Vision and plans for coming smart society


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HEC Genève - ISS Talk given by Dr. Seang-Tae Kim, President of National Information Society Agency (NIA), South Korea on October 25, 2011 on the emergence of SMART Society.

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Vision and plans for coming smart society

  1. 1. Vision and Plans for Coming smart Society Kim, Seang-Tae PresidentNational Information Society Agency
  2. 2. Seang-Tae KIM •  President, Inaugurated on May 19, 2008 and appointed 11th President of NIA •  Dean, Graduate School of Governance, Sungkyunkwan University •  President, Global e-Policy & e-Government Institute •  Member of Joint Evaluation Committee for Local Government, Ministry of Government Administration and Home Affairs •  Advisor to Presidential transition committee •  Member of Evaluation Committee, Civil Service Commission •  Chairmen of Committee of World e-Government Award and challenge •  Policy Advisor to Committee on Science, Technology, Information and Telecommunication, National Assembly •  President, National Future Policy Institute, National Future Policy Forum •  President of International Research Cooperation Facilitation Committee, Korea Research Foundation •  president of Future Politics and Governance Committee, World Future Society Forum •  Advisory board member of I-ways, Journal of E-Government Policy and Regulation Specialty •  Member of Committee of U-city under Prime Minister’s Office •  Member of National Informatization Strategy Committee• Innovation & e-Government, •  President of Association of National ICT agencies• National Competitiveness & IT Policy •  Co-chair of Future Network 2020 Forum -2-• Foresight, Digital Convergence policy •  Commissioner of ITU-UNESCO Global Broadband Commission
  3. 3. CONTENTSI Megatrend of Future Society and Paradigm ShiftII Smart Revolution and IT PotentialIII Preparing for Future 3
  4. 4. I Megatrend of Future Society and Paradigm Shift 4
  5. 5. Social Paradigm Shift Agricultural Industrial Information Smart Society Society Society Society Agricultural •  Capitalism •  Post-Fordism ( ? Revolution •  Patriarchy Industrial •  Fordism (mass p Smart Information small quantityPrimitive •  Communities Revolution Revolution roduction) Revolution batch producti •  Traditional so Society •  Vertical bureauc on) ciety racy •  Network organ ization Agricultural Industrial Information Smart Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology d Co-evolution of evelopment technology and society Change in society 5
  6. 6. Analysis of Global Megatrend Based on 51 different foresight research sources produced by worldwide gov ernments, agencies and experts (forecast of 2020 on average) 25 resources analyzed by KoreaUS National Intelligenc EU governments including n government and public/priva UK, Germany and Finland,e Council (NIC), RAND multinational companies in te research institutions (Presid Corporation, MIT, Gartn ential Council for Future and Vi cluding Shell, Siemens, etc. Japanese Ministry of Ecer, etc. sion, KISTEP, KISDI, SERI, LGE RI, etc.) onomy, Trade and Indu stry, Committee on Jap an’s Innovation Strateg International organization y, Nomura Research Ins s such as UN, World Future titute, etc.) Society, and International Energy Agency (IEA) Australian 2020 Summit 15 Megatrends of Future society 6
  7. 7. 4 Keywords of Future 15 Megatrends of Future Society Society KeywordsS •  Change in population structure •  Polarization •  Network society Human-orient Technology •  Virtual intelligence space atedT •  Convergence of technologies •  Robots Ageing Economy PopulationE •  Economy serving citizens’ well-being/ emotion/welfare •  Knowledge-based economy •  Emergence of global talents Environment Risk Society •  Climate change and environmental pollutionE •  Energy crisis •  Increased side-effects of technology development Technology De Politics velopmentP •  Globalization •  Increased threats to safety •  South-North unification 7
  8. 8. Keyword 1: Human-oriented Society “Dream Society” “High concept, High touch” Society where imagination and Moving to the ‘Conceptual Age’ w emotions are important here creativity, emotions and intu ition are important ※ Elements of future talents: creativit Daniel Pink ※ High concept capability to create beauty a Rolph Jensen y, teamwork, motivation, stimulation, (Futurist) nd high touch capability to empathize with o(Dream Company CIO) high spirits thers are required Human-oriented societ y with emphasis on cre ativity “Pro-sumer economy” “Age of vita capitalism” Individual pro-sumers who are produc Coming of the ‘Age of vita capitalism ers and consumers change the econo ’ where digilog system combining di mic system innovatively and create ex gital and analog systems is the key Alvin Toffler (Futurist) plosive wealth Lee O-Young concept Professor 8
