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New base 500 special 18 december 2014
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Copyright © 2014
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 1 NewBase 18 December 2014 - Issue No. 500 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Dubai Enoc signs over petrol stations in Sharjah to Adnoc The National When the fuel gauge points to “E”, drivers in Sharjah and the Northern Emirates can breathe a little easier today. Emirates National Oil Company (Enoc) signed an agreement yesterday for the transfer of 25 non-operational service station facilities in Sharjah to Adnoc’s distribution network. The agreement comes on the back of many disruptions in the fuel supply to Sharjah since 2011, resulting in an ultimatum from the emirate’s government and the closure of many Enoc stations. The 25 stations covered by yesterday’s announcement will be renovated and rebranded Adnoc before re-opening. “Through this strategic agreement, we are transferring for free our non-operational sites in Sharjah to Adnoc Distribution,” said Saeed Khoory, the chief executive of Enoc. “The optimal use of these assets will benefit Adnoc Distribution in reducing the load of their existing network in the emirate.” The closures had increased the pressure on the remaining petrol stations in the Northern Emirates, with long queues a day-to-day nuisance. Adnoc has previously taken over 74 petrol stations run by the UAE fuel retailer Emarat in Sharjah, Ras Al Khaimah, Ajman, Umm Al Quwain and Fujairah, with 30 of the stations in Sharjah alone. This is in addition to Adnoc taking over the Sharjah Terminal Depot of petroleum products in Port Khalid. Fuel problems in the emirate stretch back to 2011 when Dubai-based Enoc, which owns both Enoc and Eppco stations, stopped supplying petrol to the Northern Emirates. The Sharjah government issued a 72-hour ultimatum to Enoc to resume refuelling or close down all its stations. This ultimatum was not met and the company closed pumps and shops, and blocked car service bays at all of its stations. Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, ordered Adnoc to take action. The Abu Dhabi company has since increased its supply of fuel to the Northern Emirates and will build more petrol stations.
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Copyright © 2014
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 2 Kuwait Energy oil discovers oil onshore Egypt KUNA + NewBase Kuwait Energy, an independent oil and gas company with assets across the MENA region, and their main partner, the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC), announced that the exploration well Shahd-4 on the East Ras Qattara development lease, located in the Northern Western Desert onshore Egypt discovered hydrocarbons in the Wadi El Natrun formation (Jurassic) formation. Kuwait Energy holds a 49.5 percent revenue interest in the East Ras Qattara development lease, while the remaining 50.5 percent is held by the operating company Sipetrol. Tests of the Wadi El Natrun formation achieved flow rates of 1275 BBLS/D of condensate with 51 API and 12.5 MSCF/D of gas on choke 32/64”; and 2400 BBLS/D of condensate and 25 MMSCFD on choke 64/64". This is a very important discovery as this is the first time that the Jurassic formation is proven to be a hydrocarbon producer in the East Tiba Half Graben sedimentary basin. Sara Akbar, CEO of Kuwait Energy, said: “I am delighted to announce this discovery at the East Ras Qattara. This discovery would also allow for further diversification of our production in Egypt from oil, gas and condensates.”
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Copyright © 2014
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 3 Kurdistan oil exports could total 800,000 bpd in ’15 Reuters + NewBase Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government will ramp up oil exports in the coming months, moving it closer to economic self-sufficiency while it works to clinch a final deal with Baghdad on crude sales and revenue sharing. KRG Natural Resources Minister Ashti Hawrami told a conference in London the Kurd’s pipeline to Turkey could carry 800,000 bpd next year, including 550,000 bpd to be marketed by Baghdad under a first-stage deal reached this month. The increase in exports from the north of the country, which are currently about half that amount, could exacerbate an oil glut that has helped to push benchmark Brent crude down 45% since June to a five-year low below $60 a barrel. Hawrami said he was “hopeful for the first time” the long-running dispute over independent Kurdish oil sales could be resolved due to a “big change in attitude” under the new Iraqi Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, who took office in September. “The KRG will play its full role in helping Iraq to meet its energy export targets,” in 2015, Hawrami said. The two governments are yet to reach a final agreement on Iraqi Kurdistan’s right to export oil independently, but Hawrami said the KRG would continue to sell a portion of its crude while negotiating the terms with Baghdad. “We have set ourselves clear targets for self-sufficiency, so we will never again face the violence of economic threats and embargoes on our region,” he said. Baghdad this year cut off Kurdistan’s budget allocation in response to the autonomous region’s decision to export oil unilaterally, a move it derided as smuggling. The KRG says its right to export oil is enshrined in the 2005 constitution. The interim deal agreed this month restored the KRG’s budget allocation in return for handing some Kurdish oil over to Baghdad. Hawrami said he saw Kurdish-produced oil shipments on its pipeline to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan rising to 500,000 bpd by the end of the first quarter of 2015 from current levels of around 400,000 bpd.
