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Business Process Reengineering,
Supply Chain Management & ERP
Applying Sales & Operation Planning on MS Excel
How to use MS Solver to Optimize your solution
Presented by
Dr. Eng. Samir Lotfi ALI
Managing Director
Management & Development Center (M&DC)
Address: #56, Misr Hilwan Road, Badr Tower, Cairo, Egypt
Voice : (+202) 27509755, (+202) 23594940
Fax : (+202) 23581733
Mobile: (+2) 01001790797
Email: s.ali@mdcegypt.com
Web site: www.mdcegypt.com
‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP)
• Translates the strategic business Plan into production rates that
meet business goals
• Continually updates the production, Financial, and Sales Plan.
• Seeks input from various functions
• Regular (such as monthly) meeting with senior executives to
resolve tradeoffs
• Checks availability of resources to validate the production plan
2Sales and Operation Planning S&OP
‫تخطيط‬‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP)
•‫األهداف‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫لتحقيق‬ ‫إنتاج‬ ‫معدالت‬ ‫إلى‬ ‫األعمال‬ ‫وخطة‬ ‫االستراتيجية‬ ‫الخطة‬ ‫يترجم‬
•‫المت‬ ‫المالية‬ ‫والنتائج‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫وخطط‬ ‫البيع‬ ‫وتوقعات‬ ‫خطط‬ ‫بتحديث‬ ‫باستمرار‬ ‫يقوم‬‫رتبة‬
•‫الشركة‬ ‫في‬ ‫الرئيسية‬ ‫الوظائف‬ ‫كل‬ ‫من‬ ‫بياناته‬ ‫يستخرج‬
•‫بي‬ ‫الموازنة‬ ‫لتحقيق‬ ‫العليا‬ ‫اإلدارة‬ ‫أشراف‬ ‫تحت‬ ‫شهرية‬ ‫وبصورة‬ ‫العام‬ ‫بداية‬ ‫قبل‬ ‫يتم‬‫كل‬ ‫ن‬
‫الوظائف‬
•‫الخطة‬ ‫لتحقيق‬ ‫الالزمة‬ ‫الكافية‬ ‫والمستلزمات‬ ‫والخامات‬ ‫الموارد‬ ‫نوفر‬ ‫من‬ ‫ويتأكد‬ ‫يراجع‬
3Sales and Operation Planning S&OP
S&OP Phases ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬ ‫ات‬‫و‬‫خط‬
Phase 1: Choosing Strategy
• Choose the Basic Strategy: (Level, Chase, or Hybrid)
• Level plans:
• Use a constant workforce & produce similar quantities each time period.
• Use inventories & backorders to absorb demand peaks & valleys
• Chase plans:
• Minimize finished good inventories by trying to keep pace with demand
fluctuations
•‫األولى‬ ‫المرحلة‬:‫االستراتيجية‬ ‫اختيار‬
•‫الطلب‬ ‫مالحقة‬ ‫متابعة‬ ‫بين‬ ‫المفاضلة‬Chase‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫حجم‬ ‫تثبيت‬ ‫أو‬ ‫السوق‬ ‫في‬Level‫أو‬
‫االستراتيجيتين‬ ‫من‬ ‫المزيج‬
•‫الطل‬ ‫مالحقة‬ ‫بين‬ ‫المزيج‬ ‫هي‬ ‫الشركة‬ ‫تتبعها‬ ‫والتي‬ ‫األمثل‬ ‫االستراتيجية‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ونعتقد‬‫ب‬Chase‫مع‬
‫التكلفة‬ ‫لتقليل‬ ‫الخامات‬ ‫من‬ ‫المخزون‬ ‫مستويات‬ ‫تقليل‬ ‫على‬ ‫المداومة‬
4Sales and Operation Planning S&OP
S&OP Phases ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬ ‫ات‬‫و‬‫خط‬
Phase 2: Defining Requirements, Capacities and Costs
• Forecast Demand for each period
• Determine Capacities (regular time, overtime, subcontracting) for each
period
• Determine Costs (regular time, overtime, subcontracting, holding
Inventories, back orders, lay off )
• Identify Pertaining Policies (Safety Stock Level, Min. & Max. production
level …)
•‫الثانية‬ ‫المرحلة‬:‫والتكلفة‬ ‫والطاقات‬ ‫االحتياجات‬ ‫تحديد‬
•‫القادمة‬ ‫الشهور‬ ‫مدى‬ ‫على‬ ‫الطلب‬ ‫توقع‬
•‫شهريا‬ ‫وتكلفتها‬ ‫المطلوبة‬ ‫اإلنتاجية‬ ‫الطاقات‬ ‫تحديد‬
•‫طاقة‬ ‫وأكبر‬ ‫أقل‬ ،‫األمان‬ ‫مخزون‬ ،‫مخزون‬ ‫حجم‬ ‫وأكبر‬ ‫أقل‬ ‫مثل‬ ‫المتبعة‬ ‫السياسات‬ ‫تحديد‬
‫إنتاجية‬..‫الخ‬
5Sales and Operation Planning S&OP
S&OP Phases ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬ ‫ات‬‫و‬‫خط‬
Phase 3: Develop alternatives plans and compute cost of each alternative
• Calculate the size of the workforce needed
• Calculate period-to-period inventory levels, shortages, expected hiring &
firings, and overtime
• Calculate period-by-period costs, then sum for total costs of the plan
• Select the one with that satisfies objective balancing demand with Supply)
with the least total cost.
