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Mwaba Coster Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com
ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 12, (Part - 2) December 2015, pp.49-56
www.ijera.com 49|P a g e
An Imperfect Preventive Maintenance Policy Considering
Reliability Limit
Mwaba Coster*, Qiong Liu**
State Key Laboratory of Digital Manufacturing Equipment and Technology School of Mechanical Science and
Engineering Huazhong University of Science and Technology Wuhan 430074, PR China
Abstract
This paper discusses an imperfect preventive maintenance model for a deteriorating repairable system with
consideration of the reliability limitand random maintenance quality. The model is derived from the
combination of failure rate adjustment and age over an infinite time horizon. The maintenance intervals are
obtained assuming both the failure rate increase factor and age restoration factor are random variables with a
uniform distribution. The optimal policy with a sensitivity analysis showing how different cost parameters affect
the long run average maintenance cost rate is presented.
Keywords: Imperfect preventive maintenance, virtual age, failure rate, reliability limit,
I. Introduction
The maintenance of deteriorating systems is
often imperfect. Previous studies have shown that the
imperfect preventive maintenance (PM) can reduce
the wear rate and aging effects of deteriorating
systems to a certain level between the conditions of
β€˜as good as new’ (AGAN) and β€˜as bad as old’
(ABAO),and partially restore the performance and
reliability of the system so as to extend its life and
reduce the frequency of failures[1]. This is achieved
by the two commonly used policies, periodic and
sequential preventive maintenance actions. In order
to satisfy the requirements of high reliability and low
maintenance cost for aging equipment during the
wear period, a suitable sequential PM policy is
necessary.
Maintenance optimization of repairable systems
was initiated by [2]. Since then, a number of
maintenance models for repairable systems have
appeared in literature.[3]proposed the improvement
factor method to measure the restoration effect of PM
for the deteriorating systems, two maintenance
policies, i.e., single and multi-component systems.
And [4] proposed sequential imperfect PM model and
two sequential PM models called hazard rate
adjustment and age models were proposed by [5].
[6]and[7] introduced adjustment factors in
hazard rate and effective age after imperfect PM
models respectively. [8] extended model [2]into two
maintenance policies, i.e., single and multi-
component systems and observed that, the effect of
maintenance actions can be modeled using system
virtual age or failure rate functions.[9,10] introduced
the concept of virtual age to model the effect of
imperfect repair. [11] studied the modelling of the
hazard rate restoration after performing a PM
activity. These models are to determine the optimal
time interval between PMs and the number of PMs
before replacing the system by minimizing the
expected average cost over a finite or infinite time
span.[12] generalized the virtual age model to a
virtual age process for imperfect repair of repairable
systems and [13] extended the age reduction idea to
model periodic imperfect PM. [14,15] introduced two
hybrid sequential PM models incorporating failure
rate adjustment and age reduction factors. The two
models assumed that PM actions not only reduce the
effective age to a certain value but also increase the
slope of failure rate function as equipment ages.
Based on the reduction of failure intensity and
virtual age,[16] proposed two classes of imperfect
repair models based on the reduction of failure
intensity and virtual age, which is arithmetic reduction
of intensity (ARI) model and arithmetic reduction of
age (ARA) model, respectively.
[17] proposed a general PM model that
incorporates three types of PM, i.e., imperfect
preventive maintenance(IPM), perfect preventive
maintenance (PPM) and failed preventive maintenance
(FPM), and obtained an optimal PM schedule
maximizing the availability of a repairable
system.[18]considered sequential PM model for a finite
time span. They considered three models: minimal
repair, block replacement and simple replacement.[19]
built on [20] model where each PM application reduces
the effective age. They considered age reduction model
where parts of the system are non-maintainable. [21]
introduced phasic sequential PM that considers
improvement factor for machine age.[22]considered
stochastic maintenance policy for a system degradation
over a finite life time. They usedgenetic algorithm
(GA) to solve their model. The maintenance
improvement was considered stochastic. [23]
considered two types of failures, catastrophic and
RESEARCH ARTICLE OPEN ACCESS
Mwaba Coster Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com
ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 12, (Part - 2) December 2015, pp.49-56
www.ijera.com 50|P a g e
minor, and considered the improvement in hazard rate
function.[24]did a comparative analysis of construction
equipment failures using the classical power law
models and the new time series models; the researcher
found out that the power law models are easy to apply
and are capable of predicting reliability metrics at both
the system and subsystem levels with fair results, while
time series models based on predictive data mining
algorithms are more flexible, comprehensive, and
accurate by taking various influencing factors into
account.Although the primary criterion for judging
preventive maintenance is increasing in availability,
most of the existing optimal sequential PM policies are
developed by minimizing the expected cost rate only
without accounting for reliability limit.
This makes the system to have a very low
reliability at the time of preventive replacement or
overhaul,[25],[26],[27]because in practicehigh
reliability is usually required to avoid high probability
of system unexpected failures[28], [29]. [30]observed
that, each PM action in sequential PM model has a
different quality, which requires a large number of
failure data to estimate it. However, in real
circumstances, it is usually difficult to specifythe
quality of a PM action precisely as it depends on the
available resources, i.e., material, technological,
human, time, etc. Some researcher seven assumed that
the quality of PM as a fixed constant, which is usually
not true in many situations. In this case, it is suitable to
assume that restoration factor of PM or failure rate
increase factor is a random variable with a probability
distribution[30].
This article analyses a hybrid model of sequential
imperfect PM by minimizing the long-run average cost
rate considering reliability limit for deteriorating
repairable systems with random maintenance quality.
The proposed model regards the failure rate increase
factor and the restoration factor as random variables
with a uniform probability distribution. An example is
also presented with a discussion of parameters that
affect maintenance quality.
II. Model Description and Assumptions
a. The repairable system deteriorates with usage
and age. The planning horizon is infinite and the
times for preventive maintenance, minimal repair
and replacement is negligible.
b. The system failure rate without PM is continuous
and strictly increasing. The failure rate after the
π‘–π‘‘β„Ž PM is β„Žπ‘– π‘₯ = πœƒβ„Žπ‘–βˆ’1 π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 , 0 ≀ π‘₯ < 𝑇𝑖
c. The system undergoes minimal repair upon
failures between two adjacent PM actions and
the repairs do not change the failure rate or the
system effective age.
d. The imperfect PM is performed at a sequence
𝑑1, 𝑑2, … , π‘‡π‘βˆ’1, and the system is replaced at 𝑇𝑁
to β€˜as good as new’ 𝐴𝐺𝐴𝑁 state.
e. The failure rate increase factor and restoration
factor are all random variables and follow
uniform distribution.
Notation
f(.) probability density function (pdf)
F(.) cumulative distribution function
(cdf)
Fi number of failures for the ith PM
interval
h(.) system failure rate
n number of failures for an
observed repairable system
N number of PM actions before
system replacement
N*
optimal value of N
q restoration factor immediately
after the π‘–π‘‘β„Ž PM, 0 ≀ π‘ž ≀ 1
R predetermined reliability
R(.) reliability function
ti time for the ith PM, 𝑑1 + 𝑑2+, … , 𝑇𝑁 (𝑖 =
1,2, … , 𝑁)
Ti time interval between (i-1)th and
ith PM actions 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑁
u failure rate increase factor upper
limit
ΞΈ failure rate increase factor
immediately after the π‘–π‘‘β„Ž PM, 𝑒 β‰₯ πœƒ β‰₯ 1
vi system virtual age after ithPM 𝑖 =
1,2,…,𝑁
Ξ² Weibull shape parameter (Ξ² > 1)
Ξ» Weibull scale parameter (Ξ» > 0) cm, cp, cr
minimal repair, PM and system
replacement cost respectively.
C(N), C(N*)long run average cost rate with N
and N* cycles respectively.
2.1 The failure rate and reliability function of the
model
Consider a repairable system which is put into
operation at time t = 0 and is minimally repaired
between two adjacent preventive maintenance (PM)
actions upon failure. Based on Kijima type virtual
age idea, the virtual age πœ—π‘– of the equipment after the
ith PM can be given by [9].