  9. 9. Keyword 1: Human-oriented Society 9
  10. 10. Keyword 2: Ageing society Ageing Korea: Population of 65 and older will reach 38.2% by 2050 ※ Population of 65 and older was only 3.8% in 1980; but it is expected to reach 38.2% by 2050 with 1.4 economically active person aged 15~64 having to support 1 senior citizen (2010 Social Indicators of Korea, Statistics Korea) Younger Generation ※ Japan’s ‘Lost Decade’ in the 1990s was •  Increased burden (supporting senior mainly caused by negative economic citizens, national pension, etc.) outlook from ageing and active •  Increased burden on social security consumption by citizens Increased generational conflicts Finance Industry •  Decreased tax revenue and Change in generational structure increased spending on social security Ageing Change in household consumption pattern Increased budget deficits Reorganized industrial structure Macroeconomics Savings rate↓ Labor force↓ Investment↓ Household income↓*’Ageing society’ if share of the elderly in total population is 7% or larger; ‘Aged society Decreased economic growth rate * Source: LGERI’ if 14% or larger; and ‘Post-aged society’ if20% or larger
  11. 11. Keyword 2: Ageing Society [Population share by age group] Warning! (Rapid budget increase on ageing) 65 or older 15~64 S&P says Korea might face the same fiscal trou 0~14 ble by 2050 as Greece is now in. 80 or older Korea’s net government debt forecast (in % in GDP) Source: Statistics Korea (2010) Number of economically active population (15~64) is forecasted to decrease from 2016. Age group of those in 30~40s, making up the major part of labor force, already started to decrease in number since 2006.(x 10,000 persons) 2016 (36.19 mil) Economically active (age 15~64) Source: S&P 2006 An international credit assessment agency, S&P for (16.75 mil) ecasts that the increased spending on the ageing s Age 30~40s ociety will increase the share of net government de bt in GDP from 18.0% in 2010 to 48.0% in 2040, a nd even further to 137.2% in 2050. (S&P, ‘Global Ageing 2011’) Source: Statistics Korea (2009) 11 Source: Munhwa Daily (2011)
  12. 12. Keyword 3: High-risk Society Uncertainties that Korea might face§  Low birth rate and entrance into post-aged society§  Climate change and large-scale disasters§  Increased social conflicts and cost due to polarization, Along with efforts to multi-culturalism, etc. overcome the current risks,§  Foreign exchange market crisis and trade war a strategy to forecast the next 10 years or 100 years§  Increased price of raw materials and energy from now and change the§  Lack of jobs and unbalanced manpower supply and de risks to opportunities is mand important§  Expansion of new diseases and epidemics§  Unification and geographical uncertainties (Adapted from ‘UN State of the Future’ – 2018 Korea) Modern society is a risk society Prepare for the black swan, where uncertainties and risks the enormous impact of the caused by modernization highly improbable influence the global environment as a whole (Adapted from Urlich Beck) (Adapted from Nassim Nicholas Taleb ) 12
  13. 13. Keyword 3: High-risk Society Korea is geographically located in a high-risk area where there is always p ossible economic risk increase due to the US-China relationship and North Korea’s nuclear threatGeographically high Increased volatility in financial markets er risk in Korea due to intensified hegemonic co mpetition between Worse con Reduced FDI Agitated Lower intern ditions for US and China and lack of i foreign in ational credit foreign loa nvestment vestors rating ns and rapi d cost incr eases Real econom Impediment y stagnation to economic Shrinking con growth Falling st Rising exc sumption fro ock price hange rate m inflationStronger efforts b s y North Korea to build military t More difficulties for the domestic industrension using nucle Reduced market capita y to achieve long-term export contracts ar weapons lization and more diffic despite rising exchange rates because of ulties in raising capital foreign importers feeling more insecure finance about the Korean market Source: SERI, KIET, KIEP, News 13 Articles, A. T. Kearney Analysis
