Policy Making and Modelling in a Complex World:
The work of policymakers will continue to remain unreliable unless they become conversant with uncertainties and complexities that define the way different social, political, and economic variables interrelate. Complexity refers to interrelated elements and factors, but depicts significant variations in the way they function or express themselves. As a result, their connections are unpredictable. These components can interact to cause expected outcomes. However, they can also generate deviant and unexpected outcomes. The human economy is an example of a complex system because the multiple elements that interact within the social, political, and economic environments make the outcomes indeterminate.
Regime shifts may begin with simple adaptable changes only to transition to complex associations with unwanted and devastating effects. Therefore, policy developers should determine when exactly the formulated regulations are likely to shift from the intended purpose towards unexpected consequence if they desire to improve their efficiencies. This understanding will ensure effective policy development because it will highlight when and where restructuring is necessary to improve efficacies.
Quantification and compartmentalization are the main drivers of substandard policy development. Quantification explains the tendency to create solutions based on their financial outcomes while secluding the non-quantifiable outcomes. On the other hand, compartmentalization is the process of splitting social systems and treating each section separately even though their functions intertwine.
Among the most important models of policy formulation are the formal modeling techniques and agent-based framework. Agent-based framework is more effective because it allows policymakers to understand how key variables of interest (agents) behave. It enables policy makers to predict when social variables will behave as expected or unexpectedly. Agent-based framework can determine how unexpected behavioral change will affect the financial, behavioral, and psychological quality of life. Thus, the main question remains, how can the agent-based model be accessed and integrated in policy development to yield quality outcomes?
...
Policy Making and Modelling in a Complex WorldThe work of
1. Policy Making and Modelling in a Complex World:
The work of policymakers will continue to remain unreliable
unless they become conversant with uncertainties and
complexities that define the way different social, political, and
economic variables interrelate. Complexity refers to interrelated
elements and factors, but depicts significant variations in the
way they function or express themselves. As a result, their
connections are unpredictable. These components can interact to
cause expected outcomes. However, they can also generate
deviant and unexpected outcomes. The human economy is an
example of a complex system because the multiple elements that
interact within the social, political, and economic environments
make the outcomes indeterminate.
Regime shifts may begin with simple adaptable changes
only to transition to complex associations with unwanted and
devastating effects. Therefore, policy developers should
determine when exactly the formulated regulations are likely to
shift from the intended purpose towards unexpected
consequence if they desire to improve their efficiencies. This
understanding will ensure effective policy development because
it will highlight when and where restructuring is necessary to
improve efficacies.
Quantification and compartmentalization are the main drivers of
substandard policy development. Quantification explains the
tendency to create solutions based on their financial outcomes
while secluding the non-quantifiable outcomes. On the other
hand, compartmentalization is the process of splitting social
systems and treating each section separately even though their
functions intertwine.
2. Among the most important models of policy formulation are the
formal modeling techniques and agent-based framework. Agent-
based framework is more effective because it allows
policymakers to understand how key variables of interest
(agents) behave. It enables policy makers to predict when social
variables will behave as expected or unexpectedly. Agent-based
framework can determine how unexpected behavioral change
will affect the financial, behavioral, and psychological quality
of life. Thus, the main question remains, how can the agent-
based model be accessed and integrated in policy development
to yield quality outcomes?
