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It's E-Commerce, stupid!
1. Page 1
April 2020
IT‘S E-COMMERCE,
STUPID!
Cyclical and Structural Effects in Today‘s E-Commerce Landscape.
2. Page 2
COVID-19 is making the future happen faster and is
reshuffling the status quo.
Online consumer spending is changing significantly:
88% sales increase in medicine, 56% in food and a
35% decrease in fashion in March 2020 y-o-y.
The current cyclical development should be a wake-
up call to companies that have neglected or
deprioritized e-commerce in the past.
Key effects in e-commerce show, that organizations
will miss out on significant revenue if they do not get
on the moving train soon.
CONTEXT
RESHUFFLED
E-COMMERCE
3. Page 3
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
dia Food & Personal Care Furniture & Appliances Toys, Hobby & DIY
Sources: Market development: Statista Digital Market Outlook E-Commerce in Germany, CAGR & ARPU for 2020 – 2024); Dependency: DHL & IFH Köln 2017, Onlinehändler im Spannungsfeld von
Wachstum und Marktkonzentration; IFH Köln 2018: Amazonisierung des Konsums; Digital Marketing: mawave Performance marketing agency, based on client data
Why getting more out of your e-commerce now?
Apart from current cyclical effects due to Covid-19, e-
commerce in Germany is expected to continue
growing with a 9% CAGR (2020- 2024).
Most organizations strongly depend on the big digital
platforms with amazon generating 46% of their
revenues. However, high price pressure requires to
rethink the online channels set-up.
Due to the Covid-19 pandemic we see significant price
drops in digital marketing, e.g. CPC on Facebook
declining by 58%, which enable new opportunities to
boost sales.
EFFECTS IN E-COMMERCE
TIME TO
GET STARTEDExpected CAGR
+ 9%
Expected ARPU
+ 7%
Revenue via Amazon
46%
Feeling dependent
33%
Change CPM
-38%
Change CPC
-58 %
STEADY STRUCTURAL
GROWTH OF E-COMMERCE
IN GERMANY
STRONG DEPENDENCY ON
DIGITAL BIG PLAYERS
(E.G. AMAZON)
DRASTIC PRICE DROP IN
DIGITAL MARKETING
Change 20.02 – 20.03.2020 based on performance of
over 100 Facebook campaigns
4. Page 4
Consumer
Electronics
Structural low2
Cyclical
negative1
Food
Accessories &
Jewelry
Shoes
Clothing
Furniture &
Household goods
Household
appliances
Toys
Books, Movies,
Music & more
Hobby
& Stationary
DIY, Gardening &
Animal need
Electronics &
Media
FashionToys & DIY
Furniture &
Household
Nutrition & Health
While Consumer Electronics, Media and
Household Appliances suffer in short term
but are expected to keep growing in the
long run, COVID-19 will accelerate the
long-term growth for Food/Nutrition and
medical products.
Medication
Structural high2
1Influence of Corona crisis represented by sales change March 2019 vs. March 2020 2Long-term growth of various industries represented by CAGR 2020-2024 for Germany
Sources: Statista Digital Market Outlook E-Commerce in Germany, CAGR for 2020 – 2024; BEVH, April 2020
Comparing the long-term structural growth of various e-commerce industries, with the cyclical short-term
impact of the Corona crisis
INSIGHTS
STRUCTURAL AND CYCLICAL IMPACT
Color coding product groups:
+ 88%
- 52%
3%
10%
Structural (CAGR) Cyclical (change March 2020 y-o-y)
Cyclical
positive1
- 4%
5. Page 5
THE BLOOM PARTNERS
E-COMMERCE
TOOLKIT
RESULTS:
REVENUE POTENTIAL AND IMPLEMENTATION ROADMAP
BOOSTING
EXISTING CHANNELS
IDENTIFYING
NEW CHANNELS
OPTIMIZING DIGITAL
MARKETING
UNDERSTANDING MARKET
& CONSUMER TRENDS
Faced with cyclical effects impacting structural growth, it is
key for companies to face essential questions in order to
identify and leverage their individual e-commerce potential:
• What are the specific market and customer trends?
• What sales increase is possible in existing channels,
including product adaptations or development?
• On which additional channels can and should our
products be offered?
• How can we increase our sales by optimizing digital
marketing?
Utilizing our E-Commerce Toolkit, we model our clients‘ e-
commerce potential along individual uplift-levers while
recognizing short- and long-term effects and translate the
insights into an implementation roadmap.
6. Page 6
CONTEXT
• FMCG client confronted with the challenge to
forecast the expected revenue by 2025 via
B2B2C e-commerce
• After recent acquisitions, potential synergies
have not yet been successfully leveraged
• Increasingly under pricing pressure from one of
the key channels Amazon
APPROACH & IMPLEMENTATION
• Developing an Excel-based potential model
including developing three revenue scenarios
(High, Medium, Low) for the client’s B2B2C e-
commerce in 2025 based on identified growth
levers
• Special consideration of company- and
product-specific uplifts and downsides
• Deep-dive into uplift effects by optimizing
product content
• Preparing key results as slide deck for internal
communication
RESULTS
Modeled revenue uplift by 2025, three scenarios:
• Excel model shows specific implementation measures to achieve the
revenue forecast within the defined levers, while considering different
degrees of impact over the years
• Presentation of results displays approach and scenarios including
individual impact of the growth levers
Market & segment
development
For a client in the FMCG sector, Bloom Partners analyzed and modeled five levers to increase sales and
developed three revenue scenarios for 2025.
REFERENCE CASE
UTILIZING THE E-COMMERCE TOOLKIT FOR FMCG-CLIENT
Scenario 3: „High“
+ 310%
Scenario 2: „Medium“
+ 205%
Scenario 1: „Low“
+ 135 %
Boosting
existing channels
Identifying new
channels
Optimizing digital
marketing
Optimizing product
content
REVENUE-UPLIFT INDIVIDUAL LEVERS (SCENARIO „MEDIUM“)
+ 14% + 39% + 10% + 29% + 59%
e.g. by product bundling,
extension of current
product portfolio
Industry-specific, -related
and -unrelated channels
(e.g. Westwing or Christ)
e.g. by optimizing target
groups and CTAs, content
synergies
e.g. optimization of PDPs
and SEO, product images
and videos
7. Page 7
DR. MARKUS PFEIFFER
CEO
TELEFON
MOBILE
E-MAIL
ADRESSE
+49 89 124 1395 0
+49 151 16761580
mpfeiffer@bloom-partners.com
Prannerstr. 11, 80333 München
GET IN TOUCH
HEIKE POLEY
Senior Consultant
MOBILE
E-MAIL
ADRESSE
+49 151 100 151 82
hpoley@bloom-partners.com
Prannerstr. 11, 80333 München