πœ—π‘– = πœ—π‘–βˆ’1 + π‘žπ‘‡π‘– = π‘žπ‘‘π‘– 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑁 (1)
When π‘ž = 0 , it implies the equipment has been
restored to β€˜as good as new’ (AGAN) state, i.e.,
perfect maintenance has been performed; while
π‘ž = 1 means the maintenance action has no effect on
the condition of the equipment and it remains β€˜as bad
as old’(ABAO),i.e., minimal repair or imperfect
maintenance has been performed.
According to[9], if the equipment’s virtual age πœ—π‘–βˆ’1
after the (i-1)th PM, then the time interval x between
the (i-1)th and ith PM has the following conditional
cumulative distribution function (cdf)
Mwaba Coster Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com
ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 12, (Part - 2) December 2015, pp.49-56
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𝐹 π‘₯|πœ—π‘–βˆ’1 =
𝐹 π‘₯+πœ— π‘–βˆ’1 βˆ’πΉ πœ— π‘–βˆ’1
1βˆ’πΉ πœ— π‘–βˆ’1
= 1 βˆ’
𝑅 π‘₯+πœ— π‘–βˆ’1
𝑅 πœ— π‘–βˆ’1
, 0 ≀ π‘₯ ≀ 𝑇𝑖 (2)
where𝐹 βˆ™ and R βˆ™ are cdf and reliability functions
respectively.
The reliability function of the Weibull process for the
interval x can be expressed as [31-33]
𝑅 π‘₯ = 𝑒π‘₯𝑝 βˆ’πœ†π‘₯ 𝛽
, 0 ≀ π‘₯ ≀ 𝑇𝑖 (3)
where Ξ» πœ† > 0 and Ξ² 𝛽 > 1 are the scale and shape
parameters of the Weibull process respectively.
Adopting the Weibull process, being the widely used
in Kijima type virtual age model for repairable
systems due to its flexibility, to describe the
imperfect maintenance based on equations (1) to
(3).The conditional reliability of the equipment
within the time interval can be derived as follows
𝑅 π‘₯|πœ—π‘–βˆ’1 =
𝑅 π‘₯+πœ— π‘–βˆ’1
𝑅 πœ— π‘–βˆ’1
= 𝑒π‘₯𝑝 βˆ’πœ† π‘₯ +
π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1π›½βˆ’ π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1𝛽0≀ π‘₯≀ 𝑇𝑖 (4)
Taking the negative derivative with respect to x in
equation (4), we get the corresponding probability
density function (pdf)
𝑓 π‘₯|πœ—π‘–βˆ’1 =
βˆ’π‘‘π‘… π‘₯|πœ— π‘–βˆ’1
𝑑π‘₯
= πœ†π›½ π‘₯ +
π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1π›½βˆ’1expβˆ’ πœ†π‘₯+π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1π›½βˆ’ π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1𝛽
0 ≀ π‘₯ ≀ 𝑇𝑖 (5)
Thus, the conditional failure rate can be obtained by
β„Ž π‘₯|πœ—π‘–βˆ’1 =
𝑓 π‘₯|πœ— π‘–βˆ’1
𝑅 π‘₯|πœ— π‘–βˆ’1
= πœ†π›½ π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1
π›½βˆ’1
, 0 ≀ π‘₯ ≀
𝑇𝑖 (6)
The failure rate of deteriorating repairable
systems normally increases with usage and age
especially during the wear period. Therefore, the
system would need more frequent maintenance
actions as the failure rate of the ith PM interval
increases more quickly than that of the (i-1)th PM
interval. For the proposed hybrid model, the failure
rate increase factor πœƒ is added to the Kijima type
virtual age model to determine the maintenance
policy.
Assuming that the failure rate of a deteriorating
repairable system after the ithPM is: β„Žπ‘– π‘₯ =
πœƒβ„Žπ‘– π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 , then β„Žπ‘– π‘₯ = πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1
β„Ž π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 ,
π‘€β„Žπ‘’π‘Ÿπ‘’ πœƒ(πœƒ β‰₯ 1) is the failure rate increase factor
and is a random variable, and β„Ž π‘₯ is the equipment
failure rate when there are no PM actions. Therefore,
from equations (4) and (6), the combined reliability
and failure rate function of the proposed model
within the time interval Ti will be
𝑅𝑖 π‘₯ = 𝑒π‘₯𝑝 βˆ’πœ†πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1 π‘₯+π‘žπ‘‘ π‘–βˆ’1
𝛽 βˆ’ π‘žπ‘‘ π‘–βˆ’1
𝛽
,
0 ≀ π‘₯ ≀ 𝑇𝑖 (7)
and β„Žπ‘– π‘₯ = πœ†π›½πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1
π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1
π›½βˆ’1
0 ≀ π‘₯ ≀ 𝑇𝑖 (8)
respectively. If the failure rate is used to express the
reliability function, then reliability function is
expressed as
𝑅𝑖 π‘₯ = 𝑒π‘₯𝑝 βˆ’ β„Žπ‘–
π‘₯
0
π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯ =
𝑒π‘₯𝑝 βˆ’ πœ†π›½πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1π‘₯
0
π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1
π›½βˆ’1
𝑑π‘₯ 0 ≀ π‘₯ ≀ 𝑇𝑖
(9)
In practice, the degree of each preventive
maintenance action depend on the available
resources, i.e., material, technological, human, time
etc. [10] extended the improvement factor q and
observed that it is a random variable with a value
between 0 and 1. [30]pointed out that the failure rate
increase factor πœƒ is not a fixed constant but usually
falls within an interval.
In this particular case, it is assumed that the
improvement factor π‘ž 0 ≀ π‘ž ≀ 1 and the failure
rate increase factor πœƒ 𝑒 β‰₯ πœƒ β‰₯ 1 follow uniform
distribution. Therefore, the corresponding cdfs are
expressed by
𝐹 π‘ž = π‘ž, 0 ≀ π‘ž ≀ 1
(10)
and 𝐹 πœƒ =
πœƒβˆ’1
π‘’βˆ’1
, 1 ≀ πœƒ ≀ 𝑒
(11)
respectively, where u is a constant and the upper limit
of the failure rate increase factor.
