This document summarizes the results of a presidential poll conducted in Brazil between September 3-19, 2018. The key findings are: 1) Fernando Haddad of the PT party rose to 16% support, making him the new vice leader behind Jair Bolsonaro at 28%. 2) Haddad's rejection rate increased for the fifth consecutive week to 60%, while Bolsonaro's rejection remained at 57%. 3) In potential second round scenarios, Bolsonaro maintained a small lead of 41% to 38% against Haddad, and tied or led against other candidates.

1. XPPresidentialPoll–Round18
September, 2018

2. 2
Political Analysis
Month & Week Data Colection TSE Register# # Interviews Margin of Error
May Wk3 May-15 to May-18 BR-09600/2018 1,000 3.2
May Wk4 May-21 to May-23 BR-05699/2018 1,000 3.2
May Wk5 (Truck Strike) - - - -
June Wk1 Jun-04 to Jun-06 BR-05997/2018 1,000 3.2
June Wk2 Jun-11 to Jun-13 BR-07273/2018 1,000 3.2
June Wk3 Jun-18 to Jun-20 BR-06647/2018 1,000 3.2
June Wk4 Jun-25 to Jun-27 BR-03362/2018 1,000 3.2
July Wk1 Jul-02 to Jul-04 BR-04338/2018 1,000 3.2
July Wk2 Jul-09 to Jul-11 BR-09898/2018 1,000 3.2
July Wk3 Jul-16 to Jul-18 BR-02843/2018 1,000 3.2
July Wk4 Jul-23 to Jul-25 BR-07756/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk1 Jul-30 to Aug-01 BR-06820/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk2 Aug-06 to Aug-08 BR-08988/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk3 Aug-13 to Aug-15 BR-02075/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk4 Aug-20 to Aug-22 BR-07829/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk5 Aug-27 to Aug-29 BR-07252/2018 1,000 3.2
September Wk1 Sep-03 to Sep-05 BR-00339/2018 2,000 2.2
September Wk2 Sep-10 to Sep-12 BR-07277/2018 2,000 2.2
September Wk3 Sep-17 to Sep-19 BR-02995/2018 2,000 2.2
XP Presidential Polls
Conducted by: Instituto de pesquisas sociais, políticas e econômicas (Ipespe)
Coverage: National
Method: Phone call interviews
XP Presidential Poll - Details
All files from previous polls and scenarios breakdowns are available here.

3. 3
Political Analysis
GENDER REGION
MALE 48% NORTH 8%
FEMALE 52% NORTHEAST 27%
AGE SOUTHEAST 43%
16 & 17 YO 1% SOUTH 15%
18 TO 34 YO 34% MIDWEST 7%
35 TO 54 YO 39% TYPE OF CITY
+55 YO 26% CAPITAL TOWNS 24%
OCUPATION OUTLYING TOWNS 10%
WORKING 59% COUNTRY TOWNS 66%
NOT WORKING 41% CITY SIZE
INCOME (MW = USD260) < 50.000 HAB 34%
E CLASS (< 1 MW) 21% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 23%
D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) 28% 200.001 TO 500.000 HAB 14%
C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) 35% > 500.000 HAB 29%
B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) 15% RELIGION
A CLASS (> 20 MW) 1% CATHOLIC 61%
DIDN'T ANSWER 0% EVANGELICAL 24%
EDUCATION LEVEL DONT KNOW 8%
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 7% SPIRITTUALISM 3%
MIDDLE SCHOOL 31% ADVENTITST 1%
HIGH SCHOOL 42% OTHER 4%
HIGHER EDUCATION 20% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN 0%
VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL)
Voter profile: current week distribution
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

4. 4
Political AnalysisHighlights
The 18th round of XP Presidential Poll shows that Fernando Haddad (PT) rose 6 points since last week,
from 10% to 16%, and is now the vice-leader, five points ahead of Ciro Gomes (PDT). Jair Bolsonaro has
increased his performance since the beginning of September and now leads with 28% of voters intension,
two points above last week.
Haddad’s rejection increased for the fifth consecutive week, reaching 60%, while Bolsonaro’s rejection
remains unchanged at 57%. The front-runners are said to be the worst possible presidents for Brazil –
32% say Haddad would be the worst one and 30% say Bolsonaro.
In second round scenarios, Bolsonaro increased marginally his advantage over Haddad from 40% x 38%
to 41% x 38%. Bolsonaro improved his performance against Geraldo Alckmin (they are tied, 39% to 39%)
and against Marina Silva (he leads, 40% x 35%). He still loses to Ciro Gomes, 40% to 35%.
For the first time, there’s no meaningful difference in results when the voters are informed that Haddad is
“supported by Lula” – the PT candidate receives only one extra p.p.
Strategic vote: Voters were asked for the first time if they would change their vote in first round in order to
avoid a second round with a candidate they dislike: 37% said “yes” and 57% said “no”. The voters more
likely to change the decision are those who support Alvaro Dias, Marina Silva and Ciro Gomes – more
than a half said they would change.
Among the voters of the four right-wing candidates (Geraldo Alckmin, Alvaro Dias, Henrique Meirelles,
and João Amoedo), 47% said they would cast a strategic vote to avoid a candidate they dislike in the
second round.

