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the future of mobile media


Mobile Convention, Amsterdam, May 8, 2012
 Herman Kienhuis (@kienhuis), SanomaVentures
About me
1. The mobile future is now
Promise delivered
                                            New Computing Cycle Characteristics
                                            Reduce Usage Friction Via Better Processing Power + Improved User Interface +
                                            Smaller Form Factor + Lower Prices + Expanded Services = 10x More Devices


                                                    Computing Growth Drivers Over Time, 1960-2020E
                                                                                                                                   More than
                                                                                                                                  Just Phones
       1,000,000
                                                                                                                 Mobile              iPad
                                                                                                                Internet           Smartphone
                               100,000                                                                                                Kindle
 Devices/Users (MM in Log Scale)




                                                                                               Desktop                                Tablet
                                   10,000                                                      Internet                                MP3
                                                                                                                                   Cell phone/
                                                                                                                                      PDA
                                    1000
                                                                                                                 10B+             Car Electronics
                                                                                  PC                                              GPS, ABS, A/V
                                                                                                                Units???
                                     100                                                                                              Mobile
                                                                                               1B+ Units/                             Video
                                                               Minicomputer
                                                                                                 Users
                                                                              100MM+                                                 Home
                                      10                                                                                          Entertainment
                                                                               Units
                                            Mainframe                                                                                Games
                                                               10MM+ Units
                                       1                                                                                          Wireless Home
                                                                                                                                   Appliances
                                           1MM+ Units

                                           1960         1970         1980     1990              2000            2010       2020
Note: PC installed base reached 100MM in 1993, cellphone/Internet users reached 1B in 2002/2005 respectively;
Source: ITU, Mark Lipacis, Morgan Stanley Research.                                                                           source: Morgan Stanley

                                                                                                                                                  49
Smartphones rule in NL
 Handset                                                                       Consumer
shipments                                                                     penetration
  (mln)

6.0 
                                                                                50%

                                                                                     45%
5.0 
                                                                                     40%

                                                                                     35%
4.0 
                                                                                     30%

3.0 
                                                                                25%

                                                                                     20%
2.0 
                                                                                     15%

                                                                                     10%
1.0 
                                                                                     5%

  - 
                                                                                0%
            2008
              2009
                2010
            2011
        Feature phone sales
   Smartphones sales
     Penetration smartphone (Q4)


                                                                             source: TelecomPaper, GFK
ja           pageviews
                   n/
                       10
                m         
                  rt
                     /1
                        0
                m
                  ei
                     /1
                        0
                 ju 
                    l/
                       10
                se        
                   p/
                       10
                no        
                   v/
                       10
                                          Mobile




                ja        
                   n/
                      11
                m         
                                          PC




                  rt
                     /1
                        1
                m
                  ei
                     /1
                        1
                 ju 
                                          Tablet




                    l/
                       11
                se        
                   p/
                      11
                no        
                   v/
                      11
                ja        
                  n/
                      12
                          
source: Nu.nl
                                                    Mobile rules news consumption
Tablets very quickly taking space in NL
   Tablet
                                                                              Consumer
 shipments
                                                                             penetration
   (mln)


   1.6 
                                                                         35%

   1.4 
                                                                         30%

   1.2 
                                                                                 25%
   1.0 
                                                                                 20%
   0.8 
                                                                                 15%
   0.6 
                                                                                 10%
   0.4 

   0.2 
                                                                         5%

     - 
                                                                         0%
             2009
             2010
              2011
            2012FC
                     Tablet sales
     Penetration tablets (Q4)




                                                                                 source: GFK, Telecompaper
More iPads sold than HP PC’s
2. It’s all about apps -
hardware becomes software
0
                                                 100,000,000
                                                                  200,000,000
                             May-09                                             300,000,000
                             Jun-09
                              Jul-09
                             Aug-09
                             Sep-09
                              Oct-09
                             Nov-09
                             Dec-09
                             Jan-10
                              Feb-10
                             Mar-10
                             Apr-10
                             May-10
                             Jun-10
                              Jul-10
                             Aug-10
                             Sep-10
                              Oct-10
                             Nov-10
                             Dec-10
                             Jan-11
                              Feb-11
                             Mar-11
                             Apr-11
                             May-11
                             Jun-11
                              Jul-11
                                                                                              NU.nl mobile pageviews




                             Aug-11
                             Sep-11
                              Oct-11
                             Nov-11
                             Dec-11
                             Jan-12
                                                                                                                       Apps drive mobile usage




>44
                                                  iPhone


                                       m.nu.nl
                                                               Android




      Source: Sanoma Media
Why Apps?



