This presentation is entitled as Climate change impact on Bangladesh. It includes the possible impact on Bangladesh in different sectors like agriculture, food security, coastal areas, industry, migration pattern etc. It also describes about the possible climate change scenarios of Bangladesh in different condition along with its impact.

1. After Cyclone at Khulna
After Aila at
Shatkhira, May 2009
Climatic Displacement at
Southern BD
Climate Change and its possible Impact on
Bangladesh
1

2. Minhaz Hasan Sujan
Md. Shahparan
Student of Masters of Science (MS)
Department of Geography and Environment
Shahjalal University of Science and Technology
Sylhet-3114, Bangladesh
Presented By
Course No : GEE 521
Course Name :Climate Change, Government Policy and
Action Strategy
2
minhaz.hasan46@gmail.com
minhazhasan@student.sust.edu

3. Key Topics
Probable
Climate
Change
Impact
land use
change
crop
production
Food
Security
Industry
Vegetation
Cover
Migration
pattern
3

4. Predicted Climatic Condition of
Bangladesh
4

5. Time Duration : 2010-2099
During : 4 different seasons
Condition :
1. Highest future emissions scenario
2. Lowest future emissions scenario
Temperature Change Scenario
5

6. Temperature Change Senario:2010-2099
Period
Dec-Feb Mar-May Jun-Aug Sep-Nov
A1F1
°C
B1 °C A1F1 °C B1 °C A1F1 °C B1°C
A1F1°
C
B1°C
2010-39 +1.17 +1.11 +1.18 +1.07 +0.54 +0.55 +0.78 +0.83
2040-69 +3.16 +1.97 +2.97 +1.81 +1.71 +0.88 +2.41 +1.49
2070-99 +5.44 +5.22 +5.22 +2.71 +3.14 +1.56 +4.19 +2.17
1953-08 18.7 28.9 28.7 27.4
Notes:
1. source: IPCC 2007
2. A1F1 = highest future emissions scenario
3. B1 = Lowest future emissions scenario
6

7. Time Duration : 2010-2099
During : 4 different seasons
Condition :
1. highest future emissions scenario
2. Lowest future emissions scenario
Precipitation Change Scenario
7

8. Notes:
1. source: IPCC 2007
2. A1F1 = highest future emissions scenario
3. B1 = Lowest future emissions scenario
Climate Change and Its Possible Impacts on BD
Period Dec-Feb Mar-May Jun-Aug Sep-Nov
A1F1 mm B1 mm A1F1 mm B1 mm A1F1 mm B1mm A1F1°C B1mm
2010-39 -1.1 +1.5 +35 +40 +53 +75 +5 +16
2040-69 0.0 0.0 +130 +120 +139 +117 +41 +31
2070-99 -5.9 -2.2 +155 +100 +277 +160 +134 +52
1953-08 37 499 1066 516
8

9. Time Duration : 1999-2075
During : Monsoon and Winter
Elements : Change in Temperature, Rainfall and Evaporation
Condition :
1. Using Model: Langs Index and Aridity Index
Climatic Elements Change
9

10. Climate Change and Its Possible Impacts on BD
Year Avg. Tem. (°C)* Tem. Increase
(°C)
Avg. Precip.
(mm/m) **
Pre. Increase
(mm/m)
Change in
Evaporation***
W M A W M A W M A W M A W M A
Base Y 19.9 28.7 25.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 12 418 179 0 0 0 0.6 14.6 83.7
2030 21.4 29.4 27.0 1.3 0.7 1.3 18 465 189 6 47 10 0.9 15.8 83.9
1975 22.0 30.4 28.3 2.1 1.7 2.6 00 530 207 -12 112 28 Inf. 13.5 87.9
Notes:
* Estimated values obtained by correlating model output data with the
observed data.
** Estimated based on model output data regarding rate of temperature
change.
***Estimated using langs Index and expressed in terms of Aridity Index
Here,
W = winter,
M = monsoon,
Ave = average and
Inf = infinity
Table: Extent of changes in temperature, precipitation and evaporation
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999
10

11. Climate Change and Its Possible Impacts on BD
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
TEMPERATURE(°C)
MONTH
CHART: CHANGE IN MEAN MONTHLY TEMPERATURE (°C) DURING 1990-
2075
1990 2030 2075
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999
11

12. Climate Change and Its Possible Impacts on BD
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
RAINFALL(MM)
MONTH
CHART: CHANGE IN MONTHLY AVERAGE PRECIPITATION (MM)
DURING 1990-2075
1990 2030 2075
12

