By Michael K. Ndegwa Pioneer Research and Empowerment Center (PioREC)

1. Impact of COVID-19 on the welfare of
rural households in Kenya (round 3)
Michael K. Ndegwa
Pioneer Research and Empowerment Center (PioREC)
Funded by USAID

2. COVID-19 Kenya situation
▪ First case: March 13, 2020
▪ As of December 7, 2020, the day of
completion of this report:
o 88,380 confirmed cases
(increased by 29,793 cases
from the last report)
o 68,929 recoveries – 78%
recovery rate
o 1,526 deaths – 1.7% fatality
rate, which is consistent with
the last two reports.
o The deaths increased by 475
from the last report
o Roughly 1,650 and 30 per
million infection and mortality
rate2, correspondingly
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
1
9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
105
113
121
129
137
145
153
161
169
177
185
193
201
209
217
225
233
241
249
257
265
273
281
289
297
305
313
Cases and deaths cumulative curves - Mar 14 –
Dec 6, 2020
Total cases Total deaths
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1
9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
105
113
121
129
137
145
153
161
169
177
185
193
201
209
217
225
233
241
249
257
265
273
281
289
297
305
313
Total cases per million Total deaths per million

3. COVID-19 Kenya situation
▪ Kenya seem to have now experienced it’s second spike with 1080 as the
highest daily cases and now starting to drop. The deaths curve follow a similar
trend with 1.7% mortality rate sustained throughout the study period
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1
9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
105
113
121
129
137
145
153
161
169
177
185
193
201
209
217
225
233
241
249
257
265
273
281
289
297
305
313
Daily cases and deaths since Mar 14 – Dec
6, 2020
New cases New cases smoothed New deaths
0
10
20
30
40
1
9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
105
113
121
129
137
145
153
161
169
177
185
193
201
209
217
225
233
241
249
257
265
273
281
289
297
305
313
Daily deaths from March 14 – December 6,
2020
New deaths New deaths smoothed

4. Phone Survey
▪ This is the final phase of a three-round Covid-19 survey which builds on a baseline
dual-headed household survey conducted in January-February 2020 among a
representative sample of rural farmers from Nakuru, Busia and Laikipia counties in
Kenya
▪ Targeted one principal decision maker in a household, either male or female, 250 of
each gender
▪ The 1st phone survey was conducted in mid-September with 287 women and 261
men (548 total)
▪ The 2nd round end of October with 263 women and 240 men (503 total)
▪ The 3rd round in early December with 261 women and 243 men (504 total)
▪ Focus on behavioral responses to COVID-19, income changes, food and nutrition
security, water security, mobility as well as interruption of school programmes
▪ An appreciation token of Ksh 200 ($2) was offered for each completed survey

5. Survey implemented in
Busia, Laikipia and Nakuru
counties of Kenya

6. Location of respondents- Distribution across counties and
sub-counties
56 52
49 53 51
41 44
51 52 55
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Laikipia East Laikipia West Budalangi Molo Kuresoi North
Laikipia County Busia County Nakuru County
Proportionofhouseholds
Female Male

7. Speaker phone turned on or off:
▪ Only 3% of respondents had their speaker phone on
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Female respondent Male respondent Overall
Proportionofhouseholds
Speaker phone turned off Speaker phone turned on

8. Income loss due to Covid-19
▪ Most of the respondents
continue to suffer from
income losses due to the
pandemic
▪ The number of men
reporting income loss has
been consistently dropping
over the survey waves from
82% in first wave to 64% in
the current wave
▪ Number of women reporting
income loss has remained
consistently high through
out the study – roughly 85%
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 1 Round 2 Round 3
Men Women
No 17.62 21.25 35.8 14.63 17.49 15.33
Yes 82.38 78.75 64.2 85.37 82.51 84.29
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Proportionofhouseholds

9. Income loss coping mechanisms over waves
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Used
savings
Sold assets Borrowed Consumed
less
Received
transfer
Found
alternative
work
Reduced
expenditure
Proportionofhouseholds
Men
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Used
savings
Sold assets Borrowed Consumed
less
Received
transfer
Found
alternative
work
Reduced
expenditure
Proportionofhouseholds
Women
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3▪ Use of savings and sale of assets
were the most prominent income loss
coping mechanisms when we started
but we see this declining consistently
and substantially over the waves for
both men and women
▪ This is a likely indication of depletion
of savings and assets, which would
have far reaching ramifications for
the households even post Covid-19
▪ Borrowing, which too may have
negative ramifications post Covid-19,
remains an important coping strategy
for around half of the respondents
▪ Rationed consumption and
expenditure are also key among
about half of the households while
external support from the
government and/or NGOs remain
scarce

