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Joel Rubinson
                             February 21, 2012
                          Joelrubinson@gmail.com
                            Blog.joelrubinson.net
                           Twitter: @joelrubinson




The ideas expressed are
the property of
Rubinson Partners, Inc.                             1
   Donna is a researcher (now called
          insights)
         Donna is Vice President,
          Consumer & Market
          Insights, Unilever, Americas
         When I asked what she does for a
          living, she said…”I sell soap.
          Research is just what I do”.




                                              2
Rubinson Partners, Inc.
   Research is about informing brand strategy
          and marketing action in a grounded
          way…evidence, analytics, insights
          ◦ How do I grow brand sales effectively and
            efficiently?
          ◦ How do I create brand loyalty?
          ◦ How do people use my brand?
          ◦ How do people shop?
          ◦ How do target consumers consume and respond
            to media?



Rubinson Partners, Inc.
A digital river of information
              •fed by numerous tributaries
              •Reflecting changing societal values, lifestyle trends, and brand
              engagement
              •Mostly naturally occurring, on-going 24/7
              •Some tributaries are “man-made” and proprietary like a brand
              tracker

              •Start research with river rather than projects




                                                                                  4
Rubinson Partners, Inc.
   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYfbjZ
        mk2VQ




                                                5
Rubinson Partners, Inc.
   The value of forensic analysis
          ◦ Massive databases of actual behavior,
            native to the process, have been
            proven to have great insights
            value…DunnHumby frequent shopper
            data.
          ◦ Digital is native to the shopping
            process for offline purchases (as well
            as TV is native to online).
             Must be studied
             Impact must be measured
             Rich in forensic insights
                Instead of an attribute rating on “dinner
                 ideas”, ask..when people search for
                 “dinner ideas” where do they wind up?



                                                             6
Rubinson Partners, Inc.
   Brand tracking needs to position brands to
          succeed in the digital future




                                                       7
Rubinson Partners, Inc.
   While valuable for brand imagery and traditional media, brand
         survey tracking is too slow, sample sizes are insufficient, and
         recall is inaccurate for owned and earned media.
         ◦ The promise of digital is real time, and you must sense the
           naturally occurring digital signals to respond instantly.


    With brand tracker data, all
    measures are strongly
    correlated to market share.
    Social media and digital data
    look nothing like that.

    Ex: although Starbucks is only
    twice as large as Dunkin
    Donuts, it has more than 10X
    the buzz



                                                                           8
Rubinson Partners, Inc.
   Marketing is losing a handle on how much brand
          communication is out there
          ◦ Paid
          ◦ Owned
          ◦ Earned
         Hard to measure
          ◦ Marketing mix modeling usually done at a market level
          ◦ Owned media is way undervalued
          ◦ Earned media impressions is way larger than social
            media comments (but much less than Facebook would
            lead you to believe!)
          ◦ And what about search impressions?


                                                                    9
Rubinson Partners, Inc.
   We need to learn from each other
          ◦ Advanced analytic tools used by research can
            benefit digital analytics
             Loyalty modeling
             Game theory statistics
             Conjoint analytics
          ◦ Understanding digital possibilities will benefit
            research analytics




                                                               10
Rubinson Partners, Inc.
Share of Requirements distribution for a 10% share brand; avg.
                           category purchase cycle of 12x/year
% category   70%
buyers
             60%

             50%

             40%

             30%

             20%

             10%

             0%
                                                               Share of
                           25%           50%            75%    requirements
Share of Requirements distribution for a 10% share brand; avg.
                             category purchase cycle of 12x/year
  % category   70%                                                               1. Which loyalty
  buyers
               60%
                                                                                    segments grow and
                                                                                    which decline as the
                                                                                    brand grows?
               50%

               40%                                                               2. Where do Facebook
               30%                                                                  fans come from?
                                                                                 3. How can digital
                                                                                    analytics help to
               20%

               10%
                                                                                    develop strategies
               0%                                                                   for less loyal
                              25%          50%            75%
                                                                  Share of          groups?
                                                                  requirements
measure              fringe     Only OK       preferred     “engaged”
% Buyers             12         5             4             5

Your brand share     2          34            60            90
of group
% sales              19         17            21            43
• Applied in marketing
  research analytics to TURF
  analysis problems and
  regression modeling to
  determine relative value of
  different predictor variables
  in the face of
  multicollinearity
• A possible tool for
  attribution analysis?
   Experimental design used to understand the
          relative impact of an attribute on choice
          ◦ Example:
                 Brand X, Y, Z
                 Protein, no protein
                 Different price levels (low, medium, high)
                 Packaging (resealable, not resealable)
         Couldn’t this work for display advertising?
          ◦   Image, no image
          ◦   Rich, not rich
          ◦   Ad unit format
          ◦   Media placement approach


                                                               14
Rubinson Partners, Inc.
   Judah and I see great value in an open source
       community for all that we call “arrow” (Analytics
       Research Organization), http://www.thearo.org/
       ◦ ARO ("arrow") brings together professionals globally
         and locally from marketing research, digital analytics,
         modelers, predictive analytics, business analytics and
         other experts who are interested in consumer and
         shopper data, big data, digital analytics, traditional
         media analytics, media mix modeling and other forms
         of research and analysis.