• Evaluate the plan’s impact on customer service and human resource
•‫الثالثة‬ ‫المرحلة‬:‫بديل‬ ‫كل‬ ‫تكلفة‬ ‫وحساب‬ ‫البديلة‬ ‫الخطط‬ ‫تحديد‬
•‫شهر‬ ‫كل‬ ‫في‬ ‫المخزون‬ ‫ومستوى‬ ‫والعمالة‬ ‫اإلنتاجية‬ ‫الطاقات‬ ‫تحديد‬
•‫الربح‬ ‫وهامش‬ ‫العائد‬ ‫وحساب‬ ‫الكلية‬ ‫والتكلفة‬ ‫الشهرية‬ ‫الخطة‬ ‫بدائل‬ ‫تكلفة‬ ‫حساب‬
•‫بديل‬ ‫كل‬ ‫في‬ ‫المتوقع‬ ‫الخدمة‬ ‫مستوى‬ ‫حساب‬Service Level
•‫البدائل‬ ‫أنسب‬ ‫لتحديد‬ ‫األعمال‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫بمستهدفات‬ ‫بديل‬ ‫كل‬ ‫مقارنة‬
6Sales and Operation Planning S&OP
‫مخرجات‬‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬S&OP Outputs
• Consensus Forecast
• Changes Required in Production Plan
• Projected Inventory Level and Days On Hand
• Projected Service level
• Changes Required in Material Supply
• Changes Required in Product Availability
• Total Cost of the Plan
•‫عليه‬ ‫االتفاق‬ ‫تم‬ ‫الذي‬ ‫المبيعات‬ ‫توقع‬
•‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫في‬ ‫التعديالت‬
•‫استهالك‬ ‫وبأيام‬ ‫بالكمية‬ ‫المتوقعة‬ ‫المخزون‬ ‫مستويات‬
•‫المتوقع‬ ‫الخدمة‬ ‫مستوى‬Service level
•‫التوريدات‬ ‫خطط‬ ‫في‬ ‫المطلوبة‬ ‫التعديالت‬
•‫السنوية‬ ‫األعمال‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫بمستهدفات‬ ‫ومقارنتها‬ ‫والهامش‬ ‫والعائد‬ ‫الكلية‬ ‫الخطة‬ ‫تكلفة‬
7
1 George Palmatier, Oliver Wight, Arnold Mark Wells CPIM SAP Americas, Sales & Operations Planning Webcast
Sales and Operation Planning S&OP
‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP)
Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 8
‫أوال‬:‫المخزون‬ ‫أيام‬ ‫لعدد‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬
1. Maximize Production Quantity within Max and Min Days of Supply
SALES Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Total 12
month
Business
Plan
New Forecast 61,746 49,327 60,500 27,352 46,690 75,804 66,956 54,971 67,562 61,752 47,425 40,053
OPERATIONS Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Min
Production
Max
Production
Total
Production
New Plan 58,744 56,720 55,070 51,420 68,560 67,243 63,546 59,042 55,378 51,714 46,494 41,273 35,000 70,000 675,203
INVENTORY Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Min
Inventory
Max
Inventory
Average
Inventory
Plan 29,997 37,390 31,960 56,028 77,898 69,337 65,926 69,998 57,814 47,776 46,844 48,064 53,253
Actual
Days Supply 15 15 29 30 26 26 30 26 21 25 25 30 15 30
Service Level 62% 77% 66% 116% 161% 143% 136% 145% 120% 99% 97% 99% 90% 100%
Forecast
‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP)
Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 9
‫أوال‬:‫المخزون‬ ‫أيام‬ ‫لعدد‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬
1. Maximize Production Quantity within Max and Min Days of Supply
‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP)
Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 10
15 15
29 30
26 26
30
26
21
25 25
30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
S&OP Chase within a Range
of Days on Hand
Demand Forecast
Priduction Plan
Stokc Level
Days On Hand
‫أوال‬:‫المخزون‬ ‫أيام‬ ‫لعدد‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬
1. Maximize Production Quantity within Max and Min Days of Supply
‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP)
Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 11
Month Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Total 12
month
Targets
Sales
Revenue
92,619,514.75 73,989,890.06 90,750,000.00 41,027,668.40 70,035,236.88
113,706,749.53 100,434,698.71
82,455,844.41
