1.
Bangladesh Delta Scenarios
Dr. Md. Taibur Rahman
trsumon@gmail.com
BANGLADESH DELTA PLAN 2100
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

2.
BDP2100 Vision
Ensure long term water and food security, economic
growth and environmental sustainability while effectively
coping with natural disasters, climate change and other
delta issues through robust, adaptive and integrated
strategies, and equitable water governance.

3.
Tentative BDP Goals
Goal 1: Ensure safety from floods and climate change related
disasters
Goal 2: Ensure water security and efficiency of water usages
Goal 3: Ensure sustainable and integrated river systems and
estuaries management
Goal 4: Conserve and preserve wetlands and ecosystems and
promote their wise use
Goal 5: Develop effective institutions and equitable
governance for in country and trans-boundary water
resources management
Goal 6: Achieve optimal use of land and water resources
Scenario for BDP 2100 by Dr. Md.
Taibur Rahman

4.
Investment and Implementation Plan
Formulation of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100
Monitoring & Evaluation of the BDP 2100
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Current Policy
Situation
Sectoral status
Drivers & Problems
Integrated Analysis
Finalization of
Baseline Studies
Formulation of Delta
Vision
Development of
Assessment Framework
Scenario Development
Analysis of Strategies
Preferred Strategies
Governance
and Legal Framework
Institutional Development
& Capacity Building
Preparation of
Sectoral & Regional
Arrangements
Dissemination
Financial Mechanisms
ADAPTIVE STRATEGIESBASELINE STUDIES DELTA FRAMEWORK
7th
Five
Year
Plan
Scenario for BDP 2100 by Dr. Md. Taibur
Rahman

5.
Bangladesh Delta Scenario: Introduction
• A tool for policy makers to make robust, adaptive and
integrated strategies
• Describe uncertain futures and identify potential impacts
that have an important influence on the success or failure of
a given strategy or measure
• Evaluate the effectiveness of measures and strategies for
each scenario, which helps decision makers to prioritize their
choices
• Strategies selection made easier for various possible
outcomes even for ‘extreme edges’
Scenario for BDP 2100 by Dr. Md. Taibur Rahman

6.
• Data from UN, IPCC and baseline studies utilized
• Extensive stakeholder consultation
• Building blocks developed in workshop at GED (Feb 2015)
• Substantiated through input from experts and validation workshops
• Scenarios quantification based on:
– Climate change model analysis
– Current and historic trend analysis
– Benchmarking with comparable economies
• Scenarios represent possible ‘Business as usual’ developments
(continuation of current policies)
• Well suited to evaluate and assess investments options as part of 5-
year planning process
Scenario for BDP 2100 by Dr. Md. Taibur
Rahman

7.
Bangladesh Delta Scenarios
7Copyright Bandudeltas - 2014
Diversified Economy
(high per capita growth)
Traditional Economy
(low per capita growth)
stable water conditions
(limited climate
change and upstream
developments)
Extreme water conditions
(extensive climate
change and
upstream developments)
Productive
Congestion
Resilient
Stagnation
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

8.
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR.
MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

9.
Key Drivers :Upstream water development
Productive Resilient
• Very high economic growth
• Moderate climate change
• Strongly globalized and diversified economy with many shared
interests between riparian countries
• Low to moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to
medium in the medium term (2030) and high in the long term
(2050 – 2100)
• Extensive data sharing and joint (water) knowledge
development
• Trans-boundary agreements for main and regional rivers
• Joint water development projects in upstream catchments
• High economic growth
• High climate change
• Moderately diversified economy, strong agri-sector, moderate
shared interests between riparian countries
• Moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to medium in
the medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 – 2100)
• Extensive data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development
• Trans-boundary agreements for main rivers
• Joint water development projects in upstream catchments
Congestion Stagnation
• Low but stable economic growth
• Moderate climate change
• Closed economy with little diversified - shared interests between riparian
countries
• Moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to medium in the
medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 – 2100)
• Little to medium data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development
• Extension of Ganges treaty only
• Low and decreasing economic growth
• High climate change
• Closed economy with little diversified - shared interests between riparian
countries
• Moderate to high increase in upstream abstraction from medium in the medium
term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 – 2100)
• Little data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development
• Extension of Ganges treaty only
Key characteristics of upstream abstractions for each scenario
ResilientProductive
Congestion Stagnation
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

