Presentation to the August 12, 2015 Miami-Dade MPO FTAC.

1. UNDERSTANDING THE VALUE
OF RELIABILITY FOR THE
FREIGHT INDUSTRY
FTAC Meeting
August 12th, 2015
Xia Jin
LCTR, FIU

2. Outline
 Background
 Purpose
 Objectives
 Challenges
 Stated Preference Survey
 Recruitment
 Experiment Design

3. Background
Growing
demand for
freight
transportation
Better
understanding
of freight
behavior
Increasing role
of reliability
in freight
transportation

4. Purpose
 Value of Reliability (VOR) refers to the monetary
value users place on reliability, or how much the
users are willing to pay to reduce the variability of
travel time.
 It is a critical parameter in benefit-cost analysis,
and transportation planning to measure the
monetary equivalency of improvements in reliability.
 This study aims to understand how the freight
community value travel time reliability in their
transportation decisions.

5. Benefits to the Community
 Support investment decisions that reflect the needs
of freight stakeholders
 better understanding of how the users (shippers and
carriers) respond to changes in reliability
 tools to evaluate alternative freight management and
operational strategies.

6. Project Objectives
 Review existing studies on VOR and identify knowledge
and data gap;
 Conduct stated preference survey to understand user
decision-making;
 Develop models to estimate VOR by stratification, such
as, commodity type, trip length, and business type, etc.
 Incorporate VOR in freight analysis and project evaluation.

7. Stated Preference (SP) Survey
 SP surveys are designed to collect preference
information from the users through hypothetical
scenarios.
 Recruitment Stage
 Background information
 One recent shipment information
 SP Scenarios
 Eight to nine scenarios, each consists of 2 or 3
alternatives

8. Proposed Market Segment - Shippers
Light Medium Heavy
Yes X X X X X X
Delivery
Window
Pressure
X X
Truck
Non-
perishable
No X X X X
Yes X X X X X X
Perishable
No X X X X X X
Shippers
Rail
Water
ways
Air

9. Proposed Market Segment - Carriers
Carriers
Truck Rail
Water
-ways
AirShipping
Distance
Light Medium Heavy
Shipping
Distance
Containerized
<50 Miles X X X
<300
Miles
X
X X
50-300
Miles
X X X
300+
Miles
X X X 300-
1000
Miles
X
Non-
Containerized
<50 Miles X X X
50-300
Miles
X X X
> 1000
Miles
X
300+
Miles
X X X

10. Experimental Design
 C1 –within-mode trade-offs among travel time, cost and
reliability;
 C2 –within-mode trade-offs among travel time, cost,
reliability, and departure time;
 C3 –cross-mode trade-offs between roadway and
railway shipment based on travel time, cost, travel time
reliability, service flexibility and probability of
shipment damage.
 C4 –cross-mode trade-offs between roadway and
railway based on travel time, cost, travel time
reliability, departure time, service flexibility and
probability of shipment damage.

11. Design
Flow

12. Recruitment
Instrument –
Shipment
Information

13. Recruitment
Instrument –
Background
Information

14. Experiment Design
Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3
Mean Transit Time : 10 hrs Mean Transit Time: 15 hrs Mean Transit Time: 12.5 hrs
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
4.5 hours early
2 hours early
On time
5 hours late
10 hours late
( Hints : very high reliability)
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
6 hour early
3 hour early
On-time
4.5 hours late
9 hour late
( Hints : low reliability)
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
3.5 hour early
On-time
On-time
3 hour late
3 hour late
( Hints : medium reliability )
Cost : $875 Cost : $250 Cost : $400
I prefer this option I prefer this option I prefer this option
C1

15. Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3
Departure time :
Morning : Before 6:00 AM or
after 10:00 AM, Or
Afternoon : Before 3:00 PM
or after 7:00 PM
Departure time : Between
6:00 AM and 10:00 AM
(morning) or Between 3:00
Pm and 7:00 PM (noon)
Departure time :
Morning : Before 6:00 AM or
after 10:00 AM, Or
Afternoon : : Before 3:00 PM
or after 7:00 PM
Mean Transit Time : 8 hrs Mean Transit Time: 12.5 hrs Mean Transit Time: 10 hrs
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
1 hour early
1 hour early
On time
On time
1 hour late
( Hints : high reliability)
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
6 hour early
4 hour early
On-time
5.5 hours late
12.5 hour late
( Hints : very low reliability)
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
0.5 hour early
On-time
On-time
On-time
1 hour late
( Hints : medium reliability )
Cost : $500 Cost : $400 Cost : $750
I prefer this option I prefer this option I prefer this option
C2

16. Road Rail
Mean Transit Time : 10 hrs Mean Transit Time: 20 hrs
The shipment has an equal chance of
arriving at any of the following time :
3 hour early
On time
On time
2 hour late
2 hour late
( Hints : high reliability)
The shipment has an equal chance of arriving at
any of the following time :
3 hour early
3 hour early
On-time
On-time
2 hour late
( Hints : medium reliability )
Cost : $500 Cost : $280
Service Flexibility : Medium Service Flexibility : High
Probability of Shipment Damage : Medium Probability of Shipment Damage : Low
I prefer this option I prefer this option
C3

17. C4
Road Rail Road
Departure time : Between
6:00 AM and 10:00 AM
(morning) or Between 3:00
Pm and 7:00 PM (noon)
Departure time :
Morning : Before 6:00 AM or
after 10:00 AM, Or
Afternoon : Before 3:00 PM
or after 7:00 PM
Departure time :
Morning : Before 6:00 AM or
after 10:00 AM, Or
Afternoon : Before 3:00 PM
or after 7:00 PM
Mean Transit Time : 12.5 hrs Mean Transit Time: 15 hrs Mean Transit Time: 8 hrs
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
3.5 hour early
On time
On time
3 hours late
3 hours late
( Hints : high reliability)
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
1 hour early
On-time
On-time
On-time
2 hours late
( Hints : very low reliability)
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
1 hour early
1 hour early
On-time
On-time
1 hour late
( Hints : Medium reliability )
Cost : $500 Cost : $625 Cost : $750
Service flexibility : Medium Service flexibility : Medium Service flexibility : Low
Probability of Shipment
damage : Medium
Probability of Shipment
damage : Medium
Probability of Shipment
damage : Medium
I prefer this option I prefer this option I prefer this option