101,343,008.85
92,628,216.38 71,137,596.65 60,080,220.98
990,208,645.60 1,200,000,000
Production
Cost 58,743,638 56,719,772 55,069,682 51,419,814 68,560,190 67,243,244 63,545,845 59,042,258 55,377,997 51,713,736 46,493,611 41,273,487 675,203,273.85 700,000,000
Inventory
Cost 5,999,459 7,478,095 6,392,031 11,205,638 15,579,645 13,867,393 13,185,269 13,999,608 11,562,806 9,555,125 9,368,834 9,612,835 127,806,739.25 102,245,391
Margin 27,876,417 9,792,024 29,288,286 (21,597,784) (14,104,597) 32,596,112 23,703,585 9,413,979 34,402,206 31,359,355 15,275,151 9,193,899 187,198,632.50 397,754,609
‫أوال‬:‫المخزون‬ ‫أيام‬ ‫لعدد‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬
1. Maximize Production Quantity within Max and Min Days of Supply
‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP)
Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 12
Inventory Cost
Margin
Sales Revenue
Production Cost
(40,000,000)
(20,000,000)
-
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
S&OP with Days On hand Range, Finanacial Targets, Budget & Cash Flow
Inventory Cost Margin Sales Revenue Production Cost
‫أوال‬:‫المخزون‬ ‫أيام‬ ‫لعدد‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬
1. Maximize Production Quantity within Max and Min Days of Supply
‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP)
Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 13
‫ثانيا‬:‫الخدمة‬ ‫لمستوى‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬Service Level
2. Maximize Production quantity within a mx and min Service level
SALES Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Total 12
month
Business
Plan
New Forecast 61,746 49,327 60,500 27,352 46,690 75,804 66,956 54,971 67,562 61,752 47,425 40,053
OPERATIONS Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Min
Production
Max
Production
Total
Production
New Plan 70,000 51,580 60,500 30,000 48,876 70,000 70,000 55,146 68,686 58,380 49,347 41,994 30,000 70,000 674,508
SALES Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Min
Inventory
Max
Inventory
Average
Inventory
Plan 41,254 43,507 43,507 46,155 48,341 42,536 45,580 45,755 46,879 43,507 45,428 47,369 44,985
Actual
Days Supply 21 18 40 25 16 16 21 17 17 18 24 30 15 30
Service Level 85% 90% 90% 95% 100% 88% 94% 95% 97% 90% 94% 98% 90% 100%
Forecast
‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP)
Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 14
‫ثانيا‬:‫الخدمة‬ ‫لمستوى‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬Service Level
2. Maximize Production quantity within a mx and min Service level
‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP)
Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 15
85%
90% 90%
95%
100%
88%
94% 95% 97%
90%
94%
98%
40%
140%
240%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Gas Cooker S&OP Chase & Service Level
Demand Forecast
Production Plan
Stokc Level
Service Level
‫ثانيا‬:‫الخدمة‬ ‫لمستوى‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬Service Level
2. Maximize Production quantity within a mx and min Service level
‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP)
Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 16
‫ثانيا‬:‫الخدمة‬ ‫لمستوى‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬Service Level
Month Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Sales Revenue
92,619,515 73,989,890 90,750,000 41,027,668 70,035,237 113,706,750 100,434,699 82,455,844 101,343,009 92,628,216 71,137,597 60,080,221