•Developers community: 500k+ apps
•Easy discovery and installation: App Store
•One click payment: iTunes
•Customizable: Personal, Social
•Esthetic Experience: Apple UI
•Speed and accessibility
•Native use of device capabilities: GPS, compass,
 accelerometer, tilt-sensor, microphone, camera
Sensor to the physical world
      image scanning/recognition:
      Kieskeurig, Layar, Goggles, Klik
Sensor to the physical world
            location tracking:
   Nike+, Foursquare, PlaceMe, Highlight
Sensor to the physical world
      audio/voice recognition:
       Shazam, Siri, IntoNow
Sensor to the physical world
          movement/acceleration:
 SleepCycle, Stappenteller, Waterslide Extreme
Hardware becoming software
Hardware becoming software
Hardware becoming software
3. Changing our daily habits
Sleeping)   Waking)up)
               Preparing)                           Personal)
               for)next)day)                        care)
                                                          Checking)
    Going)out)in)                                         news)
    the)city)                                                   Having)
Parking)car)                                                    breakfast)

Shopping)                                                         Commu.ng)
in>store)
   Watching)                                                          Working)in)
   news)                                                              the)office)

       Having)                                                   Mee.ng)at)
       dinner)                                                   event)
                                                           Lunchbreak)
            Relaxing)on)                                   entertainment))
            couch)
                     Working)
                     out)                                 Planning)
                            Buying)last>                  tasks)
                               minute)       Chat)with)
                                             friends)
intense usage of mobile phone
   US ad spend and time spend per medium (%)
   43%
                                                      Ad spend
         40%   39%
                                                      Time spend




                                22%                               23%

                          16%
                                         11%
                                                 9%
                     6%
                                                           1%

     TV         Print       Web             Radio           Mobile


                                      Source: Flurry (VSS, KPCB, Comscore, Alexa)
intense usage of iPad
                          How much time do you                  At home, what is your
   How often do you
                          spend on the iPad (on a               primary computer that
    use the iPad?
                              day of usage)?                   you use most often now?


Once per day or less                                                    N/A
        4%                           <30 min                             2%
                              >2 hrs
                                       16%                      PC/laptop
                               25%
                                                                  36%
                                       30-60 min.                             iPad
                                          29%                                 62%
 Multiple times a day        1-2 hours
         96%                    30%




                        Source: Sanoma iPad user survey 2011
changing media consumption
  phone                              computer                                                          tablet
    44%                                 47%                                                             9%
  overall                             overall                                                         overall
   views                               views                                                           views




 In the morning, relative           People reading on computers                 iPad readers read more news
 readership across all three        consumer their greatest share of            on the device at night than
 platforms ramps up quickly         online news that way during the day         during other times of day

10%
8%                                               Computer
7%
5%                                          Smartphone

3%
                                                          iPad
2%
0%
      6   7   8     9   10     11     12    13    14      15     16   17   18     19   20   21   22     23
                                    Source: NU.nl (based on sample data)


                                                    >44
changing purchasing behavior
Getting relevant information
on your location                                                                             58%

Making small payments via
SMS for parkings, bus                                                                   55%

Getting a discount/coupon
when you walk past a shop                                                     50%

Banking via mobile phone                                                     49%

Getting detailed product
info in a shop                                                             48%

Purchase products via your
mobile phone                                            38%

Took picture of a     20%
product in store*
Scanned product
barcode in store*   18%

Location-
based ads 11%
                      Source: IAB/Insites consulting (NL, interest) *Comscore (EU5, action taken)
4. And changing our markets
mobile app store revenues
 $ bln
   10
         Paid downloads
         In-app purchases
    8

    6

    4

    2

    0
             2011           2015




                                   source: emarketer (IHS screen digest)
mobile ad spend
           1,585
                                      2010
                                      2011




780                       203




                   83                   10


                                2


      US ($)        UK (GBP)    NL (EUR)

                                      source: IAB
mobile payments
     Paypal (global)                      Ayden (NL)
     mobile payments                    mobile payments
          ($bln)                       (% of transactions)
10                                    7%

8                                     6%

6                                     4%

4                                     3%

2                                     1%

0                                     0%
      2010   2011   2012F                       Sep ‘11   Dec ‘11 Mar ‘12



                        Source: Paypal, Ayden
4. So what’s the future of mobile media?
1. Personal
2. Snackable
3. Touchable
4. Shareable
5. Instant
6. Sticky
7. Freemium
8. Cross-device
and across platforms
9. Physical-linked
10. Location-aware
Mobile marketing case: ParkMobile

              Goal:
              new users

              Channel:
              NU.nl iPhone app

              Results:
              CTR (Run of app): 1,7%
              CTR (Geo-targeted): 4,0%
              High app ranking
              Increased user growth
NU.nl targeting beurs van berlage
11. Transactionable
Mobile marketing case: NYPizza