2.2 Derivation of preventive maintenance
intervals
Integrating equation (8) with respect to x in the
interval [0, Ti], we get the number of failures Fi for
theithPM interval
𝐹𝑖 = β„Žπ‘–
𝑇 𝑖
0
π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯
= πœ†π›½πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1
π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1
π›½βˆ’1
𝑇 𝑖
0
𝑑π‘₯ = πœ†π‘‡1
𝛽
, 𝑖 = 1
πœ†π›½ πœƒπ‘‘πΉ πœƒ
𝑒
1
π‘–βˆ’1
π‘₯
1
0
𝑇 𝑖
0
+ π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1
π›½βˆ’1
𝑑𝐹 π‘ž 𝑑π‘₯ =
= πœ†
𝑒 + 1
2
π‘–βˆ’1
𝑇𝑖 + π‘‘π‘–βˆ’1
𝛽+1
βˆ’ π‘‘π‘–βˆ’1
𝛽+1
βˆ’ 𝑇𝑖
𝛽+1
𝛽 + 1 π‘‘π‘–βˆ’1
,
0 ≀ π‘₯ ≀ 𝑇𝑖, 𝑖 = 2,3, … , 𝑁 (12)
Assuming that an imperfect preventive maintenance
is carried out once the system’s reliability falls to the
predetermined minimum value R. From equation (9),
the system’s reliability is expressed as
𝑒π‘₯𝑝 βˆ’ πœ†π›½πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1
π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1
π›½βˆ’1𝑇 𝑖
0
𝑑π‘₯ = 𝑅, 𝑖 =
1,2, … , 𝑁 (13)
Taking natural logarithm of both sides of equation
(13) leads to
πœ†π›½πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1𝑇 𝑖
0
π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1
π›½βˆ’1
𝑑π‘₯ = βˆ’π‘™π‘›π‘…, 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑁
(14)
Therefore, using equations (12) and (14), we get
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ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 12, (Part - 2) December 2015, pp.49-56
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πœ†π‘‡1
𝛽
= βˆ’π‘™π‘›π‘…, 𝑖 = 1
πœ†
𝛽+1
𝑒+1
2
π‘–βˆ’1 𝑇𝑖
𝛽+1
+𝑑 π‘–βˆ’1
𝛽+1
βˆ’ 𝑇 𝑖+𝑑 π‘–βˆ’1
𝛽 +1
𝑑 π‘–βˆ’1
= 𝑙𝑛𝑅, 𝑖 = 2,3, … , 𝑁
(15)
The sequence time intervals𝑇𝑖, 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑁 can be
determined iteratively using equation (15) as follows
𝑇1 = βˆ’π‘™π‘›
𝑅
πœ†
1
𝛽
, 𝑖 = 1
𝑇𝑖
π‘˜+1
=
𝑇𝑖
π‘˜
+ π‘‘π‘–βˆ’1
𝛽+1
βˆ’
π‘‘π‘–βˆ’1
𝛽+1
+
𝛽+1 𝑙𝑛𝑅
πœ†
2
𝑒+1
π‘–βˆ’1
π‘‘π‘–βˆ’1
1
𝛽+1
𝑖 = 2,3, … , 𝑁
(16)
where 𝑇𝑖
π‘˜+1
π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘ 𝑇𝑖
π‘˜
are (k+1)th and kth iteration
results respectively
1.2 Optimal values of N and C(N)
According to [5],the long run average cost rate C(N)
with N cycles is
𝐢 𝑁 =
𝐢 π‘š 𝐹𝑖+ π‘βˆ’1 𝐢 𝑝 +𝐢 π‘Ÿ
𝑁
𝑖=1
𝑇 𝑖
𝑁
𝑖=1
=
𝐢 π‘š β„Ž 𝑖 π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯ + π‘βˆ’1 𝐢 𝑝 +𝐢 π‘Ÿ
𝑇 𝑖
0
𝑁
𝑖=1
𝑇 𝑖
𝑁
𝑖=1
(17)
where𝐢 π‘š , 𝐢𝑝 π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘ πΆπ‘Ÿ are the costs for minimal repair,
PM and system replacement respectively
Substituting 𝐹𝑖 from equation (12) into equation (17)
yields
𝐢 𝑁 =
𝐢 π‘Ÿ βˆ’πΆ π‘š 𝑙𝑛𝑅
βˆ’π‘™π‘› 𝑅
πœ†
1
𝛽
, 𝑖 = 1
𝐢 π‘š πœ†
𝛽+1
𝑒+1
2
π‘–βˆ’1 𝑇 𝑖+𝑑 π‘–βˆ’1
𝛽 +1βˆ’π‘‘ π‘–βˆ’1
𝛽+1
βˆ’π‘‡π‘–
𝛽+1
𝑑 π‘–βˆ’1
βˆ’πΆ π‘š 𝑙𝑛𝑅 + π‘βˆ’1 𝐢 𝑝 +𝐢 π‘Ÿ
βˆ’
𝑙𝑛𝑅
πœ†
1
𝛽
+ 𝑇 𝑖
𝑁
𝑖=2
𝑁
𝑖=2
𝑖 = 2,3, … , 𝑁
,
(18)
From equation (18), C(N) is a function of only N ,
therefore the optimal values N* of N and C(N*) of
C(N) can be found by substituting N* into equation
(18)
The optimal value N* must satisfy the two
inequalities 𝐢 𝑁 + 1 β‰₯ 𝐢 𝑁 and 𝐢 𝑁) <
πΆπ‘βˆ’1 which implies that
𝑇𝑖
𝑁
𝑖=1 β„Ž 𝑁+1
𝑇 π‘βˆ’1
0
π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯ βˆ’
𝑇𝑁+1 β„Žπ‘– π‘₯
𝑇 𝑖
0
𝑁
𝑖=1 𝑑π‘₯
β‰₯
𝑇 𝑁+1 𝐢 π‘Ÿβˆ’ 𝑇 π‘–βˆ’ π‘βˆ’1 𝑇 π‘βˆ’1
𝑁
𝑖=1 𝐢 𝑝
𝐢 π‘š
(19)
and
𝑇 𝑁 𝐢 π‘Ÿ βˆ’ 𝑇 π‘–βˆ’ π‘βˆ’1 𝑇 𝑁+1
π‘βˆ’1
𝑖=1 𝐢 𝑝
𝐢 π‘š
< 𝑇𝑖
π‘βˆ’1
𝑖=1 β„Ž 𝑁
𝑇 𝑁
0
π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯ βˆ’
𝑇𝑁 β„Žπ‘–
𝑇 𝑖
0
π‘βˆ’1
𝑖=1 π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯ (20)
Let
𝐿 𝑁 = 𝑇𝑖
𝑁
𝑖=1 β„Ž 𝑁+1
𝑇 𝑁+1
0
π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯ βˆ’
𝑇𝑁+1 β„Žπ‘–
𝑇 𝑖
0
𝑁
𝑖=1 π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯
and𝐡 𝑖 = β„Žπ‘–
𝑇 𝑖
0
π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯
then, subtracting the right-hand side of inequality
(20) from the left-hand side of inequality (19), we get
𝐿 𝑁 βˆ’ 𝐿(𝑁 βˆ’ 1 = 𝑇𝑖
𝑁
𝑖=1
𝐡 𝑁 + 1 βˆ’ 𝑇𝑁+1
𝐡 𝑖
𝑁
𝑖=1
βˆ’ 𝑇𝑖
π‘βˆ’1
𝑖=1
𝐡 𝑁 + 𝑇𝑁 𝐡 𝑖
π‘βˆ’1
𝑖=1
= 𝐡 𝑁 + 1 βˆ’ 𝐡 𝑁 𝑇𝑖 + 𝑇𝑁 βˆ’ 𝑇𝑁+1
π‘βˆ’1
𝑖=1
𝐡 𝑖 + 𝑇𝑁 𝐡 𝑁 + 1 βˆ’ 𝑇𝑁+1 𝐡 𝑁
π‘βˆ’1
𝑖=1
(21)
From equation (14),
𝑇𝑖 = π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1
𝛽
βˆ’
𝑙𝑛𝑅
πœ†πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1
1
𝛽
βˆ’ π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1, 𝑖 = 2,3, … , 𝑁
(22)
Since limπ‘–β†’βˆž πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1
= ∞ πœƒ > 1 thus limπ‘–β†’βˆž 𝑇𝑖 = 0 .
This implies that 𝑇𝑖 is a strictly decreasing function of
𝑁 and 𝑇𝑖 > 𝑇𝑖+1 . Conversely, from equation (14),
𝐡 𝑁 + 1 βˆ’ 𝐡 𝑁 = 0. Consequently, the last term
of equation (21)
𝑇𝑁 𝐡 𝑁 + 1 βˆ’ 𝑇𝑁+1 𝐡 𝑁 >
𝑇𝑁+1 𝐡 𝑁 + 1 βˆ’ 𝑇𝑁+1 𝐡 𝑁 =
= 𝑇𝑁+1 𝐡 𝑁 + 1 βˆ’ 𝐡 𝑁 = 0
Therefore, 𝐿 𝑁 βˆ’ 𝐿 𝑁 βˆ’ 1 > 0. This implies that
𝐿 𝑁 is strictly increasing in N and tends to ∞ as
Nβ†’ ∞. Therefore, based on [4], when the hazard
rate β„Ž 𝑑 is a continuous and strictly increasing
function, then there exists a finite and unique N*
which satisfies the inequalities (21) and (22).
III. Numerical Example
This section presents a numerical example to
illustrate the proposed maintenance model.
A piece of manufacturing equipment is observed
to deteriorate with increased usage and age,
undergoes minimal repair upon failures between two
adjacent PM actions and follows the Weibull failure
process. The maximum likelihood estimates of Ξ² and
Ξ» are [34]
𝛽 =
𝑛
𝑙𝑛
𝑋 𝑛
𝑋 𝑗
𝑛
𝑗=1
, πœ† =
𝑛
𝑋 𝑛
𝛽 (23)
Using historical maintenance dataof the equipment
under consideration, the input parameters are given
as follows: Ξ² = 1.4753,Ξ» = 0.00003, R = 0.7, u = 1.1,
Cp = 15000, Cm= 30000, Cr = 900 000.
Table 1 gives the preventive maintenance time
intervals and it is observed that the PM time intervals
gradually decrease along with the increase in
Mwaba Coster Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com
ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 12, (Part - 2) December 2015, pp.49-56
www.ijera.com 53|P a g e
maintenance actions. This implies that the system is
subject to degradation with usage and age.
