1. How Schools Cheat at KS4
Why is it wrong and what can we do about it?
2. The language of cheating
• The language is purposely emotive – when schools cheat it is not in the
spirit of the education system and it only helps those schools manipulating
the system
• To be politically correct we could suggest “manipulating the system” or
“acting in the students best interests” – but let’s call it out for what it is
• It devalues the profession and subjects
• This is likely something that has always happened and not a new
phenomenon brought about with financial pressures or performance
tables
• Many educators don’t see any of this as cheating
• There is a principle that most believe a school should be teaching the
subjects they gain credit for – this is the “added value”
4. Why do schools cheat?
• It’s complicated and interlinked!
• Short cuts to turnaround schools – e.g. superheads brought in to improve the school
performance
• Competition – nationally and locally (both for students and prestige of teachers and
MAT)
• Politically it also suits local areas for their schools to be “the best” as this makes the
area more prestigious and attractive – pressure to perform from various areas should
not be underestimated
• Performance related pay – subject, school level and MAT
• Impact on personal outcomes – for example, OFSTED inspection and perceived focus
on attainment
• Because the system allows it – for example, how progress 8 is calculated based on
KS2 outcomes
• Because other schools do it
• Because you cannot be caught or reprimanded
5. What is the impact of cheating?
• Makes it harder for everyone else – exacerbates the problem
• Bastardises the supposed level playing field of progress 8
• Even though this is not really level as P8 does not take into account the student background
• Creates the argument that schools are wasting resources and money – for example “why
is this school saying they have no money yet teaching and entering a single student for
astronomy?”
• Gives a false impression regarding performance of certain types of student and schools –
for example, schools that are perceived to be “better” at teaching than others are
actually not
• Impacts students directly affected by the strategies
• Impacts school finances – for example, each subject carries a cost (cost of
teaching/entry) and could this money be better spent on maximising core subject
attainment instead of trying to manipulate the system?
• Devalues the profession
6. What is the scale of cheating?
• We don’t know exactly but most schools do not “cheat”
• If we understand the strategies we can examine school level/cohort
level data to identify schools that might be cheating
• It’s difficult to accuse directly – for example, if a student has been
entered for a “niche” language then do we expect it should have been
taught in school?
• We can examine the subject entry rates to identify schools likely to be
cheating
7. How do schools cheat?
• Most Severe
• Illegal Off-rolling/Exclusions
• Niche subjects entered but not taught (ESOL, astronomy, Polish etc) – taking advantage of pupil characteristics for school gain
• If a language then this fulfils the EBACC criteria
• Frees up time for other subjects and focus on English, Maths and Sciences
• Whole school entry for “easier” subjects – business studies for example
• Manipulation of entry cohort – languages and religious studies
• Not entering students just before the exam – depends on the student and their attainment buckets as any score is better than zero (not tackled
in this document due to lack of evidence)
• Least Severe
• Split English Language and Literature – early entry for language
• Run two year courses over three years – although this is commonplace
• Not cheating but has an influence
• Use vocational subjects – These subjects are equal to a GCSE but have a heavy element of coursework/school assessment. Usually, students
perform much better than you would expect due to the school marked elements (this may or may not be cheating but could be some form of
unconscious bias)
• Restrict subject choice (sometimes depending on the KS2 aptitude) – common examples include
• Humanities – school only offering Geography instead of History but also includes religious studies
• Languages – school only offering a single language that is taught from year 7 through to year 11
8. What does this mean for parents? (where schools use
these techniques)
• More focus on Maths, English and Sciences
• Limitation of subject choice for humanities – no exposure to other humanities
• Limitation of subject choice for languages – no exposure to other languages in
KS3
• Forced vocational route for art, music, drama, dance – typically at year 9 – risk
that schools make music (or similar) compulsory from year 7?
• A narrow curriculum
• Are parents aware of these curriculum choices and/or should they be consulted?
(via Governing bodies) – Schools should make it clear via handbooks/collateral
regarding the ethos and choices available
• Some parents have no/little choice in school due to location – Is it fair to them
and their children to have these restrictions placed on them? (Regardless of the
clear benefits in the core subjects achievement?)