              Goal:
              positive brand impact, mobile
              site awareness

              Channel:
              NU.nl mobile site, time-targeted
              between 16h-20h

              Results:
              •Significant increase in aided
               brand awareness 72% (vs 48%)
              •Significant increase in positive
               brand perception
              •Mobile orders: +80%
12. Wearable?
5. Sanoma going ‘Mobile First’
Sanoma moving to mobile
                    •Digital magazine publishing
Print to Mobile     •Digital media distribution
                    •Premium mobile services

                    •Mobile content publishing
Digital to Mobile   •Mobile directories
                    •Mobile advertising

                    •International (kids) app publishing
  New Mobile        •Premium mobile services
   services         •Custom (branded) app development
                    •M-commerce
investing in mobile advertising




Mobile display ads
      Content integration
     Radicals / roadblocks / interstitials
    Video

Time targeting
       Device targeting
   Content/channel targeting
       Location targeting

Click to Call
    Click to App Store
           Click to Calender
      Click to Buy
      Coupon
and investing in new
     mobile initiatives
               Internal


          Mobile
                     Planet of
        Innovation
                     the Apps
           Fund

Ideas                            Execution
         Sanoma
           App       Sanoma
        Challenge    Ventures



              External
Aiming to double
            mobile results in 2012

    App downloads         Mobile pageviews             Mobile
        (mln)             (mln/mnth eoy)              revenues
5                        500

4                        400

3                        300

2                        200

1                        100

0                         0
     2010   2011 2012F         2010   2011 2012F   2010   2011 2012F
Are your ready?
Thank you for your attention



      Questions?


        @kienhuis
        /hermankienhuis
        /kienhuis
© 2012

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future of mobile media (kienhuis) @ mobile convention amsterdam

