- US beef and pork exports declined in September 2012 compared to September 2011, with beef exports down 16% and pork exports down 0.4%. The sharp decline in beef exports was driven primarily by a 52% decline in shipments to Mexico. - For beef, limited supplies and high prices have negatively impacted export volume, though export revenues remain strong. Pork shipments were steady overall despite a 43% decline to China/Hong Kong, offset by increased exports to Mexico. - Through year-to-date, beef export volume is down 13% while the value is up 1%; pork export volume to Mexico is up 17% despite overall volume declines. Substitution of pork and chicken for beef in Mexico has contributed significantly

1. Vol. 10, No. 220 / November 13, 2012
Market Comments Y/Y Ch. in Sep. 2012 vs. Sep. 2011 US Beef Exports
Contribution by Selected Markets to Overall Total
The sharp increase in US beef prices continues to take its World Total (12,305)
toll on US beef export volume. The data for September showed
total shipments of US fresh/frozen and processed beef and
Korea, South 729
veal were down 12,305 MT or 16% compared to a year ago.
This was the ninth consecutive month that US beef exports have Japan 54
posted a year over year decline. Limited beef supplies and the Canada (230)
resulting high beef prices have negatively impacted US beef export Hong Kong 2,407
volume. Export revenues, on the other hand, remain strong and Russia (1,671)
were only modestly lower compared to last year despite the sharp Mexico (6,800)
decline in tonnage. The total value of beef and veal exports in Sep- Egypt (88)
tember was pegged at $387.1 MM, down about 2.6% from last year. Taiwan (506)
Year to date, the value of US beef and veal exports is reported to be Vietnam (3,451)
$3.575 billion, up 1% from last year. Total beef and veal export Other (2,749)
volume so far this year is down 13% from a year ago. Beef exports
metric ton ‐20,000 ‐15,000 ‐10,000 ‐5,000 0 5,000 10,000
were lower across the board. Mexico remains one of the top mar-
kets for US beef but it has shrunk considerably in recent years. A
weak Peso, significant food price inflation and a weak economy Y/Y Ch. in Sep. 2012 vs. Sep. 2011 US Pork Exports
have forced Mexican buyers to look for alternative meat protein Contribution by Selected Markets to Overall Total
supplies to beef. In September, shipments of US beef to Mexico World Total (547)
were down 6,800 MT (-52%) from a year ago. The decline in exports
to Mexico accounted for more than half of all the decline in US beef
exports for the month. On the other, hand US pork exports to Mex- Japan (3,774)
ico in September rose by almost 7,500 MT and chicken was up Mexico 7,492
10,000 MT. Indeed, it appears that for much of this year Mexican Canada 1,706
buyers have substituted more pork and chicken for beef. Year to China/HK (12,862)
date US beef exports to Mexico are 28,772 MT or 28% lower than
Taiwan (197)
year ago. However, exports of US pork to Mexico so far this year
Korea, South
are up 47,250 or 17% from last year. US beef exports to Japan, 1,856
which has been one of the few growth markets so far this year, Russia (635)
were about steady compared to last year. Lack of product availabil- Other 5,866
ity, especially for items that are of interest to the Japanese market
such as chuck rolls and short plates, remains a concern. Cattle age
metric ton ‐20,000 ‐15,000 ‐10,000 ‐5,000 0 5,000 10,000
limit restrictions remain one impediment for increasing shipments
to the Japanese market, a limitation that is expected to be removed
next year. reflection of the much lower pork prices and the relative competi-
tiveness of pork vs. beef. US pork exports to Russia and a num-
Pork shipments in September were about steady ber of smaller markets also helped offset the loss of Chinese busi-
compared to last year despite a sharp decline in exports to ness. Still, we expect overall US pork exports in Q4 to trend be-
China and Hong Kong. Total exports of US fresh/frozen and pro- low year ago levels. Exports of fresh/frozen chicken in September
cessed pork were 147.3 million pounds, only a few hundred metric were 275.4k MT, down about 9,484 MT or 3% compared to a year
ton (-0.4%) lower than a year ago. Exports to China and Hong ago. Chicken exports to Mexico were up some 10,000 MT or 27%
Kong were down some 12,862 MT or –43% compared to a year. A from a year ago, offsetting some of the decline in exports to Rus-
good portion of this lost business was offset by higher exports to sia (-40%) and Hong Kong (-74%).
Mexico. However, the increase in exports to Mexico was largely a
The Daily Livestock Report is published by Steve Meyer and Len Steiner. To subscribe/unsubscribe visit www.dailylivestockreport.com.
Disclaimer: The Daily Livestock Report is intended solely for information purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade any
commodities or securities whatsoever. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are
attempted. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Past results are no indication of future performance. Futures are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a con-
tract’s value is require to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money initially deposited for a futures position. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their life-
style. And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because a trader cannot expect to profit on every trade.
CME Group is the trademark of CME Group, Inc. The Globe logo, Globex® and CME® are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc. CBOT® is the trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago. NYMEX,
New York Mercantile Exchange, and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange. Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. Copyright © 2011 CME Group. All rights reserved.