9. What are the counter-arguments?
• Off-rolling/Exclusions are in the best interest of the student and the greater good
• Wide and balanced curriculum – Offering niche subjects supports the Ofsted view of a wide and balanced curriculum
• Additional qualifications for students helps their outcomes
• “Free” qualifications – “you already speak fluent Italian so lets enter you for the GCSE – you don’t need to study French then”
• The qualification fits in with the whole school ethos
• Restricting subject choice/entry helps the student to focus on other subjects
• Choosing an easier subject/type of qualification is better for the teacher and the student
• BTEC’s/Vocational Subjects are as robust as GCSE’s
• We are not entering you for “X” exam because it is unlikely you will achieve a 6 and you can spend time on other subjects
• Schools have always maximised their intake – generally favouring the schools which have the wealthiest students and highest
parental education – what’s so wrong about this?
• Smaller schools have to make difficult choices regarding resources and curriculum. Larger schools can provide a broader
curriculum tailored more specifically for student interests and abilities
11. Pupil Movement (Note that 2019 outcome data used for this section)
• School census data used to track numbers between 2017 and 2019
• From year 9 to year 11
• Some schools with significant movement +100 students moved
between 9 and 11
• Some schools with significant gains – some UTC’s
• Pupils move for a number of reasons
• Offrolling or Exclusion
• Move address
• Choose to move schools
• Schools can benefit from being the recipient of the student, moving
off roll or can be disadvantaged by a student arrival/leaving
• Most schools lose pupils
• Rate linked with FSM – higher FSM = more pupils lost but this
highest rate is for schools between 51% and 61% FSM
• Lower P8 schools receive/gain students in years 9/10/11
• Low FSM and retention of students associated with higher P8
• Some schools have lost more students than similar other schools
and achieved high P8
• High EAL generally means fewer pupil movements
• Clear correlation between progress 8 and reduction of pupils
between years 9 and 11
• Schools with high SEN rates more susceptible but some schools have
uncharacteristically high rates
Average of 9 and 11 FSMEver
P8 (blank) 1.4-11.4 11.4-21.4 21.4-31.4 31.4-41.4 41.4-51.4 51.4-61.4 61.4-71.4 71.4-81.4 Grand Total
-2.4--2.15
-1.9--1.65
-1.65--1.4 7.00 -18.50 4.00 -6.50
-1.4--1.15 2.00 -5.00 -10.88 3.00 -6.14
-1.15--0.9 -3.00 1.00 -6.89 -2.71 -5.20 -4.40 -4.00 -4.04
-0.9--0.65 -11.00 -1.00 -7.28 -8.08 -6.65 -9.44 -4.86 -7.35
-0.65--0.4 2.50 -6.14 -7.49 -6.43 -8.14 -11.46 -7.45 -9.00 -7.52
-0.4--0.15 -4.11 -5.76 -6.18 -6.26 -7.51 -10.51 -5.12 2.50 -6.45
-0.15-0.1 -3.94 -5.35 -6.24 -6.85 -8.15 -7.03 -4.67 -8.00 -6.12
0.1-0.35 -3.42 -5.21 -5.99 -9.66 -7.26 -5.07 -4.80 -5.80
0.35-0.6 -2.73 -3.21 -4.50 -6.49 -1.90 -4.82 -6.75 -5.00 -3.72
0.6-0.85 -1.81 -7.02 -3.29 -3.34 -5.75 -1.00 -2.20 -3.76
0.85-1.1 -1.58 -14.21 -2.00 -0.43 -0.43 -12.25 -2.00 9.00 -4.14
1.1-1.35 -0.40 -3.25 -13.00 -2.57 -4.00 -3.35
1.35-1.6 -8.00 4.00 -5.00 -9.00 -4.50
1.6-1.85 -1.50 -1.50
2.1-2.35 0.00 0.00
Grand Total -2.70 -5.31 -6.07 -6.71 -6.64 -8.09 -5.24 -3.86 -5.73
Retention between 9 and 11 SEN
P8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 (blank) Grand Total
-1.65--1.4 0.79 1.03 0.98 0.95
-1.4--1.15 0.93 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.92 0.71 1.50 0.96
-1.15--0.9 1.04 0.95 1.49 0.93 0.95 1.00 0.90 1.11
