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Peak Oil Futures:
a possible transport scenario to 2030 and its
consequences, using the “4see” model

                 By Simon Roberts, Arup
      (Foresight, Innovation and Incubation Group)
                  15th November 2011
             For APPGOPO, Westminster
• “Peak oil” is a global
      problem..→
    • ..but take a UK perspective
    • How might the UK prepare?




    • Apply Arup’s “4see” model
      (socio-economic and energy)
    • Develop an example scenario
      (not a forecast) of possible
                                     ITPOES Report 2, February 2010




      feasible proactive steps to
      reduce oil dependency
                                                                      Global oil demand for 1920-2008 with extrapolations to 2050.




2   Introduction
Challenge for the scenario

    • Acceptable by society:
      - acknowledge driving behaviour

    • Technically feasible:
      - scaleable over next 10 years

    • Economically affordable:
      - not bankrupt UK economy

    • Politically acceptable:
      - check side effects on economy

    • Data sources:
      - use official statistics and other reputable sources



3   Scenario constraints
• Total oil (petroleum                Total petroleum products consumed
      products) use by UK,                       4,000

      historical data →                          3,000




                                          PJ/y
                                                 2,000


                                                 1,000


                                                    0
                                                     1990   2000   2010   2020   2030



    • Petroleum products
      (pet-prod) use in transport →
    • Chart shows the main users:
       -   vans (LGV)
       -   trucks (HGV) *
       -   aviation
       -   cars *


4   Use in the UK of petroleum products
4see model



Introduction to one part of the model
Cars




6   Cars
Cars: data for numbers of
                                 Size of car fleet                                New cars per year
                        32,000                                            3,200


                        24,000                                            2,400




                                                                k veh/y
                        16,000                                            1,600




                    k
                         8,000                                             800


                            0                                                0
                            1990    2000   2010   2020   2030                1990    2000   2010   2020   2030




7   Cars data
Cars: stocks-and-flows model
                                         Size of car fleet                                New cars per year
                                32,000                                            3,200


                                24,000                                            2,400




                                                                        k veh/y
             14.5 years         16,000                                            1,600




                            k
                                 8,000                                             800


                                    0                                                0
                                    1990    2000   2010   2020   2030                1990    2000   2010   2020   2030




8   Cars stocks and flows
Cars: data for fuel use and distance travelled

                   Pet-prod use by cars                                   Total car km
           1,200                                                440,000


            900                                                 330,000




                                                   M veh km/y
PJ/y




            600                                                 220,000


            300                                                 110,000


              0                                                      0
              1990     2000   2010   2020   2030                     1990 2000   2010 2020   2030




       9    Cars data
Cars: process flows model


               Average car fuel consumption                                Average car km per year
               0.004                                                  20


               0.003                                                  15




                                                       k km/(y*veh)
PJ/M veh km




               0.002                                                  10


               0.001                                                  5


                   0                                                  0
                    1990   2000   2010   2020   2030                  1990 1998 2006 2014 2022 2030




              10   Cars process flows
Cars: full model, trended forward
                                             New cars per year
                                     3,200


                  14.5 years         2,400




                               k/y
                                     1,600


                                      800


                                        0
                                        1990    2000   2010   2020   2030




11   Cars model
Trucks




12   Trucks
Trucks: stocks-and-flows and process flows model
                                                                                     New trucks per year
                                                                                      New trucks per year
                                                                             8060


                                            10.2 years                       6045




                                                                        k veh/y
                                                                       k veh/y
                                                                             4030
               Average truck fuel consumption                                                                                         Average truck km per year
                                                                                                                                      Average          per year
               Average truck fuel consumption
               0.016                                                                                                             80
                                                                                                                                 80
               0.016                                                         2015


               0.012                                                                                                             60
                                                                                                                                 60
               0.012                                                              0 0




                                                                                                                  k km/(y*veh)
 PJ/M veh km
PJ/M veh km




                                                                                  1990 2000 2006 2014 2022 2030
                                                                                    1990 1998 2010 2020 2030
               0.008                                                                                                             40
                                                                                                                                 40
               0.008
                                                                  Size of truck fleet
               0.004                                                                                                             20
                                                                                                                                 20
               0.004                                     600

                  0                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                                                 0
                  0                                      450                                                                     1990 1998 2006 2014 2020 2030
                                                                                                                                  1990 2000 2010      2022
                   1990 2000 2010   2020   2030
                   1990 2000 2010   2020   2030