10.
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

11.
Key Drivers: Economic Structure, International Markets
and Technology Developments
Key issues are:
•Globalization and development of trade
•Human capital development (investments)
•Global market of manufactured products of Bangladesh
•Level and driver of industrial development
•Economic transformation
•Investments in infrastructure
•Digital and agricultural technology
•Modernization of agricultural sector
•Impact of cross-border trade
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

12.
Key Drivers: Demographics, Urbanization, Land Use Changes
Main issues are:
•Population growth and composition
•Land use changes
•Level of unplanned urbanization
•Decrease of agricultural land
•Emergence of ‘high input, high investment, high return’
agriculture (flowers, strawberries, broccoli etc) as compared to
low input low risk types of agriculture
•Food security, livelihoods and poverty
•Access to education
•Change in consumption patterns of Bangladesh
•Equality – e.g. differences between rich and poor
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

13.
Key Drivers : Others
• Governance and political situation
• Environment
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

14.
Key socio economic indicators
14Copyright Bandudeltas - 2014
Population
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population(Millions)
Year
productive resilient
Congestion stagnation
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

15.
GDP Per Capita
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

16.
Land Use Selected Land Use types over time
Contd…SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

17.
Selected Land Use types over time
Land Use
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

18.
BDP2100 Delta Scenarios
Summary narratives scenarios BDP2100SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

19.
Scenario 1 Productive – Market Driven Delta
• Moderate climate change
• upstream collaboration
• Market-driven economy,
• focus on rapid economic growth,
• private investments,
• rapid technological advancement,
• modernization of the agricultural sector,
• Rice replaced by higher value crops
• rapid urbanization distributed across the country
• Large pressures on the environment due rapid market driven
development
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

20.
Socio-Economic
Developments
Climate Change
Peak Discharge Upstream Abstraction
Scenario 1 Productive Delta
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

21.
Scenario 2 Resilient - Dynamic Delta
• Rapid climate change
• Limited international collaboration
• sustainable economic growth,
• reduction of inequality,
• Vulnerable nature
• modernization of agricultural through cooperatives
• water guides and limits development
• fast urbanisation and increased rural-urban connectivity
• technological change aimed at sustainable agricultural production
• emergence of agri-business hubs
• Reducing pressure on environment due to sustainable development
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

22.
Socio-Economic
Developments
Climate Change
Peak Discharge Upstream Abstraction
Scenario 2 Resilient Delta
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

23.
Scenario 3 Congestion- Delta Under Pressure
• Moderate climate change
• Now new upstream developments
• Traditional growth with focus on low-value production,
• Continuation of small scale rice-based farming
• limited technological diffusion
• central economy and top-down regulation,
• high inequality and growing wealthy elite,
• water follows development,
• fast growing Dhaka & Chittagong with urban sprawl
• Pressure on environment due to uncontrolled urban expansion
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

24.
Socio-Economic
Developments
Climate Change
Peak Discharge Upstream Abstraction
Scenario 3 Congestion Delta
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

25.
Scenario 4 Stagnation Delta- Basic Needs First
• Rapid climate change
• Increase in hydrological extremes
• more frequent and intense cyclones
• Traditional growth with focus on low-value
production
• Focus on subsistence rice based farming
• fast growing population
• slow technological change
• high urban and rural poverty
• Limited international collaboration,
increased upstream extractions
• Increasing pressure on the environment due
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

26.
Socio-Economic
Developments
Climate Change
Peak Discharge Upstream Abstraction
Scenario 4 Stagnation Delta
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

27.
Summary Overview Scenarios
Socio-Economic
Developments
Climate Change
Peak Discharge Upstream Abstraction
Land Use Development
Population Development
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