-0.9--0.65 0.97 0.97 0.93 0.97 0.96 1.02 0.99 0.96
-0.65--0.4 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.94 0.95 0.89 0.97 0.97 0.96
-0.4--0.15 0.99 0.96 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.90 0.93 1.00 0.98 0.96
-0.15-0.1 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.92 0.94 0.91 0.89 0.97
0.1-0.35 0.97 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.95 0.98 0.95 1.02 0.97
0.35-0.6 1.00 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.95 0.95 0.99 0.93 1.14 0.98
0.6-0.85 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 1.02 0.93 0.98
0.85-1.1 1.00 0.99 0.96 0.98 0.99 0.98
1.1-1.35 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.94 0.99 0.98
1.35-1.6 0.96 0.96 1.00 0.98
1.6-1.85 0.97 0.97
2.1-2.35 1.00 1.00
Grand Total 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.98 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.91 1.04 1.12 0.97
12. KS2 vs EAL vs P8
• 2018 results
• Non special schools
• KS2 performance of EAL students
is not representative of
intelligence/ability
• Schools with high numbers of EAL
able to leverage low KS2 results &
other student factors (language,
specialist subjects)
• English & Maths still key due to
double weighting for P8
• Low EAL/Low KS2 schools
disadvantaged with no strategies
available apart from vocational
route – should focus on English
and Maths
Average of P8MEA % of EAL
KS2 APS 0-0.1 0.1-0.2 0.2-0.3 0.3-0.4 0.4-0.5 0.5-0.6 0.6-0.7 0.7-0.8 0.8-0.9 0.9-1 Grand Total
22-23 -0.55 -0.55
23-24 -0.78 0.04 -0.19 -0.20 -0.28
24-25 0.38 -0.31 -0.89 -0.33 -0.53 0.07 -0.23
25-26 -0.40 -0.22 -0.40 -0.09 -0.12 -0.06 -0.08 0.13 0.37 0.45 -0.20
26-27 -0.32 -0.29 -0.22 -0.12 -0.10 -0.08 0.07 0.16 -0.12 0.39 -0.20
27-28 -0.26 -0.20 -0.15 -0.16 0.06 0.03 0.24 0.36 0.22 0.22 -0.16
28-29 -0.12 -0.17 -0.04 0.13 0.24 0.27 0.31 0.28 0.54 0.96 -0.05
29-30 -0.02 0.17 0.24 0.34 0.49 0.23 0.43 0.65 0.83 1.09 0.08
30-31 0.24 0.54 0.51 0.43 0.31 0.99 -0.14 0.32
31-32 0.47 0.38 0.34 0.64 0.89 0.45
32-33 0.42 0.49 0.68 0.68 0.28 1.01 0.48
33-34 0.53 0.61 0.74 0.82 0.88 0.02 0.96 0.78 0.61
34-35 0.83 0.86 0.93 0.91 1.19 0.88
Grand Total -0.09 -0.02 0.03 0.08 0.17 0.13 0.22 0.28 0.35 0.70 -0.02
14. High cohort strategies
• Some schools are specialised or have a particular ethos which means they
enter high amounts of pupils for subjects – for example – “RE”
• Applying whole cohorts to subjects generally works where the average KS2
is over 27/29 – languages in particular but also Geography/History
• In some some subjects the strategy works regardless of KS2 - e.g. BTEC
business studies/multimedia/computer systems
• Some subject such as ESOL - potentially misused - KS2 APS of 27 but 70%
EAL - 75% of cohort being entered
• RE does not work where the school KS2 APS is low and EAL is low - clearly
EAL students benefit the most
15. Religious Education (more than 75% of cohort entered)
• Good example where a school
ethos is represented in the
subjects students enter
• High Open P8 correlation with
high proportion of higher
grades (7-9)
• Schools with high proportion of
EAL students more likely to
achieve higher grades and less
likely to achieve lower grades =
boost to P8
Average ofP8 EAL %
KS2 APS 0-0.1 0.1-0.2 0.2-0.3 0.3-0.4 0.4-0.5 0.5-0.6 0.6-0.7 0.7-0.8 0.8-0.9 0.9-1 Grand Total
GCSE(9-1)Full Course 0.03 0.13 0.18 0.25 0.20 0.17 0.26 0.42 0.47 0.59 0.13
ReligiousStudies 0.03 0.13 0.18 0.25 0.20 0.17 0.26 0.42 0.47 0.59 0.13
23-24 -0.19 -0.20 -0.20
24-25 0.01 0.58 0.20
25-26 -0.09 -0.24 -0.58 -0.44 -0.54 0.03 0.53 -0.14