Table 1 PM time intervals
i Ti ti
1 578.43 578.43
2 411.04 989.47
3 342.53 1332.00
4 297.86 1629.86
5 268.34 1898.20
6 220.28 2139.95
7 202.15 2360.23
8 186.51 2562.38
9 172.78 2748.89
10 160.61 2921.67
11 149.69 3082.28
12 139.84 3231.97
13 130.89 3371.81
14 122.71 3502.70
15 115.21 3525.41
16 108.30 3740.62
17 101.92 3848.92
18 96.00 3950.84
19 90.50 4046.84
20 85.39 4137.84
21 80.62 4222.73
22 76.34 4303.35
23 72.02 4379.69
Figure 1 shows the failure rate of the imperfect
sequential preventive maintenance policy. It can be
observed that the equipment failure rate decrease
after PM actions between the initial and 7th
cycles but
increases thereafter. This is due to the fact that,
equipment is likely to suffer failures during the early
stages of exploitation (infant mortality) due to
manufacturing errors. The corrective maintenance
actions are basically meant to correct such errors. The
imperfect PM that follows thereafter reduces the
equipment’s effective age to a certain value rather
than to zero. Since the failure rate is a function of the
effective age and equipment usage, the initial failure
rate value right after the PM action is not equivalent
to zero. Imperfect PM changes the slope of the failure
rate function and makes it more and more high due to
deterioration process. When the failure rate increases
and its function exceeds the ratio of the failure rate
value just before PM to the equipment’s effective age
right after PM, then the failure rate right after each
PM is increasing rather than decreasing at the
corresponding PM time. Therefore, PM reduces the
failure rate at first and then increases it.
Fig. 1 Failure rate of PM
IV. Sensitivity Analysis and Discussion
From equation (18) it is evident that the long-run
average cost rate is affected by the five cost
parameters Cm,Cp, Cr, R and u when Ξ² and Ξ» are
known. For analytical purposes, cost ratios
Cm/Cp ,Cr/Cp are used. To show how the optimal
maintenance policy depend on the different cost
parameters, only one cost parameter is changed at a
time while others remain constant. The optimal
results are shown in Tables 2 to 5 respectively. The
initial input parameters are highlighted in the tables.
4.1 Effect of u
Table 2 and Fig.2 show the optimal maintenance
number N* and its corresponding long-run cost
C(N*). The optimal maintenance number
N*decreases as uand the long run cost C(N*)
increases. Therefore,during equipment wear period it
is necessary to reduce maintenance actions before
replacement or overhaul.
Table2 Optimum N*,𝑇𝑁
βˆ—
and C(N*) for differentu
U=1.1 U=1.2 U=1.3
N* TN
*
C(N*) N* TN
*
C(N*) N* TN
*
C(N*)
20 90.5 297.06 15 122.71 318.46 13 139.84 338.32
Fig.2 Long-run cost and PM intervals and number of
PM actions with different u
Mwaba Coster Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com
ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 12, (Part - 2) December 2015, pp.49-56
www.ijera.com 54|P a g e
4.2 Effect of R
Table 3 and Fig.3 shows that the optimal
maintenance number N* decrease and the
corresponding long-run cost C(N*) increase with an
increase of R. With higher reliability, the long-run
cost of frequent maintenance is higher whereas the
length of time interval between PM actions becomes
shorter and shorter. This implies that, it is worthwhile
and necessary to increase the number of maintenance
actions for equipment with a higher reliability
requirement.
Table3. Optimum N*, 𝑇𝑁
βˆ—
, and C(N*) for different R
R=0.6 R=0.7 R=0.8
N* TN* C(N*) N* TN* C(N*) N* TN* C(N*)
18 128.8 248.7 20 90.5 297.1 22 58.13 385.3
Fig.3 Long-run cost and PM intervals and number of
PM actions with different R
4.3 Effect of Cm/Cp
Table 4 Optimum N* and C(N*) for different Cm/Cp
Cm/Cp 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.02.5 3.0 5.0 10.0
N* 25 23 21 20 19 18 15 11
C(N*) 259.5 273.1 285.4 297.1 308.4 319.3 360.2
448.6
From Table 4, as the cost ratio Cm/Cp increases, the
optimal maintenance number N* decreases while the
corresponding long-run cost C(N*) increases which
implies that, the higher the cost ratio Cm/Cp, the less
the cost-effectiveness PM work is.
4.4 Effect of Cr/Cp
Table 5 gives the results of the optimum N* and
C(N*) for different Cr/Cp. It is observed that both the
optimal maintenance number N* and the
corresponding long-run cost C(N*) increase as the
cost ratio Cr/Cp increase.
Generally, the more expensive the equipment is, the
more maintenance actions are required and the higher
is the cost.
Table 5 Optimum N* and C(N*) for different Cr/Cp
Cr/Cp 10 20 40 60 80 100
N*
5 10 16 20 24 26
C(N*
) 106.42 155.03 230.97 297.06 358.68 417.52
V. Conclusions
A sequential imperfect maintenance policy for
deteriorating system with variable maintenance
quality considering reliability limit is presented. In
practice, it is usually difficult to determine the quality
of maintenance actions as each sequential
maintenance action has a different maintenance
quality due to the prevailing operating conditions and
available resources. The optimal maintenance policy
is optimized by assuming that the failure rate increase
factor and the restoration factor are both random
variables with uniform probability distribution and
that, the equipment under consideration obeys
weibull process. The sensitivity analysis shows that
in order to achieve optimal practical requirements of
high reliability, it is necessary to consider either
system’s reliability limit or failure rate.
VI. Acknowledgements
This work is supported by the Funds for
International Cooperation and Exchange of the
National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant
No.51561125002 οΌ‰ , National Natural Science
Foundation of China (grant no.51035001); and the
National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant
no.51275190)
References
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Porous Ceramics seminar and technical writing
Porous Ceramics seminar and technical writingPorous Ceramics seminar and technical writing
Porous Ceramics seminar and technical writing
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An Imperfect Preventive Maintenance Policy Considering Reliability Limit

  • 1. Mwaba Coster Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 12, (Part - 2) December 2015, pp.49-56 www.ijera.com 49|P a g e An Imperfect Preventive Maintenance Policy Considering Reliability Limit Mwaba Coster*, Qiong Liu** State Key Laboratory of Digital Manufacturing Equipment and Technology School of Mechanical Science and Engineering Huazhong University of Science and Technology Wuhan 430074, PR China Abstract This paper discusses an imperfect preventive maintenance model for a deteriorating repairable system with consideration of the reliability limitand random maintenance quality. The model is derived from the combination of failure rate adjustment and age over an infinite time horizon. The maintenance intervals are obtained assuming both the failure rate increase factor and age restoration factor are random variables with a uniform distribution. The optimal policy with a sensitivity analysis showing how different cost parameters affect the long run average maintenance cost rate is presented. Keywords: Imperfect preventive maintenance, virtual age, failure rate, reliability limit, I. Introduction The maintenance of deteriorating systems is often imperfect. Previous studies have shown that the imperfect preventive maintenance (PM) can reduce the wear rate and aging effects of deteriorating systems to a certain level between the conditions of β€˜as good as new’ (AGAN) and β€˜as bad as old’ (ABAO),and partially restore the performance and reliability of the system so as to extend its life and reduce the frequency of failures[1]. This is achieved by the two commonly used policies, periodic and sequential preventive maintenance actions. In order to satisfy the requirements of high reliability and low maintenance cost for aging equipment during the wear period, a suitable sequential PM policy is necessary. Maintenance optimization of repairable systems was initiated by [2]. Since then, a number of maintenance models for repairable systems have appeared in literature.