28.
Steps
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

29.
Assessment of Water Related Implications
Productive Resilient Congestion Stagnation
Ability to invest
in adaptation
($)
$$$$ - very high GDP growth, ample
economic means
$$$ - high GDP growth, adequate economic
means
$$ - low GDP growth, limited
economic means
$- very low GDP growth, severely
limited economic means
Floodrisk
Economic
damage risk
High: high economic asset values / very
high GDP growth, moderate CC
Very high: high economic value / high GDP
growth, high CC
Moderate: moderate
economic value / low GDP
growth, moderate CC
Moderate: moderate economic value /
low GDP growth, high CC
Rural
population (and
their livelihood)
at risk
Low: good connectivity and rapid
development of rural areas (incl. chars),
improved gender distribution and lower
poverty level, moderate CC
Moderate: good connectivity and rapid
development of rural areas (incl. chars),
improved gender distribution and lower
poverty level, high CC
High; rural isolation (incl.
chars), no improvement in
gender distribution and lower
poverty level, moderate CC.
Post flood impacts severe
Very high; rural isolation (incl. chars) &
bad housing, no improvement in gender
distribution and lower poverty level,
high CC. Severe post flood impacts
Urban
population (and
their livelihood)
at risk
Low: very high GDP growth, high
urbanisation level and better housing, low
unemployment, moderate CC
Low: high GDP growth, low urbanization level
and better housing, low unemployment, high
CC
High: high number of informal
housing, high urbanisation
level, high inequality, high
unemployment, moderate CC
Very high: high number of informal
housing, high urbanisation level, high
inequality, high unemployment, high CC
Critical infra &
objects (e.g.
roads, power
supply,
sanitation, ICT,
schools,
hospitals) at risk
Moderate: critically important
infrastructure and objects in flood-prone
areas at highest experienced flood/storm-
surge level, moderate CC
High: critically important infrastructure and
objects in flood-prone areas at highest
experienced flood/storm-surge level,
unexpected depths and areas larger through
high CC
Low: underdeveloped
infrastructure and objects in
flood-prone areas at highest
experienced flood/storm-
surge level, moderate CC
Moderate: underdeveloped
infrastructure and objects in flood-
prone areas at highest experienced
flood/storm-surge level, unexpected
depths and areas larger through high CC
Watersecurity
Rural Water
security
Low: Agricultural water demand will stabilise
due to the cultivation of higher value crops and
stabilising boro rice cultivation. This in
combination with relatively high availability will
result in moderate scarcity. The need for reliable
(timely, adequate) water supply increases
notably
High: Although the modernization of agriculture will
over time reduce the demand, the reduction in dry
season supply and increased saline intrusion will
result in higher water stress
Moderate: Water demands will
be high under this scenario due
to continued demand for
irrigated boro rice and the need
for food self-sufficiency. Due to
continued supply water stress
will be moderate
Very high: Extensive salt water
intrusion, frequent drought and
high demand due to continuation
of rice production leads to growing
and severe water stress
Urban water
security
Moderate: Urban water demands will rapidly
expand due to increased urbanization and rapid
industrial expansion. Due to reduced
competition with agriculture, moderate CC and
low upstream abstraction, urban water stress
will stabilize. Water quality will become
increasingly limiting for industrial and domestic
use
Low: Urban water demand will rapidly increase. It will
be difficult to meet these needs especially in the dry
season due to frequent droughts and high upstream
water abstractions. In the wet season supply will
become difficult due to floods and extreme weather
events. Growing IW Transport sector severely
constrained due to low water levels
Moderate: Demand will be
moderate due to low economic
and urban growth although
population growth will be high.
Deteriorating water quality will
limit water use for domestic,
agricultural and industrial use
Very low: Unabated water
pollution and poor w water quality,
in combination with frequent
droughts, population increase and
salt water intrusion cause severe
urban water stress. Stress is
mitigated due to low urbanization
and industrialization rates
Environment
al pressures
Moderate to High: Due to rapid market driven
economic development, environmental
pressures will initially increase. In the long run,
a richer population will demand environmental
protection and the economic growth will allow
investment in water treatment, reuse and water
saving technologies and place a higher value on
ecosystems preservation. Good cooperation
with upstream neighbours will enhance water
quality improvement upstream
High: Due to rapid market driven economic
development, environment pressures will continue to
increase. CC and high upstream abstraction
exacerbate these pressures leading to water quality
concerns; with saline intrusion as key factor The lower
number of people will slightly mitigate this pressure.
In the long run, a richer population will demand
environmental protection; Economic growth will allow
investment in water treatment, reuse and water
saving technologies and place a higher value on
ecosystems preservation. Good cooperation with
upstream neighbours will enhance water quality
High due to continued
unsustainable water
management, and food self-
sufficiency, wetlands, rivers and
coastal areas will come under
increasing pressure. There is
little scope for investments in
environmental technologies and
development
Very high The high number of
people in combination with high CC
and high upstream water
abstraction will result in very low
water quality especially in the dry
season. The lack of public and
private funding along with limited
riparian collaboration lead to very
high environmental pressures
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

