 4.3%
2017 : 4.3%
2018*: 4.6%
Share : 21.7%
2017
2015 : 1.3%
2016 : 2.0%
2017 : 4.3%
2018*: 3.3%
Share : 8.2%
2017
2015. : 8.2%
2016. : 7.4%
2017 : 7.0%
2018*: 6.8%
Share : 6.1%
2017
2015 : 5.5%
2016 : 5.6%
2017 : 5.6%
2018*: 5.7%
Share : 58.5%
2017
2015: 10.3%
2016: 5.9%
2017: 3.7%
2018*: 2.2%
Share : 3.1%
2017
2015 : 6.6%
2016 : 7.5%
2017 : 4.9%
2018*: 13.7%
Share : 2.4%
2017
*Q1-Q3 (January-September)
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

26. Peranan pulau dalam pembentukan PDB
nasional (persen)
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
2010 2015 2016 2017 2018-1 2018-2 2018-3
Sumatera 23.1 22.2 22.0 21.7 21.5 21.5 21.5
Jawa 58.1 58.3 58.5 58.5 58.7 58.6 58.6
Kalimantan 9.2 8.2 7.9 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1
Bali & Nusa Tenggara 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.0
Sulawesi 4.5 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.3
Maluku & Papua 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5
Kawasan Barat Indonesia 90.4 88.7 88.4 88.4 88.5 88.2 88.2
Kawasan Timur Indonesia 9.6 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.8 11.8
Jawa 58.1 58.3 58.5 58.5 58.7 58.6 58.6
Luar Jawa 41.9 41.7 41.5 41.5 41.3 41.4 41.4

27. The Secondary Heart

28. Tax ratio has declined for the last 6 years in a
row, only single digit in the last two years
*Last quarter of 1999/2000 fiscal year plus April-December of 2000 fiscal year.
**January-September (preliminary).
Sources: World Bank for 1972-1999; for 2000-2018: Tax revenue from Ministry of Finance (APBN Kita, July edition); GDP from BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
12,4
21,9
18,8
14,6
19,1
16,3
10,6
13,3
10,5
11,4
10,9
9,9
9,3
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
% of GDP

29. Indonesia’s tax-to-GDP ratio is low compared
to peers
Sources: World Bank and OECD.
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Percent of GDP
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

30. Indonesia: degree of openness, 1960-2017
Source: World Bank: for exports downloaded from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS); and for imports downloaded from
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS. Downloaded on August 14, 2017.
9,9
23,1
25,2
27,6
36,6
33,7
27,7
23,9
19,7
13,2
20,6
23,8
26,1
31,1
27,6
24,7
23,7
18,7
23,0
43,7
49,0
53,7
67,8
61,2
52,5
47,7
38,5
1960-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-95 1996-2000 2001-05 2006-10 2011-15 2016-17
Percent of GDP
Exports of goods & services Imports of goods & services Total

31. Tradable merana, non-tradable melaju: GDP
growth by sector
*Q1-Q3 (January-September).
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Sectors 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Share
2017
Agriculture, forestry & fishery 4.59 4.20 4.24 3.77 3.25 3.81 3.91 13.14
Mining and Quarrying 3.02 2.53 0.43 -3.42 1.06 0.69 2.05 7.57
Manufacturing industry 5.62 4.37 4.64 4.33 4.29 4.27 4.24 20.16
Electricity and gas 10.06 5.23 5.90 0.90 5.39 1.54 5..48 1.19
Water, waste management, cesspit and recycling 3.34 3.32 5.24 7.07 3.60 4.61 4.60 0.07
Construction 6.56 6.11 6.97 6.36 5.22 6.79 6.27 10.38
Wholesale&retail trade, car&motorcycle reparations 5.40 4.81 5.18 2.59 3.93 4.44 5.14 13.01
Transportation and warehousing 7.11 6.97 7.36 6.68 7.74 8.49 7.59 5.41
Accommodation, food and beverages 6.64 6.80 5.77 4.31 4.94 5.55 5.70 2.85
Information and communication 12.28 10.39 10.12 9.69 8.87 9.81 7.80 3.80
Finance and insurance 9.54 8.76 4.68 8.59 8.90 5.48 3.59 4.20
Real estate 7.41 6.54 5.00 4.11 4.30 3.68 3.40 2.79
Business services 7.44 7.91 9.81 7.69 7.36 8.44 8.54 1.75
Public adm., defense, & compulsory social security 2.13 2.56 2.38 4.63 3.19 2.06 6.98 3.70
Education 8.22 7.44 5.47 7.33 3.84 3.66 5.51 3.29
Health and social activities 7.97 7.96 7.96 6.68 5.00 6.79 6.88 1.07
Other services 5.76 6.40 8.93 8.08 7.80 8.66 8.95 1.76
Gross domestic product 6.03 5.56 5.01 4.88 5.02 5.07 5.17 100