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Copyright © 2014
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 4 The KRG will give 250,000 bpd of Kurdish crude to the federal State Oil Marketing Organisation (SOMO) under the terms of a draft 2015 federal budget. Hawrami said Arbil would be a net contributor to Iraq’s finances by the end of next year. The KRG will market the remainder of its oil independently, Hawrami said. He added the KRG will also allow an estimated 300,000 bpd of crude from fields in the disputed province of Kirkuk to be exported through the KRG’s pipeline under SOMO. The pipeline, which has rapidly increased exports this year, is being expanded by new pumping stations, Hawrami said. Baghdad’s own pipeline from Kirkuk to Ceyhan is no longer operational because it runs through territory controlled by Islamic State militants.
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Copyright © 2014
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 5 Finland and Estonia agree on LNG Import Terminals projects The Finnish midstream company Gasum Oy (Gasum) will build and operate the Finngulf LNG Terminal project in order to import, store liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Finland in connection with the neighboring Estonia on the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. Since 1860 Gasum is importing and distributing natural gas in Helsinki then in Finland for lighting, cooking and more recently as transportation fuel. Finland and Estonia do not have any natural gas resources but are surrounded by giant producers so that 100% of the gas consumed in these countries is currently imported from Russia. These natural gas importation from Russia to Finland and Estonia are covered by long-term contracts. In order to enforce these long term agreements, Gasum stakeholders are to date: - Finnish State 75% is the operator through its Gasonia Oy holding and National Emergency supply Agency - Gazprom 25% as the gas supplier. In the perspective of Finland willing to import LNG from western countries Helsinki Authorities proposed €510 million to Gazprom in order to acquire the25% stake and take the entire control of Gasum. On December 2014, Gazprom board is due to approve the transaction. Despite the high cost of these equities, Finland is willing to take advantage of the declining prices of natural gas out of the western countries and to diversify its sources of supply. Anyway the Finngulf LNG Import Terminal, the Estonia LNG Import Terminal and their inter connecting pipeline should be supported by EU financing. Baltic connector to link Finland – Estonia LNG terminals From the total costs of the project estimated to $500 million capital expenditure, the interconnecting pipeline is evaluated to $200 million out of which 75% should be covered by the EU financing as a typical cross borders project in favor the European energy policy. In this Finland – Estonia common project, Finngulf LNG project should be the main LNG Import Terminal, while Estonia LNG project should be much smaller.
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Copyright © 2014
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 6 Then the two Baltic LNG import terminals would be connected by the Baltic connector project, a subsea pipeline across the Gulf of Finland shallow water. In Estonia the location selection of the LNG terminal is at feasibility study between Muuga Harbour and Paldiski South Harbour. In Finland, Finngulf LNG Import Terminal project should be built near Inkoo (Inga), 50 kilometers southwest if Helsinki. Finland LNG terminal should have a capacity to import 10 to 20 TWh of natural gas equivalent representing from 25% to 50% of a year consumption. Gasum is planning to build the Finngulf LNG Import Terminal project and the Baltic connector in different phases so that it could start receiving LNG carrier on early 2016 and reach the full completion by 2019..