30.
Conclusion
• Four distinctive Bangladesh Delta scenarios have been developed
with the aim to offer four different, plausible stories of possible
future directions important for future water management
• In the current phase of the BDP2100, the proposed measures and
strategies are assessed against different future outcomes
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

31.
www.bandudeltas.org
Road # 83, House # 13/A , NE(K), Level 5
Gulshan-2, Dhaka-1212, Bangladesh
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

32.
Productive Scenario 2015
(reference)
2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Population Million inhabitants 169 175 185 194 200 165
Urbanization Urban inhabitants (%) 28 38 49 58 70 85
GDP Growth
Average annual real GDP growth rates
(%)
6.3 7.7 8.0 7.5 6.8 3.0
GDP per capita Constant prices of 2010 ($) 820 1,147 2,322 4,606 8,707 58,000
Agricultural sector share
GDP contribution agricultural sector
(%)
16 15 12 10 8 5
Agriculture employment share
% of people employed in agriculture
sector
47 40 30 25 20 5
Poverty
Poverty headcount ratio at $2.00 a day
(PPP) (%)
Reference year: 2010
76 55 40 25 10 0
Total freight transport bln ton-km 36 52 111 232 452 2,483
Inland waterway freight
transport
bln ton-km 5 8 23 53 108 695
Inland waterway freight
transport
Modal share (%) 14 15 21 23 24 28
Land use developments
2010
(reference)
2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Agriculture land % surface area 60 -- -- -- - 0
Urban / industrial land % surface area 3 ++ ++ ++ ++ +
Rural settlements % surface area 12 -- -- -- -- --
Mangrove / forests % surface area 10 -- - - 0 +
Quantification of Socio-Economic Developments - Productive Scenario
Source: 2015 data: Baseline reports of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, World Bank, CIA world Factbook. Scenario data derived from socio-economic and transportation
baseline studies of BDP2100, UN population projections, IMF projections and Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (IPCC)
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

33.
Climate change Productive scenario 2015
(reference) 2030 2040 2050 2100
Sea level rise Mean sea level rise in cm 7100 10-20 15-25 20-30 40-60
Temperature
Mean max temperature
degrees change (˚C)
25 +0.5 +0.75 +1 +2
Monsoon rainfall
% change mean total
monsoon (June-September)
precipitation
1750 0 5 10 15
Dry season rainfall
% change mean total dry
season (December-February)
precipitation
36 0 0 0 0
Longest dry day period
Increase of mean number of
consecutive dry days
0 0 0 +5
Rainfall intensity
% change of mean total
precipitation
10 10 10 20
Cyclone intensity % change 25 45 90
Climate change - Productive Scenario
Source: Unnikrishnan and Shankar (2007), Hinkel et al. 2014 (IPCC, AR5), BMD, EU-Watch/Combine 2013/climate change baseline, IPCC 2013
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

34.
Peak discharges - Productive Scenario
Peak Discharges Productive Scenario 2015
(reference
, m3/s)
2030 2040 2050 2100
Ganges
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Hardinge Bridge
51 130 15 20 30
Brahmaputra
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Bahadurabad
67 490 5 10 15
Meghna
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Bhairab bazar
13 370 5 10 15
Source: BWDB (Yu et al. 2010), ISI-MIP & VIC (van Vliet and Ludwig, 2013) SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

35.
Upstream Abstractions Productive Scenario 2015
(reference,
m3/s)
2030 2050 2100
Ganges
Change Average dry
season flow
% change (minus) at
Hardinge Bridge
NA
controlled by Ganges
Water Treaty
Average dry season
flow
m3/s at Hardinge Bridge 750
controlled by Ganges
Water Treaty
Brahmaputra
Change Average dry
season flow
% change (minus) at
Bahadurabad
3 000 -5% -15% -30%
Average dry season
flow Brahmaputra
m3/s at Bahadurabad 3 000 2 850 2 550 2 100
Upstream abstractions - Productive Scenario
Source for Reference values: IWM, BWDB
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