10. Time to rebuild savings, assets and recover from debts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Time to rebuild
savings
Time to rebuild
assest
Time to clear debts
(**)
Months
Female Male
▪ We asked survey participants how
long they anticipated it would take
them to get back to their financial
and asset status of before Covid-
19.
o They believe it would take
roughly 1 year to rebuild
savings and assets back to
where they were and about 4-6
months to repay Covid19
triggered debts
o This is assuming that the
pandemic does not deplete their
savings and assets further,
while plunging them deeper into
debts

11. Worked in the last 7 days
▪ The percentage of men able to
work slightly increased from
88% in the first round to 90%
in second and third rounds.
▪ The percentage of women able
to work reduced substantially
from 82% in the first round to
63% in the second round and
we see a slight increase (to
68%) in the third round
▪ Their ability to engage in
financially gainful activities
continue to be curtailed by the
pandemic
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 1 Round 2 Round 3
Men Women
Proportionofhouseholds
Yes No

12. Time worked in the last 7 days compared to before COVID-19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
More than before Less than before About the same as
before
More than before Less than before About the same as
before
Respondents working hours compared to before Covid 19
pandemic
Spouse working hours compared to before Covid 19 pandemic
Proportionofhouseholds
Female Male

13. Comparing mobility before and during Covid-19
▪ Ease of mobility has not
improved since the first and
second rounds with 89%
curtailed mobility in the current
round.
▪ Attending religious functions
and buying food remain the two
most reason why people moved
out of their homes
▪ Some gender disparity in
movement purpose remains
visible with more men than
women meeting friends,
attending meetings and going
for employment while more
women than men moved out for
medical care and to fetch water.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Female Male Total
Proportionofhouseholds
Are you able to get around more or less
than before Covid-19?
Less than before About the same as bef More than before

14. Assessing mobility during Covid-19 pandemic
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Attend
religious
functions
Buy food Meet friends Attend
meetings
Employment Medical care Collect water Sell food
In the past two weeks, have you gone out of your home to: Can still
obtain veg for
family
Proportionofhouseholds Male respondents Female respondents

15. Hours spent caring for others in the household in the last 24 hours
▪ Time spent by women providing
care has remained consistent
through the waves at 8 hours,
which has been corroborated by
their male spouses all through
▪ On the other hand, the time men
spent providing care has reduced
consistently from 7 hours in first
wave to 5 hours in second wave
and now 4 hours, which agrees
with women’s report about their
male spouses.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Female
(n=148)
Male
(n=162)
Total
(n=310)
Female
(n=263)
Male
(n=240)
Total
(n=503)
Conditional mean (p***) Overall mean (p**)
Hours
Respondent houses
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Female
(n=24)
Male
(n=185)
Total
(n=209)
Female
(n=151)
Male
(n=237)
Total
(n=388)
Conditional mean (p***) Overall mean (p***)
Hours
Spouse hours

16. Any sickness in the household in the last 2 weeks? (Yes)
▪ Disease burden remains
considerably high with
roughly half (with some
slight variations which wash
out) of both men and
women reporting some
sickness in their households
during the two weeks
leading to any survey round.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 1 Round 2 Round 3
Female Male
Proportionofhouseholds

17. Changes in food access since COVID19 affected communities
▪ The food access challenges
remains where 72% women
and 64% mean reported a
change in their food access.
▪ Consistent with other
rounds, well over half of the
households were unable to
obtain enough food and
reported eating less food
than before the pandemic
▪ Over a third ate different
foods from their usual dishes
and got food from different
sources
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
My food
access
changed (**)
Unable to
obtain
enough food
Eat less food Eat different
foods
Get food
from different
sourcesProportionofhouseholds
How food situation changed
Male respondents Female respondents

