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Vol. 11, No. 30 / February 12, 2013
US beef, pork and poultry exports pulled back sharply in metric ton US BEEF & VEAL EXPORTS, MT. SHIP WT
December even as the value of those exports continued to trend Fresh/Frozen/Prep/Pres. Product. Excludes Variety Meats. Census/USDA
higher. Below is a brief recap of the latest export numbers: 30,000
Beef: Total US beef and veal exports (excludes variety meats) 25,000
in December were 65,239 MT, 15% lower than in December
2011. For the year, exports of fresh/frozen/prepared US 20,000
R OW
beef and veal were 812,173 MT, down 12% from the previ-
ous year. The chart to the right outlines the trend in exports to 15,000
Canada
main markets for US beef and the rest of the world (ROW). US S . Korea
beef and veal exports in December were weak across the board.
10,000
Exports to Vietnam declined by 4,317 MT (-90%) from the previous Japan
year. The cutback in exports to Vietnam comes at a time when Mexico
5,000
China is purchasing more beef directly from Australia. US ex-
ports to Hong Kong also have increased, with December ship- Viet nam
ments up 4,637 MT (+145%). Beef inflation in China has acceler- -
ated in recent months, leading to increased purchases in world 2010 2011 2012 2013
markets. US beef exports to Japan declined steadily in the second
half of the year and were about 1% lower for the year. December US MONTHLY PORK EXPORTS, MT, SW
Fresh, Frozen, Prepared and Preserved, US Census/USDA
shipments to Japan were down 1,370 MT (-15%). Some believe the 50,000
decline is due to Japanese buyers pulling back on orders expecting 45,000
the Japanese government to relax cattle age requirements for US
40,000 Mexico
beef. While this is possible, we think that the dramatic decline in
the value of the Japanese currency is a more likely culprit. Japa- 35,000
nese purchases of US pork also were down sharply in November 30,000 Japan
and December. December US beef exports to Russia were al- 25,000
most non-existent, down 97% from the previous year. The loss Canada
Ot her Markets
20,000 China +
of the Russian market is significant for both beef and pork. In H. Kong
15,000
2012, US beef and veal exports to Russia were 49,146 MT or 6% of S . Korea
overall US beef exports. Russian officials so far have shown little 10,000
indication that they are willing to discuss the issue of ractopamine 5,000
use in livestock production. With more beef available from Brazil, -
and the willingness of Brazilian authorities to implement a pro-
2010 2011 2012 2013
gram to test for ractopamine, Russia appears confident that it can
source most of its needs from Brazil, Uruguay and Australia, with amount of pork ever exported. Japan remains one of the top mar-
no need for US beef in 2013. If so, the loss of the Russian market kets for US pork but shipments in December were disappointing,
will offset some of the gains expected to be made in exports to Ja- down 24.4% from the previous year. For the year, total US pork
pan. We think Japan shipments will increase in the short term as shipments to Japan were 432,974 MT, down 9.4% from a year ago.
there is some pent up demand for specific cuts. However, the in- The more worrying issue going forward is the prospect of ship-
crease in exports to Japan may not be as large as some think given ments to Russia. Between January and November 2012, Russia
that Japan already had access to eligible product in 2012 but was purchased 89,570 MT of US pork or 5.3% of all US pork exports.
limited by high US prices and more competitive offers from Aus- In December, exports to Russia were just 664 MT and will likely
tralia. be down to zero in January and February of 2013. Pork exports
Pork: Total exports of fresh/frozen/prepared pork in December to North America remain strong, with Mexico up 15.5% for the
were 143,772 MT, down 22,011 MT (-13%) from a year ago. For year and Canada up 16.2%. On the other hand, for the year ship-
the year, total US exports of fresh/frozen/prepared pork were ments to S. Korea were down 10.3% and China down 8.7%.
1.811 million MT, 3.3% higher than a year ago and the largest
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