36.
Resilient Scenario 2015
(reference)
2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Population Million inhabitants 169 171 175 174 170 125
Urbanization Urban inhabitants (%) 34 38 45 54 60 75
GDP Growth
Average annual real GDP growth
rates (%)
6.3 6.4 6.5 5.8 5.0 2.5
GDP per capita Constant prices of 2010 ($) 820 1,105 2,008 3,469 5,723 30,000
Agricultural sector share
GDP contribution agricultural sector
(%)
16 15 13 12 10 8
Agriculture employment
share
% of people employed in agriculture
sector
47 42 35 30 25 10
Poverty
Poverty headcount ratio at $2.00 a
day (PPP) (%) Reference year: 2010
76 60 45 30 20 2
Total freight transport bln ton-km 36 49 91 160 267 973
Inland waterway freight
transport
bln ton-km 5 7 16 30 53 243
Inland waterway freight
transport
Modal share (%) 14 14 18 19 20 25
Land use developments
2010
(reference)
2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Agriculture land % surface area 60 - - - 0 +
Urban / industrial land % surface area 3 + + + + +
Rural settlements % surface area 12 - - - - --
Mangrove / forests % surface area 10 - - 0 + +
Quantification Socio-Economic Developments - Resilient Scenario
Source: 2015 data: Baseline reports of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, World Bank, CIA world Factbook. Scenario data derived from socio-economic and
transportation baseline studies of BDP2100, UN population projections, IMF projections and Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (IPCC)
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

37.
Climate change Resilient scenario 2015
(reference) 2030 2040 2050 2100
Sea level rise Mean sea level rise in cm 15-30 30-40 40-60 80-125
Temperature
Mean max temperature
degrees change (˚C)
25 +1.5 +1.75 +2 +4
Monsoon rainfall
% change mean total
monsoon (June-September)
precipitation
1750 15 18 20 40
Dry season rainfall
% change mean total dry
season (December-
February) precipitation
36 -10 -10 -10 -20
Longest dry day period
Increase of mean number
of consecutive dry days
+5 +8 +10 +20
Rainfall intensity
% change of mean total
precipitation
20 20 20 50
Cyclone intensity % change 70 90 100
Climate change - Resilient Scenario
Source: Unnikrishnan and Shankar (2007), Hinkel et al. 2014 (IPCC, AR5), BMD, EU-Watch/Combine 2013/climate change baseline, IPCC 2013
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

38.
Peak discharges - resilient scenario
Peak Discharges Resilience Scenario 2015
(reference, m3/s)
2030 2040 2050 2100
Ganges
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Hardinge Bridge
51 130 30 40 70
Brahmaputra
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Bahadurabad
67 490 15 20 30
Meghna
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Bhairab bazar
13 370 15 20 30
Source: BWDB (Yu et al. 2010), ISI-MIP & VIC (van Vliet and Ludwig, 2013)
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

39.
Upstream Abstractions Resilient Scenario 2015
(reference,
m3/s)
2030 2050 2100
Ganges
Change Average dry
season flow
% change (minus) at
Hardinge Bridge
750
controlled by Ganges Water
Treaty
Average dry season flow m3/s at Hardinge Bridge 750
controlled by Ganges Water
Treaty
Brahmaputra
Change Average dry
season flow
% change (minus) at
Bahadurabad
3000 -15% -30% -50%
Average dry season flow
Brahmaputra
m3/s at Bahadurabad 3000 2550 2100 1500
Upstream abstractions - resilient scenario
Source references values: IWM, BWDB
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

40.
Congestion Scenario 2015
(reference)
2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Population Million inhabitants 169 177 188 200 210 190
Urbanization Urban inhabitants (%) 34 35 40 46 52 70
GDP Growth
Average annual real GDP growth
rates (%)
6.3 6.0 5.0 4.5 4.0 1.5
GDP per capita Constant prices of 2010 ($) 820 1048 1685 2519 3585 12000
Agricultural sector share
GDP contribution agricultural sector
(%)
16 16 15 14 13 10
Agriculture employment
share
% of people employed in agriculture
sector
47 47 46 45 45 35
Poverty
Poverty headcount ratio at $2.00 a
day (PPP) (%)
Reference year: 2010
76 65 55 50 40 10
Total freight transport bln ton-km 36 48 82 131 195 590
Inland waterway freight
transport
bln ton-km 5 6 11 20 31 112
Inland waterway freight
transport
Modal share (%) 14 11 10 10 11 12
Land use developments
2010
(reference)
2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Agriculture land % surface area 60 - - - - -
Urban / industrial land % surface area 3 + + + + +
Rural settlements % surface area 12 + + + + -
Mangrove / forests % surface area 10 -- -- -- -- -
Quantification Socio-Economic Developments - Congestion Scenario
Source: 2015 data: Baseline reports of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, World Bank, CIA world Factbook. Scenario data derived from socio-economic and
transportation baseline studies of BDP2100, UN population projections, IMF projections and Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (IPCC)SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