[3]proposed the improvement factor method to measure the restoration effect of PM for the deteriorating systems, two maintenance policies, i.e., single and multi-component systems. And [4] proposed sequential imperfect PM model and two sequential PM models called hazard rate adjustment and age models were proposed by [5]. [6]and[7] introduced adjustment factors in hazard rate and effective age after imperfect PM models respectively. [8] extended model [2]into two maintenance policies, i.e., single and multi- component systems and observed that, the effect of maintenance actions can be modeled using system virtual age or failure rate functions.[9,10] introduced the concept of virtual age to model the effect of imperfect repair. [11] studied the modelling of the hazard rate restoration after performing a PM activity. These models are to determine the optimal time interval between PMs and the number of PMs before replacing the system by minimizing the expected average cost over a finite or infinite time span.[12] generalized the virtual age model to a virtual age process for imperfect repair of repairable systems and [13] extended the age reduction idea to model periodic imperfect PM. [14,15] introduced two hybrid sequential PM models incorporating failure rate adjustment and age reduction factors. The two models assumed that PM actions not only reduce the effective age to a certain value but also increase the slope of failure rate function as equipment ages. Based on the reduction of failure intensity and virtual age,[16] proposed two classes of imperfect repair models based on the reduction of failure intensity and virtual age, which is arithmetic reduction of intensity (ARI) model and arithmetic reduction of age (ARA) model, respectively. [17] proposed a general PM model that incorporates three types of PM, i.e., imperfect preventive maintenance(IPM), perfect preventive maintenance (PPM) and failed preventive maintenance (FPM), and obtained an optimal PM schedule maximizing the availability of a repairable system.[18]considered sequential PM model for a finite time span. They considered three models: minimal repair, block replacement and simple replacement.[19] built on [20] model where each PM application reduces the effective age. They considered age reduction model where parts of the system are non-maintainable. [21] introduced phasic sequential PM that considers improvement factor for machine age.[22]considered stochastic maintenance policy for a system degradation over a finite life time. They usedgenetic algorithm (GA) to solve their model. The maintenance improvement was considered stochastic. [23] considered two types of failures, catastrophic and RESEARCH ARTICLE OPEN ACCESS
  • 2. Mwaba Coster Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 12, (Part - 2) December 2015, pp.49-56 www.ijera.com 50|P a g e minor, and considered the improvement in hazard rate function.[24]did a comparative analysis of construction equipment failures using the classical power law models and the new time series models; the researcher found out that the power law models are easy to apply and are capable of predicting reliability metrics at both the system and subsystem levels with fair results, while time series models based on predictive data mining algorithms are more flexible, comprehensive, and accurate by taking various influencing factors into account.Although the primary criterion for judging preventive maintenance is increasing in availability, most of the existing optimal sequential PM policies are developed by minimizing the expected cost rate only without accounting for reliability limit. This makes the system to have a very low reliability at the time of preventive replacement or overhaul,[25],[26],[27]because in practicehigh reliability is usually required to avoid high probability of system unexpected failures[28], [29]. [30]observed that, each PM action in sequential PM model has a different quality, which requires a large number of failure data to estimate it. However, in real circumstances, it is usually difficult to specifythe quality of a PM action precisely as it depends on the available resources, i.e., material, technological, human, time, etc. Some researcher seven assumed that the quality of PM as a fixed constant, which is usually not true in many situations. In this case, it is suitable to assume that restoration factor of PM or failure rate increase factor is a random variable with a probability distribution[30]. This article analyses a hybrid model of sequential imperfect PM by minimizing the long-run average cost rate considering reliability limit for deteriorating repairable systems with random maintenance quality. The proposed model regards the failure rate increase factor and the restoration factor as random variables with a uniform probability distribution. An example is also presented with a discussion of parameters that affect maintenance quality. II. Model Description and Assumptions a. The repairable system deteriorates with usage and age. The planning horizon is infinite and the times for preventive maintenance, minimal repair and replacement is negligible. b. The system failure rate without PM is continuous and strictly increasing. The failure rate after the π‘–π‘‘β„Ž PM is β„Žπ‘– π‘₯ = πœƒβ„Žπ‘–βˆ’1 π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 , 0 ≀ π‘₯ < 𝑇𝑖 c. The system undergoes minimal repair upon failures between two adjacent PM actions and the repairs do not change the failure rate or the system effective age. d. The imperfect PM is performed at a sequence 𝑑1, 𝑑2, … , π‘‡π‘βˆ’1, and the system is replaced at 𝑇𝑁 to β€˜as good as new’ 𝐴𝐺𝐴𝑁 state. e. The failure rate increase factor and restoration factor are all random variables and follow uniform distribution. Notation f(.) probability density function (pdf) F(.) cumulative distribution function (cdf) Fi number of failures for the ith PM interval h(.) system failure rate n number of failures for an observed repairable system N number of PM actions before system replacement N* optimal value of N q restoration factor immediately after the π‘–π‘‘β„Ž PM, 0 ≀ π‘ž ≀ 1 R predetermined reliability R(.) reliability function ti time for the ith PM, 𝑑1 + 𝑑2+, … , 𝑇𝑁 (𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑁) Ti time interval between (i-1)th and ith PM actions 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑁 u failure rate increase factor upper limit ΞΈ failure rate increase factor immediately after the π‘–π‘‘β„Ž PM, 𝑒 β‰₯ πœƒ β‰₯ 1 vi system virtual age after ithPM 𝑖 = 1,2,…,𝑁 Ξ² Weibull shape parameter (Ξ² > 1) Ξ» Weibull scale parameter (Ξ» > 0) cm, cp, cr minimal repair, PM and system replacement cost respectively. C(N), C(N*)long run average cost rate with N and N* cycles respectively. 2.1 The failure rate and reliability function of the model Consider a repairable system which is put into operation at time t = 0 and is minimally repaired between two adjacent preventive maintenance (PM) actions upon failure. Based on Kijima type virtual age idea, the virtual age πœ—π‘– of the equipment after the ith PM can be given by [9]. πœ—π‘– = πœ—π‘–βˆ’1 + π‘žπ‘‡π‘– = π‘žπ‘‘π‘– 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑁 (1) When π‘ž = 0 , it implies the equipment has been restored to β€˜as good as new’ (AGAN) state, i.e., perfect maintenance has been performed; while π‘ž = 1 means the maintenance action has no effect on the condition of the equipment and it remains β€˜as bad as old’(ABAO),i.e., minimal repair or imperfect maintenance has been performed. According to[9], if the equipment’s virtual age πœ—π‘–βˆ’1 after the (i-1)th PM, then the time interval x between the (i-1)th and ith PM has the following conditional cumulative distribution function (cdf)
