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A quick glance at autonomous automobiles

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A quick glance at autonomous automobiles

  1. 1. www.ucgef.org A Quick Glance at Autonomous Automobiles Michael M. Hsieh, Ph.D. VP of Green IT Taskforce and Education Program, US China Green Energy Council;
  2. 2. Level of Autonomy Defined by NHTSA 10/17/2016 2Reference: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Level Definition Description 0 No Automation The driver is in complete and sole control of the vehicle at all times. The driver has full control over the primary vehicle controls (brakes, steering, acceleration/drive) is himself responsible for driving the vehicle safely. 1 Function Specific Automation One or more specific control functions are automated independently, for example electronic stability control or dynamic brake support in emergencies. The driver is fully engaged and responsible for overall vehicle control. 2 Combined Function Automation At least two controls are automated and work in unison, such as adaptive cruise control in combination with lane keeping. The driver disengages from active control in certain limited driving situations, and is still responsible for monitoring the roadway and safe operation. 3 Limited Self- Driving Automation The driver cedes full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions, relying heavily on the vehicle to sense changes in those conditions that require the driver to take back control within a comfortable transition time. 4 Full Self- Driving Automation 1. The vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. The driver is not expected to operate at any time or else the vehicle can be unoccupied. 2. This also includes vehicles without passengers or drivers. Driving safety rests entirely upon the vehicle's automated system.
  3. 3. Self-Driving Cars Are Coming 10/17/2016 3Reference: “Self-Driving Cars Are Coming, But They’re Not Ready For Pittsburgh Yet”, Stephanie Roman, March 2016
  4. 4. Technologies for Fully Autonomous Cars • Anti-lock brakes(ABS) • Electronic stability control (ESC) • Adaptive Cruise Control & Automotive Night Vision • Lane Departure Warning System • Self-Parking • Automated Guided Vehicle Systems • And Lots and Lots More … 10/17/2016 4Reference: “Self-Driving Cars”, An Independent Analyst, September 2015
  5. 5. A Street View in the Next 5 to 10 Years 10/17/2016 5Reference: “The Future of Technology, Privacy, Security and Risks – Modern Car Technology”,Danielito Vizcayno, August 2015
  6. 6. An Illustration of A Self-Driving Car 10/17/2016 6Reference: “Self-Driving Cars”, An Independent Analyst, September 2015
  7. 7. 10/17/2016 7Reference: “Self-Driving Cars”, An Independent Analyst, September 2015
  8. 8. Some Known Sensors for Autonomous Cars 10/17/2016 8Reference: “The Future of Technology, Privacy, Security and Risks – Modern Car Technology”,Danielito Vizcayno, August 2015
  9. 9. Some Known Sensors for Autonomous Cars 10/17/2016 9Reference: “The Future of Technology, Privacy, Security and Risks – Modern Car Technology”,Danielito Vizcayno, August 2015
  10. 10. Some Essential Hardware • Sensors: for 360 degrees around the vehicle within 5 meters range • Cameras: working with RADAR to detect objects in front of and behind a vehicle • RADAR: detects the objects on the road that the vehicle must avoid or brake for • GPS: provides an approximate position of the vehicle within +/- 20 meters • LIDAR: creates a virtual reality view around the vehicle 10/17/2016 10Reference: “Google Self-Driving Car Technology”,Priya Prabhu, Trikaripur University, September 2015
  11. 11. Automotive Architecture Modeling 10/17/2016 11Reference: “Automotive System and Software Architecture”, Yanja Dajsuren, Eindhoven University, March 2014
  12. 12. Some Essential Softweare • Predefined 3D map • Traffic Center • Sensor Data Processing • Localization • Obstacle Tracking • Control 10/17/2016 12Reference: “Self-Driving Car in the Insurance Market”, Auditorio Reale Seguros, Reale Sequros Inc., June 2016
  13. 13. What’s Going On Inside a Modern Car 10/17/2016 13Reference: “The Future of Technology, Privacy, Security and Risks – Modern Car Technology”,Danielito Vizcayno, August 2015 TPMS: Tire Pressure Monitoring System OBD-II: On-Board Diagnostics