5. 5
Political Analysis
1.Electoral Scenarios
2.Assessing the electorate & Microdata
Analysis
XP Poll

6. 6
Political AnalysisVoting Intention - Spontaneous
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
September
Week 3

7. 7
Political AnalysisScenario 1
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
September
Week 3

8. 8
Political AnalysisScenario 2 – Haddad with Lula’s support
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
September
Week 3

9. 9
Political AnalysisSecond option
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

10. 10
Political Analysis
FERNANDO HADDAD,
SUPPORTED BY LULA
JAIR
BOLSONARO
GERALDO
ALCKMIN
MARINA
SILVA
CIRO
GOMES
ÁLVARO
DIAS
UNDECIDED
ÁLVARO DIAS 2% 7% 5% 1% 2% 0% 0%
CIRO GOMES 35% 6% 19% 19% 0% 2% 0%
FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA 0% 2% 6% 16% 32% 8% 0%
GERALDO ALCKMIN 8% 10% 0% 16% 10% 18% 0%
GUILHERME BOULOS 2% 0% 0% 2% 2% 0% 0%
HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 2% 3% 10% 11% 3% 10% 0%
JAIR BOLSONARO 4% 0% 16% 9% 9% 16% 0%
MARINA SILVA 13% 3% 14% 0% 12% 4% 0%
JOÃO AMOÊDO 1% 7% 2% 1% 3% 0% 0%
VERA LÚCIA 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0%
CABO DACIOLO 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
JOÃO GOULART FILHO 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0%
JOSÉ MARIA EYMAEL 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0%
DIDN'T ANSWER 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
DON'T KNOW 5% 9% 19% 7% 0% 0% 0%
NONE/BLANK/NULL 27% 48% 6% 15% 24% 38% 0%
HADN'T CHOSEN ANYONE IN SCENARIO 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
IF THE CANDIDATE YOU CHOSE ON THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO DOESN'T MAKE TO THE TICKET, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?
Choice in scenario 2
2nd Option
Second option
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

11. 11
Political AnalysisVote Migration
MICRODATA SPECIAL
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

12. 12
Political Analysis2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

13. 13
Political Analysis2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

14. 14
Political Analysis2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

15. 15
Political AnalysisVoter conviction
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
*The question regarding Amoêdo wasn’t asked between Jun Wk4 and Sep Wk 1.

16. 16
Political AnalysisRejection
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
*The question regarding Amoêdo wasn’t asked between Jun Wk4 and Sep Wk 1.

17. 17
Political AnalysisUnfamiliarity
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
*The question regarding Amoêdo wasn’t asked between Jun Wk4 and Sep Wk 1.

18. 18
Political Analysis
Would
Surely Vote
Could Vote
Wouldn't
Vote
Dont't Know
Enough
Don'tKnow/
Didn'tAnswer
Total
BOLSONARO 25% 13% 57% 4% 1% 100%
HADDAD 16% 12% 60% 10% 1% 100%
CIRO 13% 25% 54% 7% 1% 100%
ALCKMIN 8% 22% 60% 7% 1% 100%
MARINA 5% 19% 67% 6% 1% 100%
AMÔEDO 5% 14% 44% 36% 1% 100%
A. DIAS 5% 17% 51% 26% 1% 100%
I'D LIKE YOU TO SAY IF YOU'D SURELY VOTE FOR HIM, COULD VOTE FOR HIM, WOULDN'T
VOTE IN ANY SCENARIOS OR IF YOU DON'T KNOW HIM ENOUGH TO SAY.
Conviction, recognition and rejection.
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
September
Week 3

19. 19
Political AnalysisExpectation of Victory
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
September
Week 3

20. 20
Political Analysis
1.Electoral Scenarios
2.Assessing the electorate & Microdata
Analysis
XP Poll

21. 21
Political AnalysisInterest in the election
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

22. 22
Political AnalysisVeto
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

23. 23
Political AnalysisStrategic vote
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

24. 24
Political AnalysisHow the angry vote?
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
This week, 28% of voters reject both Haddad and Bolsonaro. This is how they vote.
MICRODATA
SPECIAL

25. 25
Political AnalysisVote migration (to Haddad)
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Distribution of votes in the 2nd round scenario between Haddad & Bolsonaro
MICRODATA
SPECIAL

26. 26
Political AnalysisVote migration (to Bolsonaro)
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Distribution of votes in the 2nd round scenario between Haddad & Bolsonaro
MICRODATA
SPECIAL

27. 27
Political AnalysisVote migration (to none, blank, null, DA & DK )
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Distribution of votes in the 2nd round scenario between Haddad & Bolsonaro
MICRODATA
SPECIAL

28. 28
Political AnalysisDisclaimer
This material was prepared by XP Investimentos (“XPI”).
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confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only.
In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 443/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results
presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in
violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979.
Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don’t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in
this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the “Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais,
políticas e econômicas (IPESPE)” which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation.

29. © GrupoXP
September 2018