Production Cost
70,000,000 51,579,709 60,500,000 30,000,000 48,876,023 70,000,000 70,000,000 55,145,721 68,685,732 58,380,140 49,346,772 41,993,865
Inventory Cost
8,250,731 8,701,355 8,701,355 9,230,999 9,668,172 8,507,272 9,115,979 9,151,010 9,375,755 8,701,355 9,085,696 9,473,773
Margin
14,368,783 13,708,826 21,548,645 1,796,670 11,491,042 35,199,478 21,318,720 18,159,114 23,281,521 25,546,722 12,705,128 8,612,583
‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP)
Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 17
Margin
Sales Revenue
Production Cost
-
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
S&OP Service Level, Financial Target, Budget & Cash Flwo
Inventory Cost Margin Sales Revenue Production Cost
‫ثانيا‬:‫الخدمة‬ ‫لمستوى‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬Service Level
2. Maximize Production quantity within a mx and min Service level
‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP)
Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 18
‫ثالثا‬:‫المخزون‬ ‫أيام‬ ‫عدد‬ ‫بي‬ ‫المالية‬ ‫المقارنة‬Days On Hand‫و‬‫مستوى‬‫الخدمة‬Service Level
3.Financial evaluation for days on hand and service level
12 Month Result Service Level Days On Hand Targets
Sales Revenue 990,208,646 990,208,646 1,200,000,000
Production Cost 674,507,962 675,203,274 700,000,000
Inventory Cost 107,963,451 127,806,739 86,370,761
Margin 207,737,233 187,198,633 413,629,239
S&OP Business Summery
19Sales and Operation Planning S&OP
‫المخزون‬ ‫مستويات‬ ‫انخفاض‬ .2 ‫حديثة‬ ‫بتكنولجيا‬ ‫منافسة‬ ‫منتجات‬ ‫نزول‬ .2 ‫كة‬ ‫ر‬‫الش‬ ‫متطلبات‬ ‫الستيعاب‬ ‫الموارد‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫نظام‬ ‫تفعيل‬ .2
‫المخزون‬ ‫ان‬‫ر‬‫دو‬ ‫معدل‬ ‫ي‬‫ف‬ ‫التحسن‬ .3
‫الطلب‬ ‫تنفيذ‬ ‫وزمن‬ ‫االستجابة‬ ‫رسعة‬ ‫ي‬‫ف‬ ‫التحسن‬ .1 ‫للصيانة‬ ‫ع‬‫أسبو‬ ‫لمدة‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫خط‬ ‫توقف‬ .1 ‫للمنتج‬ ‫الكلية‬ ‫التكلفة‬ ‫تقليل‬ ‫نامج‬‫ر‬‫ب‬ .1
Major Changes in this Month
‫الشهر‬ ‫هذا‬ ‫ئيسية‬‫ر‬‫ال‬ ‫ات‬ ‫ر‬‫التغي‬
Emerging Issues and Gaps (in Data)
‫المعلومات‬ ‫ي‬‫ف‬ ‫وفجوات‬ ‫ئة‬‫ر‬‫طا‬‫أمور‬
Decision Required Recommendation and Cost
‫والتكلفة‬ ‫مطلوبة‬ ‫ات‬‫ر‬‫ا‬‫ر‬‫ق‬
‫ي‬‫ترويج‬ ‫نشاط‬ ‫أي‬ ‫اج‬‫ر‬‫أد‬ ‫يتم‬ ‫لم‬ .4 ‫المبيعات‬ ‫عىل‬‫تؤثر‬ ‫الطاقة‬‫أسعار‬ ‫تفاع‬‫ر‬‫ا‬ .4
‫الكلية‬ ‫النتائج‬ ‫أحسن‬ ‫أعطت‬ Service level ‫الخدمة‬ ‫مستوى‬ ‫طريقة‬ .2 ‫منافسة‬ ‫منتجات‬ ‫نزول‬ .2 ‫اكد‬‫ر‬‫ال‬ ‫المخزون‬ ‫مع‬ ‫والتعامل‬ ‫المخزون‬ ‫تكلفة‬ ‫تقليل‬ .2
‫جديدية‬ ‫منتجات‬ ‫إدارج‬ ‫يتم‬ ‫لم‬ .3 ‫أخرى‬ ‫مرة‬‫الدوالر‬‫سعر‬ ‫تفاع‬‫ر‬‫ا‬ .3
Downward ‫التوقع‬ ‫أسلوب‬ ‫استخدام‬ ‫تم‬ .1 ‫السوق‬ ‫ي‬‫ف‬ ‫الفجائية‬ ‫ات‬ ‫ر‬‫التغي‬ .1 ‫التكلفة‬ ‫لتقليل‬ ‫البدائل‬ ‫استخدام‬ ‫ي‬‫ف‬ ‫التوسع‬ .1
Major Assumptions (in Data)
‫ئيسية‬‫ر‬‫ال‬ ‫اضات‬ ‫ر‬‫االفي‬
Risks & Opportunities
‫والفرص‬‫المخاطر‬
Decisosn Made in prevuoius Steps
‫السابقة‬ ‫ات‬‫ر‬‫ا‬‫ر‬‫الق‬
85%
90% 90%
95% 100%
88%
94% 95% 97%
90% 94% 98%
40%
140%
240%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Gas Cooker S&OP Chase & Service Level
Demand Forecast
Production Plan
Stokc Level
Service Level
Margin
Sales Revenue
Production Cost
-
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
S&OP Service Level, Financial Target, Budget & Cash Flwo

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Optimizing sales &and operation planning by ms solver

