The document summarizes the results of a poll conducted in São Paulo state, Brazil regarding presidential candidates for the 2018 election. It finds that Geraldo Alckmin and Jair Bolsonaro were leading in scenarios where former president Lula was not a candidate for the Workers' Party. With Lula present, the three candidates shared the lead, with Bolsonaro and Lula each receiving 20% and Alckmin 19%. The poll also analyzed voter preferences in potential second round matchups and migration of voter support between candidates. It provides breakdowns of first round preferences by demographic groups.
Presentation by Cornelius Hirsch at the 2019 CMPF Summer School for Journalists and Media Practitioners - Covering Political Campaigns in the Age of Data, Algorithms & Artificial Intelligence
GPG takes a look at publicly-released polls on a wide range of key economic issues on everything from how the public views the current state of the economy to views on trade.
Only 14% of Britons think that the new funding announced for the NHS by the government will lead to actual improvements, according to the latest Ipsos MORI Political Monitor. As the NHS celebrates its 70th year half the public (49%) believe the new funding will only be enough to maintain the current level of NHS services, but not to lead to improvements – a third 33% think the amount is not enough and the NHS will get worse. While there is some variation across party lines supporters of all parties are pessimistic the funding will lead to improvements - a quarter (23%) of Conservative voters believe the amount is enough to lead to improvements compared with 8% of Labour voters. More than half (55%) of Conservative voters and 47% of Labour voters think the amount is enough to maintain current levels, while one in five (21%) Conservatives and two in five (40%) Labour voters think it will still get worse).
Ipsos MORI December Political Monitor 2018Ipsos UK
As Parliament gets ready to vote on the Withdrawal Agreement next week Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor reveals most of the public believe withdrawing from the EU on its terms will be bad for Britain. The poll shows six in ten (62%) think withdrawing under this deal will be bad for the UK as a whole (25% say good), including 47% of Conservatives (40% of whom think it would be good). This is worse than the reaction to the Prime Minister’s Chequers deal in July when 47% thought it would be bad for the country.
As the UK nears a vote on whether to remain in or leave the EU, GPG takes a look at publicly-released polls out of the UK along with American and European views on the EU and various issues.
The July 2019 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor shows some good news for the Conservatives as new Prime Minister Boris Johnson takes office. Mr Johnson’s personal poll ratings have improved, especially among his own supporters, and he leads Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn on several leadership metrics. However, Mr Johnson’s satisfaction ratings are worse than other Prime Ministers taking office mid-parliament and the public remain divided over potential Brexit outcomes. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have a ten-point lead over Labour among ‘likely voters’, which is partly due to an increased enthusiasm among Conservatives saying they are certain to vote.
Presentation by Cornelius Hirsch at the 2019 CMPF Summer School for Journalists and Media Practitioners - Covering Political Campaigns in the Age of Data, Algorithms & Artificial Intelligence
GPG takes a look at publicly-released polls on a wide range of key economic issues on everything from how the public views the current state of the economy to views on trade.
Only 14% of Britons think that the new funding announced for the NHS by the government will lead to actual improvements, according to the latest Ipsos MORI Political Monitor. As the NHS celebrates its 70th year half the public (49%) believe the new funding will only be enough to maintain the current level of NHS services, but not to lead to improvements – a third 33% think the amount is not enough and the NHS will get worse. While there is some variation across party lines supporters of all parties are pessimistic the funding will lead to improvements - a quarter (23%) of Conservative voters believe the amount is enough to lead to improvements compared with 8% of Labour voters. More than half (55%) of Conservative voters and 47% of Labour voters think the amount is enough to maintain current levels, while one in five (21%) Conservatives and two in five (40%) Labour voters think it will still get worse).
Ipsos MORI December Political Monitor 2018Ipsos UK
As Parliament gets ready to vote on the Withdrawal Agreement next week Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor reveals most of the public believe withdrawing from the EU on its terms will be bad for Britain. The poll shows six in ten (62%) think withdrawing under this deal will be bad for the UK as a whole (25% say good), including 47% of Conservatives (40% of whom think it would be good). This is worse than the reaction to the Prime Minister’s Chequers deal in July when 47% thought it would be bad for the country.
As the UK nears a vote on whether to remain in or leave the EU, GPG takes a look at publicly-released polls out of the UK along with American and European views on the EU and various issues.