                                                                   15
Rubinson Partners, Inc.

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1130 omma metrics joel rubinson

  • 1. Joel Rubinson February 21, 2012 Joelrubinson@gmail.com Blog.joelrubinson.net Twitter: @joelrubinson The ideas expressed are the property of Rubinson Partners, Inc. 1
  • 2. Donna is a researcher (now called insights)  Donna is Vice President, Consumer & Market Insights, Unilever, Americas  When I asked what she does for a living, she said…”I sell soap. Research is just what I do”. 2 Rubinson Partners, Inc.
  • 3. Research is about informing brand strategy and marketing action in a grounded way…evidence, analytics, insights ◦ How do I grow brand sales effectively and efficiently? ◦ How do I create brand loyalty? ◦ How do people use my brand? ◦ How do people shop? ◦ How do target consumers consume and respond to media? Rubinson Partners, Inc.
  • 4. A digital river of information •fed by numerous tributaries •Reflecting changing societal values, lifestyle trends, and brand engagement •Mostly naturally occurring, on-going 24/7 •Some tributaries are “man-made” and proprietary like a brand tracker •Start research with river rather than projects 4 Rubinson Partners, Inc.
  • 5. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYfbjZ mk2VQ 5 Rubinson Partners, Inc.
  • 6. The value of forensic analysis ◦ Massive databases of actual behavior, native to the process, have been proven to have great insights value…DunnHumby frequent shopper data. ◦ Digital is native to the shopping process for offline purchases (as well as TV is native to online).  Must be studied  Impact must be measured  Rich in forensic insights  Instead of an attribute rating on “dinner ideas”, ask..when people search for “dinner ideas” where do they wind up? 6 Rubinson Partners, Inc.
  • 7. Brand tracking needs to position brands to succeed in the digital future 7 Rubinson Partners, Inc.
  • 8. While valuable for brand imagery and traditional media, brand survey tracking is too slow, sample sizes are insufficient, and recall is inaccurate for owned and earned media. ◦ The promise of digital is real time, and you must sense the naturally occurring digital signals to respond instantly. With brand tracker data, all measures are strongly correlated to market share. Social media and digital data look nothing like that. Ex: although Starbucks is only twice as large as Dunkin Donuts, it has more than 10X the buzz 8 Rubinson Partners, Inc.
  • 9. Marketing is losing a handle on how much brand communication is out there ◦ Paid ◦ Owned ◦ Earned  Hard to measure ◦ Marketing mix modeling usually done at a market level ◦ Owned media is way undervalued ◦ Earned media impressions is way larger than social media comments (but much less than Facebook would lead you to believe!) ◦ And what about search impressions? 9 Rubinson Partners, Inc.
  • 10. We need to learn from each other ◦ Advanced analytic tools used by research can benefit digital analytics  Loyalty modeling  Game theory statistics  Conjoint analytics ◦ Understanding digital possibilities will benefit research analytics 10 Rubinson Partners, Inc.
  • 11. Share of Requirements distribution for a 10% share brand; avg. category purchase cycle of 12x/year % category 70% buyers 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Share of 25% 50% 75% requirements
  • 12. Share of Requirements distribution for a 10% share brand; avg. category purchase cycle of 12x/year % category 70% 1. Which loyalty buyers 60% segments grow and which decline as the brand grows? 50% 40% 2. Where do Facebook 30% fans come from? 3. How can digital analytics help to 20% 10% develop strategies 0% for less loyal 25% 50% 75% Share of groups? requirements measure fringe Only OK preferred “engaged” % Buyers 12 5 4 5 Your brand share 2 34 60 90 of group % sales 19 17 21 43
  • 13. • Applied in marketing research analytics to TURF analysis problems and regression modeling to determine relative value of different predictor variables in the face of multicollinearity • A possible tool for attribution analysis?
  • 14. Experimental design used to understand the relative impact of an attribute on choice ◦ Example:  Brand X, Y, Z  Protein, no protein  Different price levels (low, medium, high)  Packaging (resealable, not resealable)  Couldn’t this work for display advertising? ◦ Image, no image ◦ Rich, not rich ◦ Ad unit format ◦ Media placement approach 14 Rubinson Partners, Inc.
  • 15. Judah and I see great value in an open source community for all that we call “arrow” (Analytics Research Organization), http://www.thearo.org/ ◦ ARO ("arrow") brings together professionals globally and locally from marketing research, digital analytics, modelers, predictive analytics, business analytics and other experts who are interested in consumer and shopper data, big data, digital analytics, traditional media analytics, media mix modeling and other forms of research and analysis. 15 Rubinson Partners, Inc.

Editor's Notes

  1. Quincy md
  2. Game theory
  3. People and other organizations. Open source sergei--