13. Possible impact on Water Resources
13

14. The probable impact of climate change on Water
Resources are considered depending on two key sides:
1. Supply Side
2. Demand Side
DEMAND
Impact of CC on Water Resources in terms of Inundation
14

15.  Changes in river water level in monsoon which would reflect
the change in depth of inundation.
 Salinity intrusion due to sea level rise and low water flow
from upstream during the winter.
1. Considering the SUPPLY side
Water resources sector deals vulnerability of the
following sub-sectors under the different
combination of climate change and sea level rise
options
Impact of CC on Water Resources in terms of Inundation
15

16. 2. Considering the DEMAND side
water resources sector deals vulnerability of the
following subsectors under the different combination of
climate change and sea level rise options:
 Changes in soil moisture would reflect the changes in drought
situation, and
 Changes in groundwater level or groundwater fluctuation.
Impact of CC on Water Resources in terms of Inundation
16

17. Parameters 2030 2075
Winter Monsoon Winter Monsoon
Temperature (°C) 2 0.65 3 1.5
Evaporation (%) 10 2 16 5
Precipitation (%) -3 11 -37 28
Discharge (%) -5 20 -67 51
Watershed
Development(%)
60 100
SLR (cm) 30 70
Table: The fluctuations of values of the parameters considered with
respect to their values under base-year situation
Note:
Base simulation run of the model [General Circulation Model
(GCM)]has been performed under the present climate condition and
assuming no sea level rise
Source: Adapted from Ahmed et al., 1996
Impact of CC on Water Resources in terms of Inundation
17

18. MPO (Master Plan Organization ) Land Type
 This is the first and most reliable national land type database
 uses in any analytical job and national policy planning issues.
 Under the activity of Flood Action Plan, MPO land type database was
converted into the digital
 format spatial database, considering inundation criteria of lands during
monsoon.
Impact of CC on Water Resources in terms of Inundation
18

19. MPO Land Type
Land Type Description Flood Depth (cm) Nature of Flooding
F0 High Land <30 Intermittent
F1 Medium High land 30-90 Seasonal
F2 Medium Low 90-180 Seasonal
F3 Lowland 180-360 Seasonal
F4 Low to very low >360 Seasonal/perennial
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999
Impact of CC on Water Resources in terms of Inundation
19

20. Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of
Bangladesh in terms of Inundation from the Base
Year of 1990 to 170
20

21. Land
Type
Description
Flood Depth
(cm)
F0 High Land <30
F1 Medium High L 30-90
F2 Medium Low 90-180
F3 Lowland 180-360
F4 Low to very low >360
Impact of CC on Water Resources in terms of Inundation
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999
21

22. MPO Land Type
Areas in the Base
Year of 1990
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999 22

23. Land Type Present
condition
Transformed in
F0 F1 F2 F3+F4
F0 43,060 23,425 16,033 3,442 170
F0+F1 1,184 592 592
F1 31,986 4399 9,519 17,672 396
F1+F2 260 130 130
F2 15,572 2,440 162 7,903 5,067
F2+F3+F4 362 2,080 127 235
F3+F4 14,076 757 9 155 11,836
Urban area 767
RB/SB 1,539
Forest 5,546
Mixed land 178
No data 647
total 115,167 33,683 26,445 29,429 17,700
Land
Type
Description
Flood Depth
(cm)
F0 High Land <30
F1 Medium High L 30-90
F2 Medium Low 90-180
F3 Lowland 180-360
F4 Low to very low >360
Table: Probable Changes of MPO land type from one class to
the others in 2030
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999
Impact of CC on Water Resources in terms of Inundation
23

24. MPO Land Type
Areas in the
Projected Year of
2030
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999 24

25. Table: Probable Changes of MPO land type from one class to
the others in 2075
Land Type
Present
condition
Transformed in
F0 F1 F2 F3+F4
F0 43,060 19,588 16,203 6,730 537
F0+F1 1,184 592 592
F1 31,986 7,884 4,160 17,589 2,354
F1+F2 260 130 130
F2 15,572 4,735 429 3,552 6,854
F2+F3+F4 362 127 235
F3+F4 14,076 3,088 46 10,946
Urban area 767 757
RB/SB 1,539
Forest 5,546
Mixed land 178
No data 647
total 115,167
Land
Type
Description
Flood Depth
(cm)
F0 High Land <30
F1 Medium High L 30-90
F2 Medium Low 90-180
F3 Lowland 180-360
F4 Low to very low >360
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999
Impact of CC on Water Resources in terms of Inundation
25