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Copyright © 2014
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 7 US slaps hefty duties on solar goods from China, Taiwan Reuters + NewBase The US on Tuesday confirmed steep import duties on solar products from China and Taiwan, in a decision that could inflame trade tensions between the two countries. Anti-dumping duties for Chinese goods were set as high as 165.04% as the US arm of German solar manufacturer SolarWorld seeks to close a loophole that let Chinese producers sidestep duties imposed in 2012. Taiwan producers face anti-dumping duties as high as 27.55%, according to the final Commerce decision, which SolarWorld said raised average duties for Chinese producers but cut them for Taiwan. Producers in China face separate anti-subsidy duties. “These remedies come just in time to enable the domestic industry to return to conditions of fair trade,” said SolarWorld Industries America President Mukesh Dulani. The move is set to deal a heavy blow to China and Taiwan’s solar panel shipment to the US market, Chinese solar industry officials say. Shares of Chinese solar panel manufacturers, such as Hareon Solar and Shunfeng International, fell more than 2% yesterday, underperforming broader markets. Readying for the decision, some Chinese firms have been preparing to set up factories overseas to sidestep the duties. “In the next few months, we are expected to see some changes in the industry. Some companies will set up plants in southeast Asia or south America,” said Jessica Jin, solar analyst at IHS in Shanghai. The US decision, which will affect companies including China’s Trina Solar and Suntech Power and Taiwan’s Motech Industries, may sour the mood at annual US-China trade talks in Chicago, which started on Tuesday. China’s Commerce Ministry expressed “serious concern” yesterday and vowed to protect its interests in the WTO framework and the US judicial system. “This abuses trade remedy measures, damages the legitimate rights of Chinese companies and violates the US’ duty to respect World Trade Organisation rules,” an unnamed official said in a statement posted on the ministry’s website. In August, China suspended imports of polysilicon, a raw material used in solar panels, in response to surging imports. The Solar Energy Industries Association, which represents makers and installers of solar panels, said it would continue working for a negotiated solution. “It’s time to end this costly dispute,” said President Rhone Resch. Solar manufacturers have recovered over the last two years from a battering caused by an influx of products from China and a cut in European subsidies.
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Copyright © 2014
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 8 US:household gasoline expenditures in 2015 to be the lowest in 11 years Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook The average U.S. household is expected to spend about $550 less on gasoline in 2015 compared with 2014, as annual motor fuel expenditures are on track to fall to their lowest level in 11 years. Lower fuel expenditures are attributable to a combination of falling retail gasoline prices and more fuel-efficient cars and trucks that reduce the number of gallons used to travel a given distance. Household gasoline costs are forecast to average $1,962 next year, assuming that EIA's price forecast, which is highly uncertain, is realized. Should the forecast be realized, motor fuel expenditures (gasoline and motor oil) in 2015 would be below $2,000 for the first time since 2009, according to EIA's December 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The price for U.S. regular gasoline has fallen 11 weeks in a row to $2.55 per gallon as of December 15, down $1.16 per gallon from its 2014 peak in late April and the lowest price since October 2009. Gasoline prices are forecast to go even lower in 2015. Gasoline prices are falling because of lower crude oil prices, which account for about two-thirds of the price U.S. drivers pay for a gallon of gasoline. EIA's latest STEO forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $68 per barrel (bbl) in 2015, with prices up to $5/bbl below that annual average early in the year. The forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averages $63/bbl in 2015. However, the current values of futures and options contracts show high uncertainty regarding the price outlook. For example, WTI futures contracts for March 2015 delivery traded during the five- day period ending December 4 averaged $67/bbl. Implied volatility averaged 32%, establishing the lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval for the market's expectations of WTI prices at the expiration of the March 2015 contract at $51/bbl and $89/bbl, respectively. Last year at this time, WTI futures contracts for March 2014 delivery averaged $96/bbl and implied volatility averaged 19%, with only a $30/bbl spread between the corresponding lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval.