The July 2019 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor shows some good news for the Conservatives as new Prime Minister Boris Johnson takes office. Mr Johnson’s personal poll ratings have improved, especially among his own supporters, and he leads Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn on several leadership metrics. However, Mr Johnson’s satisfaction ratings are worse than other Prime Ministers taking office mid-parliament and the public remain divided over potential Brexit outcomes. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have a ten-point lead over Labour among ‘likely voters’, which is partly due to an increased enthusiasm among Conservatives saying they are certain to vote.
President Trump’s approval rating remains statistically unchanged from last week, with 42% of all Americans approving of the job he is doing as president.
Let’s not cite the drop, just state what it is…
This week, 42% of all Americans approve of President Trump’s job performance. Registered voters are in line with the rest of the general public, with 44% approving of the job Trump is doing as president. Party lines continue to show division with one third of Independents (33%), 85% of Republicans, and just 14% of Democrats approving of Trump’s job performance.
Republicans and Democrats are neck and neck in this week’s generic ballot question – 33% of Americans would vote for a Democrat and 33% would vote for a Republican if the election were held today. Among registered voters, Democrats (39%) have a slight edge on Republicans (37%). Independents are evenly split between Republicans (15%), Democrats (17%) and a third party (18%).
Healthcare (16%) continues to be perceived as the most important problem facing America today. The economy (13%) is a close second to healthcare. Terrorism (11%) and morality (11%) are tied, and round out of the top issues.
Attorney General, Jeff Sessions, continues to lead the Wh’Exit Poll, with 17% of Americans reporting they believe he will be the next to resign or be fired from the White House. EPA Administrator, Scott Pruitt, is no longer perceived to be in the hot seat, with 10% of Americans reporting he will be next on the chopping block. Betsy Devos, Secretary of Education (10%) is tied for second place with Scott Pruitt.
O ministro do STF, Ricardo Lewandowski, liberou mais 50 páginas de transcrições de mensagens captadas pela Vaza Jato, que são conversas entre juiz e procuradores que trabalhavam na Lava Jato.
Nota Técnica do Dieese sobre o substitutivo da reforma da previdênciaMiguel Rosario
2PEC 6/2019: o substitutivo do relator da Comissão Especial O deputado Samuel Moreira, relator do Proposta de Emenda Constitucional nº 6/2019, da reforma da Previdência e Assistência, na Comissão Especial da Câmara dos Deputados, apresentou relatório em 13 de junho de 2019. Junto ao relatório, propôs um texto substitutivo que, embora conserve pontos importantes, altera substancialmente partes da proposta original encaminhada pelo poder Executivo - a partir daqui denominada PEC original. Esta Nota sintetiza e comenta algumas questões centrais do substitutivo comparando-as tanto com o texto inicial e com as atuais regras previdenciárias.
8 dias - despacho do juiz federal Luiz Antônio BonatMiguel Rosario
O juiz federal Luiz Antônio Bonat, da 13ª Vara Federal, abriu prazo de 8 dias para que as defesas se manifestem na ação penal em que o ex-presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva foi condenado a 12 anos e 11 meses de prisão por supostas reformas no sítio de Atibaia. Após a manifestação das defesas sobre o recurso da força-tarefa, o magistrado vai enviar o caso ao Tribunal Regional Federal da 4ª Região.
Pesquisa Oxfam / Datafolha sobre desigualdadeMiguel Rosario
A Oxfam, uma das mais importantes ongs do mundo, realizou, com o Datafolha, uma pesquisa sobre o que os brasileiros pensam sobre a desigualdade de renda.
Eduardo Moreira: 44 razões contra a reforma da previdência de BolsonaroMiguel Rosario
O professor Eduardo Moreira preparou um documento para explicar porque os brasileiros devem se mobilizar contra a reforma da previdência de Jair Bolsonaro.
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras Agrees to Pay More Than $850 Million for FCPA Violations
Reaches Agreement with Brazilian Authorities in Related Investigation
Levelwise PageRank with Loop-Based Dead End Handling Strategy : SHORT REPORT ...Subhajit Sahu
Abstract — Levelwise PageRank is an alternative method of PageRank computation which decomposes the input graph into a directed acyclic block-graph of strongly connected components, and processes them in topological order, one level at a time. This enables calculation for ranks in a distributed fashion without per-iteration communication, unlike the standard method where all vertices are processed in each iteration. It however comes with a precondition of the absence of dead ends in the input graph. Here, the native non-distributed performance of Levelwise PageRank was compared against Monolithic PageRank on a CPU as well as a GPU. To ensure a fair comparison, Monolithic PageRank was also performed on a graph where vertices were split by components. Results indicate that Levelwise PageRank is about as fast as Monolithic PageRank on the CPU, but quite a bit slower on the GPU. Slowdown on the GPU is likely caused by a large submission of small workloads, and expected to be non-issue when the computation is performed on massive graphs.