  • 3. Mwaba Coster Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 12, (Part - 2) December 2015, pp.49-56 www.ijera.com 51|P a g e 𝐹 π‘₯|πœ—π‘–βˆ’1 = 𝐹 π‘₯+πœ— π‘–βˆ’1 βˆ’πΉ πœ— π‘–βˆ’1 1βˆ’πΉ πœ— π‘–βˆ’1 = 1 βˆ’ 𝑅 π‘₯+πœ— π‘–βˆ’1 𝑅 πœ— π‘–βˆ’1 , 0 ≀ π‘₯ ≀ 𝑇𝑖 (2) where𝐹 βˆ™ and R βˆ™ are cdf and reliability functions respectively. The reliability function of the Weibull process for the interval x can be expressed as [31-33] 𝑅 π‘₯ = 𝑒π‘₯𝑝 βˆ’πœ†π‘₯ 𝛽 , 0 ≀ π‘₯ ≀ 𝑇𝑖 (3) where Ξ» πœ† > 0 and Ξ² 𝛽 > 1 are the scale and shape parameters of the Weibull process respectively. Adopting the Weibull process, being the widely used in Kijima type virtual age model for repairable systems due to its flexibility, to describe the imperfect maintenance based on equations (1) to (3).The conditional reliability of the equipment within the time interval can be derived as follows 𝑅 π‘₯|πœ—π‘–βˆ’1 = 𝑅 π‘₯+πœ— π‘–βˆ’1 𝑅 πœ— π‘–βˆ’1 = 𝑒π‘₯𝑝 βˆ’πœ† π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1π›½βˆ’ π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1𝛽0≀ π‘₯≀ 𝑇𝑖 (4) Taking the negative derivative with respect to x in equation (4), we get the corresponding probability density function (pdf) 𝑓 π‘₯|πœ—π‘–βˆ’1 = βˆ’π‘‘π‘… π‘₯|πœ— π‘–βˆ’1 𝑑π‘₯ = πœ†π›½ π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1π›½βˆ’1expβˆ’ πœ†π‘₯+π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1π›½βˆ’ π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1𝛽 0 ≀ π‘₯ ≀ 𝑇𝑖 (5) Thus, the conditional failure rate can be obtained by β„Ž π‘₯|πœ—π‘–βˆ’1 = 𝑓 π‘₯|πœ— π‘–βˆ’1 𝑅 π‘₯|πœ— π‘–βˆ’1 = πœ†π›½ π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 π›½βˆ’1 , 0 ≀ π‘₯ ≀ 𝑇𝑖 (6) The failure rate of deteriorating repairable systems normally increases with usage and age especially during the wear period. Therefore, the system would need more frequent maintenance actions as the failure rate of the ith PM interval increases more quickly than that of the (i-1)th PM interval. For the proposed hybrid model, the failure rate increase factor πœƒ is added to the Kijima type virtual age model to determine the maintenance policy. Assuming that the failure rate of a deteriorating repairable system after the ithPM is: β„Žπ‘– π‘₯ = πœƒβ„Žπ‘– π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 , then β„Žπ‘– π‘₯ = πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1 β„Ž π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 , π‘€β„Žπ‘’π‘Ÿπ‘’ πœƒ(πœƒ β‰₯ 1) is the failure rate increase factor and is a random variable, and β„Ž π‘₯ is the equipment failure rate when there are no PM actions. Therefore, from equations (4) and (6), the combined reliability and failure rate function of the proposed model within the time interval Ti will be 𝑅𝑖 π‘₯ = 𝑒π‘₯𝑝 βˆ’πœ†πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1 π‘₯+π‘žπ‘‘ π‘–βˆ’1 𝛽 βˆ’ π‘žπ‘‘ π‘–βˆ’1 𝛽 , 0 ≀ π‘₯ ≀ 𝑇𝑖 (7) and β„Žπ‘– π‘₯ = πœ†π›½πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1 π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 π›½βˆ’1 0 ≀ π‘₯ ≀ 𝑇𝑖 (8) respectively. If the failure rate is used to express the reliability function, then reliability function is expressed as 𝑅𝑖 π‘₯ = 𝑒π‘₯𝑝 βˆ’ β„Žπ‘– π‘₯ 0 π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯ = 𝑒π‘₯𝑝 βˆ’ πœ†π›½πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1π‘₯ 0 π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 π›½βˆ’1 𝑑π‘₯ 0 ≀ π‘₯ ≀ 𝑇𝑖 (9) In practice, the degree of each preventive maintenance action depend on the available resources, i.e., material, technological, human, time etc. [10] extended the improvement factor q and observed that it is a random variable with a value between 0 and 1. [30]pointed out that the failure rate increase factor πœƒ is not a fixed constant but usually falls within an interval. In this particular case, it is assumed that the improvement factor π‘ž 0 ≀ π‘ž ≀ 1 and the failure rate increase factor πœƒ 𝑒 β‰₯ πœƒ β‰₯ 1 follow uniform distribution. Therefore, the corresponding cdfs are expressed by 𝐹 π‘ž = π‘ž, 0 ≀ π‘ž ≀ 1 (10) and 𝐹 πœƒ = πœƒβˆ’1 π‘’βˆ’1 , 1 ≀ πœƒ ≀ 𝑒 (11) respectively, where u is a constant and the upper limit of the failure rate increase factor. 2.2 Derivation of preventive maintenance intervals Integrating equation (8) with respect to x in the interval [0, Ti], we get the number of failures Fi for theithPM interval 𝐹𝑖 = β„Žπ‘– 𝑇 𝑖 0 π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯ = πœ†π›½πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1 π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 π›½βˆ’1 𝑇 𝑖 0 𝑑π‘₯ = πœ†π‘‡1 𝛽 , 𝑖 = 1 πœ†π›½ πœƒπ‘‘πΉ πœƒ 𝑒 1 π‘–βˆ’1 π‘₯ 1 0 𝑇 𝑖 0 + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 π›½βˆ’1 𝑑𝐹 π‘ž 𝑑π‘₯ = = πœ† 𝑒 + 1 2 π‘–βˆ’1 𝑇𝑖 + π‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 𝛽+1 βˆ’ π‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 𝛽+1 βˆ’ 𝑇𝑖 𝛽+1 𝛽 + 1 π‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 , 0 ≀ π‘₯ ≀ 𝑇𝑖, 𝑖 = 2,3, … , 𝑁 (12) Assuming that an imperfect preventive maintenance is carried out once the system’s reliability falls to the predetermined minimum value R. From equation (9), the system’s reliability is expressed as 𝑒π‘₯𝑝 βˆ’ πœ†π›½πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1 π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 π›½βˆ’1𝑇 𝑖 0 𝑑π‘₯ = 𝑅, 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑁 (13) Taking natural logarithm of both sides of equation (13) leads to πœ†π›½πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1𝑇 𝑖 0 π‘₯ + π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 π›½βˆ’1 𝑑π‘₯ = βˆ’π‘™π‘›π‘…, 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑁 (14) Therefore, using equations (12) and (14), we get