                                                         300
                                                     k




                                                         150


                                                           0
                                                           1990     2000      2010     2020   2030




        13       Trucks model
Scenario



Developing the transport part
Business as usual (BAU)                  Petroleum products for transport
                                              2,400
     • Total consumption of
                                              1,800
       petroleum products used by
       all transportation →




                                      PJ/y
                                              1,200


                                                600


                                                  0
                                                  1990    2000   2010   2020   2030



     • Cumulative costs of measures              £(1990) cost of measures
       to reduce use of petroleum             16,000

       products by transportation →           12,000




                                      AM£/y
                                               8,000


                                               4,000


                                                   0
                                                   1990   2000   2010   2020   2030




15   Developing scenario I
• The upper estimate assumes
                                                                                       10% supply from first
                                                                                       generation biofuels because
                                                                                       biofuels will also be
                                                                                       important to achieving the
                                                                                       Fuel Quality Directive
                                                                                     • A significant proportion of
     "Analysis of Renewables Growth to 2020", AEA Techology, March 2010, July 2011
                                                                                       UK biofuels are currently
                                                                                       sourced abroad
     • First generation technologies
       for biofuel:                                                                  • Difference between AEA’s
          - bioethanol technologies use                                                upper and lower estimates in
            sugar beet or wheat                                                        2030 is 2,000 Ml/y (53 PJ/y)
          - biodiesel processes use rape seed
            oil, palm oil or soy oil




16   Bioliquids
• Bioliquids                                   Petroleum products for transport
        - Additional 53 PJ/y (2,000 Ml/y)           2,400                                   ↓
          in 2030
                                                    1,800




                                            PJ/y
                                                    1,200


                                                      600


                                                        0
                                                        1990    2000   2010   2020   2030



                                                       £(1990) cost of measures
                                                    16,000


                                                    12,000




                                            AM£/y
                                                     8,000


                                                     4,000


                                                         0
                                                         1990   2000   2010   2020   2030




17   Developing scenario I
• Cars energy efficiency
                                                  -   Lightweighting 10%
                                                  -   Low rolling resistance tyres 3%
                                                  -   Improved aerodynamics 3%
                                                  -   Direct injection and lean burn
                                                      11%
                                                  -   Variable valve actuation 6%
                                                  -   Downsizing engine capacity with
                                                  -   turbocharging or supercharging
     Interim analytical report , October 2007
                                                      12%
     “By adopting a small selection               -   Dual clutch transmission 4%
     of the most cost-effective                   -   Stop–start 3%
     technologies, 30 per cent                    -   Stop–start with regenerative
     efficiency savings could be                      braking 7%
                                                  -   Electric motor assist 7%
     achieved for the average new
                                                  -   Reduced mechanical friction
     vehicle, relative to today’s                     components 4%
     equivalent model.”


18   Car energy efficiency
• Bioliquids                                     Petroleum products for transport
                                                      2,400                                   ↓
     • Energy efficiency of new cars
                                                      1,800
        - “by adopting a small selection of
          the most cost-effective




                                              PJ/y
                                                      1,200
          technologies”
        - 30% improvement                               600

        - £1,500 per vehicle (in 2007)
                                                          0
        - 50% of all new cars                             1990    2000   2010   2020   2030



                                                         £(1990) cost of measures
                                                      16,000


                                                      12,000




                                              AM£/y
                                                       8,000


                                                       4,000


                                                           0
                                                                                              ↑
                                                           1990   2000   2010   2020   2030




19   Developing scenario I
Trucks energy efficiency:
                                  • Aerodynamically shaped
                                    trailers
                                  • Aerodynamic fairings
                                  • Spray reduction mud flaps

     Ricardo report, March 2010
                                  • Low rolling resistance tyres
                                  • Single wide tyres
                                  • Automatic tyre pressure
                                    adjustment
                                  • Vehicle platooning




20   Truck energy efficiency
• Bioliquids                               Petroleum products for transport
                                                2,400
                                                                                        ↓
     • Energy efficiency of new cars
                                                1,800

     • Energy efficiency of new




                                        PJ/y
                                                1,200
       trucks
        - 44% improvement                         600

        - £16,300 per truck (in 2009)
                                                    0
        - 50% of all new trucks                     1990    2000   2010   2020   2030