32. Growth of manufacturing industries, 2011-18
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia

33. GDP growth by expenditure (percent)
* Not included change in inventory.
** LNPRT stands for lembaga non-profit yang melayani rumah tangga (non-profit organization serving the household).
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
2016 2017 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18
Share
2017
Private consumption 5.01 4.95 4.94 4.95 4.93 4.97 4.95 5.14 5.01 56.13
LNPRT** consumption 6.64 6.91 8.05 8.49 6.02 5.24 8.09 8.71 8.54 1.18
General government consumption -0.14 2.14 2.68 -1.93 3.48 3.81 2.74 5.26 6.28 9.10
Gross domestic fixed capital
formation 4.47 6.15 4.78 5.35 7.08 7.27 7.95 5.87 6.96 32.16
Exports of goods and services -1.57 9.09 8.21 5.76 17.01 8.50 6.09 7.70 7.52 20.37
Less imports of goods and services -2.45 8.06 5.12 2.80 15.46 11.81 12.66 15.17 14.06 19.17
Gross domestic product 5.03 5.07 5.01 5.01 5.06 5.19 5.06 5.27 5.17 100.0*

34. Dibandingkan negara tetangga, pertumbuhan
konsumsi rumahtangga Indonesia stabil-rendah
Source: Worls Bank.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pertumbuhan konsumsi rumah tangga, persen
India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines China

35. Kualitas demokrasi Indonesia lumayan baik,
tertinggi di ASEAN
0,867
0,863
0,860
0,853
0,841
0,812
0,809
0,806
0,758
0,727
0,713
0,622
0,568
0,510
0,475
0,429
0,363
0,357
0,255
0,210
0,195
0,115
0,101
0,091
0,082
0,058
0,010
1. Norway
2. Sweden
3. Estonia
4. Switzerland
5. Denmark
13. France
14. Germany
16. United Kingdom
25. Japan
31. United States
34. South Korea
43. South Africa
56. Brazil
63. Timor-Leste
72. Indonesia
81. India
90. Philippines
92. Singapore
118. Myanmar
128. Malaysia
131. Vietnam
151. Russia
157. Thailand
160. Laos
162. Cambodia
167. China
178. North Korea
Liberal democracy index, 2017
Source: V-DEM Institute, Democracy for All?: V-DEM Annual Democracy Report 2018.

36. Versi EIU melorot tajam (48→68): lemah untuk
komponen political culture dan civil liberties
40
45
50
55
60
65
704,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
7,5
8,0
2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Democracy index 2017
Overall score Electoral process and pluralism
Functioning of government Political participation
Political culture Civil liberties
Rank-RHS
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit, Democracy Index, various issues.

37. Partai pendukung Jokowi (6+2+2)

38. Partai pendukung Prabowo-Sandi (4+0+2)

39. Pemilu & pilpres ibarat pendulum seandainya …
• Pemilu merupakan kontrak
politik baru atau
pembaruan kontrak politik.
• Seandainya nuansa
ideologi pekat, pendulum
akan bergerak ke kiri dan
ke kanan lebih jauh dari
titik tengah (warna hitam).
• Tidak hadir di Indonesia
• Tantangan ke depan: penguatan institusi, reformasi birokrasi, dan
governance.
Source: pepperspectives.com

40. Disiplin fiskal melonggar & kebijakan tambal sulam
▪ Angka-angka dalam APBN semu: subsidi energi
yang melonjak tidak tampak di APBN, dialihkan ke
Pertamina dan PLN; realokasi anggaran;
pembayaran subsidi ditunda.
▪ Mengatasi defisit perdagangan dengan substitusi
impor yang tentunya butuh waktu panjang.
▪ Nasionalisme dan kedaulatan: Freeport dan
Chevron (Blok Rokan).
▪ Belakangan mulai sadar dan lebih realistis: utang
dan defisit APBN, kemerosotan rupiah, belanja
kurang berkualitas.
▪ State capitalism dan ICOR tinggi.