Adjusting primitives for graph : SHORT REPORT / NOTESSubhajit Sahu
Graph algorithms, like PageRank Compressed Sparse Row (CSR) is an adjacency-list based graph representation that is
Multiply with different modes (map)
1. Performance of sequential execution based vs OpenMP based vector multiply.
2. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector multiply.
Sum with different storage types (reduce)
1. Performance of vector element sum using float vs bfloat16 as the storage type.
Sum with different modes (reduce)
1. Performance of sequential execution based vs OpenMP based vector element sum.
2. Performance of memcpy vs in-place based CUDA based vector element sum.
3. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (memcpy).
4. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (in-place).
Sum with in-place strategies of CUDA mode (reduce)
1. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (in-place).
Data Centers - Striving Within A Narrow Range - Research Report - MCG - May 2...pchutichetpong
M Capital Group (“MCG”) expects to see demand and the changing evolution of supply, facilitated through institutional investment rotation out of offices and into work from home (“WFH”), while the ever-expanding need for data storage as global internet usage expands, with experts predicting 5.3 billion users by 2023. These market factors will be underpinned by technological changes, such as progressing cloud services and edge sites, allowing the industry to see strong expected annual growth of 13% over the next 4 years.
Whilst competitive headwinds remain, represented through the recent second bankruptcy filing of Sungard, which blames “COVID-19 and other macroeconomic trends including delayed customer spending decisions, insourcing and reductions in IT spending, energy inflation and reduction in demand for certain services”, the industry has seen key adjustments, where MCG believes that engineering cost management and technological innovation will be paramount to success.
MCG reports that the more favorable market conditions expected over the next few years, helped by the winding down of pandemic restrictions and a hybrid working environment will be driving market momentum forward. The continuous injection of capital by alternative investment firms, as well as the growing infrastructural investment from cloud service providers and social media companies, whose revenues are expected to grow over 3.6x larger by value in 2026, will likely help propel center provision and innovation. These factors paint a promising picture for the industry players that offset rising input costs and adapt to new technologies.
According to M Capital Group: “Specifically, the long-term cost-saving opportunities available from the rise of remote managing will likely aid value growth for the industry. Through margin optimization and further availability of capital for reinvestment, strong players will maintain their competitive foothold, while weaker players exit the market to balance supply and demand.”
The Building Blocks of QuestDB, a Time Series Databasejavier ramirez
Talk Delivered at Valencia Codes Meetup 2024-06.
Traditionally, databases have treated timestamps just as another data type. However, when performing real-time analytics, timestamps should be first class citizens and we need rich time semantics to get the most out of our data. We also need to deal with ever growing datasets while keeping performant, which is as fun as it sounds.
It is no wonder time-series databases are now more popular than ever before. Join me in this session to learn about the internal architecture and building blocks of QuestDB, an open source time-series database designed for speed. We will also review a history of some of the changes we have gone over the past two years to deal with late and unordered data, non-blocking writes, read-replicas, or faster batch ingestion.
Adjusting OpenMP PageRank : SHORT REPORT / NOTESSubhajit Sahu
For massive graphs that fit in RAM, but not in GPU memory, it is possible to take
advantage of a shared memory system with multiple CPUs, each with multiple cores, to
accelerate pagerank computation. If the NUMA architecture of the system is properly taken
into account with good vertex partitioning, the speedup can be significant. To take steps in
this direction, experiments are conducted to implement pagerank in OpenMP using two
different approaches, uniform and hybrid. The uniform approach runs all primitives required
for pagerank in OpenMP mode (with multiple threads). On the other hand, the hybrid
approach runs certain primitives in sequential mode (i.e., sumAt, multiply).