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Copyright © 2014
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 9 Oil Price Drop Special Coverage Mubadala projects in 2015 to be unaffected by oil plunge Gulf news + NewBase Falling oil prices will not affect projects at Mubadala Development Company — the Abu Dhabi- based investment firm — next year. “I’m not expecting any delays or cancellations of any projects for Mubadala,” Homaid Al Shemmari, chief executive of Mubadala Aerospace and Engineering Services, told Gulf News at the UAE Economic Outlook Forum in Dubai on Wednesday. A day earlier, an official from the Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development told an audience at the same forum the emirate overestimated the price of oil for the current budget at $103 a barrel for 2014. Brent crude, an international benchmark, has averaged at $102.35 a barrel for the first eleven months of the year, according to data from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA). The average monthly price for December is likely to bring down the 2014 average. Al Shemmari, who also serves on Mubadala’s investment committee that develops the fund’s investment policies, said non-oil divisions are likely to generate more cash next year. Mubadala has one directly linked oil division, Mubadala Petroleum. Brent crude has collapsed by almost 50 per cent since June. Weaker demand by Europe and China and increasing production of shale in the United States has led to a global glut. On Wednesday, Brent was trading down 0.90 per cent to $59.47, a price below most Gulf government’s break even margins. Asked how the drop in oil prices could impact Mubadala access to government funding in 2015, Al Shemmari said, “From our perspective, more and more we are actually moving away from that government dependency.” Boeing, Airbus contracts Mubadala Aerospace is still in discussions to lock down details of contracts with Boeing and Airbus that were signed in November 2013. “We’re still working with the partners to come up with the business cases. I’m hoping by the end of June next year we will be able to finalise,” Al Shemmari said. Strata already manufacturers some parts for the European and American aeroplane manufacturers.
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Copyright © 2014
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 10 Saudi Arabia to keep spending in 2015 budget -finance minister Reuters + NewBase Saudi Arabia will continue spending on development projects and social benefits in its 2015 budget despite “challenging” global economic conditions, Finance Minister Ibrahim Alassaf said on Wednesday, state news agency SPA reported. The world’s top oil exporter is believed to need an average crude price above $90 a barrel to balance its budget this year, but benchmark Brent crude fell to $59.27 a barrel on Tuesday so current levels of spending may not persist next year. Economists believe Saudi Arabia’s 2015 budget plan, which Alassaf said he had submitted to the Supreme Economic Council and is expected to be announced on Monday, will forecast a deficit for the first time since 2009. Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi last week shrugged off suggestions that Saudi Arabia would cut oil production to shore up prices, saying “why should we cut production?”. Alassaf said the kingdom’s “counter-cyclical” fiscal policy, which helped build up net foreign assets of $734 billion when oil prices were high in the last few years, would continue in the 2015 budget and beyond. “This policy ... will enable the government to continue carrying out massive development projects and spending on development programmes, particularly in the sectors of health, education and social services,” he said. He added that spending on the military and Saudi security would not be affected, and that the coming budget was expected to achieve positive economic growth. The Saudi stock market has plunged in the last several weeks partly because investors fear any state spending cuts would slow the economy and corporate profit growth. Brent forecast at $83 in 2015 not to alarm GCC oil majors Saudi Gazette Falling oil prices, the policy response of oil exporters, reform momentum and politics, will be the main influence on ratings in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) in 2015, said Fitch Ratings in its 2015 Outlook for the region. High oil prices have been one factor resulting in rating divergence in the region and this influence will now lessen as oil exporters come under pressure, while oil importers will benefit. Fitch forecast Brent to average $83/bl in 2015 after $99/bl in 2014. “This will not cause major headaches for the ‘AA’ rated Gulf oil producers - Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia - which have accumulated large buffers,” Fitch said. However, it will increase pressure on Bahrain (BBB/Stable) and the sub-investment grade exporters in Africa - Nigeria, Angola and Gabon (all BB-). Fitch placed Gabon’s rating on Negative Outlook in December. In contrast, lower oil prices will ease fiscal and external pressure on energy importers, especially in North Africa, where fuel is heavily subsidized. Morocco is in the lead reducing subsidies; Egypt surprised by reducing subsidies in 2014 and plans further cuts; Tunisia may follow suit once it has a government in place after end year elections. Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa are oil importers. Fitch believes oil exporters Angola and Nigeria have learnt lessons from the experience of 2008-2009 when substantial FX reserves were wasted supporting unsustainable exchange rates. Nigeria has responded by devaluing the naira and tightening fiscal and monetary policy. However, the currency will likely remain under pressure while oil prices remain weak and in the