  • 1. Business Process Reengineering, Supply Chain Management & ERP Applying Sales & Operation Planning on MS Excel How to use MS Solver to Optimize your solution Presented by Dr. Eng. Samir Lotfi ALI Managing Director Management & Development Center (M&DC) Address: #56, Misr Hilwan Road, Badr Tower, Cairo, Egypt Voice : (+202) 27509755, (+202) 23594940 Fax : (+202) 23581733 Mobile: (+2) 01001790797 Email: s.ali@mdcegypt.com Web site: www.mdcegypt.com
  • 2. ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP) • Translates the strategic business Plan into production rates that meet business goals • Continually updates the production, Financial, and Sales Plan. • Seeks input from various functions • Regular (such as monthly) meeting with senior executives to resolve tradeoffs • Checks availability of resources to validate the production plan 2Sales and Operation Planning S&OP
  • 3. ‫تخطيط‬‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP) •‫األهداف‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫لتحقيق‬ ‫إنتاج‬ ‫معدالت‬ ‫إلى‬ ‫األعمال‬ ‫وخطة‬ ‫االستراتيجية‬ ‫الخطة‬ ‫يترجم‬ •‫المت‬ ‫المالية‬ ‫والنتائج‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫وخطط‬ ‫البيع‬ ‫وتوقعات‬ ‫خطط‬ ‫بتحديث‬ ‫باستمرار‬ ‫يقوم‬‫رتبة‬ •‫الشركة‬ ‫في‬ ‫الرئيسية‬ ‫الوظائف‬ ‫كل‬ ‫من‬ ‫بياناته‬ ‫يستخرج‬ •‫بي‬ ‫الموازنة‬ ‫لتحقيق‬ ‫العليا‬ ‫اإلدارة‬ ‫أشراف‬ ‫تحت‬ ‫شهرية‬ ‫وبصورة‬ ‫العام‬ ‫بداية‬ ‫قبل‬ ‫يتم‬‫كل‬ ‫ن‬ ‫الوظائف‬ •‫الخطة‬ ‫لتحقيق‬ ‫الالزمة‬ ‫الكافية‬ ‫والمستلزمات‬ ‫والخامات‬ ‫الموارد‬ ‫نوفر‬ ‫من‬ ‫ويتأكد‬ ‫يراجع‬ 3Sales and Operation Planning S&OP
  • 4. S&OP Phases ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬ ‫ات‬‫و‬‫خط‬ Phase 1: Choosing Strategy • Choose the Basic Strategy: (Level, Chase, or Hybrid) • Level plans: • Use a constant workforce & produce similar quantities each time period. • Use inventories & backorders to absorb demand peaks & valleys • Chase plans: • Minimize finished good inventories by trying to keep pace with demand fluctuations •‫األولى‬ ‫المرحلة‬:‫االستراتيجية‬ ‫اختيار‬ •‫الطلب‬ ‫مالحقة‬ ‫متابعة‬ ‫بين‬ ‫المفاضلة‬Chase‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫حجم‬ ‫تثبيت‬ ‫أو‬ ‫السوق‬ ‫في‬Level‫أو‬ ‫االستراتيجيتين‬ ‫من‬ ‫المزيج‬ •‫الطل‬ ‫مالحقة‬ ‫بين‬ ‫المزيج‬ ‫هي‬ ‫الشركة‬ ‫تتبعها‬ ‫والتي‬ ‫األمثل‬ ‫االستراتيجية‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ونعتقد‬‫ب‬Chase‫مع‬ ‫التكلفة‬ ‫لتقليل‬ ‫الخامات‬ ‫من‬ ‫المخزون‬ ‫مستويات‬ ‫تقليل‬ ‫على‬ ‫المداومة‬ 4Sales and Operation Planning S&OP
  • 5. S&OP Phases ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬ ‫ات‬‫و‬‫خط‬ Phase 2: Defining Requirements, Capacities and Costs • Forecast Demand for each period • Determine Capacities (regular time, overtime, subcontracting) for each period • Determine Costs (regular time, overtime, subcontracting, holding Inventories, back orders, lay off ) • Identify Pertaining Policies (Safety Stock Level, Min. & Max. production level …) •‫الثانية‬ ‫المرحلة‬:‫والتكلفة‬ ‫والطاقات‬ ‫االحتياجات‬ ‫تحديد‬ •‫القادمة‬ ‫الشهور‬ ‫مدى‬ ‫على‬ ‫الطلب‬ ‫توقع‬ •‫شهريا‬ ‫وتكلفتها‬ ‫المطلوبة‬ ‫اإلنتاجية‬ ‫الطاقات‬ ‫تحديد‬ •‫طاقة‬ ‫وأكبر‬ ‫أقل‬ ،‫األمان‬ ‫مخزون‬ ،‫مخزون‬ ‫حجم‬ ‫وأكبر‬ ‫أقل‬ ‫مثل‬ ‫المتبعة‬ ‫السياسات‬ ‫تحديد‬ ‫إنتاجية‬..‫الخ‬ 5Sales and Operation Planning S&OP
