16.00 Updates to CURED and CREAM Emissions Models.pdf

1. Dr Kate Wilkins
Updates to CURED and
CREAM Emissions Models

2. CURED
2
•Predicts emissions of NOx from road vehicles
•Previously (V1-V3):
• Real-world NOx emissions from diesels vs Defra’s Emission Factors Toolkit (EFT)
Calculator Using Realistic Emissions for Diesels

3. New Evidence – Fleet Mix
3
• Uptake of Battery Electric
Vehicles (BEVs) is accelerating
• Ban on new petrol & diesel sales
from 2035
• Commitment to net zero by 2050
• In the EFT V11:
• National Atmospheric Emissions
Inventory (NAEI) outside London
• Transport for London (TfL) inside
London
• DfT/Highways England (2031-
2050) (England)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BEV
Cars
as
%
of
All
Cars
Year
Central London (TfL)
Inner London (TfL)
Outer London (TfL)
Average UK (Tag)
Average UK Outside London (EFT -
NAEI/DfT/HE)

4. New Evidence – Road NOx
4
‘Deweathered’ average
road-NOx:
• Average UK roadside /
kerbside NOx minus
average UK urban
background NOx
EFT V11 NOx emissions:
• Basic split, urban
England (not London),
10,000 AADT, 48 kph,
5% HDV

5. New Evidence – Non-Exhaust PM
5
• Method in the 2019 version of
EMEP/EEA guidebook allows for
calculation based on:
• speed-dependence
• HGV load
• vehicle weight/braking efficiency

6. CURED
6
•Now (V4A):
• Uses DfT’s Transport Analysis Guidebook (TAG) for EV projections
• Different approach for non-exhaust emissions of PM10 and PM2.5
• Up to 2050
Calculator Using Realistic Electric-vehicle Data

7. CURED – Comparison with EFT V11
7
NOx
•Urban
•England (not London)
•10,000 AADT
•2023
•NOx emissions from
CURED slightly lower
than EFT
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
0%
HDV
50%
HDV
100%
HDV
0%
HDV
50%
HDV
100%
HDV
0%
HDV
50%
HDV
100%
HDV
100%
HDV,
0%
load
100%
HDV,
100%
load
NOx
Emissions
(g/km/s)
CURED
EFT
20 kph 48 kph 96 kph

8. CURED – Comparison with EFT V11
8
NOx
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
0.035
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
NOx
Emissions
(g/km/s)
Year
Urban CURED
Urban EFT
Rural CURED
Rural EFT
Motorway CURED
Motorway EFT
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
NOx
Emissions
as
%
of
those
in
2022
Year
Urban CURED
Urban EFT
Rural CURED
Rural EFT
Motorway CURED
Motorway EFT
• England (not London)
• 10,000 AADT
• 5% HDV
• 48 kph for urban and rural roads, 96
kph for motorway roads

9. CURED – Comparison with EFT V11
9
PM10
•Urban
•England (not London)
•10,000 AADT
•2023
•Difference in
emissions is based on
speed, % HDV and
HDV load, mainly due
to brake and tyre
wear and road
abrasion
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.012
0.014
0.016
0.018
0% HDV 50% HDV 100%
HDV
0% HDV 50% HDV 100%
HDV
0% HDV 50% HDV 100%
HDV
100%
HDV, 0%
load
100%
HDV,
100%
load
PM
10
Emissions
(g/km/s)
CURED EFT
20 kph 48 kph 96 kph

10. CURED – Comparison with EFT V11
10
PM10
0.0000
0.0005
0.0010
0.0015
0.0020
0.0025
0.0030
0.0035
0.0040
0.0045
0.0050
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
PM
10
Emissions
(g/km/s)
Year
Urban CURED
Urban EFT
Rural CURED
Rural EFT
Motorway CURED
Motorway EFT
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
PM
10
Emissions
as
%
of
those
in
2022
Year
Urban CURED
Urban EFT
Rural CURED
Rural EFT
Motorway CURED
Motorway EFT
• England (not London)
• 10,000 AADT
• 5% HDV
• 48 kph for urban and rural roads, 96
kph for motorway roads

11. CREAM
11
•Predicts emissions of ammonia from road vehicles
•Previously (V1A):
• Used fleet mixes used within the EFT
• Conservative approach to account for uncertainties in future ammonia emission factors
Calculator for Road Emissions of AMmonia

12. CREAM
12
Calculator for Road Emissions of AMmonia
•Now (V2A):
• Includes the same fleet projections as used in the new CURED model
• Updated emission factors
• Cold Starts

13. CREAM V1A vs V2A
13
• England (Rural)
• 50 kph
• 1,000 AADT
• 5% HDV
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
NH3
(mg/v/km)
CREAM V1A
CREAM V2A
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
2015 2020 2025 2030
NH
3
Emission
Factor
(g/km)
20-40
kph
Pre Euro 3 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6

14. CREAM V1A vs V2A
14
0.0000
0.0005
0.0010
0.0015
0.0020
0.0025
0.0030
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
NH
3
(g/km/s)
3kph, 0% cold starts 8kph, 0% cold starts 15kph, 0% cold starts
30kph, 0% cold starts 50kph, 0% cold starts 3kph, 25% cold starts
8kph, 25% cold starts 15kph, 25% cold starts 30kph, 25% cold starts
50kph, 25% cold starts

15. What’s Next?
15
Any updates to EFT fleet mix will be reviewed and incorporated into the tools
Amendments to CURED will be made to allow it to work alongside new version of
EFT
Tools to be published imminently!

16. www.logika.group