26. MPO Land Type
Areas in the
Projected Year of
2075
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999 26

27. 1990 2030 2075
Impact of CC on Water Resources in terms of Inundation
Source: Saleemul et al, 199927

28. Climate Change impact on Water Resources:
Probable Sectors
28

29. Possible Impact of Climate Change
on Agriculture and Food Security
29

30. Table: Crop statistics of major cereals for the fiscal year 2005-06
Crop Area
(thousand ha)
Average yield
(tons ha.1)
Current production
(thousand tons)
HYV Aus 415 2.42 702
HYV Aman 2,146 2.96 4,484
HYV Boro 2,409 3.56 6,200
Other Rice 4,951 1.63 5,447
Rice Total 9,921 2.29 16,833
Wheat 592 1.85 890
Major Cereal
Total
10,513 17,723
Note: Average yields are national averages. Rice average yields are
expressed as rough rice.
Source: BBS, 2008
Impact of CC on Agriculture and Food Security (Cont…)
30

31. Table: Rice and wheat production under different climate
change scenarios
Simulation HYV Aus HYV Aman HYV Boro Wheat
('000'
tonnes)
Percent
change
('000'
tonnes)
Percent
change
('000'
tonnes)
Percent
change
('000'
tonnes)
Percent
change
Baseline (I 994-95) 702 0 4,484 0 6,200 0 890 0
CCCM 512 -27 4,170 -7 6,014 -3 712 -20
GFDL 512 -27 3,901 -13 5,766 -7 347 -61
330 ppmv C02 +2°C 569 -19 3,901 -13 5,952 -4 561 -37
330 ppmv C02+4°C 435 -38 3,363 -25 5,766 -7 285 -68
580 ppmv C02 +0°C 920 31 5,605 25 7,626 23 1,228 38
580 ppmv C02 +2°C 793 13 4,977 11 7,440 20 881 -1
580 ppmv C02+4°C 660 -6 4,529 1 7,192 16 534 -40
660 ppmv C02+0°C 983 40 5,964 33 8,060 30 1,317 48
660 ppmv C02 +2°C 856 22 5,336 19 7,874 27 970 9
660 ppmv C02 +4 °C 730 4 4,888 9 7,626 23 614 -31
Source:Saleemuletal,1999
Impact of CC on Agriculture and Food Security (Cont…)
31

32. Table: Percent change in Bora yields under different climate scenarios
and irrigation levels
Simulation Jessore Rajshahi Chittagong
330 C02+No Moisture Stress 0 0 0
CCCM +No Moisture Stress -9 -3 -7
CCCM +30% Moisture Stress -35 -34 18
CCCM +60% Moisture Stress -58 -63 -64
GFDL+No Moisture Stress -5 -3 9
GFDL+30% Moisture Stress -33 -25 16
GFDL+60% Moisture Stress -58 -55 -62
330 C02+30% Moisture Stress -2 -1 -4
330 C02+60% Moisture Stress -29 -33 10
660 C02+No Moisture Stress 22 26 16
660 C02+30% Moisture Stress 17 16 12
660 C02+60% Moisture Stress 10 3 15
660 C02+ 4°C +No Moisture Stress 6 20 8
660 C02+4°C +30% Moisture Stress -2 6 10
660 C02+4°C +60% Moisture Stress -32 -32 -19
Source:Saleemuletal,1999
Impact of CC on Agriculture and Food Security (Cont…)
32

33. Possible Impact of Climate Change
on Agriculture and Food Security in
Terms of Salinity Intrusion
33

34. Table: Soil salinity classification on the basis of
electrical conductivity
Salinity Class Notation EC (in dsm-1) Plant growth condition
Non-saline S0 <2 Salinity effects mostly negligible
Slightly saline S1 2 to 4 Yields of very sensitive crop may
be restricted
Moderately saline S2 4 to 8 Yields of many crops are restricted
Saline S3 8 to 16 Only tolerant crops yield
satisfactorily
Highly saline S4 > 16 Only very tolerant crops yield
satisfactorily
Note: EC refers to electric conductivity of saturated aqueous extracts of top-soils
Source: Karim et al 1990
Impact of CC on Agriculture and Food Security (Cont…)
34

