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the future of mobile media


  Future Ideas, Amsterdam, March 15, 2012
Herman Kienhuis (@kienhuis), BusDev Sanoma Media
Amsterdam
Mobile
Ventures
1. The mobile future is now
Promise delivered
                                            New Computing Cycle Characteristics
                                            Reduce Usage Friction Via Better Processing Power + Improved User Interface +
                                            Smaller Form Factor + Lower Prices + Expanded Services = 10x More Devices


                                                    Computing Growth Drivers Over Time, 1960-2020E
                                                                                                                                   More than
                                                                                                                                  Just Phones
       1,000,000
                                                                                                                 Mobile              iPad
                                                                                                                Internet           Smartphone
                               100,000                                                                                                Kindle
 Devices/Users (MM in Log Scale)




                                                                                               Desktop                                Tablet
                                   10,000                                                      Internet                                MP3
                                                                                                                                   Cell phone/
                                                                                                                                      PDA
                                    1000
                                                                                                                 10B+             Car Electronics
                                                                                  PC                                              GPS, ABS, A/V
                                                                                                                Units???
                                     100                                                                                              Mobile
                                                                                               1B+ Units/                             Video
                                                               Minicomputer
                                                                                                 Users
                                                                              100MM+                                                 Home
                                      10                                                                                          Entertainment
                                                                               Units
                                            Mainframe                                                                                Games
                                                               10MM+ Units
                                       1                                                                                          Wireless Home
                                                                                                                                   Appliances
                                           1MM+ Units

                                           1960         1970         1980     1990              2000            2010       2020
Note: PC installed base reached 100MM in 1993, cellphone/Internet users reached 1B in 2002/2005 respectively;
Source: ITU, Mark Lipacis, Morgan Stanley Research.                                                                                source: Morgan Stanley
Smartphones rule in NL
 Handset
shipments                                                                         Consumer
  (mln)                                                                          penetration


   6.0 
                                                                                 50%

                                                                                         45%
   5.0 
                                                                                         40%

                                                                                         35%
   4.0 
                                                                                         30%

   3.0 
                                                                                 25%

                                                                                         20%
   2.0 
                                                                                         15%

                                                                                         10%
   1.0 
                                                                                         5%

    - 
                                                                                  0%
                2008
              2009
                2010
            2011
            Feature phone sales
   Smartphones sales
     Penetration smartphone (Q4)




                                                                                     source: TelecomPaper, GFK
ja           pageviews
                   n/
                       10
                m         
                  rt
                     /1
                        0
                m
                  ei
                     /1
                        0
                 ju
                    l/
                       10
                se        
                   p/
                       10
                no       
                   v/
                       10
                                          Mobile




                ja       
                   n/
                      11
                m         
                                          PC




                  rt
                     /1
                        1
                m
                  ei
                     /1
                        1
                 ju
                                          Tablet




                    l/
                       11
                se        
                   p/
                      11
                no       
                   v/
                      11
                ja       
                   n/
                      12
                          
source: Nu.nl
                                                    Mobile rules news consumption
Tablets very quickly taking space in NL
   Tablet
 shipments                                                                    Consumer
   (mln)                                                                     penetration


   1.6 
                                                                         35%

   1.4 
                                                                         30%

   1.2 
                                                                                 25%
   1.0 
                                                                                 20%
   0.8 
                                                                                 15%
   0.6 
                                                                                 10%
   0.4 

   0.2 
                                                                         5%

     - 
                                                                         0%
             2009
             2010
              2011
            2012FC
                     Tablet sales
     Penetration tablets (Q4)




                                                                                 source: GFK, Telecompaper
More iPads sold than HP PC’s
2. It’s all about apps -
hardware becomes software
0
                                           100,000,000
                                                            200,000,000
                                                                          300,000,000
                       May-09
                       Jun-09
                        Jul-09
                       Aug-09
                       Sep-09
                        Oct-09
                       Nov-09
                       Dec-09
                       Jan-10
                        Feb-10
                       Mar-10
                       Apr-10
                       May-10
                       Jun-10
                        Jul-10
                       Aug-10
                       Sep-10
                        Oct-10
                       Nov-10
                       Dec-10
                       Jan-11
                        Feb-11
                       Mar-11
                       Apr-11
                       May-11
                       Jun-11
                        Jul-11
                                                                                        NU.nl mobile pageviews




                       Aug-11
                       Sep-11
                        Oct-11
                       Nov-11
                       Dec-11
                       Jan-12
                                                                                                                 Apps drive mobile usage




                                            iPhone


                                 m.nu.nl
                                                         Android




Source: Sanoma Media
Why Apps?



•Developers community: 500k+ apps
•Easy discovery and installation: App Store
•One click payment: iTunes
•Customizable: Personal, Social
•Esthetic Experience: Apple UI
•Speed and accessibility
•Native use of device capabilities: GPS, compass,
 accelerometer, tilt-sensor, microphone, camera
Sensor to the physical world
     image scanning/recognition:
       Kieskeurig, Layar, Goggles
Sensor to the physical world
          location tracking:
      Nike+, Foursquare, TomTom
Sensor to the physical world
       audio/voice recognition:
        Shazam, Siri, IntoNow
Sensor to the physical world
          movement/acceleration:
 SleepCycle, Stappenteller, Waterslide Extreme
Hardware becoming software
Hardware becoming software
Hardware becoming software
3. Changing our daily habits
A new category of comfortable
            computing devices




Entertainment/   Information/         Entertainment/   Communication/
Inspiration      Productivity         Creation         Monitoring
XL form          Short form           Medium form      XS form
Push             Pull                 Pull             Push
TV/DVD           Software/ Websites   Apps/Websites    Apps/Widgets
Movies/          Search/Social/       Ebooks/Photos/   Music/
VideoGames       Video                Video            CasualGames
Hours            Hours                Quarters         Minutes
Sleeping)   Waking)up)
               Preparing)                           Personal)
               for)next)day)                        care)
                                                          Checking)
    Going)out)in)                                         news)
    the)city)                                                   Having)
Parking)car)                                                    breakfast)

Shopping)                                                         Commu.ng)
in>store)
   Watching)                                                          Working)in)
   news)                                                              the)office)

       Having)                                                   Mee.ng)at)
       dinner)                                                   event)
                                                           Lunchbreak)
            Relaxing)on)                                   entertainment))
            couch)
                     Working)
                     out)                                 Planning)
                            Buying)last>                  tasks)
                               minute)       Chat)with)
                                             friends)
intense usage of mobile phone
intense usage of iPad
How often do you use the   How much time do you spend             At home, what is your primary
         iPad?             on the iPad (on a day of usage)?        computer that you use most
                                                                           often now?


Once per day or less                                                            N/A
       4%                                <30 min                                2%
                                  >2 hrs
                                           16%                      PC/laptop
                                   25%
                                                                      36%
                                           30-60 min.                                 iPad
                                              29%                                     62%
  Multiple times a day           1-2 hours
          96%                       30%




                           Source: Sanoma iPad user survey 2011
Changing media consumption
  phone                              computer                                                          tablet
    44%                                 48%                                                             9%
  overall                             overall                                                         overall
   views                               views                                                           views




 In the morning, relative           People reading on computers                 iPad readers read more news
 readership across all three        consumer their greatest share of            on the device at night than
 platforms ramps up quickly         online news that way during the day         during other times of day

10%
8%                                               Computer
7%
5%                                          Smartphone

3%
                                                        iPad
2%
0%
      6   7   8     9   10     11     12    13    14    15     16   17     18     19   20   21   22     23
                                    Source: NU.nl (based on sample data)
Changing attitude to marketing
  Getting relevant information on
            your location
  Making small payments via SMS
       for parkings, bus, etc.
  Getting a discount/coupon when
        you walk past a shop
        Banking via mobile phone
  Operating devices in your home
          from a distance
         Getting detailed product
           information in a shop
Purchase products via your mobile
              phone
      Personal location-based ads

                                         0%
 10%
 20%
 30%
 40%
 50%
 60%
 70%
                * Respondent interest - Source: IAB/Insites consulting
4. So what’s the future of mobile media?
1. Personal
2. Snackable
3. Touchable
4. Shareable
5. Instant
6. Freemium
7. Cross-device
8. Physical-linked
9. Super targeted
10. Transactionable
5. And what’s next?
ID & Payment
Personal (health) monitoring
Domotics
Smart appliances
In-car apps
Wearable AR
Implant
Sanoma investing in mobile
               Internal


          Mobile
                     Planet of
        Innovation
                     the Apps
           Fund

Ideas                            Execution
         Sanoma
           App       Sanoma
        Challenge    Ventures



              External
Looking for a strategic investor
to help grow your (digital) business?

       Visit me today at the
     SanomaVentures Skybox


           @kienhuis
           /hermankienhuis
           /kienhuis
© 2012

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Future of mobile media @ Future Ideas by h.kienhuis (sanoma)