                                                   £(1990) cost of measures
                                                16,000


                                                12,000




                                        AM£/y
                                                 8,000


                                                 4,000


                                                     0                                  ↑
                                                     1990   2000   2010   2020   2030




21   Developing scenario I
1999: Peugoet 106 electric with on-street charging point, opened by Kate Hoey MP   2004: 1kWp PV array on roof providing 2/3 of electricity for EV




     Prius hybrid (2000)                                                                Vegetable oil filling diesel VW camper




22   Personal experience
23
                          "Review of low carbon technologies for heavy goods vehicles“ April 2010




Cars trips and fuel use
24   Opel/Vauxhall Ampera, range-extended EV
• Bioliquids                                   Petroleum products for transport
                                                    2,400
     • Energy efficiency of new cars                                                        ↓
                                                    1,800

     • Energy efficiency of new




                                            PJ/y
                                                    1,200
       trucks
                                                      600
     • Plug-in hybrid/
       ranged-extended EV                               0
                                                        1990    2000   2010   2020   2030
        - range 35km corresponding to
          57% of usage
                                                       £(1990) cost of measures
        - but presume plugged in for only
                                                    16,000
          2/3 of potential electric range
        - £6,500 per vehicle (in 2007)              12,000
          from The King Review



                                            AM£/y
        - 50% of new vehicles                        8,000


                                                     4,000
                                                                                            ↑

                                                         0
                                                         1990   2000   2010   2020   2030




25   Developing scenario I
26   Natural & bio Gas Vehicle Association (NGVA)
• Bioliquids                                  Petroleum products for transport
                                                   2,400
     • Energy efficiency of new cars
                                                   1,800
                                                                                           ↓
     • Energy efficiency of new




                                           PJ/y
                                                   1,200
       trucks
                                                     600
     • Plug-in hybrid/ranged-
       extended electric vehicle                       0
                                                       1990    2000   2010   2020   2030


     • Compressed natural gas
       (CNG) on new cars                              £(1990) cost of measures
                                                   16,000
        - £5,000 per vehicle (in 2003)
        - 50% of new vehicles                      12,000

        - convert 1,300 filling stations                                                   ↑



                                           AM£/y
                                                    8,000


                                                    4,000


                                                        0
                                                        1990   2000   2010   2020   2030




27   Developing scenario I
• Increased gas use… →                      Total consumption of gas
                                              4,000


                                              3,000
                                                                                     ↑
     “2050 Pathways Analysis”




                                       PJ/y
                                              2,000
     DECC
                                              1,000
     • Onshore wind:
        - Level 1: 11 GW                         0
                                                  1990   2000   2010   2020   2030
        - Level 2: 20 GW
        - Level 3: 31 GW
                                                 Total consumption of gas
     • Offshore wind:                         4,000

        - Level 1: 8 GW                       3,000
        - Level 2: 46 GW



                                       PJ/y
        - Level 3: 68 GW                      2,000


                                              1,000



     • …offset by wind turbines →                0
                                                 1990    2000   2010   2020   2030




28   Offset gas use by wind turbines
• Bioliquids                              Petroleum products for transport
                                               2,400
     • Energy efficiency of new cars
                                               1,800

     • Energy efficiency of new




                                       PJ/y
                                               1,200
       trucks
                                                 600
     • Plug-in hybrid/ranged-
       extended electric vehicle                   0
                                                   1990    2000   2010   2020   2030
        - With extra 9 GW onshore
     • Compressed natural gas                     £(1990) cost of measures
                                               16,000
       (CNG) on new cars
        - With extra 27 GW offshore            12,000                                  ↑




                                       AM£/y
                                                8,000


                                                4,000


                                                    0
                                                    1990   2000   2010   2020   2030




29   Developing scenario I
• Bioliquids                              Petroleum products for transport
                                               2,400
     • Energy efficiency of new cars                                                   ↓
                                               1,800
        - 25% of new cars




                                       PJ/y
                                               1,200
     • Energy efficiency of new
       trucks                                    600

        - 50% of new trucks
                                                   0
                                                   1990    2000   2010   2020   2030
     • Plug-in hybrid/ranged-
       extended electric vehicle
                                                  £(1990) cost of measures
        - 25% of new cars                      16,000
        - With extra 3.5 GW onshore
                                               12,000
     • Compressed natural gas