  14. 14. Comparison of Software Complexity 10/17/2016 14 • Boeing 787, one of the most Electronic Airliner: ~8 Million Lines of Code • Chevrolet Volt, one Modern Day City Car: ~40 Million Lines of Code Reference: “Automotive System and Software Architecture”, Yanja Dajsuren, Eindhoven University, March 2014
  15. 15. Complexity in Automotive Software Automotive has 6-8 operating systems per vehicle today. A self-driving car from Google has 2 Billion Lines of Code. 10/17/2016 15Reference: “Shifting to Software – A New Look of Automotive Landscape”, Thomas Bloor, QNX Software Systems, September 2016
  16. 16. Street Situations Handled by a Car “Driver” 10/17/2016 16Reference: “Self-Driving Cars”, An Independent Analyst, September 2015
  17. 17. The Role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) • The Goal of AI Agent is to take the passenger to its desired destination safely and legally. • Google Maps and the hardware sensors data are sent to the AI. • AI determines: – How fast to accelerate – When to slow down/stop – When to steer the wheel – And many other things needing support for Decision Making 10/17/2016 17Reference: “Self-Driving Cars”, An Independent Analyst, September 2015
  18. 18. From Sensing to Actions – The Pipeline 10/17/2016 18Reference: “Self-Driving Cars”, An Independent Analyst, September 2015
  19. 19. The Benefit from “Machine-in-Control” 10/17/2016 19Reference: “Self-Driving Cars”, An Independent Analyst, September 2015
  20. 20. The Compute Engine Behind Software 10/17/2016 20
  21. 21. Attack Surfaces of a Self-Driving Car 10/17/2016 21 PassThru: J2534, also known as Pass-Thru, ensures that independent repair shops can work on modern cars and have cost-effective access to information and ECU programming downloads from vehicle manufacturer when required. Reference: “The Future of Technology, Privacy, Security and Risks – Modern Car Technology”,Danielito Vizcayno, August 2015 OBD: On-Board Diagnostics WMA: Windows Media Audio
  22. 22. Threat Model in the Cyber World 10/17/2 2 Reference: “The Future of Technology, Privacy, Security and Risks – Modern Car Technology”, Danielito Vizcayno, August 2015 • Indirect Physical Access – OBD-II port (Federeally Mandated in USA) – Disc, USB and iPot Port • Short Range Wireless – Bluetooth – Remote Keyless Entry – RFIDs – Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) • Long Range Wireless – Satellite Radio – GPS
  23. 23. Vulneralbility from Wireless Interfaces 10/17/2016 23Reference: “The Future of Technology, Privacy, Security and Risks – Modern Car Technology”, Danielito Vizcayno, August 2015
  24. 24. 33 Corporations Working on Autonomous Automobiles 10/17/2016 24 Google and Tesla might be the biggest names chasing self-driving cars, but a host of auto brands and other tech heavyweights are also investing heavily in driverless R&D. Reference: “33 Corporations Working on Autonomous Automobiles”, CB Insights, August 2016
  25. 25. The Still Unfolding Reality versus Fiction 10/17/2016 25Reference: “Driving Disrupted – Driverless Cars Change Everything”, Sparks & Honey, October 2014
  26. 26. Impact to Insurance market • Until 2020:  Most of the key players in the ordinary car industry will provide level 3 cars improving existing driver assistance systems (the exemption is Volvo)  Technological companies as Google and Apple seem to directly build a self driving car on level 4 and not to develop it by improving existing driver assistance systems • At 2040, the autonomous cars will become our primary means of transport • Studies suggest that self-driving cars would dramatically reduce car ownership. • If autonomous cars can bring down accident rates substantially, standard motor premiums will fall. • If the driver-owner model of car ownership is replaced by pooled, shared or leased driving, insurers may look to provide risk coverage to the ownership collective; or look to continue insuring the driver on a pay-as- you-go basis. 10/17/2016 26Reference: “Self-Driving Car in the Insurance Market”, Auditorio Reale Seguros, Reale Sequros Inc., June 2016
  27. 27. The On-going Evolution for Automobiles 10/17/2016 27Reference: “Self-Driving Car in the Insurance Market”, Auditorio Reale Seguros, Reale Sequros Inc., June 2016