18. Food insecurity experience, in the last 2 weeks,
due to lack of money or other resources:
▪ Food insecurity situation
remains dire with 70% unable
to eat healthy foods while
about half:
o were worried they would
not have enough food,
o ate less than they thought
they should
▪ About a third had to skip
meals and another third were
at some point hungry but could
not eat due to lack of
recourses
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Unable to eat
healthy and
nutricious food
Worried that
you would not
have enough
food
Ate less than I
thought I
should
Had to skip a
meal
Were hunngry
but did not eat
Proportionofhouseholds
Female respondents Male respondents

19. Dietary diversity score
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Proportionofhouseholds
Number of foods consumed
Minimum Dietary Diversity Score for Women (MDD-W)
At least 5 food groups consumed in last 24 hours
MDD-W=0
39.9%
MDD-W=1
60.1%

20. Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH)
(Source of drinking water)
▪ Springs/rivers and
wells/bore holes
were the most
prominent sources of
drinking water across
all the waves.
▪ Less than 20% of the
households had
access to piped/tap
water for drinking.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Water from
Spring/river/lake/canal
Dug well/ Bore
well/Tube well
Piped water Rain water collection Delivered water
Proportionofhouseholds
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3

21. Household Water Insecurity Experience Scale (HWISE) – in the past
2 weeks
▪ Between 20% to one third of all women respondents are worried about
not having enough access to water. Women worry substantially more
about water for domestic uses than men.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male
Worried you would not have
enough water
Changed plans due to water
problems
There was no enough
drinking water
Went without washing
hands due to water
problems
Proportionofhouseholds
Never (0 times) Rarely (1 times) Sometimes (2-5 times) Often (6-10 times) Always (>10 times)

22. School and learning programmes disruption
▪ 71% and 63% of the households
had boys and girls,
correspondingly, who were of
school going age.
▪ Among them, they had on average
2 boys and/or 2 girls of this age
bracket.
▪ Almost all of the households with
such boys and girls said they were
attending school before Covid-19
▪ Only just above 40% who said
they have some of their children
attending schools now
▪ Almost all (99%) of those with
boys and girls not attending
school due to the pandemic said
they would send them back when
schools reopen
Variable
N -
Households
Conditional
percentage
Conditional
mean
School going aged boys 358 71 1.96
Boys attending school, before
Covid19 351 98 1.96
Boys currently attending school 157 44 1.45
Boys attending school online 8 2 1.25
School going aged girls 315 63 1.82
Girls attending school, before
Covid19 312 99 1.81
Girls currently attending school 129 41 1.29
Girls attending school online 5 2 1.20
Would send boys to school when
reopened 157 44 0.99
Would send girls to school when
reopened 129 41 0.99

23. Household conflict – Disagreement and conflict resolution
▪ This section was asked only
those who had
spouses/partners, had their
speaker phone off and were in
private space.
▪ In this round, more women
than men reported spousal
conflicts
▪ Further, more women indicated
poor conflict resolution
between them and their
spouses
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Female
respondent
Male Respondent Female
respondent
Male Respondent
Had a disagreement or fought in the
last two weeks
Easily worked out everyday spousal
problems together
Proportionofhouseholds
Not at all Rarely Sometimes Often Refused

24. Household conflict
▪ Substantially more
women than men were
afraid of either their
spouses or another
member of the
household
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Female respondent Male respondent Female respondent Male respondent
Been afriad of spouse in the last two
weeks
Been afraid of other family member in
the last two weeks
Proportionofhouseholds
Not at all Rarely Sometimes Often Refused

25. Conclusions
▪ The Covid-19 pandemic and the associated restrictions continue to disrupt life and productivity
for rural households, particularly as a second wave of Covid-19 cases set in in
September/October.
▪ While men’s experience of income losses has declined over the three rounds to 64% in the 3rd
wave, the share of women reporting income losses has remained consistently high throughout
the study at roughly 85%
▪ Both women and men reduced use of savings and borrowing to cope with income losses,
possibly because these financial sources have declined; instead both now focus increasingly on
reducing expenditures
▪ The share of women able to work reduced substantially from 82% in the first round to 63% in
the second round and 68% in the third round while 90% of men are able to work (outside the
home)
▪ Food insecurity remains high with more than half of all men and all women respondents not
being able to obtain enough food and eating less food than needed
▪ Between 20% to one third of all women respondents are worried about not having enough
access to water. Women worry substantially more about water for domestic uses than men.
▪ Substantially more women than men were afraid of either their spouses or another member of
the household
▪ The results suggest that key Covid-19 impacts are gendered, and that gender-specific response
options are required