Quantitative Data AnalysisReliability Analysis (Cronbach Alpha) Common Method...2023240532
Quantitative data Analysis
Overview
Reliability Analysis (Cronbach Alpha)
Common Method Bias (Harman Single Factor Test)
Frequency Analysis (Demographic)
Descriptive Analysis
06-04-2024 - NYC Tech Week - Discussion on Vector Databases, Unstructured Data and AI
Discussion on Vector Databases, Unstructured Data and AI
https://www.meetup.com/unstructured-data-meetup-new-york/
This meetup is for people working in unstructured data. Speakers will come present about related topics such as vector databases, LLMs, and managing data at scale. The intended audience of this group includes roles like machine learning engineers, data scientists, data engineers, software engineers, and PMs.This meetup was formerly Milvus Meetup, and is sponsored by Zilliz maintainers of Milvus.
2. 2
Political Analysis
Month & Week Data Colection TSE Register#
July Wk4 Jul-26 to Jul-28 SP-07091/2018
July Wk4 Jul-26 to Jul-28 BR-01505/2018
XP SÃO PAULO STATE POLLS
XP Poll - Details
Conducted by:
Instituto de pesquisas sociais,
políticas e econômicas (Ipespe)
Sample:
1000 interviews/each week
Coverage:
State of São Paulo
Method:
Phone call interviews
Margin of Error:
1000 interviews: 3.2. p.p. All files from previous polls and scenarios
breakdowns are available here.
3. 3
Political Analysis
GENDER TYPE OF CITY
MALE 47% CAPITAL TOWNS 28%
FEMALE 53% OUTLYING TOWNS 20%
AGE COUNTRY TOWNS 53%
16 & 17 YO 2% CITY SIZE
18 TO 34 YO 32% < 50.000 HAB 17%
35 TO 54 YO 36% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 30%
+55 YO 31% 200.001 TO 500.000 HAB 21%
INCOME (MW = USD260) > 500.000 HAB 33%
E CLASS (< 1 MW) 14% RELIGION
D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) 23% CATHOLIC 55%
C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) 45% EVANGELICAL 24%
B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) 15% HAS NO RELIGION 9%
A CLASS (> 20 MW) 3% SPIRITTUALISM 5%
AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN 1%
EDUCATION LEVEL DIDN'T ANSWER 1%
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 9% OTHER 5%
MIDDLE SCHOOL 19% OCUPATION
HIGH SCHOOL 43% WORKING 55%
HIGHER EDUCATION 29% NOT WORKING 45%
VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL)
Voter profile: current week distribution
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
4. 4
Political AnalysisHighlights
The 1st XP Poll conducted in the State of São Paulo for the Presidential run showed that
Geraldo Alckmin and Jair Bolsonaro shared the lead in scenarios in which Lula wasn’t a PT
candidate. With Lula present, the three candidates share the lead. Bolsonaro and Lula scored
20% and Alckmin while obtained 19%.
In the scenario with Haddad as the PT candidate, Bolsonaro has 21% and Alckmin has 20%
and, while Marina has 10%, Ciro 8% and Haddad 5%. When the voter’s informed of Lula’s
support, Haddad jumps from 5% to 10%.
In the second-round scenarios, Alckmin beats Haddad with 50% against 19% and Bolsonaro
with 43% versus 28%. In a scenario without the PSDB candidate, Bolsonaro beats Haddad
with 36% against 27%.
By observing the microdata, Alckmin is able to convert 43% of those who evaluated his
government as great/good. He also acquired 61% of Bolsonaro’s votes in the runoff against
Haddad and 58% of Haddad’s votes in the runoff against Bolsonaro.
The poll also shows that 31% of those that choose Dória for the State also choose Alckmin for
the Presidency. The ‘BolsoDória’ vote was only 21% of those who indicated a vote for Dória.
6. 6
Political Analysis1st Round – Haddad as PT Candidate
July
Week 4
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
7. 7
Political Analysis1st Round – Lula as PT Candidate
July
Week 4
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
8. 8
Political Analysis1st Round – Haddad as PT Candidate
July
Week 4
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
9. 9
Political Analysis2nd Round – Scenario 1
July
Week 4
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
10. 10
Political Analysis2nd Round – Scenario 2
July
Week 4
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
11. 11
Political Analysis2nd Round – Scenario 3
July
Week 4
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
15. 15
Political Analysis
Would Surely
Vote
Could
Vote
Wouldn't
Vote
Dont't Know
Enough
Don'tKnow/
Didn'tAnswer
Total
LULA 20% 10% 69% 1% 1% 100%
ALCKMIN 20% 29% 50% 1% 0% 100%
BOLSONARO 20% 13% 54% 12% 1% 100%
MARINA 9% 24% 61% 5% 1% 100%
CIRO 7% 17% 63% 12% 0% 100%
HADDAD 7% 16% 64% 13% 2% 100%
A. DIAS 4% 12% 47% 37% 0% 100%
I'D LIKE YOU TO SAY IF YOU'D SURELY VOTE FOR HIM, COULD VOTE FOR HIM,
WOULDN'T VOTE IN ANY SCENARIOS OR IF YOU DON'T KNOW HIM ENOUGH TO SAY.