  14. 14. Keyword 3: High-risk Society < No. of brutal crimes > < No. of persons < Climate change in Korea with forecast> with officially designated infectious diseases> (* Source: National Institute of Meteorological Re search 2010) (* Source: National Police Agenc (* Source: Ministry of Health and y 2010) (* : , 2009.06) Welfare, MK Business News, 2009.06)< Growth rate of foreigners residing in < Real and potential growth < Nominal and real price of oil OECD countries> rate of Korea, %> (in USD/barrel)> Average increase rat Arrows represent average Nominal price 4th Oil-shock? potential growth rate by e for 2000~2008 each stage Real price 3rd Oil-shock 2nd Oil-shockKoreaSpainItalyGreeceCzechPortugalSlovakiaUKHungaryNorwayFinlandJapanLuxembourgDenmarkAustriaSwitzerlandSwedenNetherlandsGermany Poten Real tial (* Source: Bank of Korea, Hyundai Research (* Source: Hyundai Research Institute, MK Busi(* Source: OECD, UN, MK Business News 2010.12) Institute, MK Business News 2009.09) ness News 2011.03)
  15. 15. Keyword 4 : High-technology Calculating Database Online Ubiquitous Intelligence ICT development 15
  16. 16. 4 Keywords and Future Society Risk Society : Cost and budget increases • Manpower decrease • Tax revenue decrease • Budget deficit increase Ageing• Emphasis on hum anism, vita capital Population • Increased economic, social, environment• Future talents: m al and political risks ust be creative Human High-risk • Rapid increase in cos t for risk manageme orientated society nt and recovery •  Increased impact of uncertainties Technology development People Power Society : Creating new values by adding kn • Sustained smart revolution owledge and capacity of individuals • Network improvement (mobile, social and cloud networks) • Reduced restrictions of time and place (virtual space, augmented reality) • Improvement and development toward human-like technologies
  17. 17. Paradigm Shift in Government Operation i n Future society After the worldwide financial crisis, each country is now facing a ‘bu dget deficit’ caused by massive government spending in the past Korea is also bound to experience a greater deficit from the need for providing quality services for citizens in the ageing and risk society Traditional Gove rnment-led Stat e ManagementOpen governmentoperation based o •  Increases citizen rights and roles based on human-oriented creativity n people power •  Achieves a low-cost and high-quality country led by creative citizens
  18. 18. Society of People Power The next age of government : David cameron
  19. 19. Future Government: Power of PeopleShift to a new government operation paradigm by providing rights to people andachieving an open government that understands demand and behavior of people Information Smart SocietyAgricultural Society Industrial Society Society (Post-Information Society) Post-Fordism (small ? Patriarchy Capitalism quantity batch pro Communities Fordism (mass production) duction) Traditional society Vertical bureaucracy Network organizatio n Feudal Society Industrial Society Smart Society 20
  20. 20. II Smart Revolution and IT Potential 21
  21. 21. Rapid ICT Development First e-mail (Tomlinson) (1972)Arpanet test by US Dept. of Defense UCLA-Stanford Data Exchange (1969.10) (1982) Worldwide Internet users 22 billion by 2013 (Forrester Research Internet Population Forecast(2009.7)) Mosaic (1993) WWW (1990) Netscape (1994) First Webserver (1990) (Tim Berners-Lee) (2004) (2005) (2007) (2009) (2010) 22
  22. 22. Smart Revolution: Smart Device Rapid diffusion of smart phones, tablet PCs and Smart TVs Mobile revolution through smart devices: “Internet on a chair”à “Internet on the move” n  Rapid expansion of mobile life regardless of social class, generation and job n  “A day starts and ends with smart phone” n  Has become a social trend (new term ‘mobile-blind’) General Users Politicians Businessmen Lives, works, communicates and ente Publicizes policies and communicates Adopts mobile office system rtains with smart phone with voters Socialize •  Remote working President Obama is a s [Case of IBM] View videos Check traffic •  Interconnection to i mart phone lover ntra-system •  All-time response tRead books Find roa ds o customers •  Faster decision ma kingListen to Search rest 25,000 IBM workers are using sma music Used smart phone to publicize his polic l  aurants l  rt phones for work ies and collect opinions during the 2008 election l  The number is expected to reach Shop more than 100,000 by 2012 l Has been using a specially manufacture Play ga d smart phone since inauguration mes Monitor exe rcise