  28. 28. Impact by Self-Driving Automobiles 10/17/2016 28 90% of cars become self-driving would lead to: • Doubling of the road capacity • Reducing driving times by 60% on motorways & 15% on suburban roads Source: University of Texas study Reference: “Driverless Cars – Impact on Real Estate”, Rodrigo Amado, Emily Dunn, Pauline Martin, Kshitij Parashar, Clelia Schwing, September 2016
  29. 29. What to Watch 10/17/2016 29 • Increased land and property value in suburban areas • Large combined retail and residential property developments • Less residential parking space allocated • Decrease in parking space per car Reference: “Driverless Cars – Impact on Real Estate”, Rodrigo Amado, Emily Dunn, Pauline Martin, Kshitij Parashar, Clelia Schwing, September 2016
  30. 30. What to Watch 10/17/2016 30 Surburbs with Increased Property Value Lifestyle & Entertainment areas Less Parking Space Reference: “Driverless Cars – Impact on Real Estate”, Rodrigo Amado, Emily Dunn, Pauline Martin, Kshitij Parashar, Clelia Schwing, September 2016
  31. 31. Parking Space Has Been At a Premium 10/17/2016 31Reference: “Driverless Cars – Impact on Real Estate”, Rodrigo Amado, Emily Dunn, Pauline Martin, Kshitij Parashar, Clelia Schwing, September 2016 2 Office Inventory Self-Driving Cars will reduce Parking Space (No Turkey Allowed in the Parking Lot)
  32. 32. A Potentially Big Impact to Cities 10/17/2016 32Reference: “Driverless Cars – Impact on Real Estate”, Rodrigo Amado, Emily Dunn, Pauline Martin, Kshitij Parashar, Clelia Schwing, September 2016 “Cities may become places where no one lives but where everyone works and meets” (Noah Smith, 2015)
  33. 33. Potential Impact to Residential Housing in Suburbs 10/17/2016 33 • Faster and easier commutes means residential property value shifting from urban centres to suburban areas • Reduced time & cost of driving • Bigger houses • Retail and residential combined • More ‘row house complexes’ with bigger common areas (i.e. parks and gardens) • Landlords now have more incentive to build complexes in the suburbs. Reference: “Driverless Cars – Impact on Real Estate”, Rodrigo Amado, Emily Dunn, Pauline Martin, Kshitij Parashar, Clelia Schwing, September 2016
  34. 34. Potential Impact by Self-Driving Automobiles 10/17/2016 34Reference: “Driverless Cars – Impact on Real Estate”, Rodrigo Amado, Emily Dunn, Pauline Martin, Kshitij Parashar, Clelia Schwing, September 2016 Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2016 Commercial Real Estate Single- Family Real Estate Development cost Occupancy cost 10-12 % 4,5 % Cost/unit Volume/unit +25% -25% 25-30% Mortgage Offices’ Underground garage
  35. 35. Electric Vehicle versus Autonomous Vehicle 10/17/2016 35 • Electric Vehicle and Autonomous Vehicle are Independent and Non-contradictory ways of building vehicles. • An Autonomous Vehicle is one that is capable of sensing its environment and navigating without human input. • An Electric Vehicle is an automobile that is propelled by one or more electric motors, using electric energy stored in rechargeable batteries or another energy storage device. • It is clear that an Autonomous Vehicle can use a powertrain that includes an Internal Combustion Engine or Electric Motors. The trend seems to be using Electric Motors. • It is also clear that an Electric Vehicle can be built to be capable of sensing its environment and navigating without human input. There seems to be a trend to include the Self- Driving feature moving forward. Reference: Wikipedia
  36. 36. PROs and CONs for Electric Cars 10/17/2016 36 For Electric Cars Year PROs CONs 2015 1. Cheaper Operating Costs 2. Silence Is Golden 3. Recharging Your Battery Pack at Home 4. Zero Tailpipe Emissions 1. Range Anxiety 2. Charging Infrastructure At Home, At Work, and Along the Freeways 3. The High Price of EVs 4. Limited Choice of EVs 5. Long Recharging Time 2016 1. Quiet and Quick 2. Home Charging 3. Cheaper to Operate 4. No Tailpipe Emissions 1. Range Anxiety 2. Long Refueling Time 3. Higher Acquisition Cost 4. Lack of Consumer Choice Reference: “Electric Cars PROs and CONs”, Brad Berman, September 2016
  37. 37. PROs and CONs for Self-Driving Cars 10/17/2016 37 For Self-Driving Cars Year PROs CONs 2016 1. Potential to reduce the number of Road Accidents 2. Passengers can carry on with other things 3. Mobility for disabled individuals 1. Potential to be hacked 2. What happens if a sensor goes out? 3. Cost of the Technology Reference: “The advantages and disadvantages of self-driving cars”, Geoff Haines, June 2016