Conviction, recognition and rejection.
July
Week 4
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
17. 17
Political AnalysisAlckmin: Approval Rate x Vote Intention
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
GREAT/GOOD REGULAR BAD/ VERY BAD DK/DA
GERALDO ALCKMIN 43% 12% 1% 2%
JAIR BOLSONARO 17% 24% 18% 20%
MARINA SILVA 10% 12% 8% 14%
NONE/BLANK/NULL 8% 19% 39% 39%
CIRO GOMES 6% 8% 10% 7%
ÁLVARO DIAS 5% 3% 2% 2%
FERNANDO HADDAD, 5% 12% 15% 7%
DON'T KNOW 4% 6% 1% 2%
HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 1% 2% 0% 2%
GUILHERME BOULOS 1% 0% 0% 0%
MANUELA D'ÁVILA 0% 2% 5% 5%
DIDN'T ANSWER 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total > 100% 100% 100% 100%
% of Votes in Alckmin's Approval rating - Scenario of Haddad Supp.
18. 18
Political Analysis
JAIR BOLSONARO (20%)
GERALDO ALCKMIN 61%
FERNANDO HADDAD 9%
NONE/BLANK/NULL 29%
DON'T KNOW/DIDN'T ANSWER 2%
GERALDO ALCKMIN (20%)
FERNANDO HADDAD 32%
JAIR BOLSONARO 27%
NONE/BLANK/NULL 37%
DON'T KNOW/DIDN'T ANSWER 5%
FERNANDO HADDAD (10%)
GERALDO ALCKMIN 58%
JAIR BOLSONARO 7%
NONE/BLANK/NULL 35%
DON'T KNOW/DIDN'T ANSWER 0%
Vote Migration From 1st Round to 2nd round
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Geraldo Alckmin grabs 61% of
Bolsonaro’s 1st round voters when he
runs against Haddad. The PSDB
candidate also grabs 58% of Haddad’s
voters when running against Bolsonaro
If Geraldo Alckmin doesn’t make to the
second round, his voter would split. 37%
said they’d vote note/blank/null, 32%
would vote for Haddad and 27% for
Bolsonaro.
Who ‘orphans’ voters choose in the 2nd round?
19. 19
Political Analysis
In % of Total in pp
GERALDO ALCKMIN 31% 7%
JAIR BOLSONARO 23% 5%
NONE/BLANK/NULL 12% 3%
MARINA SILVA 9% 2%
CIRO GOMES 8% 2%
ÁLVARO DIAS 6% 1%
FERNANDO HADDAD, 4% 1%
HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 3% 1%
DON'T KNOW 3% 1%
MANUELA D'ÁVILA 1% 0%
DIDN'T ANSWER 0% 0%
GUILHERME BOULOS 0% 0%
Total 100% 22%
Doria's votes x Presidential 1st Round
BolsoDória vote?
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
João Dória (PSDB) has 22% of voting
intention in the dispute for governor.
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) is the candidate
that holds most of Doria’s voters in the
presidential run, 31% or 7 p.p.
Jair Bolsonaro is the second, with 23% of
the former mayor’s votes, or 5 p.p.
21. 21
Political AnalysisDisclaimer
This material was prepared by XP Investimentos (“XPI”).
XPI and its affiliates, parent, shareholders, directors, officers, employees, and licensors will not be liable (individually, jointly, or
severally) to you or any other person as a result of your access, reception, or use of the information contained in this
communication.
All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of transmission and these, plus any
other information contained herein, are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that
any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances
or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation.
This report is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a
solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. This material (including any attachments) is
confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only.
In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 443/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results
presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in
violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979.
Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don’t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in
this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the “Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais,
políticas e econômicas (IPESPE)” which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation.