The document summarizes the results of a presidential poll conducted in Brazil in September 2018. It shows voting intention figures for different candidates in various electoral scenarios. The poll found support for Jair Bolsonaro increased after an incident, while support for jailed former president Lula decreased. It also analyzes rejection rates, conviction levels, expectations of victory and how undecided voters lean. Microdata on vote migration and demographic breakdowns are presented.

1. XPPresidentialPoll–Round17
September, 2018

2. 2
Political Analysis
Month & Week Data Colection TSE Register# # Interviews Margin of Error
May Wk3 May-15 to May-18 BR-09600/2018 1,000 3.2
May Wk4 May-21 to May-23 BR-05699/2018 1,000 3.2
May Wk5 (Truck Strike) - - - -
June Wk1 Jun-04 to Jun-06 BR-05997/2018 1,000 3.2
June Wk2 Jun-11 to Jun-13 BR-07273/2018 1,000 3.2
June Wk3 Jun-18 to Jun-20 BR-06647/2018 1,000 3.2
June Wk4 Jun-25 to Jun-27 BR-03362/2018 1,000 3.2
July Wk1 Jul-02 to Jul-04 BR-04338/2018 1,000 3.2
July Wk2 Jul-09 to Jul-11 BR-09898/2018 1,000 3.2
July Wk3 Jul-16 to Jul-18 BR-02843/2018 1,000 3.2
July Wk4 Jul-23 to Jul-25 BR-07756/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk1 Jul-30 to Aug-01 BR-06820/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk2 Aug-06 to Aug-08 BR-08988/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk3 Aug-13 to Aug-15 BR-02075/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk4 Aug-20 to Aug-22 BR-07829/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk5 Aug-27 to Aug-29 BR-07252/2018 1,000 3.2
September Wk1 Sep-03 to Sep-05 BR-00339/2018 2,000 2.2
September Wk2 Sep-10 to Sep-12 BR-07277/2018 2,000 2.2
Conducted by: Instituto de pesquisas sociais, políticas e econômicas (Ipespe)
Coverage: National
Method: Phone call interviews
XP Presidential Poll - Details
All files from previous polls and scenarios breakdowns are available here.

3. 3
Political Analysis
GENDER REGION
MALE 48% NORTH 8%
FEMALE 52% NORTHEAST 27%
AGE SOUTHEAST 43%
16 & 17 YO 2% SOUTH 15%
18 TO 34 YO 33% MIDWEST 7%
35 TO 54 YO 39% TYPE OF CITY
+55 YO 26% CAPITAL TOWNS 22%
OCUPATION OUTLYING TOWNS 15%
WORKING 56% COUNTRY TOWNS 63%
NOT WORKING 44% CITY SIZE
INCOME (MW = USD260) < 50.000 HAB 37%
E CLASS (< 1 MW) 21% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 24%
D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) 28% 200.001 TO 500.000 HAB 13%
C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) 37% > 500.000 HAB 26%
B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) 13% RELIGION
A CLASS (> 20 MW) 2% CATHOLIC 61%
DIDN'T ANSWER 0% EVANGELICAL 20%
EDUCATION LEVEL DONT KNOW 8%
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 7% SPIRITTUALISM 5%
MIDDLE SCHOOL 32% ADVENTITST 0%
HIGH SCHOOL 41% OTHER 5%
HIGHER EDUCATION 21% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN 1%
VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL)
Voter profile: current week distribution
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

4. 4
Political AnalysisHighlights
The 17th round of the XP Poll showed that 59% of voters are now interested in the election
and an astonishing 99% became aware of the incident with Jair Bolsonaro. Also, 24% said
that it increases their will to vote for him. This week, 40% said they believe that Bolsonaro
will be victorious.
The spontaneous voting intention for Bolsonaro rose from 16% to 20%, while in the
scenarios in which a list of candidates was presented, he rose from 23% to 26% and from
20% to 23%. His rejection rate, which increased for 7 consecutive weeks, declined to 57%.
In second round simulations, he lost for Alckmin and Marina by 4 p.p. and now the difference
shrank to 1 p.p. in both cases, a tie. While he still beats Haddad (40% x 38%), the distance
now narrowed to 2 p.p., also a tie.
The voters seems to have become aware that Lula won’t be able to run. His spontaneous
vote intention dropped from 18% to 9%, while Haddad’s rose to 5%. The official PT
candidate retains 25% of Lula’s spontaneous voters in the scenario with a list, a number that
increase to 48% when he’s identified as supported by Lula. Haddad also rose in all first and
second round scenarios.
Ciro advanced 1p.p. in all first round scenarios, while Alckmin remained stable or rose by
1p.p. and Marina dropped 2% or 3%.

5. 5
Political Analysis
1. Electoral Scenarios
2. Assessing the electorate &
Microdata Analysis
XP Poll

6. 6
Political AnalysisVoting Intention - Spontaneous
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
September
Week 2

7. 7
Political AnalysisScenario 1
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
September
Week 2

8. 8
Political AnalysisScenario 2 – Haddad with Lula’s support
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
September
Week 2

9. 9
Political AnalysisSecond option
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

10. 10
Political Analysis
FERNANDO HADDAD,
SUPPORTED BY LULA
JAIR
BOLSONARO
GERALDO
ALCKMIN
MARINA
SILVA
CIRO
GOMES
ÁLVARO
DIAS
UNDECIDED
ÁLVARO DIAS 2% 10% 8% 4% 3% 0% 0%
CIRO GOMES 28% 7% 13% 21% 0% 13% 0%
FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA 0% 1% 4% 13% 33% 1% 0%
GERALDO ALCKMIN 6% 19% 0% 9% 7% 17% 0%
GUILHERME BOULOS 2% 1% 1% 2% 4% 0% 0%
HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 2% 3% 8% 6% 4% 9% 0%
JAIR BOLSONARO 0% 0% 15% 10% 8% 25% 0%
MARINA SILVA 14% 2% 29% 0% 9% 6% 0%
JOÃO AMOÊDO 0% 11% 0% 7% 2% 2% 0%
VERA LÚCIA 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0%
CABO DACIOLO 0% 6% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%
JOÃO GOULART FILHO 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
JOSÉ MARIA EYMAEL 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0%
DIDN'T ANSWER 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
DON'T KNOW 5% 3% 9% 6% 11% 6% 0%
NONE/BLANK/NULL 40% 36% 11% 22% 17% 20% 0%
HADN'T CHOSEN ANYONE IN SCENARIO 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
IF THE CANDIDATE YOU CHOSE ON THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO DOESN'T MAKE TO THE TICKET, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?
Choice in scenario 2
2nd Option
Second option
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

11. 11
Political AnalysisVote Migration
MICRODATA SPECIAL
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

12. 12
Political Analysis2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

13. 13
Political Analysis2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

14. 14
Political Analysis2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

15. 15
Political AnalysisVoter conviction
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

16. 16
Political AnalysisRejection
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

17. 17
Political AnalysisUnfamiliarity
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

18. 18
Political Analysis
Would
Surely Vote
Could Vote
Wouldn't
Vote
Dont't Know
Enough
Don'tKnow/
Didn'tAnswer
Total
BOLSONARO 23% 12% 57% 5% 2% 100%
CIRO 13% 22% 56% 8% 1% 100%
HADDAD 13% 12% 57% 16% 1% 100%
ALCKMIN 9% 22% 60% 7% 2% 100%
MARINA 7% 21% 64% 5% 2% 100%
A. DIAS 6% 15% 49% 28% 1% 100%
AMOÊDO 4% 13% 42% 37% 3% 100%
I'D LIKE YOU TO SAY IF YOU'D SURELY VOTE FOR HIM, COULD VOTE FOR HIM, WOULDN'T
VOTE IN ANY SCENARIOS OR IF YOU DON'T KNOW HIM ENOUGH TO SAY.
Conviction, recognition and rejection.
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
September
Week 2

19. 19
Political AnalysisExpectation of Victory
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
September
Week 2

20. 20
Political Analysis
1. Electoral Scenarios
2. Assessing the electorate &
Microdata Analysis
XP Poll

21. 21
Political AnalysisInterest in the election
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

22. 22
Political Analysis
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
The attack on Bolsonaro

23. 23
Political Analysis
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
The attack on Bolsonaro

24. 24
Political AnalysisHow the angry vote?
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
This week, 26% of voters reject both Haddad and Bolsonaro. This is how they vote.

25. 25
Political Analysis
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Were voters impacted by the campaigns?

26. 26
Political AnalysisDisclaimer
This material was prepared by XP Investimentos (“XPI”).
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All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of transmission and these, plus any
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This report is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a
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confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only.
In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 443/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results
presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in
violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979.
Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don’t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in
this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the “Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais,
políticas e econômicas (IPESPE)” which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation.

27. © GrupoXP
September 2018