1. Higher Education at a Crossroads: The Five Worrisome Trends

4. Worry #1The jobless recovery and what it means for families

6. Worry #2The end of the records: applications and enrollment

8. 74% of Fall 2008 freshmen applied to three or more colleges, an increase of 13 percentage points over the last 18 years. The percentage of students who submitted seven or more applications also increased, reaching 22% in Fall 2008.SOURCE: National Association for College Admission Counseling

9. Increases in Undergraduate Enrollment, 1998-2008

10. Projected Change in Number of High School Graduates 2011-2021

11. Worry #3Unsustainable tuition rates and student debt

12. Tuition & Fees SOURCE: The College Board

13. Tuition & Fees Compared to State Appropriations SOURCE: The College Board

14. Tuition Discounting Percentage growth since 1990-91 in average price for tuition, fees, room, and board, adjusted for inflation:

15. Distribution of Debt, 2007-8

16. Total Debt for Graduate Degree Recipients, 2007-8

17. Worry #4The for-profit bubble

18. Undergraduate Enrollment by Type of College, 1998-2008

19. 3-year default rates are 5 times as high as 2-year rates at some colleges

20. Worry #5Families unwilling to pay big bucks just for the credential

22. Asking: What are we paying for? Want quality and job placement. Defining and paying for the core experience..

24. 45% of students made no gains on the Collegiate Learning Assessment during their first two years in college

25. 36% made no gains over the entire four years

26. How much faculty demand matters

27. Students who were assigned more books and more papers to write learned more

28. Those who spent more hours studying alone learned more

29. Field of study matters

30. Humanities, social sciences, hard sciences, and math did relatively well.

32. We’re Both in the Information Delivery Business Audrey Williams June: Academic workplace issues Eric Hoover: Admissions | Head Count blog Josh Fischman: Faculty and Technology Jennifer Ruark: Features and Chronicle Review Scott Carlson: Facilities and Architecture Goldie Blumenstyk: College finance | For-profits| Technology transfer Jeff Young: Technology | Teaching David Glenn: Teaching | Curriculum | Assessment

33. What Are the Signs? “Newspapers had a decade to transform themselves before being overtaken by the digital future. They had a lot of advantages: brand names, highly skilled staff members, money in the bank. They were the best in the world at what they did — and yet, it wasn't enough. The difficulties of change and the temptations to hang on and hope for the best were too strong.” -Kevin Cary The Chronicle, April 3, 2009

34. Contact Jeffrey J. Selingo jeff.selingo@chronicle.com Twitter: @jselingo