26-27 -0.27 -0.39 0.27 0.11 -0.13 -0.13 0.09 0.29 -0.41 0.39 -0.04
27-28 -0.13 -0.03 -0.11 -0.01 0.01 0.13 0.25 0.55 0.45 0.03 0.01
28-29 -0.05 -0.07 0.02 0.23 0.31 0.24 0.27 0.26 0.65 0.60 0.05
29-30 0.06 0.26 0.34 0.45 0.54 0.29 0.74 0.63 1.09 0.21
30-31 0.21 0.62 0.47 0.38 0.32
31-32 0.57 0.36 0.34 0.64 0.89 0.47
32-33 0.47 0.41 0.66 0.68 0.33 0.99 0.52
33-34 0.48 0.55 0.68 0.92 0.78 0.02 0.96 0.58
34-35 1.01 0.73 0.83 0.82
Grand Total 0.03 0.13 0.18 0.25 0.20 0.17 0.26 0.42 0.47 0.59 0.13
High RE entry rate Y
Subject description Religious Studies
Average of % of Entries Grade
EAL% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 No result U
GCSE (9-1) Full Course 5.95% 9.84% 14.64% 12.08% 14.84% 16.19% 12.89% 10.00% 7.31% 1.09% 2.82%
0-0.1 6.63% 10.76% 15.68% 12.55% 15.17% 16.22% 13.07% 9.66% 7.48% 0.98% 3.01%
0.1-0.2 5.71% 9.61% 14.22% 11.93% 15.05% 15.46% 12.00% 10.00% 7.15% 0.99% 2.99%
0.2-0.3 5.51% 8.84% 13.43% 11.67% 13.73% 16.09% 12.66% 10.53% 7.96% 1.71% 2.50%
0.3-0.4 5.30% 9.17% 13.13% 11.71% 13.74% 16.32% 13.55% 9.98% 7.19% 1.04% 2.58%
0.4-0.5 5.83% 9.36% 13.92% 11.00% 14.76% 15.91% 11.62% 9.78% 7.00% 1.48% 2.80%
0.5-0.6 4.88% 8.08% 12.68% 11.59% 14.94% 16.86% 13.52% 10.37% 5.79% 1.24% 2.87%
0.6-0.7 4.41% 8.96% 14.61% 12.50% 15.77% 16.40% 12.77% 9.49% 5.68% 1.06% 2.17%
0.7-0.8 4.81% 9.32% 14.59% 12.34% 14.32% 18.01% 12.75% 9.26% 6.02% 0.85% 2.31%
0.8-0.9 4.12% 7.07% 11.24% 9.93% 13.57% 16.18% 15.81% 13.96% 8.97% 0.87% 1.15%
0.9-1 3.10% 6.24% 12.73% 8.69% 14.06% 18.20% 14.42% 16.38% 9.51% 1.24% 1.41%
Grand Total 5.95% 9.84% 14.64% 12.08% 14.84% 16.19% 12.89% 10.00% 7.31% 1.09% 2.82%
16. List of Subjects used for whole cohort (note that
without per-student data it is difficult to understand the precise impact on progress 8 )
Subjects Sum ofNumber ofentriesat grade Average ofP8 Average ofEAL Average ofKS2 Number ofSchools
BTEC First Award L1/2 -Band C -P-D* 9726 0.02 16.17% 27.51 75
Business Studies 986 0.14 6.60% 27.36 10
Computer Architecture / Systems 1762 0.12 22.46% 27.75 13
Multimedia 653 0.28 21.75% 28.53 4
Sports Studies 6325 -0.05 16.00% 27.39 48
Cambridge International Certificate Level 1/Level 2 1375 0.27 43.55% 27.50 11
English for Speakers ofother Languages 1227 0.19 40.90% 26.92 10
Information & Communications Technology 148 0.96 70.00% 33.30 1
GCSE(9-1)Full Course 157964 0.13 21.95% 28.75 998
Computer Studies/Computing 817 -0.04 16.77% 29.04 13
Religious Studies 151818 0.13 21.70% 28.78 949
Social Science: Citizenship 5329 0.11 30.36% 28.05 36
GCSEFull Course 7770 0.13 23.02% 28.69 61
Business Studies:Single 567 0.24 17.00% 31.28 6
Information & Communications Technology 6693 -0.02 23.56% 28.30 48
Modern Hebrew 119 1.11 11.00% 29.07 3
Other Classical Languages 110 1.22 20.50% 29.20 2
Sociology 164 -0.11 2.00% 29.00 1
Urdu 117 1.90 95.00% 28.90 1
OCR Level 1/2 Cambridge National Certificate 3881 -0.02 20.66% 27.86 35
Computer Appreciation / Introduction 3386 0.01 22.13% 27.83 30
Sports / Movement Science 144 -0.01 11.00% 28.30 2
Sports Studies 351 -0.22 12.33% 27.90 3
Other General Qualification at Level 2 1278 -0.03 19.00% 27.99 9
Applied ICT 1278 -0.03 19.00% 27.99 9
VRQ Level 2 14003 -0.13 9.38% 28.20 101
Computer Appreciation / Introduction 5157 -0.05 11.80% 28.20 41
Personal Finance 8412 -0.19 6.74% 28.20 57
Personal Health 434 0.04 26.33% 28.20 3
Grand Total 195997 0.10 20.81% 28.60 1290
• Most schools do not
adopt the approach
• Apart from religious
studies
• Does not include AS
levels which also count
in P8
20. AS Levels
• AS levels can count in the appropriate element of the Progress 8
