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David Wilson | Scotland’s Low Carbon Ambitions


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Presented at the 4th International Conference on Carbon Accounting
25th November 2011

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David Wilson | Scotland’s Low Carbon Ambitions

  1. 1. Scotland’s Low Carbon Ambitions David Wilson Director of Energy and Climate Change [email_address]
  2. 3. Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009: A strategic opportunity <ul><li>Act passed by the Scottish Parliament unanimously </li></ul><ul><li>Act requires CO2 reductions on a 1990 base of </li></ul><ul><ul><li>42% by 2020 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>80% by 2050 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Annual targets, with limited credit purchases </li></ul><ul><li>An environmental imperative and an economic opportunity </li></ul>
  3. 4. “ Hope is on the horizon. You are exploiting one of the greatest resources anywhere on the planet, with wind onshore and particularly offshore” Vice President Al Gore, visiting Edinburgh September 2011 &quot;The Scottish Government has already taken the lead with our ambitious legislation to cut emissions by 42% by 2020”. Mike Rann, the outgoing premier of South Australia, awarding Scotland’s First Minister the South Australia International Climate Change Award. International recognition of Scotland’s climate ambitions
  4. 5. Adjusted Scottish Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 1990 - 2008, and 2020 and 2050 Targets Base Year
  5. 6. Snapshot of progress to date.. Figure 2b:Greenhouse Gas Emissions by source 1990, 1995, 1998 - 2009                                                                                                   
  6. 7. 2009 data now available <ul><li>Net greenhouse gas emissions are 51.0 Mt CO2e </li></ul><ul><li>This is down 28.9% since 1990 </li></ul><ul><li>And down 7.0 per cent on 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Well below 2010 Annual Target of 53.6 Mt </li></ul><ul><li>And below our modelled estimates </li></ul>
  7. 8. Current Policies are not enough to achieve targets….. Current policies
  8. 9. Current policies + new proposals not enough either New proposals Current policies
  9. 10. Current Policies + EU move to 30% Traded sector emissions is enough EU move to 30% target Current policies
  10. 11. Current policies +proposals+ EU move to 30% is comfortably enough EU move to 30% target New proposals Current policies
  11. 12. <ul><li>Scottish Government targets </li></ul><ul><li>31% of electricity consumption from renewables by 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>100% of electricity consumption from renewables by 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>12% reduction in overall energy use by 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>11% of Heat from renewable sources by 2020 </li></ul>
  12. 13. Beatrice Project, World’s Deepest Offshore Wind Installation 2 x 5 MW machines in 45 water depth Pelamis P2 device Testing at EMEC – the world’s only grid connected wave and tidal test base Peterhead World leading integrated gas CCS project Whitelee Wind Farm, near Glasgow 322MW, 140 turbines Europe’s largest windfarm
  13. 14. Abatement potential
  14. 15. Housing challenge is well understood, but needs funded <ul><li>Fuel poverty and home insulation schemes for 2013-2022 </li></ul><ul><li>Improved energy standards for new buildings from 2013 </li></ul><ul><li>(Also needs high uptake by Scottish Households of UK Green Deal, Energy Company Obligation and Renewable Heat Incentive) </li></ul>Homes and Communities Proposals
  15. 16. Transport proposals <ul><li>Eco-driving training for all car, van and HGV drivers </li></ul><ul><li>Speed limit enforcement on dual carriageways </li></ul><ul><li>Low carbon vehicle infrastructure and procurement support </li></ul><ul><li>Measures to improved HGV and van efficiencies </li></ul><ul><li>Maritime transport efficiencies </li></ul><ul><li>Personal travel planning for all households by 2022 </li></ul><ul><li>Cycling and walking infrastructure Support for car clubs in small towns </li></ul><ul><li>Investment in public transport </li></ul><ul><li>Further incentives for freight modal shift </li></ul><ul><li>Community hubs for tele-working in rural areas </li></ul>
  16. 17. Agriculture and Forestry Proposals <ul><li>Inclusion of mandatory climate change measures in EU Common Agricultural Policy </li></ul><ul><li>Increase woodland creation to 15,000 hectares per year </li></ul>
  17. 18. Where will emissions savings arise from – a 20by20 Plan? <ul><li>Greening up at source </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1. More Offshore Wind </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2. More Marine energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3. More onshore wind/Microgen </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4. Carbon Capture and Storage </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5. More Renewable Heat </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>6. Low carbon transport </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>7. Enhancing our environment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>8. Extension of our forests </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>9. Restoration of our peatlands </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10. Low carbon farming practices </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Moderating Energy Demand </li></ul><ul><li>1. Better heating management </li></ul><ul><li>2. Avoiding heat loss </li></ul><ul><li>3. Installing a more efficient energy system or generating your own. </li></ul><ul><li>4. Saving electricity by switching off </li></ul><ul><li>5. Driving in moderation, particularly as a sole driver </li></ul><ul><li>6. Buying a more energy efficient vehicle, and driving better </li></ul><ul><li>7. Flying in moderation </li></ul><ul><li>8. Wasting less food </li></ul><ul><li>9. Eating a low impact diet </li></ul><ul><li>10. Buying better </li></ul>
  18. 19. Adapted from Royal Dutch Shell Foresight matters . . . Current Realities ( mental maps ) Multiple Paths Alternative Future Images FORESIGHT The Present The Path The Future FORECAST
  19. 20. Key Variables
  20. 21. Scenarios
  21. 22. Some issues to provoke thought <ul><li>Our data needs you! </li></ul><ul><li>The Emissions Trading Scheme is critical </li></ul><ul><li>Not all our Proposals will go ahead, but that’s OK </li></ul><ul><li>The importance of Behaviours - the RPP underestimates abatement activity </li></ul><ul><li>And “it’s the economy, stupid” </li></ul><ul><li>And can we afford it? </li></ul>
  22. 23. The Affordability challenge
  23. 25. Scotland’s Low Carbon Ambitions David Wilson Director of Energy and Climate Change [email_address]
  24. 26. 25% Europe’s offshore wind potential 10% Europe’s wave potential 25% Europe’s tidal stream potential Well established onshore wind Scotland: Winner (again) of the natural lottery
  25. 27. The potential of wind energy is being realised <ul><li>In 2009, 27% of Scotland’s electricity consumption provided by renewable sources </li></ul><ul><li>And growing, with significant pipeline of projects gaining planning approval </li></ul>Over last 4 years, Scottish Ministers have consented 44 renewable energy projects – over 2GW
  26. 28. “ Blue Seas, Green Energy” <ul><li>Up to 25GW in UK Round 3 Licensing round – around 5 GW in Scotland </li></ul><ul><li>Scottish Territorial Waters – a further 5GW; </li></ul><ul><li>Continuing to gauge developer interest with Crown Estate and Enterprise agencies to inform </li></ul>
  27. 29. The Transmission challenge <ul><li>GB wide process to envision the Transmission network for the future </li></ul><ul><li>Substantial investment required – and probably beyond what is outlined here – </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Existing projects </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Very strong need case </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strong need case </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Future requirements </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Principally focussed on enabling Low Carbon generation (Renewables and nuclear) </li></ul>