  • 4. Mwaba Coster Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 12, (Part - 2) December 2015, pp.49-56 www.ijera.com 52|P a g e πœ†π‘‡1 𝛽 = βˆ’π‘™π‘›π‘…, 𝑖 = 1 πœ† 𝛽+1 𝑒+1 2 π‘–βˆ’1 𝑇𝑖 𝛽+1 +𝑑 π‘–βˆ’1 𝛽+1 βˆ’ 𝑇 𝑖+𝑑 π‘–βˆ’1 𝛽 +1 𝑑 π‘–βˆ’1 = 𝑙𝑛𝑅, 𝑖 = 2,3, … , 𝑁 (15) The sequence time intervals𝑇𝑖, 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑁 can be determined iteratively using equation (15) as follows 𝑇1 = βˆ’π‘™π‘› 𝑅 πœ† 1 𝛽 , 𝑖 = 1 𝑇𝑖 π‘˜+1 = 𝑇𝑖 π‘˜ + π‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 𝛽+1 βˆ’ π‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 𝛽+1 + 𝛽+1 𝑙𝑛𝑅 πœ† 2 𝑒+1 π‘–βˆ’1 π‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 1 𝛽+1 𝑖 = 2,3, … , 𝑁 (16) where 𝑇𝑖 π‘˜+1 π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘ 𝑇𝑖 π‘˜ are (k+1)th and kth iteration results respectively 1.2 Optimal values of N and C(N) According to [5],the long run average cost rate C(N) with N cycles is 𝐢 𝑁 = 𝐢 π‘š 𝐹𝑖+ π‘βˆ’1 𝐢 𝑝 +𝐢 π‘Ÿ 𝑁 𝑖=1 𝑇 𝑖 𝑁 𝑖=1 = 𝐢 π‘š β„Ž 𝑖 π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯ + π‘βˆ’1 𝐢 𝑝 +𝐢 π‘Ÿ 𝑇 𝑖 0 𝑁 𝑖=1 𝑇 𝑖 𝑁 𝑖=1 (17) where𝐢 π‘š , 𝐢𝑝 π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘ πΆπ‘Ÿ are the costs for minimal repair, PM and system replacement respectively Substituting 𝐹𝑖 from equation (12) into equation (17) yields 𝐢 𝑁 = 𝐢 π‘Ÿ βˆ’πΆ π‘š 𝑙𝑛𝑅 βˆ’π‘™π‘› 𝑅 πœ† 1 𝛽 , 𝑖 = 1 𝐢 π‘š πœ† 𝛽+1 𝑒+1 2 π‘–βˆ’1 𝑇 𝑖+𝑑 π‘–βˆ’1 𝛽 +1βˆ’π‘‘ π‘–βˆ’1 𝛽+1 βˆ’π‘‡π‘– 𝛽+1 𝑑 π‘–βˆ’1 βˆ’πΆ π‘š 𝑙𝑛𝑅 + π‘βˆ’1 𝐢 𝑝 +𝐢 π‘Ÿ βˆ’ 𝑙𝑛𝑅 πœ† 1 𝛽 + 𝑇 𝑖 𝑁 𝑖=2 𝑁 𝑖=2 𝑖 = 2,3, … , 𝑁 , (18) From equation (18), C(N) is a function of only N , therefore the optimal values N* of N and C(N*) of C(N) can be found by substituting N* into equation (18) The optimal value N* must satisfy the two inequalities 𝐢 𝑁 + 1 β‰₯ 𝐢 𝑁 and 𝐢 𝑁) < πΆπ‘βˆ’1 which implies that 𝑇𝑖 𝑁 𝑖=1 β„Ž 𝑁+1 𝑇 π‘βˆ’1 0 π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯ βˆ’ 𝑇𝑁+1 β„Žπ‘– π‘₯ 𝑇 𝑖 0 𝑁 𝑖=1 𝑑π‘₯ β‰₯ 𝑇 𝑁+1 𝐢 π‘Ÿβˆ’ 𝑇 π‘–βˆ’ π‘βˆ’1 𝑇 π‘βˆ’1 𝑁 𝑖=1 𝐢 𝑝 𝐢 π‘š (19) and 𝑇 𝑁 𝐢 π‘Ÿ βˆ’ 𝑇 π‘–βˆ’ π‘βˆ’1 𝑇 𝑁+1 π‘βˆ’1 𝑖=1 𝐢 𝑝 𝐢 π‘š < 𝑇𝑖 π‘βˆ’1 𝑖=1 β„Ž 𝑁 𝑇 𝑁 0 π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯ βˆ’ 𝑇𝑁 β„Žπ‘– 𝑇 𝑖 0 π‘βˆ’1 𝑖=1 π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯ (20) Let 𝐿 𝑁 = 𝑇𝑖 𝑁 𝑖=1 β„Ž 𝑁+1 𝑇 𝑁+1 0 π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯ βˆ’ 𝑇𝑁+1 β„Žπ‘– 𝑇 𝑖 0 𝑁 𝑖=1 π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯ and𝐡 𝑖 = β„Žπ‘– 𝑇 𝑖 0 π‘₯ 𝑑π‘₯ then, subtracting the right-hand side of inequality (20) from the left-hand side of inequality (19), we get 𝐿 𝑁 βˆ’ 𝐿(𝑁 βˆ’ 1 = 𝑇𝑖 𝑁 𝑖=1 𝐡 𝑁 + 1 βˆ’ 𝑇𝑁+1 𝐡 𝑖 𝑁 𝑖=1 βˆ’ 𝑇𝑖 π‘βˆ’1 𝑖=1 𝐡 𝑁 + 𝑇𝑁 𝐡 𝑖 π‘βˆ’1 𝑖=1 = 𝐡 𝑁 + 1 βˆ’ 𝐡 𝑁 𝑇𝑖 + 𝑇𝑁 βˆ’ 𝑇𝑁+1 π‘βˆ’1 𝑖=1 𝐡 𝑖 + 𝑇𝑁 𝐡 𝑁 + 1 βˆ’ 𝑇𝑁+1 𝐡 𝑁 π‘βˆ’1 𝑖=1 (21) From equation (14), 𝑇𝑖 = π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1 𝛽 βˆ’ 𝑙𝑛𝑅 πœ†πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1 1 𝛽 βˆ’ π‘žπ‘‘π‘–βˆ’1, 𝑖 = 2,3, … , 𝑁 (22) Since limπ‘–β†’βˆž πœƒ π‘–βˆ’1 = ∞ πœƒ > 1 thus limπ‘–β†’βˆž 𝑇𝑖 = 0 . This implies that 𝑇𝑖 is a strictly decreasing function of 𝑁 and 𝑇𝑖 > 𝑇𝑖+1 . Conversely, from equation (14), 𝐡 𝑁 + 1 βˆ’ 𝐡 𝑁 = 0. Consequently, the last term of equation (21) 𝑇𝑁 𝐡 𝑁 + 1 βˆ’ 𝑇𝑁+1 𝐡 𝑁 > 𝑇𝑁+1 𝐡 𝑁 + 1 βˆ’ 𝑇𝑁+1 𝐡 𝑁 = = 𝑇𝑁+1 𝐡 𝑁 + 1 βˆ’ 𝐡 𝑁 = 0 Therefore, 𝐿 𝑁 βˆ’ 𝐿 𝑁 βˆ’ 1 > 0. This implies that 𝐿 𝑁 is strictly increasing in N and tends to ∞ as Nβ†’ ∞. Therefore, based on [4], when the hazard rate β„Ž 𝑑 is a continuous and strictly increasing function, then there exists a finite and unique N* which satisfies the inequalities (21) and (22). III. Numerical Example This section presents a numerical example to illustrate the proposed maintenance model. A piece of manufacturing equipment is observed to deteriorate with increased usage and age, undergoes minimal repair upon failures between two adjacent PM actions and follows the Weibull failure process. The maximum likelihood estimates of Ξ² and Ξ» are [34] 𝛽 = 𝑛 𝑙𝑛 𝑋 𝑛 𝑋 𝑗 𝑛 𝑗=1 , πœ† = 𝑛 𝑋 𝑛 𝛽 (23) Using historical maintenance dataof the equipment under consideration, the input parameters are given as follows: Ξ² = 1.4753,Ξ» = 0.00003, R = 0.7, u = 1.1, Cp = 15000, Cm= 30000, Cr = 900 000. Table 1 gives the preventive maintenance time intervals and it is observed that the PM time intervals gradually decrease along with the increase in
  • 5. Mwaba Coster Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 12, (Part - 2) December 2015, pp.49-56 www.ijera.com 53|P a g e maintenance actions. This implies that the system is subject to degradation with usage and age. Table 1 PM time intervals i Ti ti 1 578.43 578.43 2 411.04 989.47 3 342.53 1332.00 4 297.86 1629.86 5 268.34 1898.20 6 220.28 2139.95 7 202.15 2360.23 8 186.51 2562.38 9 172.78 2748.89 10 160.61 2921.67 11 149.69 3082.28 12 139.84 3231.97 13 130.89 3371.81 14 122.71 3502.70 15 115.21 3525.41 16 108.30 3740.62 17 101.92 3848.92 18 96.00 3950.84 19 90.50 4046.84 20 85.39 4137.84 21 80.62 4222.73 22 76.34 4303.35 23 72.02 4379.69 Figure 1 shows the failure rate of the imperfect sequential preventive maintenance policy. It can be observed that the equipment failure rate decrease after PM actions between the initial and 7th cycles but increases thereafter. This is due to the fact that, equipment is likely to suffer failures during the early stages of exploitation (infant mortality) due to manufacturing errors. The corrective maintenance actions are basically meant to correct such errors. The imperfect PM that follows thereafter reduces the equipment’s effective age to a certain value rather than to zero. Since the failure rate is a function of the effective age and equipment usage, the initial failure rate value right after the PM action is not equivalent to zero. Imperfect PM changes the slope of the failure rate function and makes it more and more high due to deterioration process. When the failure rate increases and its function exceeds the ratio of the failure rate value just before PM to the equipment’s effective age right after PM, then the failure rate right after each PM is increasing rather than decreasing at the corresponding PM time. Therefore, PM reduces the failure rate at first and then increases it. Fig. 1 Failure rate of PM IV. Sensitivity Analysis and Discussion From equation (18) it is evident that the long-run average cost rate is affected by the five cost parameters Cm,Cp, Cr, R and u when Ξ² and Ξ» are known. For analytical purposes, cost ratios Cm/Cp ,Cr/Cp are used. To show how the optimal maintenance policy depend on the different cost parameters, only one cost parameter is changed at a time while others remain constant. The optimal results are shown in Tables 2 to 5 respectively. The initial input parameters are highlighted in the tables. 4.1 Effect of u Table 2 and Fig.2 show the optimal maintenance number N* and its corresponding long-run cost C(N*). The optimal maintenance number N*decreases as uand the long run cost C(N*) increases. Therefore,during equipment wear period it is necessary to reduce maintenance actions before replacement or overhaul. Table2 Optimum N*,𝑇𝑁 βˆ— and C(N*) for differentu U=1.1 U=1.2 U=1.3 N* TN * C(N*) N* TN * C(N*) N* TN * C(N*) 20 90.5 297.06 15 122.71 318.46 13 139.84 338.32 Fig.2 Long-run cost and PM intervals and number of PM actions with different u
