1. Scotland’s Low Carbon Ambitions David Wilson Director of Energy and Climate Change [email_address]

4. “ Hope is on the horizon. You are exploiting one of the greatest resources anywhere on the planet, with wind onshore and particularly offshore” Vice President Al Gore, visiting Edinburgh September 2011 "The Scottish Government has already taken the lead with our ambitious legislation to cut emissions by 42% by 2020”. Mike Rann, the outgoing premier of South Australia, awarding Scotland’s First Minister the South Australia International Climate Change Award. International recognition of Scotland’s climate ambitions

5. Adjusted Scottish Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 1990 - 2008, and 2020 and 2050 Targets Base Year

6. Snapshot of progress to date.. Figure 2b:Greenhouse Gas Emissions by source 1990, 1995, 1998 - 2009

8. Current Policies are not enough to achieve targets….. Current policies

9. Current policies + new proposals not enough either New proposals Current policies

10. Current Policies + EU move to 30% Traded sector emissions is enough EU move to 30% target Current policies

11. Current policies +proposals+ EU move to 30% is comfortably enough EU move to 30% target New proposals Current policies

13. Beatrice Project, World’s Deepest Offshore Wind Installation 2 x 5 MW machines in 45 water depth Pelamis P2 device Testing at EMEC – the world’s only grid connected wave and tidal test base Peterhead World leading integrated gas CCS project Whitelee Wind Farm, near Glasgow 322MW, 140 turbines Europe’s largest windfarm

14. Abatement potential

19. Adapted from Royal Dutch Shell Foresight matters . . . Current Realities ( mental maps ) Multiple Paths Alternative Future Images FORESIGHT The Present The Path The Future FORECAST

20. Key Variables

21. Scenarios

23. The Affordability challenge

25. Scotland’s Low Carbon Ambitions David Wilson Director of Energy and Climate Change [email_address]

26. 25% Europe’s offshore wind potential 10% Europe’s wave potential 25% Europe’s tidal stream potential Well established onshore wind Scotland: Winner (again) of the natural lottery