41.
Climate change Congestion scenario 2015
(reference) 2030 2040 2050 2100
Sea level rise Mean sea level rise in cm 7100 10-20 15-25 20-30 40-60
Temperature
Mean max temperature degrees
change (˚C)
25 +0.5 +0.75 +1 +2
Monsoon rainfall
% change mean total monsoon
(June-September) precipitation
1750 0 5 10 15
Dry season rainfall
% change mean total dry season
(December-February)
precipitation
36 0 0 0 0
Longest dry day period Increase of mean number of
consecutive dry days
0 0 0 +5
Rainfall intensity % change of mean total
precipitation
10 10 10 20
Cyclone intensity % change 25 45 90
Climate Change - Congestion Scenario
Source: Unnikrishnan and Shankar (2007), Hinkel et al. 2014 (IPCC, AR5), BMD, EU-
Watch/Combine 2013/climate change baseline, IPCC 2013
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

42.
Peak Discharges Congestion Scenario 2015
(reference,
m3/s)
2030 2040 2050 2100
Ganges
Peak discharge
% change of mean annual
maximum at Hardinge
Bridge
51 130 15 18 20 30
Brahmaputra
Peak discharge % change of mean annual
maximum at Bahadurabad
67 490 5 10 15
Meghna
Peak discharge
% change of mean annual
maximum at Bhairab
bazar
13 370 5 10 15
Peak Discharges - Congestion Scenario
Source: BWDB (Yu et al. 2010), ISI-MIP & VIC (van Vliet and Ludwig, 2013)
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

43.
Upstream Abstractions Congestion Scenario 2015
(reference,
m3/s)
2030 2050 2100
Ganges
Change Average dry
season flow
% change (minus) at
Hardinge Bridge
750
controlled by Ganges Water
Treaty
Average dry season flow m3/s at Hardinge Bridge 750
controlled by Ganges Water
Treaty
Brahmaputra
Change Average dry
season flow
% change (minus) at
Bahadurabad
3000 -10% -25% -40%
Average dry season flow
Brahmaputra
m3/s at Bahadurabad 3000 2700 2250 1800
Upstream Abstractions - Congestion Scenario
Source reference values: IWM, BWDB
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

44.
Stagnation Scenario 2015
(reference)
2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Population Million inhabitants 169 180 197 217 230 260
Urbanization Urban inhabitants (%) 34 35 39 44 48 60
GDP Growth
Average annual real GDP growth
rates (%)
6.3 4.9 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.0
GDP per capita Constant prices of 2010 ($) 820 978 1 323 1 611 1 893 4 506
Agricultural sector share
GDP contribution agricultural sector
(%)
16 16 16 15 15 14
Agriculture employment
share
% of people employed in agriculture
sector
47 48 50 50 47 40
Poverty
Poverty headcount ratio at $2.00 a
day (PPP) (%)
Reference year: 2010
76 70 65 60 50 20
Total freight transport bln ton-km 36 46 68 91 113 304
Inland waterway freight
transport
bln ton-km 5 5 7 9 12 36
Inland waterway freight
transport
Modal share (%) 14 11 10 10 11 12
Land use developments 2010 (reference) 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Agriculture land % surface area 60 -- -- -- -- --
Urban / industrial land % surface area 3 + + + + +
Rural settlements % surface area 12 ++ ++ ++ ++ ++
Mangrove / forests % surface area 10 -- -- -- -- -
Quantification Socio-Economic Developments - Stagnation Scenario
Source: 2015 data: Baseline reports of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, World Bank, CIA world Factbook. Scenario data derived from socio-economic and transportation
baseline studies of BDP2100, UN population projections, IMF projections and Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (IPCC)
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

45.
Climate change Stagnation scenario 2015
(reference)
2030 2040 2050 2100
Sea level rise Mean sea level rise in cm 7100 15-30 30-40 40-60 80-125
Temperature
Mean max temperature
degrees change (˚C)
25 +1.5 +1.75 +2 +4
Monsoon rainfall
% change mean total monsoon
(June-September) precipitation
1750 15 18 20 40
Dry season rainfall
% change mean total dry
season (December-February)
precipitation
36 -10 -10 -10 -20
Longest dry day period Increase of mean number of
consecutive dry days
+5 +8 +10 +20
Rainfall intensity % change of mean total
precipitation
20 20 20 50
Cyclone intensity % change 70 90 100
Climate Change - Stagnation Scenario
Source: Unnikrishnan and Shankar (2007), Hinkel et al. 2014 (IPCC, AR5), BMD, EU-
Watch/Combine 2013/climate change baseline, IPCC 2013
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