                                       AM£/y
       (CNG) on new cars                        8,000

        - 25% of new cars                                                              ↑
                                                4,000
        - With extra 17 GW offshore
                                                    0
                                                    1990   2000   2010   2020   2030




30   Developing scenario II
• Cost compared to GDP:
       - 0.76% →


                                        Measures cost as proportion of GDP
                                           0.02


                                          0.015


                                           0.01
     • Does this low proportion
       mean the economy can               0.005
                                                                                 ↑
       “afford” the investment?
                                             0
     • What side effects across the           1990   2000   2010   2020   2030
       economy might result from
       systemic interaction?



31   Cost of measures compared to GDP
GDP



Another part of the 4see model
33   Supply and Use Tables for deriving GDP
Output                           Expenditure
                      ↓                                  ↓




34   GDP from production by three larger economic sectors (2008)
GDP(output)                     GDP(expenditure)
      ↓           ↓                                  ↓




35   GDP from production by three larger economic sectors (2008)
Sector dependency (intermediate consumption)
                   ↓




36   GDP from production by three larger economic sectors (2008)
Destination of final demand
                                                                   ↓




37   GDP from production by three larger economic sectors (2008)
Investment maintains and grows assets
                                  ↓




38   GDP from production by three larger economic sectors (2008)
Sector inputs: fuels, electricity, jobs
       ↓




39   Inputs to the economy
One sector alone: service sector




40   Service sector
Economic sector: stocks-and-flows, process flows




41   Service sector stocks-and-flows and process flows
Measures increase investment proportion of GDP




                                                      ↓




42   GDP expenditure components over time
Side effects of measures



Systemic consequences suggested by the 4see model
44   Unemployment
Growth                                             Growth of GDP per year
                                                   0.04
     • Annual growth peaked at 4%
       in the past →                               0.03




                                         per y
                                                   0.02
     • Scenario here has growth of
       about 1.8% →                                0.01


                                                        0
                                                        1990   2000   2010   2020   2030



     Unemployment                                       Unemployment rate (%)
                                                   12

     • Increased by 0.4 percentage
       points →
                                                    9




                                         percent
                                                    6                                      ↑
     • 150,000 more unemployed
                                                    3

     • Results from differing jobs                  0
       intensity of goods and services              1990       2000   2010   2020   2030




45   Economic growth and unemployment
• Trade in fuel: derive price                                                     Crude oil price
       from actual trading costs                                              12

       (from the “Pink Book”) →                                                9




                                                                     FM£/PJ
     • Reference price to basket of                                            6

       27 economies using REER
                                                                               3
       (Real Equivalent Exchange
       Rate)                                                                   0
                                                                               1990     2000   2010   2020   2030



     • Oil refineries                                                              Petroleum products price
        - historical constant capacity                                        12

        - so constant demand for crude                                         9
        - and constant output



                                                                     FM£/PJ
                                                                               6

     • Therefore,
                                                                               3
        - as less petroleum products are
          used,                                                                0
        - more petroleum products exported                                     1990     2000   2010   2020   2030




46   Trading price of fuels with respect to a basket of currencies
• Imports of fuel decreased                         Fuel net exports
       (higher level on chart of net           14,000

       exports) →                                   0


     • Cost reduction by M£6,000/y




                                       EM£/y
                                               -14,000

       (at 1990 prices)
                                               -28,000

                                                                                   ↑
                                               -42,000
                                                     1990 2000 2010 2020 2030



     • Imports of goods (less fuel)            Goods (less fuel) net exports
       increased (lower level on                     0

       chart of net exports) →                  -30,000




                                       EM£/y
     • Cost increase of M£4,000/y               -60,000

       (at 1990 prices)                         -90,000


                                               -120,000                            ↓
                                                      1990    2002   2014   2026




47   Changes in trade
• Effect on CO2 emissions
       compared to BAU (reference
       case)
     • Reduction by 40 MtCO2/y in                    Total CO2 emissions
       2030 →                                  600


                                               450                                   ↓




                                     MtCO2/y
                                               300


                                               150


                                                 0
     • Implementation of low-                     1990   2000   2010   2020   2030

       carbon measures for other
       parts of economy not
       considered in this scenario


