1. Overview of Key Findings
Clemens Breisinger

2. Johan Swinnen & Katrina Kosec
International Food Policy Research Institute
The Road to Resilience
Rethinking Responses to Food Crises

3. Vulnerability of food systems :
Compounding crises, shocks, and structural setbacks
Source: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, and WHO, The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the
World 2022, (Rome: FAO, 2022).
13
7.8
8
9.8
796
572 618
768
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Millions
Percentage
Prevalence and number of
undernourished worldwide, 2000–2021
Prevalence of undernourishment (percent)
Number of people undernourished (million)
Price volatility 2000-2022
Source: Heady et al 2021

4.  More frequent, complex, and
protracted crises likely
 Climate change a looming danger
 Up to 21% reduction in agricultural productivity
growth since 1961
 Contributor of food crises for >20 million people
in 2021
 Compounding crises: conflict, climate
change, and economic shocks
 For example: Syria, Afghanistan, and South
Sudan
Climate, Conflict, Covid, and Food Security
0
50
100
150
200
250
1900
1906
1913
1918
1923
1928
1933
1938
1943
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
2018
Trends in extreme weather events,
droughts, and floods, 1900–2022
Extreme weather events Drought Flood
Source: https://emdat.be/

5.  Forced migrants
 ~103 million people forcibly displaced in 2022
 80% experienced acute food insecurity
 Low- and middle-income countries
 especially vulnerable
 limited resources for crisis response
 Women
 Impacts to women’s dietary diversity, decision-
making power, assets, health, and physical safety
 Setback of gender equality goals by 30 years
Food crises impact some more heavily than others
103
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Millions
Forcibly Displaced People
Source: UNHCR (2023).
Note: Includes internally displaced people and refugees.

6.  Early-warning, early-action (EWEA) systems
 Systems must better address complexity of crises
 Filling M&E gaps is critical
 Integrating existing systems can ensure that policymakers
receive clear, timely, and actionable warning signals
 Anticipatory action frameworks
 Require monitoring data that illuminate risks, exposure, and
vulnerability
 Can mitigate crises at lower cost and support longer-term
development efforts
 Robust governance and improved targeting raise efficacy
Policy recommendations (1)

7.  Resilient agrifood value chains
 Businesses should invest in improved and innovative tools
like climate-smart agriculture and new forms of insurance
 Governments should create a business environment that
fosters value chain innovations
 Data can be used to target assistance to crucial value
chain nodes
 Responsive social protection systems
 Governments need highly adaptive, flexible, and inclusive
social protection systems
 Integrate “shock responsive” social protection with EWEA
and humanitarian aid for greater coherence
 Explore new ways to cover costs (e.g., climate or green
financing) and reduce costs (e.g., using mobile payments)
Policy recommendations (2)

8.  Empowering women amid crisis
 Improve the quality of gender-disaggregated data collected
before and during crises
 Creating explicit gender targets in crisis response and track
them
 Increase women’s political participation and amplify their
voice and agency in their communities
 Responding to forced migration
 Governments should invest in infrastructure and design
policies that expand the benefits of migration
 Innovative data collection can be used to better understand
and address the root causes of forced migration
Policy recommendations (3)

9. 2023 GFPR Table of Contents
1.The Road to Resilience: Rethinking Responses to Food Crises
2. Food Crisis Risk Monitoring: Early Warning for Early Action
3. Crisis Resilience: Humanitarian Response and Anticipatory Action
4. Agrifood Value Chains: Building Resilient Food Systems
5. Social Protection: Adaptive Safety Nets for Crisis Recovery
6. Gender: Promoting Equality in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Settings
7. Forced Migration: Fragility, Resilience, and Policy Responses
(+ Six Regional Chapters)

10. 2023 GFPR: A timely contribution
 Cutting-edge analysis from IFPRI and partners
about recent crises and their impacts on food
security, nutrition, poverty, and livelihoods
 Concrete strategies for crisis response
 Takeaways:
 Existing research, and additional investments in new
research, can serve decision-makers and support HDP
nexus strategies
 Transforming food systems is a logical and powerful entry
point from which to achieve crisis resilience