  23. 23. Smart Revolution: Media Evolution Traditional media evolves to social media after going through ICT and smart device developmentTraditional Internet m Beginning of Social web media edia revolution Source: Social web and future trend (Jeong Ji-hoon, Head of IT Convergence Lab, Myongji Hospital Used as main channel for providing public services, delivering emergency al erts and in elections San Francisco Customer Servi ce Center ‘SF311’ through wh ich citizens can file SNS applic ations in cases of emergency, Active two-way com fire or road damage munication using di verse media Twitter of British Monarchy UK encouraged citizens to vote throug h SNS in Prime Minister Election 24 California Online Innovation ForumSource : Brian Solism
  24. 24. Smart Revolution: Business Innovation IT Evolution Change in Buying Platform Expansion Business InnovationRapid change of technology featur Patterns Expansion from single platform, one-wa Business value focus shifted from t Extension of buying trend segmen echnology and quantity expansiones to become online, intelligent an y communication to integrated platform ted into individualization, customiz to emotion and quality improveme d converged , two-way communication ation, etc. ntDiverse business chan New business concept Improved business pr Value-oriented busines nels s ofit models ses•  Facilitation of Internet an •  Facilitation of smart shopping •  Boom in Internet and mobil •  Active customer-oriented d mobile services , one-person business, cloud s e ads marketing•  Introduction of converge ourcing, etc. •  Coming of the cross-media •  Expansion of businesses nce businesses age contributing to society 25
  25. 25. Smart Revolution: Customized Services Individual Enjoys any customized service he/she wants regardless of time and place Integrated PlatContent & Service form 26
  26. 26. Smart Revolution: New Life Style Policy participationLeisure information Traffic information Cultural life information Job information Sports facilities i One-stop civil service Tour information nformation 27
  27. 27. Smart Revolution: Future Roles of IT ICT is the main source of energy that leads the megatrend such as the econo mic society, creates values, and changes the social system right from the fou ndation It is also the key means to actively responding to future uncertainties and ri sks Create/Expand Growth Engines Agility, Convergence Network Intelligence IT PotentialManage open government Foster creative talents Two-way Overcome time and space limits Achieve smart welf Create new values are society 28
  28. 28. Smart Revolution: Another ICT Leap New Paradigm Needed Smart Society Para Information Society Paradigm digm NOW Dawn of Smart R evolution Industrial Society Paradigm Introduction Growth Maturity Another leap Informatization 1.0 Informatization 2.0 Informatization 3.0 29
  29. 29. Framework of Smart Society Smart Life Smart Gov Smart Biz Service Infrastructure Social Infrastructure Network Service/System Prediction Governance Law
  30. 30. III Preparing for Future 31
  31. 31. Future Values Opinion leaders in Korea selected “happiness’, ‘sustainability’, ‘justice and fairness’ and ‘creativity and imagination’ as new values of the futureAn in-depth interview on ‘Fut Justice & Faiure Korea’ and ‘The Roles of I Happiness rnessCT in the Future’ was carriedout with 10 opinion leaders ( NIA, 2010. 9~11) Future values Creativity & Sustainability Imagination 32
  32. 32. Future Values and New Strategies IT-based strategies are needed to achieve such future values – ‘happiness’, ‘sustainability’, ‘justice & fairness’, and ‘creativity & imagination’ Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Citizen Happine Growing Together ss•  Smart government •  Sharing, contribution•  Smart work •  Supporting SMEs Ageing (standard framework)•  u-health, u-welfare Population •  One-person business Human- Risk oriented IT society Technology development Strategy 3 Strategy 4 Creative Powerho Sustainable Deve use lopment •  Smart talent •  Knowledge platform •  Smart citizen •  Smart Biz •  Smart learning 33 •  Green IT
  33. 33. New Strategic Framework for Future Development IT-based open platform Smart Smart sharing Government Standard Smart Framework Work New Open Values Ageing 1-person Innovation Population Business u-health, u-welfare Human Risk oriented Society Knowledge Technology Platform Smart Development Learning Smart Biz Smart Citizen Green IT Smart Talent IT-based open platform