48   CO2 emissions
Final comments
Generation:                        Consumption:
     • Biomass electricity              • Efficiency in workspace,
                                          warehouse and retail
     • Bioenergy boilers
                                        • Aviation efficiencies
     • Solar thermal hot water
                                        • Passiv haus new housing
     • PV (photovoltaics)
                                        • Double glazing
     • CCS (carbon capture and
       sequestration)                   • Loft insulation
     • CSP (concentrator solar          • Cavity wall insulation
       power) electricity transmitted
       from North Africa                • Solid wall insulation
                                        • Heat pumps
                                        • LED lighting


50   Other measures in the 4see model
• GDP analysis blind to
       ownership within economy
     • If full cost of measures were
       put onto use of petroleum                     Measures cost per litre of fuel
       products then..                               0.4

     • ..about 20p per litre (at
       current prices) →
                                                     0.3




                                       £curr/litre
                                                     0.2
                                                                                          ↑

                                                     0.1


                                                      0
                                                       1990   2000   2010   2020   2030




51   Possible payment system
Petroleum products for transport           • 1,300 CNG refuelling
                    2,400                                        stations
                                                           ↓
                    1,800
                                                               • 3.5GW increase in onshore
                                                                 and 17GW in offshore wind
             PJ/y



                    1,200


                      600                                      • Unemployment up 150,000
                        0
                        1990   2000   2010   2020   2030
                                                               • Fuel imports down
                                                                 M£1,100/y (1990£)
     • Petroleum products 22%                                  • Goods imports up M£600/y
       reduction in 2030:                                        (1990£)
        - 2% from biofuels
        - 3% from efficiency of cars                           • CO2 emissions reduction
        - 4% from efficiency of trucks                           40MtCO2/y
        - 3% from plug-in hybrid or range-
          extended EV                                          • Cost 0.7% GDP as 20p/litre
        - 9% from CNG fuelled                                    on fuel


52   Scenario II
Observations from applying the 4see model to
     reduce petroleum products use by transportation
     • Main pet-prod users: cars, HGVs, LGVs, aviation
     • Note trends in vehicle ownership and driving behaviour
     • Apply a combination of technology and fuels
     • The 4see model can calculate marginal costs to the economy
     • A shift from final consumption (of GDP) to investment might
       increase unemployment
     • Comparing changes in value of imported fuel to imported goods
       could show a benefit
     • This scenario is a starting point for examing the system
       interactions and sensitivies of these issues