35. Table: Soil salinity distribution under baseline condition
(CCSO)
Month Area under different soil salinity class (in thousand hectares)
S0 S1 S2 S3 S4
August 287.4 426.4 75.8 41.9 2.0
September 258.6 433.9 93.1 45.9 2.0
October 244.3 426.9 110.4 47.9 4.0
November 215.5 391.7 170.4 45.9 11.0
December 201.2 406.0 162.4 51.9 12.0
January 201.2 384.7 179.8 55.8 12.0
February 172.4 413.5 175.8 57.8 14.0
March 115.0 428.3 210.5 63.8 16.0
April 0.0 287.4 426.4 79.8 39.9
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999
Impact of CC on Agriculture and Food Security (Cont…)
Salinity
Class
Notat
ion
EC (in
dsm-1)
Non-saline S0 <2
Slightly
saline
S1 2 to 4
Moderatel
y saline
S2 4 to 8
Saline S3 8 to 16
Highly
saline
S4 > 16
35

36. Table: Soil salinity distribution under baseline
condition (CCS1)
Month Area under different soil salinity class (in thousand hectares)
S0 S1 S2 S3 S4
258.6 412.5 108.7 51.2 2.4
232.8 417.8 123.6 56.9 2.4
219.8 410.1 138.5 60.3 4.8
194.0 374.1 194.7 58.8 11.8
181.0 387.0 183.2 67.8 14.4
181.0 366.4 198.1 73.6 14.4
155.2 392.2 192.4 76.9 16.8
103.5 402.7 222.2 85.9 19.2
0.0 258.6 412.5 114.4 47.9
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999
Impact of CC on Agriculture and Food Security (Cont…)
Salinity
Class
Notat
ion
EC (in
dsm-1)
Non-saline S0 <2
Slightly
saline
S1 2 to 4
Moderatel
y saline
S2 4 to 8
Saline S3 8 to 16
Highly
saline
S4 > 16
36

37. Table: Soil salinity distribution under the severe
climate change scenario (CCS2)
Month Area under different soil salinity class (in thousand hectares)
S0 S1 S2 S3 S4
August 158.1 363.9 224.0 83.8 3.8
September 142.3 361.5 230.4 95.6 3.8
October 134.4 351.2 236.8 103.6 7.6
November 118.5 312.4 279.6 104.0 19.0
December 110.6 320.3 256.0 123.8 22.7
January 110.6 302.1 262.4 135.6 22.7
February 94.8 317.9 250.6 143.6 26.5
March 63.2 313.1 263.4 163.4 30.3
April 0.0 158.1 363.9 235.8 75.8
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999
Impact of CC on Agriculture and Food Security (Cont…)
Salinity
Class
Notat
ion
EC (in
dsm-1)
Non-saline S0 <2
Slightly
saline
S1 2 to 4
Moderatel
y saline
S2 4 to 8
Saline S3 8 to 16
Highly
saline
S4 > 16
37

38. Table: Loss of Aus production under the three
scenarios (without adaptation)
Scenario
specification
Variety specification Production loss
(tones)
Baseline (no climate
change, CCSO)
B Aus 39710.3
HYV Aus 25907.6
Total Aus 65617.9
Moderate Climate
Change Scenario
(CCSl)
B Aus 46139.5
HYV Aus 29631.0
Total Aus 75770.5
Severe Climate
Change Scenario
(CCS2)
B Aus 55579.9
HYV Aus 42042.5
Total Aus 97622.4
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999
Impact of CC on Agriculture and Food Security (Cont…)
Salinity
Class
Notat
ion
EC (in
dsm-1)
Non-saline S0 <2
Slightly
saline
S1 2 to 4
Moderatel
y saline
S2 4 to 8
Saline S3 8 to 16
Highly
saline
S4 > 16
38

39. Table: Loss of Aman production under the three
scenarios (without adaptation)
Scenario
specification
Variety specification Production loss (tones)
Baseline (no
climate change,
CCSO)
B Aman 0.0
T Aman 100270.4
HYV Aman 30809.8
Total Aman 130780.2
Moderate Climate
Change Scenario
(CCSl)
B Aman 0.0
T Aman 150405.6
HYV Aman 45764.7
Total Aman 196170.2
Severe Climate
Change Scenario
(CCS2)
B Aman 0.0
T Aman 438682.9
HYV Aman 122039.1
Total Aman 560722.0
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999
Impact of CC on Agriculture and Food Security (Cont…)
Salinity
Class
Notat
ion
EC (in
dsm-1)
Non-saline S0 <2
Slightly
saline
S1 2 to 4
Moderatel
y saline
S2 4 to 8
Saline S3 8 to 16
Highly
saline
S4 > 16
39