  • 6. S&OP Phases ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬ ‫ات‬‫و‬‫خط‬ Phase 3: Develop alternatives plans and compute cost of each alternative • Calculate the size of the workforce needed • Calculate period-to-period inventory levels, shortages, expected hiring & firings, and overtime • Calculate period-by-period costs, then sum for total costs of the plan • Select the one with that satisfies objective balancing demand with Supply) with the least total cost. • Evaluate the plan’s impact on customer service and human resource •‫الثالثة‬ ‫المرحلة‬:‫بديل‬ ‫كل‬ ‫تكلفة‬ ‫وحساب‬ ‫البديلة‬ ‫الخطط‬ ‫تحديد‬ •‫شهر‬ ‫كل‬ ‫في‬ ‫المخزون‬ ‫ومستوى‬ ‫والعمالة‬ ‫اإلنتاجية‬ ‫الطاقات‬ ‫تحديد‬ •‫الربح‬ ‫وهامش‬ ‫العائد‬ ‫وحساب‬ ‫الكلية‬ ‫والتكلفة‬ ‫الشهرية‬ ‫الخطة‬ ‫بدائل‬ ‫تكلفة‬ ‫حساب‬ •‫بديل‬ ‫كل‬ ‫في‬ ‫المتوقع‬ ‫الخدمة‬ ‫مستوى‬ ‫حساب‬Service Level •‫البدائل‬ ‫أنسب‬ ‫لتحديد‬ ‫األعمال‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫بمستهدفات‬ ‫بديل‬ ‫كل‬ ‫مقارنة‬ 6Sales and Operation Planning S&OP
  • 7. ‫مخرجات‬‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬S&OP Outputs • Consensus Forecast • Changes Required in Production Plan • Projected Inventory Level and Days On Hand • Projected Service level • Changes Required in Material Supply • Changes Required in Product Availability • Total Cost of the Plan •‫عليه‬ ‫االتفاق‬ ‫تم‬ ‫الذي‬ ‫المبيعات‬ ‫توقع‬ •‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫في‬ ‫التعديالت‬ •‫استهالك‬ ‫وبأيام‬ ‫بالكمية‬ ‫المتوقعة‬ ‫المخزون‬ ‫مستويات‬ •‫المتوقع‬ ‫الخدمة‬ ‫مستوى‬Service level •‫التوريدات‬ ‫خطط‬ ‫في‬ ‫المطلوبة‬ ‫التعديالت‬ •‫السنوية‬ ‫األعمال‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫بمستهدفات‬ ‫ومقارنتها‬ ‫والهامش‬ ‫والعائد‬ ‫الكلية‬ ‫الخطة‬ ‫تكلفة‬ 7 1 George Palmatier, Oliver Wight, Arnold Mark Wells CPIM SAP Americas, Sales & Operations Planning Webcast Sales and Operation Planning S&OP
  • 8. ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP) Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 8 ‫أوال‬:‫المخزون‬ ‫أيام‬ ‫لعدد‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬ 1. Maximize Production Quantity within Max and Min Days of Supply SALES Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Total 12 month Business Plan New Forecast 61,746 49,327 60,500 27,352 46,690 75,804 66,956 54,971 67,562 61,752 47,425 40,053 OPERATIONS Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Min Production Max Production Total Production New Plan 58,744 56,720 55,070 51,420 68,560 67,243 63,546 59,042 55,378 51,714 46,494 41,273 35,000 70,000 675,203 INVENTORY Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Min Inventory Max Inventory Average Inventory Plan 29,997 37,390 31,960 56,028 77,898 69,337 65,926 69,998 57,814 47,776 46,844 48,064 53,253 Actual Days Supply 15 15 29 30 26 26 30 26 21 25 25 30 15 30 Service Level 62% 77% 66% 116% 161% 143% 136% 145% 120% 99% 97% 99% 90% 100% Forecast
  • 9. ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP) Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 9 ‫أوال‬:‫المخزون‬ ‫أيام‬ ‫لعدد‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬ 1. Maximize Production Quantity within Max and Min Days of Supply
  • 10. ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP) Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 10 15 15 29 30 26 26 30 26 21 25 25 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 S&OP Chase within a Range of Days on Hand Demand Forecast Priduction Plan Stokc Level Days On Hand ‫أوال‬:‫المخزون‬ ‫أيام‬ ‫لعدد‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬ 1. Maximize Production Quantity within Max and Min Days of Supply