measure for their subject (for example, maths AS-levels count in the
maths slot, a French AS-level in the ‘EBacc group’, and an Art AS-level
in the ‘open’ element). If a GCSE in the same subject has been taken
the AS-level will always count in Progress 8 and the GCSE will not
count, even if the AS has a lower point score than the GCSE
• Schools will sometimes enter a student for both the A level and the
GCSE – but this is only those with high ability or niche subjects
• Maths is the common example but there are a variety of niche
subjects
• Maths and English are double counted for P8 tables
• For AS levels, there can be a boost for the high ability pupils
compared with legacy/new GCSE’s
• Grade A = 10.75
• Grade B = 8.88
• Grade C = 7
• Grade D = 5.13
• Grade E = 3.5
• For maths GCSE the highest score possible (double counted) is 18 –
for AS level maths it is 21.5
• If a student achieves a B in AS Maths and a 9 in GCSE maths there is
not a great deal of difference for P8 so potentially worth the “risk”
Subject description Count ofSchools Average ofPupilsat end-KS4 Average of% ofcohort Average ofp8 Average ofks2 Average ofeal Average ofPTFSM6CLA1A
Business Studies:Single 2 175 13.77% 0.44 30.85 8.00% 10.00%
Accounting/Finance 1 25 4.00% 0.74 27.50 24.00% 8.00%
Information & Communications Technology 1 154 11.69% 1.03 34.00 34.00% 6.00%
Computer Studies/Computing 3 192 6.40% 0.03 30.47 5.00% 14.33%
History 2 45 8.97% 27.45 11.00% 24.50%
Religious Studies 9 207 9.87% 0.26 29.83 23.33% 20.67%
Logic/ Philosophy 2 193 37.78% 0.57 31.85 10.00% 7.00%
Critical Thinking 5 217 3.10% 0.18 29.02 13.20% 15.80%
Government & Politics 3 231 5.19% 0.10 28.30 30.33% 33.67%
General Studies 10 207 14.05% 0.01 29.41 11.70% 29.10%
Economics 2 74 3.02% -0.14 27.15 7.50% 16.50%
Law 2 168 7.82% 0.40 30.40 12.50% 15.50%
Sociology 3 162 3.92% 0.16 31.23 5.67% 13.00%
Modern Hebrew 5 140 2.40% 0.86 30.16 10.00% 10.20%
Latin 1 181 0.55% 0.50 29.30 11.00% 10.00%
Persian 44 193 0.60% 0.45 29.15 43.36% 32.91%
Other Classical Languages 4 47 8.74% 1.14 29.23 17.00% 4.50%
English Language & Literature 1 173 6.94% 0.06 28.70 3.00% 8.00%
Bengali 5 224 0.88% 0.14 27.96 72.00% 56.00%
Chinese 57 191 0.70% 0.29 29.52 20.82% 24.74%
Dutch 23 177 0.80% 0.25 28.17 27.61% 32.04%
French 21 196 1.25% 0.31 29.22 24.33% 23.52%
German 18 194 1.15% 0.47 29.77 14.89% 18.17%
Gujarati 6 161 0.65% 0.88 32.03 38.50% 19.67%
Japanese 31 188 0.71% 0.46 30.54 16.16% 14.29%
Modern Greek 41 203 0.90% 0.23 29.38 22.34% 22.37%
Arabic 86 179 1.11% 0.31 28.87 38.27% 34.62%
Polish 208 177 1.30% 0.11 28.56 29.07% 28.86%
Portuguese 42 175 1.25% 0.20 27.98 38.21% 35.98%
Punjabi 47 189 1.27% 0.25 28.91 35.49% 27.51%
Russian 36 164 0.75% 0.16 29.50 19.58% 24.06%
Spanish 28 180 1.51% 0.18 28.78 30.96% 34.04%
Turkish 29 181 1.11% 0.23 28.61 38.55% 39.55%
Urdu 5 215 0.50% 0.23 27.68 59.40% 41.60%
Italian 42 186 0.83% 0.20 28.25 38.26% 34.12%
Art & Design 2 154 4.72% -0.19 29.05 2.00% 16.50%
Art & Design (3d Studies) 1 336 0.30% -0.40 27.00 4.00% 25.00%
Art & Design (Fine Art) 2 145 1.14% -0.57 28.00 5.00% 39.50%
History ofArt 1 85 11.76% 0.40 27.10 5.00% 32.00%
Communication Studies 1 240 3.75% 0.48 29.40 23.00% 16.00%
Film Studies 3 221 4.15% 0.56 30.53 8.33% 11.67%
Creative Writing 27 175 4.61% -0.04 28.20 11.00% 24.81%
Art & Design (Photography) 5 205 0.81% 0.09 29.40 6.00% 19.20%
Dance 1 211 0.95% -0.26 28.60 0.00% 14.00%
Drama & Theatre Studies 1 136 7.35% -0.56 27.80 6.00% 40.00%
Music Technology 2 165 0.61% 0.58 31.15 8.00% 13.50%
Psychology 2 214 4.12% 0.34 29.60 16.00% 18.00%
