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IRC Symposium 2010: Pumps, Pipes and Promises
                      Costs, Finances and Accountability for Sustainable WASH services




      Improving the robustness of
      financial and economic analysis
      of sanitation systems
         Jonathan Parkinson and Steffen Blume




          November 2010 – The Hague



__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                           25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 1
Working Group 2 - Costs & Economics

     There is a lack of a consistent methodological
     approach to derive comparable data for the
     economic analysis of sanitation systems.
     There is a need to :

     Strengthen capabilities to quantify the economic
    benefits of sanitation.

     Standardise methodologies for systematic
    collation of financial and economic data.

     Share data sets to allow for cross-examination and
    comparison of results.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                           25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 2
Uses of Financial and Economic Analysis


     Type of analysis

    Project design - Sound financial analysis is
   fundamental for good project design.

    Sanitation programming - Financial analysis also
   important to compare long term costs in order to identify
   the most cost effective sanitation system.

    Policy decisions - Results from economic analysis can
   play an import role in influencing political decisions about
   the need to invest in improved sanitation.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                           25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 3
Categories of costs and benefits


1) Financial expenditures including CAPEX and OPEX,

2) Economic benefits not necessarily directly linked with the
   financial expenditures

3) Broader economic benefits including those listed under
   2) plus benefits located outside the area of the defined
   project.

4) Indirect economic costs and benefits which cannot be
   attributed to financial expenditures or revenue but can be
   quantified in monetary terms.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                           25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 4
Types of economic benefit


              Health: the full costs of health care from an institutional
               perspective.
              Productivity: income associated with lost time from caring
               for the sick.
              Extended lifespan: better health leading to extended
               lifespan and increased income potential.
              Education: increased attendance at school and improved
               cognitive ability.
              Environment quality: increased land value due to
               improved environmental conditions.
              Time benefits: as a result of closer access to a toilet and
               shorter waiting times at public toilets (resulting in additional
               time for work or study).
              Tourism: potential for increased revenue from tourism.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                           25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 5
Introduction to WSP study




                                          Comparison of 3 case studies in SSA
                                         (Uganda, South Africa and Burkina Faso)
                                          Analyses included CAPEX and OPEX
                                          Economic cost include: health, pollution
                                         and reuse
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                           25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 6
Approaches to monetize the benefits of excreta reuse


     Methodology
 1) Market value of nutrients from excreta based
    upon the value of synthetic fertilizer in the local
    market.
 2) Additional crop yield as empirical equation
    related to nutrients contained in excreta.




__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                           25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 7
Sensitivity analysis 1:
                                    Impact of availability of land



                              700
        household per annum




                              600
          kg Potatoes per




                              500
                              400
                              300
                              200
                              100
                                0
                                    0      0.2     0.4        0.6       0.8          1          1.2          1.4
                                                         Area of Land (ha)




__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                           25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 8
Sensitivity analysis 2:
                       Impact of type and market value of crop

                                         Area of land available for reuse per household
                                                0.2 ha                  0.5 ha               1 ha
         Financial
             NPV
                                                 US$                     US$                 US$
         no reuse                               -1376
         Reuse               Potato             -1050                    -718                -487
                             Maize               -823                    -258                -134
         Economic
            NPV
                                                 US$                     US$                 US$
         no reuse                               -1518
         Reuse               Potato             -1284                    -1045               -879
                             Maize              -1120                    -714                -432


__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                           25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 9
Sensitivity analysis 3:
                          Influence of agricultural conditions



                            very poor         poor          average           good            ideal
                     0

                   -200
            US$




                   -400

                   -600
            NPV




                   -800

                  -1000

                  -1200




__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                           25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 10
Results 4:
                         Net impact of reuse on overall NPV

                                              High Cost Toilet                           Low Cost Toilet

                                      Financial NPV              Economic        Financial NPV             Economic
                                                                     NPV                                       NPV
                                  Household      Total                       Household       Total

     UDDT          Uganda           -484         -607              -345         -55          -178            +111

                   South Africa     -1217        -1376            -1518          -               -            -

                   Burkina Faso     -342         -691              -560        -192          -349            -396




     Pit latrine   Uganda           -647         -677              -492        -301          -331            -124

                   South Africa     -1230        -1273            -1148          -               -            -

                   Burkina Faso     -759         -850              -842        -336          -427            -380




     Results indicate absence and/or undervaluation of health,
     social and environmental benefits. Need to develop modeling
     capabilities to 1) monetize improvement of water pollution
     (including groundwater) costs and 2) benefits related to time
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                           25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 11
Recommendations for model development

  Excreta reuse:

   Development of standardized methodology as
  economic benefits of excreta reuse is found to be
  particularly complex.

   Systematic literature review (meta-analysis) of the
  increased crop yields in relation to the rate of fertilizer
  application.

   Empirical research for relationship between fertilizer and
  increased yields for better understanding of yield from different
  crops in different agricultural conditions.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                           25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 12
Further recommendations

 Need for greater understanding on the assumptions that
 are made when deriving cost and benefit data.
 Use confidence grades to take into account uncertainties
 related to the reliability and accuracy of data.
 Differentiation of costs related to capital maintenance.
 Further attention is required to monitor project support
 costs
 Qualitative assessment of existing facilities should be
 linked to a rating system in order to arrive at more realistic,
 valid and credible data set.