  • 11. ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP) Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 11 Month Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Total 12 month Targets Sales Revenue 92,619,514.75 73,989,890.06 90,750,000.00 41,027,668.40 70,035,236.88 113,706,749.53 100,434,698.71 82,455,844.41 101,343,008.85 92,628,216.38 71,137,596.65 60,080,220.98 990,208,645.60 1,200,000,000 Production Cost 58,743,638 56,719,772 55,069,682 51,419,814 68,560,190 67,243,244 63,545,845 59,042,258 55,377,997 51,713,736 46,493,611 41,273,487 675,203,273.85 700,000,000 Inventory Cost 5,999,459 7,478,095 6,392,031 11,205,638 15,579,645 13,867,393 13,185,269 13,999,608 11,562,806 9,555,125 9,368,834 9,612,835 127,806,739.25 102,245,391 Margin 27,876,417 9,792,024 29,288,286 (21,597,784) (14,104,597) 32,596,112 23,703,585 9,413,979 34,402,206 31,359,355 15,275,151 9,193,899 187,198,632.50 397,754,609 ‫أوال‬:‫المخزون‬ ‫أيام‬ ‫لعدد‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬ 1. Maximize Production Quantity within Max and Min Days of Supply
  • 12. ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP) Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 12 Inventory Cost Margin Sales Revenue Production Cost (40,000,000) (20,000,000) - 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 S&OP with Days On hand Range, Finanacial Targets, Budget & Cash Flow Inventory Cost Margin Sales Revenue Production Cost ‫أوال‬:‫المخزون‬ ‫أيام‬ ‫لعدد‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬ 1. Maximize Production Quantity within Max and Min Days of Supply
  • 13. ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP) Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 13 ‫ثانيا‬:‫الخدمة‬ ‫لمستوى‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬Service Level 2. Maximize Production quantity within a mx and min Service level SALES Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Total 12 month Business Plan New Forecast 61,746 49,327 60,500 27,352 46,690 75,804 66,956 54,971 67,562 61,752 47,425 40,053 OPERATIONS Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Min Production Max Production Total Production New Plan 70,000 51,580 60,500 30,000 48,876 70,000 70,000 55,146 68,686 58,380 49,347 41,994 30,000 70,000 674,508 SALES Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Min Inventory Max Inventory Average Inventory Plan 41,254 43,507 43,507 46,155 48,341 42,536 45,580 45,755 46,879 43,507 45,428 47,369 44,985 Actual Days Supply 21 18 40 25 16 16 21 17 17 18 24 30 15 30 Service Level 85% 90% 90% 95% 100% 88% 94% 95% 97% 90% 94% 98% 90% 100% Forecast
  • 14. ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP) Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 14 ‫ثانيا‬:‫الخدمة‬ ‫لمستوى‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬Service Level 2. Maximize Production quantity within a mx and min Service level
  • 15. ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP) Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 15 85% 90% 90% 95% 100% 88% 94% 95% 97% 90% 94% 98% 40% 140% 240% - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Gas Cooker S&OP Chase & Service Level Demand Forecast Production Plan Stokc Level Service Level ‫ثانيا‬:‫الخدمة‬ ‫لمستوى‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬Service Level 2. Maximize Production quantity within a mx and min Service level