53   Conclusions
www.driversofchange.com

  peakoiltaskforce.net

       Simon Roberts
   simon.roberts@arup.com
Supply Table




55   Supply Table
Use Table




56   Use Table
Factor incomes




57   Factor incomes
Final demand




58   Final demand

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Peak Oil Futures

  • 1. Peak Oil Futures: a possible transport scenario to 2030 and its consequences, using the “4see” model By Simon Roberts, Arup (Foresight, Innovation and Incubation Group) 15th November 2011 For APPGOPO, Westminster
  • 2. • “Peak oil” is a global problem..→ • ..but take a UK perspective • How might the UK prepare? • Apply Arup’s “4see” model (socio-economic and energy) • Develop an example scenario (not a forecast) of possible ITPOES Report 2, February 2010 feasible proactive steps to reduce oil dependency Global oil demand for 1920-2008 with extrapolations to 2050. 2 Introduction
  • 3. Challenge for the scenario • Acceptable by society: - acknowledge driving behaviour • Technically feasible: - scaleable over next 10 years • Economically affordable: - not bankrupt UK economy • Politically acceptable: - check side effects on economy • Data sources: - use official statistics and other reputable sources 3 Scenario constraints
  • 4. • Total oil (petroleum Total petroleum products consumed products) use by UK, 4,000 historical data → 3,000 PJ/y 2,000 1,000 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 • Petroleum products (pet-prod) use in transport → • Chart shows the main users: - vans (LGV) - trucks (HGV) * - aviation - cars * 4 Use in the UK of petroleum products
  • 5. 4see model Introduction to one part of the model
  • 6. Cars 6 Cars
  • 7. Cars: data for numbers of Size of car fleet New cars per year 32,000 3,200 24,000 2,400 k veh/y 16,000 1,600 k 8,000 800 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 7 Cars data
  • 8. Cars: stocks-and-flows model Size of car fleet New cars per year 32,000 3,200 24,000 2,400 k veh/y 14.5 years 16,000 1,600 k 8,000 800 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 8 Cars stocks and flows
  • 9. Cars: data for fuel use and distance travelled Pet-prod use by cars Total car km 1,200 440,000 900 330,000 M veh km/y PJ/y 600 220,000 300 110,000 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 9 Cars data
  • 10. Cars: process flows model Average car fuel consumption Average car km per year 0.004 20 0.003 15 k km/(y*veh) PJ/M veh km 0.002 10 0.001 5 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 1998 2006 2014 2022 2030 10 Cars process flows
  • 11. Cars: full model, trended forward New cars per year 3,200 14.5 years 2,400 k/y 1,600 800 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 11 Cars model
  • 12. Trucks 12 Trucks
  • 13. Trucks: stocks-and-flows and process flows model New trucks per year New trucks per year 8060 10.2 years 6045 k veh/y k veh/y 4030 Average truck fuel consumption Average truck km per year Average per year Average truck fuel consumption 0.016 80 80 0.016 2015 0.012 60 60 0.012 0 0 k km/(y*veh) PJ/M veh km PJ/M veh km 1990 2000 2006 2014 2022 2030 1990 1998 2010 2020 2030 0.008 40 40 0.008 Size of truck fleet 0.004 20 20 0.004 600 0 0 0 0 450 1990 1998 2006 2014 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2022 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 300 k 150 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 13 Trucks model
  • 15. Business as usual (BAU) Petroleum products for transport 2,400 • Total consumption of 1,800 petroleum products used by all transportation → PJ/y 1,200 600 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 • Cumulative costs of measures £(1990) cost of measures to reduce use of petroleum 16,000 products by transportation → 12,000 AM£/y 8,000 4,000 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 15 Developing scenario I
  • 16. • The upper estimate assumes 10% supply from first generation biofuels because biofuels will also be important to achieving the Fuel Quality Directive • A significant proportion of "Analysis of Renewables Growth to 2020", AEA Techology, March 2010, July 2011 UK biofuels are currently sourced abroad • First generation technologies for biofuel: • Difference between AEA’s - bioethanol technologies use upper and lower estimates in sugar beet or wheat 2030 is 2,000 Ml/y (53 PJ/y) - biodiesel processes use rape seed oil, palm oil or soy oil 16 Bioliquids
  • 17. • Bioliquids Petroleum products for transport - Additional 53 PJ/y (2,000 Ml/y) 2,400 ↓ in 2030 1,800 PJ/y 1,200 600 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 £(1990) cost of measures 16,000 12,000 AM£/y 8,000 4,000 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 17 Developing scenario I