  34. 34. 1. National Strategy of Platform for Creative Innovation Facilitation of ‘open innovation’ and ‘collaborative creation’ Open platform applied to the entire society Integration Openness Connection Sharing Participation Creation Collaboration Innovation
  35. 35. 2. Platform Government for Advanced Administration < Change in Government Roles > Agricultural Industrial Information Smart Society Society Society Society Mobilize and Plan and create Mediate and “Create distribute market provide services values” resources Government/Public Sector Innovation Open Open Innovation Platform Need for expansion of an open platform strate gy in the entire administration
  36. 36. 3. Open Knowledge Ecosystem for New ValuesPlatform – main source ofcompetitiveness in the sm art age •  Transform into a platform government Government by expanding use of public information a nd government services •  Establish a highly valued platform thro ugh government engagement Open innovation Industries Collaborative crea Citizens tion •  Create new services by actively using open go •  Create group intelligence synergies by providing and vernment information sharing new ideas based on active participation •  Innovate as global platform service industries •  Communicate with government and build a framewor by providing creative platform k by actively using government platform service What is a platform strategy? Value-oriented ecosystem strategy that integrates diverse ideas and knowledge and produces new services by providing people the opportunities to challenge and create Platform itself influences as group power is accumulated through the platform
  37. 37. 4. Open Contribution: Sharing PlatformBased on open contribution and sharing platform, participating organizations can practice beneficiary-oriented social contribution and sharing service by sharing information with others and facilitating collaboration Smart Angels Move Relevant Organi Sponsor ment Council Inquiry/application of Integration of zations volunteer service volunteer service information information Volunteer organizations IT experts Volunteer Service user Provision of participant volunteer service Facilitated management information information management Press/Media IT businesses backup Sharing system platform Educational organizations IT organizations/institutions Provision of Volunteer service Provision of program Statistical statistical information information information Central/local government Students Key Projects Service Mentoring Ability-sha Rights-sha Teaching ring ring Contribution and sharing platform 38
  38. 38. 5. Fostering Creative Future Talents: S.M.A.R.T takes Actions is a pursues Multiplayer Relationships A smart talent knows how to prepares for Share Tomorrow 39
  39. 39. 6. Creating Smart BusinessesDiversify business cha Introduce new busi Improve business prof Expand value-oriented nnels ness concepts it models businesses Facilitated Internet and Smart shopping, one- Rapid development of Customer-oriented marketing, mobile services, introduction person business, and Internet mobile ads, coming expansion of businesses of convergence businesses facilitated cloud sourcing of the age of cross-media contributing to society Platform based Open Innovation Market Drive Attention Get Target Marke Smart Device Real Time n ter t Improve national competitiveness through smart businesses Business Role Government Role Establish foundation for businesses by supporting f Contribute to economic growth by actively utilizi acilitation and preparing for adverse effects ng smart IT business strategy •  Support with business facilitating policies and prepare legal •  Actively respond to changing business trends means for improvement •  Provide diverse products and services to customers •  Actively apply smart IT business strategies to government se 40 rvices
  40. 40. Closing Informatization 3.0 Government 3.0 IT-based creative Creative citizens Smart Government powerhouse leadingOpen innovation and coll People Smart government based o aborative creation n individualization, intellige Power nce and platforms Low-cost, high-qu ality country Open knowledge ecosystem bas ed on smart infrastructure Open Innovation New ValuesCreative and Human-oriented Smart Society- Improving from an IT powerhouse to a smart country guiding the world 41
  41. 41. Thank you! 42 26/30