Environmental Science 1 173 8.67% 0.63 32.00 13.00% 6.00%
Mathematics 42 181 1.03% 0.21 29.43 13.81% 20.74%
Mathematics (Further) 7 182 1.01% 0.40 29.41 18.57% 19.29%
Mathematics (Statistics) 2 145 6.87% 0.52 32.80 12.00% 4.50%
Use ofMathematics 1 344 18.31% -0.16 28.70 2.00% 23.00%
Chemistry 1 148 0.68% -0.01 28.50 14.00% 18.00%
Geology 1 169 7.69% 0.59 32.60 2.00% 2.00%
Geography 1 71 9.86% 29.40 17.00% 44.00%
World Development 1 187 12.83% 0.98 32.90 17.00% 8.00%
Biology 2 80 4.88% -0.01 25.15 16.00% 41.00%
932 182 1.76% 0.23 28.97 27.69% 27.74%
21. Vocational Qualifications
• If new specification vocational qualifications are equivalent to
GCSE’s we should see the same split of grades by KS2
• Average of 8/9 should be equivalent to Distinction*
• 7 Grade in GCSE equivalent to Distinction
• Equivalent subjects
• Art – 18% Distinction* vs 9% average for GCSE 8/9 grade
• Dance – 33% Distinction* vs 14% for GCSE 8/9 grade
• Music – 24% Distinction* vs 13% for GCSE 8/9 grade
• Drama – 42% Distinction* vs 8* for GCSE 8/9 grade
• Generally lower KS2 associated with study in BTEC
• Across all subjects a Distinction* has an average of 22% of
entries – compared to 7% of GCSE 8/9
• Distinction has 19% compared to 12% of GCSE 7 grade
• For average ability students it is much easier to obtain the top
grades than entering the GCSE subject
• E.g. school with average KS2 or 23.7-24.7 – 17% achieving
Distinction* vs 6.6% achieving 8/9 at GCSE
• The reasons for this may be:
• Unconscious bias in teacher coursework marking
• Consciously Inflating results
• Easier qualifications
• Students more suited to coursework than exams
• It is unlikely to be due to a significant difference in teaching
quality between the BTEC and GCSE
Subjectdiscountgroup Qualification Grade Average of %of Entries Average of p8 Average of ks2
Art& Design BTECFirstAwardL1/2- BandC- P-D* L2Distinction* 18.30% -0.02 27.75
L2Distinction 10.96% -0.06 27.80
GCSE(9-1) Full Course 7 11.90% -0.05 28.19
8 9.24% -0.02 28.28
9 8.83% 0.00 28.43
Dance: General BTEC First Award L1/2- Band C - P-D* L2Distinction* 32.80% -0.16 27.78
L2Distinction 14.54% -0.15 27.83
GCSE(9-1) Full Course 7 16.63% -0.05 28.49
8 15.30% 0.00 28.62
9 13.46% 0.03 28.71
MusicStudies (General) BTEC First Award L1/2- Band C - P-D* L2Distinction* 23.52% -0.09 27.75
L2Distinction 17.73% -0.10 27.56
GCSE(9-1) Full Course 7 15.81% 0.05 28.72
8 14.05% 0.09 28.90
9 11.96% 0.14 29.14
Speech & Drama BTEC First Award L1/2- Band C - P-D* L2Distinction* 41.78% -0.14 27.63
L2Distinction 24.13% -0.11 27.65
GCSE(9-1) Full Course 7 11.62% 0.04 28.48
8 9.42% 0.07 28.65
9 7.69% 0.09 28.80
Qualification Grade Average of % of Entries Average of p8 Average of ks2
BTEC First Award L1/2 - Band C - P-D* L2 Distinction* 22.06% -0.12 27.73
L2 Distinction 19.11% -0.13 27.71
GCSE (9-1) Full Course 7 11.64% -0.04 28.24
8 8.77% -0.01 28.31
9 6.75% 0.03 28.45
Grand Total 10.25% -0.02 28.27
Average of % of Entries Qualification Grade
BTEC First Award L1/2 - Band C - P-D* GCSE (9-1) Full Course
ks2 avg L2 Distinction* L2 Distinction 7 8 9
21.7-22.7 12.14% 12.50%
22.7-23.7 5.96% 20.00% 7.82% 6.52% 12.50%
23.7-24.7 16.52% 14.40% 10.74% 6.38% 6.73%
24.7-25.7 19.05% 20.65% 8.01% 6.16% 4.57%
25.7-26.7 18.22% 17.26% 7.75% 5.74% 4.68%
26.7-27.7 22.18% 20.23% 9.54% 6.68% 4.98%
27.7-28.7 21.28% 18.69% 11.22% 8.06% 5.81%
28.7-29.7 24.09% 19.52% 13.22% 9.91% 7.12%
29.7-30.7 34.24% 17.64% 15.80% 12.57% 9.79%
30.7-31.7 15.05% 21.96% 17.51% 16.38% 12.80%
31.7-32.7 21.17% 15.79% 12.84%
32.7-33.7 21.53% 23.32% 21.25%
33.7-34.7 21.84% 28.12% 31.61%
