Clemens Breisinger
GLOBAL FOOD POLICY REPORT
Kenya Discussion of IFPRI’s 2023 Global Food Policy Report: Rethinking Food Crisis Responses
In collaboration with University of Nairobi and part of the CGIAR Initiative on National Policies and Strategies (NPS) Seminar Series
IFPRI Kenya
MAY 19, 2023 - 7:00 TO 9:00AM EDT
2. Johan Swinnen & Katrina Kosec
International Food Policy Research Institute
The Road to Resilience
Rethinking Responses to Food Crises
3. Vulnerability of food systems :
Compounding crises, shocks, and structural setbacks
Source: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, and WHO, The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the
World 2022, (Rome: FAO, 2022).
13
7.8
8
9.8
796
572 618
768
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Millions
Percentage
Prevalence and number of
undernourished worldwide, 2000–2021
Prevalence of undernourishment (percent)
Number of people undernourished (million)
Price volatility 2000-2022
Source: Heady et al 2021
4. More frequent, complex, and
protracted crises likely
Climate change a looming danger
Up to 21% reduction in agricultural productivity
growth since 1961
Contributor of food crises for >20 million people
in 2021
Compounding crises: conflict, climate
change, and economic shocks
For example: Syria, Afghanistan, and South
Sudan
Climate, Conflict, Covid, and Food Security
0
50
100
150
200
250
1900
1906
1913
1918
1923
1928
1933
1938
1943
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
2018
Trends in extreme weather events,
droughts, and floods, 1900–2022
Extreme weather events Drought Flood
Source: https://emdat.be/
5. Forced migrants
~103 million people forcibly displaced in 2022
80% experienced acute food insecurity
Low- and middle-income countries
especially vulnerable
limited resources for crisis response
Women
Impacts to women’s dietary diversity, decision-
making power, assets, health, and physical safety
Setback of gender equality goals by 30 years
Food crises impact some more heavily than others
103
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Millions
Forcibly Displaced People
Source: UNHCR (2023).
Note: Includes internally displaced people and refugees.
6. Early-warning, early-action (EWEA) systems
Systems must better address complexity of crises
Filling M&E gaps is critical
Integrating existing systems can ensure that policymakers
receive clear, timely, and actionable warning signals
Anticipatory action frameworks
Require monitoring data that illuminate risks, exposure, and
vulnerability
Can mitigate crises at lower cost and support longer-term
development efforts
Robust governance and improved targeting raise efficacy
Policy recommendations (1)
7. Resilient agrifood value chains
Businesses should invest in improved and innovative tools
like climate-smart agriculture and new forms of insurance
Governments should create a business environment that
fosters value chain innovations
Data can be used to target assistance to crucial value
chain nodes
Responsive social protection systems
Governments need highly adaptive, flexible, and inclusive
social protection systems
Integrate “shock responsive” social protection with EWEA
and humanitarian aid for greater coherence
Explore new ways to cover costs (e.g., climate or green
financing) and reduce costs (e.g., using mobile payments)
Policy recommendations (2)
8. Empowering women amid crisis
Improve the quality of gender-disaggregated data collected
before and during crises
Creating explicit gender targets in crisis response and track
them
Increase women’s political participation and amplify their
voice and agency in their communities
Responding to forced migration
Governments should invest in infrastructure and design
policies that expand the benefits of migration
Innovative data collection can be used to better understand
and address the root causes of forced migration
Policy recommendations (3)
9. 2023 GFPR Table of Contents
1.The Road to Resilience: Rethinking Responses to Food Crises
2. Food Crisis Risk Monitoring: Early Warning for Early Action
3. Crisis Resilience: Humanitarian Response and Anticipatory Action
4. Agrifood Value Chains: Building Resilient Food Systems
5. Social Protection: Adaptive Safety Nets for Crisis Recovery
6. Gender: Promoting Equality in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Settings
7. Forced Migration: Fragility, Resilience, and Policy Responses
(+ Six Regional Chapters)
10. 2023 GFPR: A timely contribution
Cutting-edge analysis from IFPRI and partners
about recent crises and their impacts on food
security, nutrition, poverty, and livelihoods
Concrete strategies for crisis response
Takeaways:
Existing research, and additional investments in new
research, can serve decision-makers and support HDP
nexus strategies
Transforming food systems is a logical and powerful entry
point from which to achieve crisis resilience
Editor's Notes
Undernourishment increased by 196 million people since 2015
Compounding crises perpetuate food and nutrition security challenges while making recovery from shocks more difficult
Massive flooding in Pakistan displaced 33 million people
Drought in the Horn of Africa killed 7 million livestock
Climate change one of biggest challenges for food systems
driving displacement in the global south
destruction of homes and infrastructure, and loss of property and income
Increase in climate-related food-borne, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases
Adverse effects on gender and social equity.
Most LMICs are in Southern hemisphere= disproportionately affected by climate shocks and subsequently, conflict. They remain vulnerable, especially post-COVID when they are cash-strapped.
Women suffer greater harm from shocks:
Systemic gender inequality in norms, institutions, and access to resources hinders women’s resilience
Recent events set back gender equality goals by more than 30 years, as measured by changes in the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Index between 2020 and 2022.
EWAEs:
Systems should consider complex crises, including climate-related events and conflict situations
Filling gaps in monitoring and analysis can foster greater understanding of compounding crises
Integrating existing systems can ensure that policymakers receive clear, timely, and actionable warning signals
Example of integrating existing systems: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) classifications at the country level are based on a convergence of evidence, which works from the premise that various unrelated sources and types of data can “converge” toward strong conclusions
Anticipatory action means using early warning or forecasting tools combined with predetermined decision-making protocols to inform early action for timely emergency response at the local, national, and/or international levels (see Chapter 2). Triggers or thresholds are predefined within data and risk monitoring systems.
Businesses should invest in improved and innovative tools like climate-smart agriculture and new forms of insurance
Governments should create a business environment that fosters value chain innovations
Careful monitoring before and during crises can be used to target assistance to crucial value chain nodes
Governments need highly adaptive, flexible, and inclusive social protection systems that budget for potential crises
Integrate “shock responsive” social protection with EWEA and humanitarian aid for greater coherence
Explore new ways to cover costs (e.g., climate or green financing) and reduce costs (e.g., using mobile payments)
Example of resilient agrifood value chains from pandemic response: E-commerce expanded to serve small and medium enterprises (SMEs), including wet-market stall owners; for example, Getir started Getirçarşı, a division delivering only for SME retailers.
Improve the quality of gender-disaggregated data collected before and during crises
Creating explicit gender targets and tracking progress in crisis response is central to promoting gender equality
Increase women’s political participation and amplify their voice and agency in their communities
Governments should invest in infrastructure and design policies that expand the benefits of migration
Innovative data collection can be used to better understand and address the root causes of forced migration
Funding strategies offered by GFPR can also generate wins for climate adaptation and mitigation