__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                           25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 13
Proposed cost categories for financial and economic
                       analysis used for a) project design, b) sanitation
                       programming and c) policy making




__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                           25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 14
Working Group 2 - Costs & Economics



          http://www.susana.org/lang-en/working-groups/wg02




       jonathan.parkinson@iwahq.org                                     steffen.blume@gtz.de



           Thanks for your attention!
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
                                           25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 15

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11 improving the robustness of financial and economic analysis of sanitation systems presentation

  • 1. IRC Symposium 2010: Pumps, Pipes and Promises Costs, Finances and Accountability for Sustainable WASH services Improving the robustness of financial and economic analysis of sanitation systems Jonathan Parkinson and Steffen Blume November 2010 – The Hague __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 1
  • 2. Working Group 2 - Costs & Economics There is a lack of a consistent methodological approach to derive comparable data for the economic analysis of sanitation systems. There is a need to :  Strengthen capabilities to quantify the economic benefits of sanitation.  Standardise methodologies for systematic collation of financial and economic data.  Share data sets to allow for cross-examination and comparison of results. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 2
  • 3. Uses of Financial and Economic Analysis Type of analysis  Project design - Sound financial analysis is fundamental for good project design.  Sanitation programming - Financial analysis also important to compare long term costs in order to identify the most cost effective sanitation system.  Policy decisions - Results from economic analysis can play an import role in influencing political decisions about the need to invest in improved sanitation. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 3
  • 4. Categories of costs and benefits 1) Financial expenditures including CAPEX and OPEX, 2) Economic benefits not necessarily directly linked with the financial expenditures 3) Broader economic benefits including those listed under 2) plus benefits located outside the area of the defined project. 4) Indirect economic costs and benefits which cannot be attributed to financial expenditures or revenue but can be quantified in monetary terms. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 4
  • 5. Types of economic benefit  Health: the full costs of health care from an institutional perspective.  Productivity: income associated with lost time from caring for the sick.  Extended lifespan: better health leading to extended lifespan and increased income potential.  Education: increased attendance at school and improved cognitive ability.  Environment quality: increased land value due to improved environmental conditions.  Time benefits: as a result of closer access to a toilet and shorter waiting times at public toilets (resulting in additional time for work or study).  Tourism: potential for increased revenue from tourism. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 5
  • 6. Introduction to WSP study  Comparison of 3 case studies in SSA (Uganda, South Africa and Burkina Faso)  Analyses included CAPEX and OPEX  Economic cost include: health, pollution and reuse __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 6
  • 7. Approaches to monetize the benefits of excreta reuse Methodology 1) Market value of nutrients from excreta based upon the value of synthetic fertilizer in the local market. 2) Additional crop yield as empirical equation related to nutrients contained in excreta. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 7
  • 8. Sensitivity analysis 1: Impact of availability of land 700 household per annum 600 kg Potatoes per 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Area of Land (ha) __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 8
  • 9. Sensitivity analysis 2: Impact of type and market value of crop Area of land available for reuse per household 0.2 ha 0.5 ha 1 ha Financial NPV US$ US$ US$ no reuse -1376 Reuse Potato -1050 -718 -487 Maize -823 -258 -134 Economic NPV US$ US$ US$ no reuse -1518 Reuse Potato -1284 -1045 -879 Maize -1120 -714 -432 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 9
  • 10. Sensitivity analysis 3: Influence of agricultural conditions very poor poor average good ideal 0 -200 US$ -400 -600 NPV -800 -1000 -1200 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 10
  • 11. Results 4: Net impact of reuse on overall NPV High Cost Toilet Low Cost Toilet Financial NPV Economic Financial NPV Economic NPV NPV Household Total Household Total UDDT Uganda -484 -607 -345 -55 -178 +111 South Africa -1217 -1376 -1518 - - - Burkina Faso -342 -691 -560 -192 -349 -396 Pit latrine Uganda -647 -677 -492 -301 -331 -124 South Africa -1230 -1273 -1148 - - - Burkina Faso -759 -850 -842 -336 -427 -380 Results indicate absence and/or undervaluation of health, social and environmental benefits. Need to develop modeling capabilities to 1) monetize improvement of water pollution (including groundwater) costs and 2) benefits related to time __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 11
  • 12. Recommendations for model development Excreta reuse:  Development of standardized methodology as economic benefits of excreta reuse is found to be particularly complex.  Systematic literature review (meta-analysis) of the increased crop yields in relation to the rate of fertilizer application.  Empirical research for relationship between fertilizer and increased yields for better understanding of yield from different crops in different agricultural conditions. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 12
  • 13. Further recommendations Need for greater understanding on the assumptions that are made when deriving cost and benefit data. Use confidence grades to take into account uncertainties related to the reliability and accuracy of data. Differentiation of costs related to capital maintenance. Further attention is required to monitor project support costs Qualitative assessment of existing facilities should be linked to a rating system in order to arrive at more realistic, valid and credible data set. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 13
  • 14. Proposed cost categories for financial and economic analysis used for a) project design, b) sanitation programming and c) policy making __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 14
  • 15. Working Group 2 - Costs & Economics http://www.susana.org/lang-en/working-groups/wg02 jonathan.parkinson@iwahq.org steffen.blume@gtz.de Thanks for your attention! __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 25 March 09 • Eschborn• Germany I slide 15