40. Table: Total loss in food grain production under
the three climate change Scenarios
Climate Change
Scenarios
Production loss due to soil salinity (in tonnes)
Aus Aman Total grain
Baseline (CCSO) 65617.9 130780.2 196398.1
Moderate (CCS I) 75770.5 196170.2 27 1940.8
Severe (CCS2) 97622.4 560722.0 658344 .4
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999
Impact of CC on Agriculture and Food Security (Cont…)
Salinity Class Notation EC (in dsm-1)
Non-saline S0 <2
Slightly saline S1 2 to 4
Mod. saline S2 4 to 8
Saline S3 8 to 16
Highly saline S4 > 16
40

41. Table: Loss of Aus production under adaptation scenarios
Scenario specification Variety
specification
Production loss
(tonnes)
Moderate Adaptation on
Moderate
B Aus 22280.5
Climate Change HYV Aus 12691.0
(CCSIMA) Total Aus 34971.6
Full Adaptation on
Severe Climate
B Aus 6374.5
Change HYV Aus 13697.4
(CCS2FA) Total Aus 20071.9
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999
Impact of CC on Agriculture and Food Security (Cont…)
Salinity Class Notation EC (in dsm-1)
Non-saline S0 <2
Slightly saline S1 2 to 4
Mod. saline S2 4 to 8
Saline S3 8 to 16
Highly saline S4 > 16
41

42. Table: Loss of Aman production under adaptation
scenarios
Scenario specification Variety specification Production loss
(tonnes)
Moderate Adaptation
on Moderate Climate
Change
(CCS1MA)
B Aman 0.0
T Aman 62669.0
HYV Aman 15254.9
Total Aman 77923.9
Full Adaptation on
Severe Climate
Change
(CCS2FA)
B Aman 0.0
T Aman 250675.9
HYV Aman 61019.6
Total Aman 311695.5
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999
Impact of CC on Agriculture and Food Security (Cont…)
Salinity Class Notation EC (in dsm-1)
Non-saline S0 <2
Slightly saline S1 2 to 4
Mod. saline S2 4 to 8
Saline S3 8 to 16
Highly saline S4 > 16
42

43. Table: Overall food grain production loss due to soil
salinity with Adaptation
Adaptation
Scenario
Production loss due to soil salinity (in tones)
Aus Amon Total grain loss
Baseline (CCSO) 65617.9 130780.2 196398.1
Moderate
(CCS1MA)
34971.6 77923.9 112895.4
Full (CCS2F A) 20071.9 311695.5 331767.4
Source: Saleemul et al, 1999
Impact of CC on Agriculture and Food Security (Cont…)
Salinity Class Notation EC (in dsm-1)
Non-saline S0 <2
Slightly saline S1 2 to 4
Mod. saline S2 4 to 8
Saline S3 8 to 16
Highly saline S4 > 16
43

44. Impact of Climate Change on Migration Pattern
44

45. Source: ICE Case Studies, Number 229, December, 2010
Impact of Climate
Change on
Migration Pattern
45

46. Source: ICE Case Studies, Number 229, December, 2010
Impact of Climate
Change on
Migration Pattern
46

47. Source: BBS,2015
Impact of Climate
Change on Migration
Pattern in terms of
Triggering force as
Salinity
47

48. Source: ICE Case Studies,
Number 229, December, 2010
Impact of Climate
Change on
Migration Pattern
48

49. Source: ICE Case Studies, Number 229, December, 2010
Migration Due to
Extreme Climatic
Events
49

50. Source: Anwer, S. 2012
Migration from
Jamalpur
50

51. Source: Anwer, S. 2012
Migration from
Khulna
51

52. Source: Anwer, S. 2012
Migration from Bhola
52

53. Source: Blake et al, 2011:444
Table: Migration Variants and relationship with Climate Change in
Bangladesh
Impact of Climate Change on Migration Pattern
53

54. Possible Impact of Climate Change
on Industry
54

55. Source: Steeves et al, 2016
Possible Impact on
Industry of BD by
CC
55

56. Source: Steeves et al, 2016
Loss of Investment in
Industry due to
Climate Change
56

57. 57
Thank YOU