  • 18. • Cars energy efficiency - Lightweighting 10% - Low rolling resistance tyres 3% - Improved aerodynamics 3% - Direct injection and lean burn 11% - Variable valve actuation 6% - Downsizing engine capacity with - turbocharging or supercharging Interim analytical report , October 2007 12% “By adopting a small selection - Dual clutch transmission 4% of the most cost-effective - Stop–start 3% technologies, 30 per cent - Stop–start with regenerative efficiency savings could be braking 7% - Electric motor assist 7% achieved for the average new - Reduced mechanical friction vehicle, relative to today’s components 4% equivalent model.” 18 Car energy efficiency
  • 19. • Bioliquids Petroleum products for transport 2,400 ↓ • Energy efficiency of new cars 1,800 - “by adopting a small selection of the most cost-effective PJ/y 1,200 technologies” - 30% improvement 600 - £1,500 per vehicle (in 2007) 0 - 50% of all new cars 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 £(1990) cost of measures 16,000 12,000 AM£/y 8,000 4,000 0 ↑ 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 19 Developing scenario I
  • 20. Trucks energy efficiency: • Aerodynamically shaped trailers • Aerodynamic fairings • Spray reduction mud flaps Ricardo report, March 2010 • Low rolling resistance tyres • Single wide tyres • Automatic tyre pressure adjustment • Vehicle platooning 20 Truck energy efficiency
  • 21. • Bioliquids Petroleum products for transport 2,400 ↓ • Energy efficiency of new cars 1,800 • Energy efficiency of new PJ/y 1,200 trucks - 44% improvement 600 - £16,300 per truck (in 2009) 0 - 50% of all new trucks 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 £(1990) cost of measures 16,000 12,000 AM£/y 8,000 4,000 0 ↑ 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 21 Developing scenario I
  • 22. 1999: Peugoet 106 electric with on-street charging point, opened by Kate Hoey MP 2004: 1kWp PV array on roof providing 2/3 of electricity for EV Prius hybrid (2000) Vegetable oil filling diesel VW camper 22 Personal experience
  • 23. 23 "Review of low carbon technologies for heavy goods vehicles“ April 2010 Cars trips and fuel use
  • 24. 24 Opel/Vauxhall Ampera, range-extended EV
  • 25. • Bioliquids Petroleum products for transport 2,400 • Energy efficiency of new cars ↓ 1,800 • Energy efficiency of new PJ/y 1,200 trucks 600 • Plug-in hybrid/ ranged-extended EV 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 - range 35km corresponding to 57% of usage £(1990) cost of measures - but presume plugged in for only 16,000 2/3 of potential electric range - £6,500 per vehicle (in 2007) 12,000 from The King Review AM£/y - 50% of new vehicles 8,000 4,000 ↑ 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 25 Developing scenario I
  • 26. 26 Natural & bio Gas Vehicle Association (NGVA)
  • 27. • Bioliquids Petroleum products for transport 2,400 • Energy efficiency of new cars 1,800 ↓ • Energy efficiency of new PJ/y 1,200 trucks 600 • Plug-in hybrid/ranged- extended electric vehicle 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 • Compressed natural gas (CNG) on new cars £(1990) cost of measures 16,000 - £5,000 per vehicle (in 2003) - 50% of new vehicles 12,000 - convert 1,300 filling stations ↑ AM£/y 8,000 4,000 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 27 Developing scenario I
  • 28. • Increased gas use… → Total consumption of gas 4,000 3,000 ↑ “2050 Pathways Analysis” PJ/y 2,000 DECC 1,000 • Onshore wind: - Level 1: 11 GW 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 - Level 2: 20 GW - Level 3: 31 GW Total consumption of gas • Offshore wind: 4,000 - Level 1: 8 GW 3,000 - Level 2: 46 GW PJ/y - Level 3: 68 GW 2,000 1,000 • …offset by wind turbines → 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 28 Offset gas use by wind turbines
  • 29. • Bioliquids Petroleum products for transport 2,400 • Energy efficiency of new cars 1,800 • Energy efficiency of new PJ/y 1,200 trucks 600 • Plug-in hybrid/ranged- extended electric vehicle 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 - With extra 9 GW onshore • Compressed natural gas £(1990) cost of measures 16,000 (CNG) on new cars - With extra 27 GW offshore 12,000 ↑ AM£/y 8,000 4,000 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 29 Developing scenario I
  • 30. • Bioliquids Petroleum products for transport 2,400 • Energy efficiency of new cars ↓ 1,800 - 25% of new cars PJ/y 1,200 • Energy efficiency of new trucks 600 - 50% of new trucks 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 • Plug-in hybrid/ranged- extended electric vehicle £(1990) cost of measures - 25% of new cars 16,000 - With extra 3.5 GW onshore 12,000 • Compressed natural gas AM£/y (CNG) on new cars 8,000 - 25% of new cars ↑ 4,000 - With extra 17 GW offshore 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 30 Developing scenario II
  • 31. • Cost compared to GDP: - 0.76% → Measures cost as proportion of GDP 0.02 0.015 0.01 • Does this low proportion mean the economy can 0.005 ↑ “afford” the investment? 0 • What side effects across the 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 economy might result from systemic interaction? 31 Cost of measures compared to GDP
  • 32. GDP Another part of the 4see model
  • 33. 33 Supply and Use Tables for deriving GDP