46.
Peak Discharges Stagnation Scenario 2015
(reference, m3/s)
2030 2040 2050 2100
Ganges
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Hardinge Bridge
51 130 30 40 70
Brahmaputra
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Bahadurabad
67 490 15 20 30
Meghna
Peak discharge
% change of mean
annual maximum at
Bhairab bazar
13 370 15 20 30
Peak Discharges - Stagnation Scenario
Source: BWDB (Yu et al. 2010), ISI-MIP & VIC (van Vliet and Ludwig, 2013) SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

47.
Upstream Abstractions Stagnation Scenario 2015
(reference,
m3/s)
2030 2050 2100
Ganges
Change Average dry season
flow
% change (minus) at Hardinge
Bridge
750 controlled by Ganges Water Treaty
Average dry season flow m3/s at Hardinge Bridge 750 controlled by Ganges Water Treaty
Brahmaputra
Change Average dry season
flow
% change (minus) at
Bahadurabad
3 000 -20% -40% -60%
Average dry season flow
Brahmaputra
m3/s at Bahadurabad 3 000 2400 1800 1200
Upstream Abstractions - Stagnation Scenario
Source reference values: IWM, BWDB SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

48.
Quantification Socio-Economic Developments- All Scenarios
Source: 2015 data: Baseline reports of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, World Bank, CIA world Factbook. Scenario data derived from socio-economic and transportation baseline studies of
BDP2100, UN population projections, IMF projections and Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (IPCC)
Socio-economic developments 2015
(reference)
2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Population
Million inhabitants
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
169
169
169
169
175
171
173
174
185
175
188
197
194
174
200
217
200
170
210
230
165
125
190
260
Urbanization
urban inhabitants (%)
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
34
34
34
34
38
38
35
35
49
45
40
39
58
54
46
44
70
60
52
48
85
75
70
60
GDP Growth
Average annual real GDP growth rates (%)
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.3
7.7
6.4
6.0
4.9
8.0
6.5
5.0
4.0
7.5
5.8
4.5
3.0
6.8
5.0
4.0
2.0
3.0
2.5
1.5
2.0
GDP per capita
Constant prices of 2010 ($)
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
820
820
820
820
1147
1105
1048
978
2322
2008
1685
1323
4606
3469
2519
1611
8707
5723
3585
1893
58000
30000
12000
4500
Agricultural share GDP
GDP contribution agricultural sector (%)
Reference year: 2014
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
16
16
16
16
15
15
16
16
12
13
15
16
10
12
14
15
8
10
13
15
5
8
10
14
Agriculture employment share
% of people employed in agriculture sector
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
47
47
47
47
40
42
47
48
30
35
46
50
25
30
45
50
20
25
45
47
5
10
35
40
Continued
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

49.
Quantification Land Use Developments- All Scenarios
Land use developments 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
Agriculture land
% surface area
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
60
60
60
60
--
-
-
--
--
-
-
--
--
-
-
--
-
0
-
--
0
+
-
--
Urban / industrial land
% surface area
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
3
3
3
3
++
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Rural settlements
% surface area
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
12
12
12
12
--
-
+
++
--
-
+
++
--
-
+
++
--
-
+
++
--
--
-
++
Mangrove / forests
% surface area
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
10
10
10
10
--
-
--
--
-
-
--
--
-
0
--
--
0
+
--
--
+
+
-
-
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

50.
Population Developments - All Scenarios
GDP per capita development until 2050 - all scenarios
Continued
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