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Copyright © 2014
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 11 run-up to the February 2015 elections. Angola is entering 2015 with much stronger domestic and international reserves than 2008 and has been much less affected so far, although its budget deficit will increase. Ghana - rated ‘B/Negative’ due to persistent fiscal weakness - derives only 10% of its fiscal revenue from oil but will nevertheless come under increased pressure to bring its negotiations with the IMF to a swift and successful conclusion in 2015. Zambia (B/Positive) is also talking to the IMF and faces elections in the New Year. Maintaining the recently improved policy momentum will be key to its rating trajectory. Ethiopia and Cote d’Ivoire also each have important elections in 2015. 2014 showed that countries with consistently strong policy records reap the reward of higher ratings. Rwanda and Seychelles were both upgraded a second time to B+/Stable as a strong policy track record bought robust growth and a lower debt burden. Improved governance was also important in Rwanda. The Positive Outlooks on Cote d’Ivoire and Uganda reflect their good policy track records. The opposite is true in Cabo Verde and Ghana, where fiscal policy is weak, and South Africa where lack of structural reform is slowing growth potential and pressuring debt dynamics. The conversion of three Positive Outlooks to upgrades in 2014 means more of the region’s ratings are now stable (71%). However, after placing Ghana, South Africa and Gabon on Negative Outlook, there are now slightly more Negative than Positive Outlooks. Brent crude oil fell below $59 a barrel on Wednesday, near 5-1/2-year lows, as major oil producers signaled that they would maintain output despite a supply glut and faltering demand in Russia and Europe. Brent for February was down by $1.20 to $58.81 a barrel at 1238 GMT. The January Brent contract, which expired in the prior session, hit a low of $58.50 on Tuesday, its weakest since May 2009. US crude dropped by $1.70 to $54.23 a barrel, after touching its lowest since May 2009 at $53.60 on Tuesday.
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Copyright © 2014
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 12 Investors in beat-up oil bonds lean on banks for rescue Independent oil exploration and production companies are leaning heavily on bank credit lines to survive plunging crude prices, making it a nervous time for US funds holding their junk-rated debt. “The question is, ‘How long do the banks keep the heart beating?’” said Francis Bradley III, a Greenberg Traurig attorney in Houston who specialises in energy company financing deals. “It’s not an unlimited lifeline.” US mutual funds hold an estimated $30 billion in rapidly depreciating debt from a group of about two dozen energy-related companies whose bonds are considered highly distressed, according to Thomson Reuters data. Fund managers need banks to keep extending credit so the energy companies don’t collapse and default. But if the price of oil remains unprofitably low, the banks will only stretch so far. And in the event of default, the banks are first in line to get paid, leaving bondholders with less to recover. “Usually when companies need them the most, the banks pull the credit lines in,” said Jonathan Stanley, a high-yield sector manager at Newfleet Asset Management in Hartford, Connecticut, which owns junk-rated energy bonds. Since the end of 2009, the amount of energy debt has surged by 155 per cent and currently accounts for 16 per cent of the $1.38 trillion junk bond market, according to FitchRatings. The Merrill Lynch US High Yield Energy Index is down almost 9 per cent in December alone, and some of the bonds are selling at 30 cents to 40 cents on the dollar. By contrast, the broader Merrill Lynch US Energy Index is off only 2.1 per cent this month. Funds run by Fidelity Investments, Franklin Templeton, Legg Mason and several other companies report getting hurt by falling junk-rated energy bond prices. Some of the companies’ hardest hit funds over the past three months include the $94 billion Franklin Income Fund (down 6.83 per cent), Fidelity’s High Income Fund (off 4.04 per cent) and Legg’s Western Asset Global High Yield Bond Fund, down 7.34 per cent, according to data from Morningstar Inc Fund managers now have to decide to sell their troubled bonds at deep discounts or hold out for a possible recovery. Most managers have been dumping the hardest hit bonds, even at fire-sale prices, but taking a wait and see approach to less troubled issues
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Copyright © 2014