  • 34. Output Expenditure ↓ ↓ 34 GDP from production by three larger economic sectors (2008)
  • 35. GDP(output) GDP(expenditure) ↓ ↓ ↓ 35 GDP from production by three larger economic sectors (2008)
  • 36. Sector dependency (intermediate consumption) ↓ 36 GDP from production by three larger economic sectors (2008)
  • 37. Destination of final demand ↓ 37 GDP from production by three larger economic sectors (2008)
  • 38. Investment maintains and grows assets ↓ 38 GDP from production by three larger economic sectors (2008)
  • 39. Sector inputs: fuels, electricity, jobs ↓ 39 Inputs to the economy
  • 40. One sector alone: service sector 40 Service sector
  • 41. Economic sector: stocks-and-flows, process flows 41 Service sector stocks-and-flows and process flows
  • 42. Measures increase investment proportion of GDP ↓ 42 GDP expenditure components over time
  • 43. Side effects of measures Systemic consequences suggested by the 4see model
  • 44. 44 Unemployment
  • 45. Growth Growth of GDP per year 0.04 • Annual growth peaked at 4% in the past → 0.03 per y 0.02 • Scenario here has growth of about 1.8% → 0.01 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Unemployment Unemployment rate (%) 12 • Increased by 0.4 percentage points → 9 percent 6 ↑ • 150,000 more unemployed 3 • Results from differing jobs 0 intensity of goods and services 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 45 Economic growth and unemployment
  • 46. • Trade in fuel: derive price Crude oil price from actual trading costs 12 (from the “Pink Book”) → 9 FM£/PJ • Reference price to basket of 6 27 economies using REER 3 (Real Equivalent Exchange Rate) 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 • Oil refineries Petroleum products price - historical constant capacity 12 - so constant demand for crude 9 - and constant output FM£/PJ 6 • Therefore, 3 - as less petroleum products are used, 0 - more petroleum products exported 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 46 Trading price of fuels with respect to a basket of currencies
  • 47. • Imports of fuel decreased Fuel net exports (higher level on chart of net 14,000 exports) → 0 • Cost reduction by M£6,000/y EM£/y -14,000 (at 1990 prices) -28,000 ↑ -42,000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 • Imports of goods (less fuel) Goods (less fuel) net exports increased (lower level on 0 chart of net exports) → -30,000 EM£/y • Cost increase of M£4,000/y -60,000 (at 1990 prices) -90,000 -120,000 ↓ 1990 2002 2014 2026 47 Changes in trade
  • 48. • Effect on CO2 emissions compared to BAU (reference case) • Reduction by 40 MtCO2/y in Total CO2 emissions 2030 → 600 450 ↓ MtCO2/y 300 150 0 • Implementation of low- 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 carbon measures for other parts of economy not considered in this scenario 48 CO2 emissions
  • 50. Generation: Consumption: • Biomass electricity • Efficiency in workspace, warehouse and retail • Bioenergy boilers • Aviation efficiencies • Solar thermal hot water • Passiv haus new housing • PV (photovoltaics) • Double glazing • CCS (carbon capture and sequestration) • Loft insulation • CSP (concentrator solar • Cavity wall insulation power) electricity transmitted from North Africa • Solid wall insulation • Heat pumps • LED lighting 50 Other measures in the 4see model
  • 51. • GDP analysis blind to ownership within economy • If full cost of measures were put onto use of petroleum Measures cost per litre of fuel products then.. 0.4 • ..about 20p per litre (at current prices) → 0.3 £curr/litre 0.2 ↑ 0.1 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 51 Possible payment system
  • 52. Petroleum products for transport • 1,300 CNG refuelling 2,400 stations ↓ 1,800 • 3.5GW increase in onshore and 17GW in offshore wind PJ/y 1,200 600 • Unemployment up 150,000 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 • Fuel imports down M£1,100/y (1990£) • Petroleum products 22% • Goods imports up M£600/y reduction in 2030: (1990£) - 2% from biofuels - 3% from efficiency of cars • CO2 emissions reduction - 4% from efficiency of trucks 40MtCO2/y - 3% from plug-in hybrid or range- extended EV • Cost 0.7% GDP as 20p/litre - 9% from CNG fuelled on fuel 52 Scenario II
  • 53. Observations from applying the 4see model to reduce petroleum products use by transportation • Main pet-prod users: cars, HGVs, LGVs, aviation • Note trends in vehicle ownership and driving behaviour • Apply a combination of technology and fuels • The 4see model can calculate marginal costs to the economy • A shift from final consumption (of GDP) to investment might increase unemployment • Comparing changes in value of imported fuel to imported goods could show a benefit • This scenario is a starting point for examing the system interactions and sensitivies of these issues 53 Conclusions
  • 54. www.driversofchange.com peakoiltaskforce.net Simon Roberts simon.roberts@arup.com
  • 55. Supply Table 55 Supply Table
  • 56. Use Table 56 Use Table
  • 57. Factor incomes 57 Factor incomes
  • 58. Final demand 58 Final demand