22. Core Languages
• Very few schools have the core
languages of Spanish, French or
German in over 75% of the cohort
• Only 67 out of 3000+ schools
• Usually if this is the case then it is the
only language taught or there is a
minor language also taught
• One Language – 36 schools
• Major/Minor – 31 schools
• Note that this is likely to change due to
recent policy changes to make
French/German easier to reverse the
entry rates in these subjects
Count of type P8
Row Labels -1.28--0.78 -0.78--0.28 -0.28-0.22 0.22-0.72 0.72-1.22 1.22-1.72 1.72-2.22 Grand Total
major/minor 0.00% 2.99% 23.88% 13.43% 4.48% 1.49% 0.00% 46.27%
one language 2.99% 14.93% 16.42% 7.46% 8.96% 1.49% 1.49% 53.73%
Grand Total 2.99% 17.91% 40.30% 20.90% 13.43% 2.99% 1.49% 100.00%
23. Niche Languages
• Niche languages are those which are
generally not taught in schools but take
advantage of the student home language
• Some common languages may appear in the
list because there are only 5-10 students
studying in a larger school
• It is unethical because the school has not
taught the language so should not receive
credit
• A common strategy – especially with one
or two students
• Clear link between EAL, P8 and the average
% of cohort entered for niche languages
• Most common language is Polish, followed
by Italian, Portuguese and Arabic
Numberof Niche Languages Count of School orcollege name Average of p8 Average % entered forniche language
1 721 -0.06 1.42%
2 550 0.01 2.68%
3 433 0.06 3.77%
4 261 0.06 5.20%
5 204 0.11 6.27%
6 116 0.08 8.05%
7 84 0.10 9.02%
8 48 0.14 10.67%
9 27 0.21 10.94%
10 12 0.20 14.29%
11 6 0.33 12.51%
12 1 0.26 13.69%
No Niche Language 651 -0.05
Grand Total 3114 0.01 3.87%
Language Number of Schools Entered Average of p8
Polish 1290 -0.01
Italian 916 0.06
Portuguese 729 0.03
Arabic 707 0.11
Chinese 672 0.17
Russian 633 0.06
Turkish 405 0.05
Spanish 310 -0.07
Modern Greek 307 0.05
Dutch 287 0.06
Urdu 271 0.11
German 269 -0.03
Punjabi 243 0.14
Persian 232 0.18
Japanese 230 0.32
French 189 -0.13
Gujarati 150 0.33
Latin 125 0.23
Bengali 123 0.10
Classical Greek 104 0.34
English for Speakers of other Languages 84 -0.01
Modern Hebrew 26 0.33
Other Classical Languages 7 0.59
Hindi 4 0.54
24. Niche Other
Subjects
• Most schools adopt a niche subjects
approach
• Measurement is based on <5% of
cohort some some schools and
subjects on the list due to high school
numbers
• Most common subjects are centred
around dance, drama, music and art
• Theory that these subjects influenced
by student background more than
teaching – due to exposure since early
years and external tutoring/clubs
• Also other specialist subjects such
as Astronomy
Niche SubjectsCount of School or college name Average of p8 Average of % of cohort
1 684 0.06 0.02
2 604 -0.01 0.05
3 438 0.00 0.06
4 282 -0.04 0.09
5 188 -0.07 0.11
6 104 -0.13 0.13
7 82 -0.11 0.16
8 51 -0.11 0.19
9 20 0.02 0.21
10 13 -0.07 0.23
11 8 -0.24 0.22
12 8 -0.25 0.29
13 2 -0.59 0.27
14 4 0.00 0.30
15 1 -0.12 0.44
16 1 0.23 0.15
(blank) 644 0.03
Grand Total 3134 0.00 0.07
Subject Count of Subject description Average of p8
Music performance: Group 710 0.187846715
Music 564 -0.026074219
Hospitality / Catering Studies 329 -0.093436533
Building / Construction Operations (General / Combined) 307 -0.134228188
Speech & Drama 286 -0.106043165
Computer Appreciation / Introduction 271 -0.06370229
Art & Design 252 -0.079217391
Dance 244 0.053513514
Statistics 204 -0.139444444
D&T Textiles Technology 182 0.048314607
Religious Studies 168 -0.124496644
Computer Studies/Computing 161 -0.052481203