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 13 Ed Perks, manager of the Franklin Income Fund, said the sell-off in the junk-rated energy bond market has been indiscriminate in recent weeks because of investor skittishness. “What we’ve had is a shoot first, ask questions second mentality,” Perks said. His fund is down 6.83 per cent in the past three months as some of his bets on energy-related bonds have soured The $17 billion Fidelity Total Bond Fund has about 12 per cent exposure to the junk bond market, but Ford O’Neil, who runs the fund, says he has largely avoided the names that have been crushed by oil’s rapid descent He said it’s almost impossible to forecast when banks will cut off credit to struggling energy producers. That’s why managers have to bet on the companies with the best fundamentals in terms of liquidity and capital spending discipline. His fund is up 0.96 per cent over the past three months. Energy companies with distressed bonds include Quicksilver Resources Inc, Sanchez Energy Corp, Tervita Corp, Connacher Oil & Gas, Hercules Offshore, Goodrich Petroleum, Venoco Inc, Sandridge Energy Inc, Midstates Petroleum and Samson Investment.Plunging oil prices have whipsawed these small energy companies’ cash flow as they slash exploration plans for finding oil and gas in US shale basins The independents, as they are called, relied heavily on the junk bond market to help fund their operations and to pay down their credit lines with Wall Street banks. But the bond market is largely closed down to them as their survival comes into question These companies are left with a dwindling amount of cash and whatever they can tap from their credit lines to get through what is emerging as a global oil price war. Some of these companies have gone back to ask forbearance from their banks For now, the banks are doing their part to keep the companies afloat and the coupons paid. “It’s never in the best interest of the banks or the bondholders for an exploration and production company to collapse,” Bradley said. “The banks are willing to cooperate. Last month for example, JPMorgan Chase & Co allowed Fort Worth, Texas-based Quicksilver Resources to eliminate a covenant that required the company to meet the minimum coverage ratio on interest payments, US regulatory filings show. The bank also agreed to allow Quicksilver, which has about $2 billion in long-term debt, to exclude exploration expenses when calculating its earnings for purposes of meeting the bank’s minimum. JPMorgan bankers were not available for comment. In another example, Houston-based Sanchez Energy recently negotiated a 79 per cent increase in the borrowing base of its credit line to $650 million from a group of lenders including Royal Bank of Canada and Capital One. The company now says it has $1.2 billion in liquidity But Sanchez bondholders, including funds run by Franklin Templeton, AllianceBernstein LP and Legg Mason’s Western Asset Management, are having a rough ride. The price of Sanchez Energy’s $1.15 billion in debt due in 2023, for example, has dropped 25 per cent since mid September, and the bonds now sell at 76 cents on the dollar
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Copyright © 2014
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 14 Wood Mackenzie Global Trends - Horizons: what to look for in 2015 Source: Wood Mackenzie As a volatile 2014 winds to a close, Wood Mackenzie has drawn on the deep knowledge and expertise of senior analysts to compile a new report, Horizons: what to look for in 2015. 'Oil market concerns will be inescapable in 2015,' explains Paul McConnell, Principal Analyst for Global Trends at Wood Mackenzie. 'With no sign that OPEC is reconsidering its decision to leave production targets unchanged, the impetus falls on non-OPEC producers to limit supply growth and bring the market back into balance.' Weaker than expected global economic growth could put even more pressure on prices. Oil companies will be forced to adapt, and a buyers’ market could emerge in 2015. However, those best positioned to withstand weak prices could emerge as winners when the cycle turns. Elsewhere, China remains a focus. 'There are signs that this critical driver of energy and metals markets over the last decade or more is beginning to mature, with far-reaching implications for commodity demand,' notes McConnell. In 2015, the behaviour of the country’s consumers, the strength of the economy and the policy direction taken by the government will set the scene for energy and metals demand growth over the medium term. Longer term, Wood Mackenzie emphasizes that deep-seated geopolitical, economic and technological trends may point to a new era of weak hydrocarbon demand growth. McConnell adds: 'Such a scenario represents a high-impact tail risk for energy companies in the years to come'. Send us an email to receive a complimentary copy of the report
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Copyright © 2014
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 15 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Your Guide to Energy events in your area
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Copyright © 2014
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 16 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MSc. & BSc. Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA ASME member since 1995 Emarat member since 1990 Mobile : +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years , he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation , operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase 18 December 2014 K. Al Awadi
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 17
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