  • 16. ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP) Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 16 ‫ثانيا‬:‫الخدمة‬ ‫لمستوى‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬Service Level Month Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sales Revenue 92,619,515 73,989,890 90,750,000 41,027,668 70,035,237 113,706,750 100,434,699 82,455,844 101,343,009 92,628,216 71,137,597 60,080,221 Production Cost 70,000,000 51,579,709 60,500,000 30,000,000 48,876,023 70,000,000 70,000,000 55,145,721 68,685,732 58,380,140 49,346,772 41,993,865 Inventory Cost 8,250,731 8,701,355 8,701,355 9,230,999 9,668,172 8,507,272 9,115,979 9,151,010 9,375,755 8,701,355 9,085,696 9,473,773 Margin 14,368,783 13,708,826 21,548,645 1,796,670 11,491,042 35,199,478 21,318,720 18,159,114 23,281,521 25,546,722 12,705,128 8,612,583
  • 17. ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP) Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 17 Margin Sales Revenue Production Cost - 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 S&OP Service Level, Financial Target, Budget & Cash Flwo Inventory Cost Margin Sales Revenue Production Cost ‫ثانيا‬:‫الخدمة‬ ‫لمستوى‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ر‬‫وكب‬ ‫صغري‬ ‫حدود‬ ‫ي‬‫وف‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫كمية‬ ‫تعظيم‬ ‫مع‬Service Level 2. Maximize Production quantity within a mx and min Service level
  • 18. ‫المبيعات‬‫و‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫تخطيط‬Sales & Operation Plan (S&OP) Sales and Operation Planning S&OP 18 ‫ثالثا‬:‫المخزون‬ ‫أيام‬ ‫عدد‬ ‫بي‬ ‫المالية‬ ‫المقارنة‬Days On Hand‫و‬‫مستوى‬‫الخدمة‬Service Level 3.Financial evaluation for days on hand and service level 12 Month Result Service Level Days On Hand Targets Sales Revenue 990,208,646 990,208,646 1,200,000,000 Production Cost 674,507,962 675,203,274 700,000,000 Inventory Cost 107,963,451 127,806,739 86,370,761 Margin 207,737,233 187,198,633 413,629,239
  • 19. S&OP Business Summery 19Sales and Operation Planning S&OP ‫المخزون‬ ‫مستويات‬ ‫انخفاض‬ .2 ‫حديثة‬ ‫بتكنولجيا‬ ‫منافسة‬ ‫منتجات‬ ‫نزول‬ .2 ‫كة‬ ‫ر‬‫الش‬ ‫متطلبات‬ ‫الستيعاب‬ ‫الموارد‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫نظام‬ ‫تفعيل‬ .2 ‫المخزون‬ ‫ان‬‫ر‬‫دو‬ ‫معدل‬ ‫ي‬‫ف‬ ‫التحسن‬ .3 ‫الطلب‬ ‫تنفيذ‬ ‫وزمن‬ ‫االستجابة‬ ‫رسعة‬ ‫ي‬‫ف‬ ‫التحسن‬ .1 ‫للصيانة‬ ‫ع‬‫أسبو‬ ‫لمدة‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫خط‬ ‫توقف‬ .1 ‫للمنتج‬ ‫الكلية‬ ‫التكلفة‬ ‫تقليل‬ ‫نامج‬‫ر‬‫ب‬ .1 Major Changes in this Month ‫الشهر‬ ‫هذا‬ ‫ئيسية‬‫ر‬‫ال‬ ‫ات‬ ‫ر‬‫التغي‬ Emerging Issues and Gaps (in Data) ‫المعلومات‬ ‫ي‬‫ف‬ ‫وفجوات‬ ‫ئة‬‫ر‬‫طا‬‫أمور‬ Decision Required Recommendation and Cost ‫والتكلفة‬ ‫مطلوبة‬ ‫ات‬‫ر‬‫ا‬‫ر‬‫ق‬ ‫ي‬‫ترويج‬ ‫نشاط‬ ‫أي‬ ‫اج‬‫ر‬‫أد‬ ‫يتم‬ ‫لم‬ .4 ‫المبيعات‬ ‫عىل‬‫تؤثر‬ ‫الطاقة‬‫أسعار‬ ‫تفاع‬‫ر‬‫ا‬ .4 ‫الكلية‬ ‫النتائج‬ ‫أحسن‬ ‫أعطت‬ Service level ‫الخدمة‬ ‫مستوى‬ ‫طريقة‬ .2 ‫منافسة‬ ‫منتجات‬ ‫نزول‬ .2 ‫اكد‬‫ر‬‫ال‬ ‫المخزون‬ ‫مع‬ ‫والتعامل‬ ‫المخزون‬ ‫تكلفة‬ ‫تقليل‬ .2 ‫جديدية‬ ‫منتجات‬ ‫إدارج‬ ‫يتم‬ ‫لم‬ .3 ‫أخرى‬ ‫مرة‬‫الدوالر‬‫سعر‬ ‫تفاع‬‫ر‬‫ا‬ .3 Downward ‫التوقع‬ ‫أسلوب‬ ‫استخدام‬ ‫تم‬ .1 ‫السوق‬ ‫ي‬‫ف‬ ‫الفجائية‬ ‫ات‬ ‫ر‬‫التغي‬ .1 ‫التكلفة‬ ‫لتقليل‬ ‫البدائل‬ ‫استخدام‬ ‫ي‬‫ف‬ ‫التوسع‬ .1 Major Assumptions (in Data) ‫ئيسية‬‫ر‬‫ال‬ ‫اضات‬ ‫ر‬‫االفي‬ Risks & Opportunities ‫والفرص‬‫المخاطر‬ Decisosn Made in prevuoius Steps ‫السابقة‬ ‫ات‬‫ر‬‫ا‬‫ر‬‫الق‬ 85% 90% 90% 95% 100% 88% 94% 95% 97% 90% 94% 98% 40% 140% 240% - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Gas Cooker S&OP Chase & Service Level Demand Forecast Production Plan Stokc Level Service Level Margin Sales Revenue Production Cost - 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 S&OP Service Level, Financial Target, Budget & Cash Flwo