  • 1. the future of mobile media Future Ideas, Amsterdam, March 15, 2012 Herman Kienhuis (@kienhuis), BusDev Sanoma Media
  • 3. 1. The mobile future is now
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Promise delivered New Computing Cycle Characteristics Reduce Usage Friction Via Better Processing Power + Improved User Interface + Smaller Form Factor + Lower Prices + Expanded Services = 10x More Devices Computing Growth Drivers Over Time, 1960-2020E More than Just Phones 1,000,000 Mobile iPad Internet Smartphone 100,000 Kindle Devices/Users (MM in Log Scale) Desktop Tablet 10,000 Internet MP3 Cell phone/ PDA 1000 10B+ Car Electronics PC GPS, ABS, A/V Units??? 100 Mobile 1B+ Units/ Video Minicomputer Users 100MM+ Home 10 Entertainment Units Mainframe Games 10MM+ Units 1 Wireless Home Appliances 1MM+ Units 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Note: PC installed base reached 100MM in 1993, cellphone/Internet users reached 1B in 2002/2005 respectively; Source: ITU, Mark Lipacis, Morgan Stanley Research. source: Morgan Stanley
  • 7. Smartphones rule in NL Handset shipments Consumer (mln) penetration 6.0 50% 45% 5.0 40% 35% 4.0 30% 3.0 25% 20% 2.0 15% 10% 1.0 5% - 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 Feature phone sales Smartphones sales Penetration smartphone (Q4) source: TelecomPaper, GFK
  • 8. ja pageviews n/ 10 m rt /1 0 m ei /1 0 ju l/ 10 se p/ 10 no v/ 10 Mobile ja n/ 11 m PC rt /1 1 m ei /1 1 ju Tablet l/ 11 se p/ 11 no v/ 11 ja n/ 12 source: Nu.nl Mobile rules news consumption
  • 9. Tablets very quickly taking space in NL Tablet shipments Consumer (mln) penetration 1.6 35% 1.4 30% 1.2 25% 1.0 20% 0.8 15% 0.6 10% 0.4 0.2 5% - 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012FC Tablet sales Penetration tablets (Q4) source: GFK, Telecompaper
  • 10. More iPads sold than HP PC’s
  • 11. 2. It’s all about apps - hardware becomes software
  • 12.
  • 13. 0 100,000,000 200,000,000 300,000,000 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 NU.nl mobile pageviews Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Apps drive mobile usage iPhone m.nu.nl Android Source: Sanoma Media
  • 14. Why Apps? •Developers community: 500k+ apps •Easy discovery and installation: App Store •One click payment: iTunes •Customizable: Personal, Social •Esthetic Experience: Apple UI •Speed and accessibility •Native use of device capabilities: GPS, compass, accelerometer, tilt-sensor, microphone, camera
  • 15. Sensor to the physical world image scanning/recognition: Kieskeurig, Layar, Goggles
  • 16. Sensor to the physical world location tracking: Nike+, Foursquare, TomTom
  • 17. Sensor to the physical world audio/voice recognition: Shazam, Siri, IntoNow
  • 18. Sensor to the physical world movement/acceleration: SleepCycle, Stappenteller, Waterslide Extreme
  • 22. 3. Changing our daily habits
  • 23. A new category of comfortable computing devices Entertainment/ Information/ Entertainment/ Communication/ Inspiration Productivity Creation Monitoring XL form Short form Medium form XS form Push Pull Pull Push TV/DVD Software/ Websites Apps/Websites Apps/Widgets Movies/ Search/Social/ Ebooks/Photos/ Music/ VideoGames Video Video CasualGames Hours Hours Quarters Minutes
  • 24. Sleeping) Waking)up) Preparing) Personal) for)next)day) care) Checking) Going)out)in) news) the)city) Having) Parking)car) breakfast) Shopping) Commu.ng) in>store) Watching) Working)in) news) the)office) Having) Mee.ng)at) dinner) event) Lunchbreak) Relaxing)on) entertainment)) couch) Working) out) Planning) Buying)last> tasks) minute) Chat)with) friends)
  • 25. intense usage of mobile phone
  • 26. intense usage of iPad How often do you use the How much time do you spend At home, what is your primary iPad? on the iPad (on a day of usage)? computer that you use most often now? Once per day or less N/A 4% <30 min 2% >2 hrs 16% PC/laptop 25% 36% 30-60 min. iPad 29% 62% Multiple times a day 1-2 hours 96% 30% Source: Sanoma iPad user survey 2011
  • 27. Changing media consumption phone computer tablet 44% 48% 9% overall overall overall views views views In the morning, relative People reading on computers iPad readers read more news readership across all three consumer their greatest share of on the device at night than platforms ramps up quickly online news that way during the day during other times of day 10% 8% Computer 7% 5% Smartphone 3% iPad 2% 0% 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Source: NU.nl (based on sample data)
  • 28. Changing attitude to marketing Getting relevant information on your location Making small payments via SMS for parkings, bus, etc. Getting a discount/coupon when you walk past a shop Banking via mobile phone Operating devices in your home from a distance Getting detailed product information in a shop Purchase products via your mobile phone Personal location-based ads 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% * Respondent interest - Source: IAB/Insites consulting
  • 29. 4. So what’s the future of mobile media?
  • 48.
  • 49. Sanoma investing in mobile Internal Mobile Planet of Innovation the Apps Fund Ideas Execution Sanoma App Sanoma Challenge Ventures External
  • 50. Looking for a strategic investor to help grow your (digital) business? Visit me today at the SanomaVentures Skybox @kienhuis /hermankienhuis /kienhuis