  38. 38. Positive Opinions about Self-Driving Cars • A computer is an Ideal Motorist when compared with a Human. • Computers use algorithms and data to drastically reduce the chances of car accidents. • Zero chance for Distracting a computer. • Computer driven cars will dramatically reduce the danger of driving. • Significant savings in many different venues such as insurance cost and healthcare cost. • Saving time for humans while a computer takes over the driving responsibilities. • “Platooning” behavior of Self-Driving cars would significantly improve traffic conditions and congestion and reduce commute time. • Can identify traffic problems or road risks early on. • Freedom and Mobility for all including those who could not get it. • Partially filling the void of lacking adequate Public Transportation. • Possible Higher Speed Limit and further reducing Time On the Road. • Creating more new jobs. • Many Partial Functionalities already deployed in the high-end cars. • Greatly reducing the occurrence of Drunk Driving Incidents. • Saving from Not to Continue on the Old Mass Transit Projects. • Less Police Resource burnt on traffic related issues. • Self-Driving Cars can be spaced much closer on the road. • Less parking structure and much less parking headaches. • Much less need for special driver license for operating cars. • Better accommodation for senior citizens and handicapped people. 10/17/2016 38 Reference: “Top 20 PROs and CONs Associated with self-driving cars”, Auto Insurance Center, 2016
  39. 39. Negative Opinions about Self-Driving Cars • Training needed to educate people to operate a self- driving car. • Cost of a self-driving car could be out of reach for the general public for a long time. • Accidents can and will still happen if self-driving cars are not adopted widely. • Cyber Security is a very big concern. • A computer built in a self-driving car could have been a set-up for collecting personal data. • Self-driving cars could cause job losses, especially in the transportation sector, especially when it comes to freight transportation and taxi drivers. • Who holds responsibility in a car accident- the driver? The car manufacturer? The software developer? • What role the driver might have to play in the event the technology fails? • In the event of an accident, for example, where a police officer is directing traffic, the cars cannot interpret human signals. • In the event of a technology glitch or recall, drivers might be helpless to get around, having been "out of practice" in the driving world for some time. • It's unclear how full adoption of the technology might be. • Many individuals are nervous about handing over all the power to a computer, which could malfunction and put the driver in a more dangerous situation. • It's unclear how self-driving cars would maneuver through hazards like roadblocks or unique local driving laws. • The success of self-driving cars currently relies on accurate mapping systems through GPS but GPS devices are not always accurate. • NHTSA remains skeptical of the technology behind self-driving cars, even calling for a ban on them at one point until further testing could be completed. • Google is currently at the helm of development for the cars, other auto manufacturers might sell fewer cars in the event that Google's version takes off. • It's likely that the self-driving cars would be electric. This implies bad news for the gasoline industry as well as the Internal Combustion Engine based industry. • Personal injury lawyers may see a reduction in their earnings if self-driving cars truly are safer and reduce the number of accidents on the road. • Driver's education courses would lose money and go out of business because there would be less of a need to educate people how to drive. • People who enjoy driving are unlikely to buy into the technology that means they no longer need to focus behind the wheel. 10/17/2016 39Reference: “Top 20 PROs and CONs Associated with self-driving cars”, Auto Insurance Center, 2016
  40. 40. Thank You! www.ucgef.org

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