  • 6. Mwaba Coster Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 12, (Part - 2) December 2015, pp.49-56 www.ijera.com 54|P a g e 4.2 Effect of R Table 3 and Fig.3 shows that the optimal maintenance number N* decrease and the corresponding long-run cost C(N*) increase with an increase of R. With higher reliability, the long-run cost of frequent maintenance is higher whereas the length of time interval between PM actions becomes shorter and shorter. This implies that, it is worthwhile and necessary to increase the number of maintenance actions for equipment with a higher reliability requirement. Table3. Optimum N*, 𝑇𝑁 βˆ— , and C(N*) for different R R=0.6 R=0.7 R=0.8 N* TN* C(N*) N* TN* C(N*) N* TN* C(N*) 18 128.8 248.7 20 90.5 297.1 22 58.13 385.3 Fig.3 Long-run cost and PM intervals and number of PM actions with different R 4.3 Effect of Cm/Cp Table 4 Optimum N* and C(N*) for different Cm/Cp Cm/Cp 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.02.5 3.0 5.0 10.0 N* 25 23 21 20 19 18 15 11 C(N*) 259.5 273.1 285.4 297.1 308.4 319.3 360.2 448.6 From Table 4, as the cost ratio Cm/Cp increases, the optimal maintenance number N* decreases while the corresponding long-run cost C(N*) increases which implies that, the higher the cost ratio Cm/Cp, the less the cost-effectiveness PM work is. 4.4 Effect of Cr/Cp Table 5 gives the results of the optimum N* and C(N*) for different Cr/Cp. It is observed that both the optimal maintenance number N* and the corresponding long-run cost C(N*) increase as the cost ratio Cr/Cp increase. Generally, the more expensive the equipment is, the more maintenance actions are required and the higher is the cost. Table 5 Optimum N* and C(N*) for different Cr/Cp Cr/Cp 10 20 40 60 80 100 N* 5 10 16 20 24 26 C(N* ) 106.42 155.03 230.97 297.06 358.68 417.52 V. Conclusions A sequential imperfect maintenance policy for deteriorating system with variable maintenance quality considering reliability limit is presented. In practice, it is usually difficult to determine the quality of maintenance actions as each sequential maintenance action has a different maintenance quality due to the prevailing operating conditions and available resources. The optimal maintenance policy is optimized by assuming that the failure rate increase factor and the restoration factor are both random variables with uniform probability distribution and that, the equipment under consideration obeys weibull process. The sensitivity analysis shows that in order to achieve optimal practical requirements of high reliability, it is necessary to consider either system’s reliability limit or failure rate. VI. Acknowledgements This work is supported by the Funds for International Cooperation and Exchange of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant No.51561125002 οΌ‰ , National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no.51035001); and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no.51275190) References [1.] Pham H and Wang H , Imperfect repair. European Journal ofOperational Research94, 1996,425–438. [2.] Barlow, R. E.; Hunter, L. C.(1960). Optimum preventive maintenance policies, Operations Research 8,1960,90–100. [3.] Malik M A K , Reliable Preventive MaintenanceScheduling,” AIIE Transaction, 9, 1979, 221-228. [4.] Nakagawa T (1986). Periodic and sequential preventivemaintenance policies. Journal of Applied Probability 23,1986,536-542. [5.] Nakagawa T , Sequential imperfect preventivemaintenance policies. IEEE Transactions on Reliability37(3),1988, 295–298. [6.] Nakagawa T (1980). A summary of imperfect preventivemaintenance policies with minimal repair. RAIROOperations Research 14,1980,249–255. [7.] Lie C H and Chun Y H (1986). An algorithm for preventivemaintenance policy. IEEE Transactions on Reliability35(1) , 1986, 71–75. [8.] Nguyen D G and Murthy D N P, Optimal preventivemaintenance policies for repairable systems.Operations. Research 29(6),1981,1181–1194.
  • 7. Mwaba Coster Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com ISSN: 2248-9622, Vol. 5, Issue 12, (Part - 2) December 2015, pp.49-56 www.ijera.com 55|P a g e [9.] Kijima M, Morimura H and Suzuki Y, Periodicalreplacement problem without assuming minimalrepair. European Journal of Operational Research37,1988 , 194– 203. [10.] Kijima, M.(1989). Some results for repairable systems withgeneral repair. Journal of applied Probability26,1989, 89– 102. [11.] Chan, JK and L Shaw, Modelling repairable systems with failure rates that depend on age and maintenance. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 42,1993, 566–570. [12.] Guo R, Ascher H, and Love C E, Generalizedmodels of repairable systems: a survey via stochasticprocesses formalism. Orion. 16(2),2000, 87–128. [13.] Liu X, Makis V, and Jardine A K S (1995). A replacementmodel with overhauls and repairs. Naval ResearchLogistics42: 1063– 1079. [14.] Lin D, Zuo M J, and Yam R C M, Generalsequential imperfect preventive maintenancemodels. International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering 7,2000,253–266. [15.] Lin D, Zuo M. J, and Yam R C M, Sequentialimperfect preventive maintenance models with twocategories of failure modes. Naval Research Logistics 48,2001,172–182. [16.] Doyen L and Gaudoin O, Classes of imperfectrepair models based on reduction of failure intensityor virtual age. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 84,2004, 45– 56. [17.] Sheu, SH, YB Lin and GL Liao , Optimum policies for a system with general imperfect maintenance. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 91,2006, 362–369. [18.] Nakagawa T and Mizutani S, A summary of maintenance policies for a finite interval, Reliability Engineering and System safety,94,2009, 89-96. [19.] Michael Batholomew Biggs, Ming J.Zuo and Xiaohu Li, Modelling and Optimizing Sequential Imperfect Preventive Maintenance, Reliability Engineering and System safety, 94, 2009, 53-62. [20.] Kijima M and Nakagawa T, Replacement policies of a shock model with imperfect preventive maintenance, European journal of Operations Research, 57,1992, 100-110 [21.] QuYuxiang and Wu Su, Phasic Sequential Preventive Maintenance Policy Based on Imperfect Maintenance for deteriorating Systems, Chinese journal of mechanical Engineering, 47(10),2011, 164-170 [22.] Liu Yu, Yanfeng Li, Hong-Zhong Huang and YuanhuiKuang, An optimal sequential preventive maintenance policy under stochastic maintenance quality, Structure and infrastructure Engineering: Maintenance Management, Life-Cycle Design and Performance, 7(4),2011, 315-322. [23.] Shey-HueiSheu, Chin-Chih Chang and Yen- Luan Chen, An Extended Sequential Imperfect maintenance model with Improvement Factors, Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods, 41(7),2012, 1269-1283. [24.] Hongqin Fan, A comparative analysis of construction equipment failures using power law models and time series models. International Symposium on Automation and Robotics in Construction. Eindhoven, Netherlands,2012, June 26-29. [25.] Jayabalan V and Chaudhuri D, Cost optimizationof maintenance scheduling for a system with assuredreliability. IEEE Transactions on Reliability41(1), 1992, 21– 25. [26.] Zhou X J, Xi L F, and Lee J (2007). Reliability-canteredpredictive maintenance scheduling for a continuouslymonitored system subject to degradation.Reliability Engineering and System Safety 92,2007, 530–534. [27.] Liao W Z, Pan E S, and Xi L F, Preventive maintenancescheduling for repairable system with deterioration.Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing 4, 2010. [28.] Tsai Y A, A Study of availability centred preventive maintenance for multi- component systems, Reliability Engineering and system safety, 84 ,2004, 261-270. [29.] Kamran S. Moghaddam& John S. Usher, A new multi-objectiveoptimization model for preventive maintenance and replacement scheduling of multi-componentsystems, Engineering Optimization, 43(7), 2011, 701- 719. [30.] Wu S and Clements-Croome D (2005). Preventive maintenancemodels with random maintenance quality.Reliability Engineering and System Safety90, 2005, 99–105. [31.] Yanez M, Joglar F, and Modarres M, Generalizedrenewal process for analysis of repairable systemswith limited failure experience. Reliability Engineering SystemSafety77,2002, 167–180. [32.] Mettas A and Zhao W, Modelling and analysis ofrepairable systems with general repair. InProceedings of the annual reliability and maintainabilitysymposium, Alexandria, Virginia. 2005, 176–182.
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