51.
Climate change 2015
(reference)
2030 2040 2050 2100
Sea level rise
Mean sea level rise in cm
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
7100
7100
7100
7100
10-20
15-30
10-20
15-30
15-25
30-40
15-25
30-40
20-30
40-60
20-30
40-60
40-60
80-125
40-60
80-125
Temperature
Mean max temperature degrees change (˚C)
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
25
25
25
25
+0.5
+1.5
+0.5
+1.5
+0.75
+1.75
+0.75
+1.75
+1
+2
+1
+2
+2
+4
+2
+4
Monsoon rainfall
% change mean total monsoon (June-
September) precipitation
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
1750
1750
1750
1750
0
15
0
20
5
18
5
18
10
20
10
20
15
40
15
40
Dry season rainfall
% change mean total dry season
(December-February) precipitation
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
36
36
36
36
0
-10
0
-10
0
-10
0
-10
0
-10
0
-10
0
-20
0
-20
Longest dry day period
Increase of mean number of consecutive
dry days
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
0
+5
0
+5
0
+8
0
+8
0
+10
0
+10
+5
+20
+5
+20
Rainfall intensity
% change of mean total precipitation
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
10
20
10
20
10
20
10
20
10
20
10
20
20
50
20
50
Cyclone intensity
% change
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
?
?
?
?
25
70
25
70
45
90
45
90
90
100
90
100
Source: Unnikrishnan and Shankar (2007), Hinkel et al. 2014 (IPCC, AR5), BMD, EU-Watch/Combine 2013/climate change baseline, IPCC 2013
Quantification of Climate change - All Scenario
Continued
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

52.
Peak Discharges Scenario 2015
(reference, m3/s)
2030 2050 2100
Ganges
Peak discharge
% change of mean annual maximum at
Hardinge Bridge
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
51130
51130
51130
51130
15
30
15
30
20
40
20
40
30
70
30
70
Brahmaputra
Peak discharge
% change of mean annual maximum at
Bahadurabad
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
67490
67490
67490
67490
5
15
5
15
10
20
10
20
15
30
15
30
Meghna
Peak discharge
% change of mean annual maximum at
Bhairab bazar
Productive
Resilient
Congestion
Stagnation
13370
13370
13370
13370
5
15
5
15
10
20
10
20
15
30
15
30
Quantification Peak Discharges - All Scenarios
Source: BWDB (Yu et al. 2010), ISI-MIP & VIC (van Vliet and Ludwig, 2013)
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

53.
Upstream Abstractions Scenario 2015
(reference, m3/s)
2030 2050 2100
Ganges
Change Average dry season flow
% change (minus) at Hardinge Bridge
Productive 750
controlled by Ganges Water
Treaty
Resilient 750
Congestion 750
Stagnation 750
Average dry season flow
m3/s at Hardinge Bridge
Productive 750
controlled by Ganges Water
Treaty
Resilient 750
Congestion 750
Stagnation 750
Brahmaputra
Change Average dry season flow
% change (minus) at Bahadurabad
Productive 3000 -5% -15% -30%
Resilient 3000 -15% -30% -50%
Congestion 3000 -10% -25% -40%
Stagnation 3000 -20% -40% -60%
Average dry season flow Brahmaputra
m3/s at Bahadurabad
Productive 3000 2850 2550 2100
Resilient 3000 2550 2100 1500
Congestion 3000 2700 2250 1800
Stagnation 3000 2400 1800 1200
Upstream Abstractions - All Scenarios
Source reference values: IWM, BWDB
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

54.
• Very high economic growth
• Moderate climate change
• Strongly globalized and diversified economy with many shared
interests between riparian countries
• Low to moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to
medium in the medium term (2030) and high in the long term
(2050 – 2100)
• Extensive data sharing and joint (water) knowledge
development
• Trans-boundary agreements for main and regional rivers
• Joint water development projects in upstream catchments
PRODUCTIVE
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

55.
• High economic growth
• High climate change
• Moderately diversified economy, strong agri-sector, moderate
shared interests between riparian countries
• Moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to medium
in the medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 –
2100)
• Extensive data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development
• Trans-boundary agreements for main rivers
• Joint water development projects in upstream catchments
RESILIENT
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

56.
• Low but stable economic growth
• Moderate climate change
• Closed economy with little diversified - shared interests between
riparian countries
• Moderate increase in upstream abstraction from low to medium
in the medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 –
2100)
• Little to medium data sharing and joint (water) knowledge
development
• Extension of Ganges treaty only
CONGESTION
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

57.
• Low and decreasing economic growth
• High climate change
• Closed economy with little diversified - shared interests between
riparian countries
• Moderate to high increase in upstream abstraction from medium in
the medium term (2030) and high in the long term (2050 – 2100)
• Little data sharing and joint (water) knowledge development
• Extension of Ganges treaty only
STAGNATION
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN

58.
Scenario Planning Process
Copyright Bandudeltas - 201
Approach towards BDP scenarios
SCENARIO FOR BDP 2100 BY DR. MD. TAIBUR RAHMAN