  • 1. the future of mobile media Mobile Convention, Amsterdam, May 8, 2012 Herman Kienhuis (@kienhuis), SanomaVentures
  • 3. 1. The mobile future is now
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Promise delivered New Computing Cycle Characteristics Reduce Usage Friction Via Better Processing Power + Improved User Interface + Smaller Form Factor + Lower Prices + Expanded Services = 10x More Devices Computing Growth Drivers Over Time, 1960-2020E More than Just Phones 1,000,000 Mobile iPad Internet Smartphone 100,000 Kindle Devices/Users (MM in Log Scale) Desktop Tablet 10,000 Internet MP3 Cell phone/ PDA 1000 10B+ Car Electronics PC GPS, ABS, A/V Units??? 100 Mobile 1B+ Units/ Video Minicomputer Users 100MM+ Home 10 Entertainment Units Mainframe Games 10MM+ Units 1 Wireless Home Appliances 1MM+ Units 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Note: PC installed base reached 100MM in 1993, cellphone/Internet users reached 1B in 2002/2005 respectively; Source: ITU, Mark Lipacis, Morgan Stanley Research. source: Morgan Stanley 49
  • 7. Smartphones rule in NL Handset Consumer shipments penetration (mln) 6.0 50% 45% 5.0 40% 35% 4.0 30% 3.0 25% 20% 2.0 15% 10% 1.0 5% - 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 Feature phone sales Smartphones sales Penetration smartphone (Q4) source: TelecomPaper, GFK
  • 8. ja pageviews n/ 10 m rt /1 0 m ei /1 0 ju l/ 10 se p/ 10 no v/ 10 Mobile ja n/ 11 m PC rt /1 1 m ei /1 1 ju Tablet l/ 11 se p/ 11 no v/ 11 ja n/ 12 source: Nu.nl Mobile rules news consumption
  • 9. Tablets very quickly taking space in NL Tablet Consumer shipments penetration (mln) 1.6 35% 1.4 30% 1.2 25% 1.0 20% 0.8 15% 0.6 10% 0.4 0.2 5% - 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012FC Tablet sales Penetration tablets (Q4) source: GFK, Telecompaper
  • 10. More iPads sold than HP PC’s
  • 11. 2. It’s all about apps - hardware becomes software
  • 12.
  • 13. 0 100,000,000 200,000,000 May-09 300,000,000 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 NU.nl mobile pageviews Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Apps drive mobile usage >44 iPhone m.nu.nl Android Source: Sanoma Media
  • 14. Why Apps? •Developers community: 500k+ apps •Easy discovery and installation: App Store •One click payment: iTunes •Customizable: Personal, Social •Esthetic Experience: Apple UI •Speed and accessibility •Native use of device capabilities: GPS, compass, accelerometer, tilt-sensor, microphone, camera
  • 15. Sensor to the physical world image scanning/recognition: Kieskeurig, Layar, Goggles, Klik
  • 16. Sensor to the physical world location tracking: Nike+, Foursquare, PlaceMe, Highlight
  • 17. Sensor to the physical world audio/voice recognition: Shazam, Siri, IntoNow
  • 18. Sensor to the physical world movement/acceleration: SleepCycle, Stappenteller, Waterslide Extreme
  • 22. 3. Changing our daily habits
  • 23. Sleeping) Waking)up) Preparing) Personal) for)next)day) care) Checking) Going)out)in) news) the)city) Having) Parking)car) breakfast) Shopping) Commu.ng) in>store) Watching) Working)in) news) the)office) Having) Mee.ng)at) dinner) event) Lunchbreak) Relaxing)on) entertainment)) couch) Working) out) Planning) Buying)last> tasks) minute) Chat)with) friends)
  • 24. intense usage of mobile phone US ad spend and time spend per medium (%) 43% Ad spend 40% 39% Time spend 22% 23% 16% 11% 9% 6% 1% TV Print Web Radio Mobile Source: Flurry (VSS, KPCB, Comscore, Alexa)
  • 25. intense usage of iPad How much time do you At home, what is your How often do you spend on the iPad (on a primary computer that use the iPad? day of usage)? you use most often now? Once per day or less N/A 4% <30 min 2% >2 hrs 16% PC/laptop 25% 36% 30-60 min. iPad 29% 62% Multiple times a day 1-2 hours 96% 30% Source: Sanoma iPad user survey 2011
  • 26. changing media consumption phone computer tablet 44% 47% 9% overall overall overall views views views In the morning, relative People reading on computers iPad readers read more news readership across all three consumer their greatest share of on the device at night than platforms ramps up quickly online news that way during the day during other times of day 10% 8% Computer 7% 5% Smartphone 3% iPad 2% 0% 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Source: NU.nl (based on sample data) >44
  • 27. changing purchasing behavior Getting relevant information on your location 58% Making small payments via SMS for parkings, bus 55% Getting a discount/coupon when you walk past a shop 50% Banking via mobile phone 49% Getting detailed product info in a shop 48% Purchase products via your mobile phone 38% Took picture of a 20% product in store* Scanned product barcode in store* 18% Location- based ads 11% Source: IAB/Insites consulting (NL, interest) *Comscore (EU5, action taken)
  • 28. 4. And changing our markets
  • 29. mobile app store revenues $ bln 10 Paid downloads In-app purchases 8 6 4 2 0 2011 2015 source: emarketer (IHS screen digest)
  • 30. mobile ad spend 1,585 2010 2011 780 203 83 10 2 US ($) UK (GBP) NL (EUR) source: IAB
  • 31. mobile payments Paypal (global) Ayden (NL) mobile payments mobile payments ($bln) (% of transactions) 10 7% 8 6% 6 4% 4 3% 2 1% 0 0% 2010 2011 2012F Sep ‘11 Dec ‘11 Mar ‘12 Source: Paypal, Ayden
  • 32. 4. So what’s the future of mobile media?
  • 44. Mobile marketing case: ParkMobile Goal: new users Channel: NU.nl iPhone app Results: CTR (Run of app): 1,7% CTR (Geo-targeted): 4,0% High app ranking Increased user growth
  • 45. NU.nl targeting beurs van berlage
  • 47. Mobile marketing case: NYPizza Goal: positive brand impact, mobile site awareness Channel: NU.nl mobile site, time-targeted between 16h-20h Results: •Significant increase in aided brand awareness 72% (vs 48%) •Significant increase in positive brand perception •Mobile orders: +80%
  • 49.
  • 50. 5. Sanoma going ‘Mobile First’
  • 51. Sanoma moving to mobile •Digital magazine publishing Print to Mobile •Digital media distribution •Premium mobile services •Mobile content publishing Digital to Mobile •Mobile directories •Mobile advertising •International (kids) app publishing New Mobile •Premium mobile services services •Custom (branded) app development •M-commerce
  • 52. investing in mobile advertising Mobile display ads Content integration Radicals / roadblocks / interstitials Video Time targeting Device targeting Content/channel targeting Location targeting Click to Call Click to App Store Click to Calender Click to Buy Coupon
  • 53. and investing in new mobile initiatives Internal Mobile Planet of Innovation the Apps Fund Ideas Execution Sanoma App Sanoma Challenge Ventures External
  • 54. Aiming to double mobile results in 2012 App downloads Mobile pageviews Mobile (mln) (mln/mnth eoy) revenues 5 500 4 400 3 300 2 200 1 100 0 0 2010 2011 2012F 2010 2011 2012F 2010 2011 2012F
  • 56. Thank you for your attention Questions? @kienhuis /hermankienhuis /kienhuis