41. The electability of Jokowi-Ma’ruf is
comfortably higher than Prabowo-Sandi
Source: Litbang (R&D) Kompas
42,5
31
29,6
36,3
37,8
41,6
46,3
55,9
52,6
13,8
23,4
22,1
16,3
16,3
22,1
18,2
14,1
32,7
10,9
17,3
16,5
14,3
28,6
12,4
11,9
7,9
32,8
28,3
31,8
33,1
17,3
23,9
23,6
22,1
14,7
Jan'15 Apr'15 Oct'15 Apr'16 Oct'16 Apr'17 Oct'17 Apr'18 Oct'18
Joko Widodo
Prabowo Subianto
Others
Do't know/Don't answer

42. Overall satisfaction with the government's
performance decline significantly in October 2018
Source: Litbang (R&D) Kompas
65,1
53,8 54,3
67,4
65,9
63,1
70,8
72,2
65,3
34,9
46,2 45,7
32,6
34,1
36,9
29,2
27,8
34,7
January
2015
April
2015
October
2015
April
2016
October
2016
April
2017
October
2017
April
2018
October
2018
Percent
Satisfied Not satisfied

43. The level of satisfaction in all areas decreased,
the lowest is in the economic field
Field
Jan
2015
Apr
2015
Oct
2015
Apr
2016
Oct
2016
Apr
2017
Oct
2017
Oct
2018
Politics and security 73.1 69.3 69.6 75.9 75.0 71.2 76.4 73.1
Law enforcement 59.9 43.6 46.4 55.6 50.7 53.2 61.0 55.3
Economy 43.2 33.5 37.3 48.2 52.0 46.1 55,2 50.2
Social welfare 61.1 62.6 56.6 67.0 69.8 65.8 72,8 64.8
Source: Litbang (R&D) Kompas

44. Potential for governance problems: pre-crisis
HIGH
LOW
DISPERSAL OF DECISION-MAKING POWER
LOW
(CONCENTRATED)
HIGH
(FRAGMENTED)
Philippines
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
Source: Andrew MacIntyre, The Power of Institutions: Political Architecture and Governance, Ithaca and
London: Cornell University Press, 2003.

45. Potential for governance problems: post-crisis
Source: Andrew MacIntyre, The Power of Institutions: Political Architecture and Governance, Ithaca and
London: Cornell University Press, 2003.



Philippines
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
HIGH
LOW
DISPERSAL OF DECISION-MAKING POWER
LOW
(CONCENTRATED)
HIGH
(FRAGMENTED)

46. Part VII
Economic Prospect 2018-2019

47. Policy responses matter: projections of GDP growth of
ASEAN countries
* Projections.
Source: ADB, Asian Development Outlook 2018, April 2018, and ADO 2017..
year-on-year, percent
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019*
Brunei Darussalam -2.1 -2.5 -0.4 -2.5 0.8 1.5 2.0
Cambodia 7.4 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
Indonesia 5.6 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.3
Lao PDR 7.8 7.5 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.8 7.0
Malaysia 4.7 6.0 5.0 4.2 5.9 5.3 5.0
Myanmar 8.4 8.0 7.0 5.9 6.8 6.8 7.2
Philippines 7.1 6.2 6.1 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.9
Singapore 4.7 3.6 2.2 2.4 3.6 3.1 2.9
Thailand 2.7 0.9 3.0 3.3 3.9 4.0 4.1
Vietnam 5.4 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.8 7.1 6.8
Memo: ASEAN 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.7 5.2 5.2 5.2

48. Projections of GDP growth by several agencies
Agency
Latest
Published
2014
(5.0)
2015*
(4.9)
2016*
(5.0)
2017*
(5.1) 2018** 2019**
Gov’t of Indonesia Aug. 2018 5.2 (+0.2) 5.2 (+0.3) 5.1 (+0.1) 5.2 (+0.1) 5.2 5.3
Bank Indonesia Aug. 2018 5.3 (+0.3) 5.2 (+0.3) 5.2 (+0.2) 5.2 (+0.1) 5.2 5.3
IMF Oct. 2018 5.2 (+0.2) 5.2 (+0.3) 5.0 (0.0) 5.2 (+0.1) 5.1 5.1
World Bank Oct. 2018 5.1 (+0.1) 4.7 (-0.2) 5.1 (+0.1) 5.1 (0.0) 5.2 5.2
ADB Sep. 2018 5.1 (+0.1) 5.0 (+0.1) 5.0 (0.0) 5.1 (0.0) 5.2 5.3
The Economist Oct. 2018 5.1 (+0.1) 4.9 (0.0) 5.0 (0.0) 5.2 (+0.1) 5.2 5.1
Faisal Basri Nov. 2018 5.0 (0.0) 4.9 (0.0) 4.9 (-0.1) 5.0 (-0.1) 5.0 4.9
*As of April-July
** Projection

49. Economic growth is far below the
government's target
2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019**
Average
2015-19
RPJM target 5.5 6.6 7.1 7.5 8.0 6.94
Actual & projection 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.98
Difference -0.6 -1.6 -2.0 -2.5 -3.1 -1.96
*Estimate
**Projection

50. Terima Kasih
Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com
Twitter: @faisalbasri
Blog: faisalbasri.com
Blog: kompasiana.com/faisalbasri