Sports Studies 158 -0.080264901
Personal Finance 154 -0.168705036
D&T Food Technology 152 0.157163121
Additional Mathematics FSMQ 147 0.050826446
Small Business Management 146 -0.101048951
Astronomy 140 0.075504587
Music Studies (General) 137 -0.065447761
Social Science: Citizenship 135 -0.112781955
Art & Design (Photography) 128 -0.030707965
Information & Communications Technology 126 -0.058392857
Health Studies 126 -0.062704918
26. School A
• Top 20 school by overall P8 in 2019
• Reduction of 17% of pupils finishing KS4 between year 9 and 11
• Low EBACCAPS of 4.3
• Low EAL and FSM, average SEN
• No entries for single sciences (2018)
• 75% entry rate for BTEC sport (2018)
• 50% entry rate for BTEC business studies (2018)
• 30% entry rate for languages
• All open subjects apart from a small amount of art GCSE’s are BTEC’s
27. School B
• Top 5 school by overall P8 in 2019
• Reduction of 4% of pupils finishing KS4 between year 9 and 11
• High EBACCAPS of >6.4
• Extremely Low SEN, Very high EAL, low FSM
• 90% of students entered for single language – Spanish
• 98% of students entered for BTEC computer systems
• 92% of students entered for RE
• 44% of students entered for BTEC business studies
• 31% of students entered for free standing maths level 3
• Niche subjects used include – Gujarati, Arabic (AS level and GCSE), Hindi,
Portuguese, Urdu
28. What actually do the “best” schools do?
• Have strong yet fair behaviour systems that mentor/support
• Have above average attendance
• Have low staff sickness
• Teach English, Maths and Sciences extremely well
• Provide vocational courses in the best interests of the students
• Work together with parents and not “them and us”
• Have the highest of aspirations for all children
29. What can we do about it?
• Regardless of which counter-measures are implemented schools will still try to game the system. Key is the
management of subjects and how measures are calculated to reduce the loopholes
• Reduce the impact of certain subjects on attainment/progress 8
• E.g. BTEC’s are worth 75% of a GCSE for A8/P8 calculation
• If schools really care about the qualification and the outcome for the student they would still continue with the qualification
• Reduce the impact of parental wealth on certain subjects and student/school background
• E.g. If dance and FSM student then worth 125% for the school for A8/P8 – however, should not be a substitute for aspiration
• Take into account student background in A8/P8 calculation
• Identify schools that enter whole cohorts for “non-core subjects” and adjust the impact to A8 – for example if the entry rate
is above 80% of school then qualification is worth 75% (and monitored) – the entry rate needs to be significantly above other
similar schools entry rates
• Again, for schools which don’t care about gaming the system (for example, an arts school or religious focused school) they should still
continue with the entry levels
• A decrease in overall entry rates for the subject would “prove” the theory
• Include students that left the school in year 10 and 11 within a new measure of (adjusted P8 including pupils that left) –
ensure that the recipient school has their P8 measure based on arrivals in year 10/11 (care needs to be taken that this is only
for those with low A8/negative P8)
• Remove students from A8/P8 calculations that are clear outliers for the school
• Reduce the impact of EAL KS2 – suggestion to adjust the KS2 value used for P8 calculation where the student is classified as
EAL (would also benefit primary schools results and their KS2)