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Daily livestock report oct 23 2012

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Daily livestock report oct 23 2012

  1. 1. Vol. 10, No. 205 / October 23, 2012Market Comments MILLION POUNDS Meat Protein Stocks in Cold Storage Combined Inventory of Beef,  Pork and Poultry in Refrigerated Warehouses 2,400 Inventories of meat in cold storage rose sharply this pastspring and summer and they continue to be well above year ago 2,300and five year average levels. In the past, an increase in invento-ries was seen as an indication of slowing demand and packers hav- 2,200ing trouble moving product. Today the picture is a bit more com-plicated. In some cases, the rise in inventories reflects efforts on 2,100the part of end users to build stocks as a hedge against expectedrising prices in the future. The surge in broiler wing ending stocks 2,000is a great example, as end users are afraid of even more significant 1,900price appreciation going into the Super Bowl at a time when broil-er producers are indicating they expect further cutbacks due to 1,800record high feed costs. Higher export volume also tends to bolsterfreezer inventories as product needs to be staged before it is 1,700shipped. The latest cold storage surge offered a mixed picture of JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DECthe supply situation, with pork stocks clearly heavy and indicating 5-Year Average 2007 - 2011 2011 2012some challenges in the short term. Beef and chicken stocks, on theother hand appear to be relatively current. Below are some of the 000 POUNDS FROZEN PORK, COLD STORAGE STOCKShighlights for pork and beef: 680,000Pork: Pork inventories rose sharply in August and September as 630,000producers accelerated marketings to get ahead of surging feedcosts. Total pork in cold storage was 630.7 million pounds, 28%larger than a year ago. Ham inventories as of September 30 were 580,000213.9 million pounds, 31% larger than last year. End users shouldstart to deplete those inventories in the next two months for the 530,000holiday period and this will put some downward pressure on hamprices in the short term. Keep in mind, however, that some of the 480,000extra supply will likely go to export markets, especially Mexi-co. Belly inventories are near annual lows but inventory building 430,000has already started as end users seek to build some inventory 5-Year Average 2007 - 2011 2011 2012hedges given strong demand and tighter hog supplies in the com- 380,000ing months. The inventory of pork trim was pegged at 48.5 millionpounds, 30.8% higher than a year ago and 33.8% higher than thefive year average. Poultry: Total broiler meat in cold storage was 651.7 millionBeef: Total beef inventories as of September 30 were 425.6 mil- pounds, 2.7% lower than a year ago. Breast meat inventorieslion pounds, 0.5% lower than a year ago. Inventories of boneless are down 22.6% while inventories of wings are up 31.9%. Endbeef continued to decline and were down 3.2% from a year users are clearly relying on freezer hedges more than in yearsago. Some of the fat beef trim stocks that were built up during the past, especially now that wings are trading at a 50 cent premi-spring and summer have been depleted. Also, record high prices um to breast meat. Turkey stocks were 521.2 million pounds,for lean beef mean end users are more reluctant to have large 2.3% larger than a month ago but still about 4.3% lower than thefreezer positions. Inventories of beef cuts rose 13% from the previ- five year average.ous month, the five year average m/m increase in September is 3%. The Daily Livestock Report is published by Steve Meyer and Len Steiner. To subscribe/unsubscribe visit www.dailylivestockreport.com. Disclaimer: The Daily Livestock Report is intended solely for information purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade any commodities or securities whatsoever. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Past results are no indication of future performance. Futures are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a con- tract’s value is require to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money initially deposited for a futures position. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their life- style. And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because a trader cannot expect to profit on every trade. CME Group is the trademark of CME Group, Inc. The Globe logo, Globex® and CME® are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc. CBOT® is the trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange, and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange. Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. Copyright © 2011 CME Group. All rights reserved.
  2. 2. Page 2 Vol. 10, No. 205 / October 23, 2012 USDA STOCKS IN COLD STORAGE REPORTCOMMODITY Stocks in All Warehouses Percent Of 30-Sep-11 31-Aug-12 30-Sep-12 Sep-11 Aug-12 1,000 PoundsFrozen PorkPicnics, Bone-In 9,293 11,396 9,585 103 84Hams, Total 163,789 195,930 213,892 131 109 Bone-in 90,895 103,603 125,913 139 122 Boneless 72,894 92,327 87,979 121 95Bellies 9,297 14,210 16,688 179 117Loins, Total 26,077 32,369 32,058 123 99 Bone-in 7,487 8,422 8,188 109 97 Boneless 18,590 23,947 23,870 128 100Ribs 45,339 57,690 64,370 142 112Butts 19,150 26,557 25,374 133 96Trimmings 37,058 52,767 48,459 131 92Other 100,715 104,760 111,957 111 107Variety Meats 30,620 29,364 34,401 112 117Unclassified 50,572 60,753 73,873 146 122Total 491,910 585,796 630,657 128 108Frozen BeefBoneless 365,268 368,862 353,595 97 96Beef Cuts 62,322 63,915 72,026 116 113Total 427,590 432,777 425,621 100 98OtherVeal 3,160 4,906 3,965 125 81Lamb & Mutton 22,218 24,233 23,453 106 97Total 25,378 29,139 27,418 108 94Total Red Meat 944,878 1,047,712 1,083,696 115 103ChickenBroilers (Whole) 16,081 15,566 11,032 69 71Breasts and Breast Meat 131,541 101,855 101,765 77 100Leg Quarters 87,227 99,750 90,806 104 91Wings 51,240 56,311 67,600 132 120Other Chicken 383,407 385,861 380,546 99 99Total 669,496 659,343 651,749 97 99TurkeyWhole Turkeys 279,542 325,343 304,604 109 94Turkey Breast 52,608 70,872 66,415 126 94Other 177,500 151,551 150,186 85 99Total 509,650 547,766 521,205 102 95Ducks 5,085 3,279 2,599 51 79Total Poultry 1,184,231 1,210,388 1,175,553 99 97

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