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Scotland’s Low Carbon Ambitions David Wilson Director of Energy and Climate Change [email_address]
 
Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009: A strategic opportunity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ Hope is on the horizon.  You are exploiting one of the greatest resources anywhere on the planet, with wind onshore and particularly offshore” Vice President Al Gore, visiting Edinburgh September 2011 "The Scottish Government has already taken the lead with our ambitious legislation to cut emissions by 42% by 2020”. Mike Rann, the outgoing premier of South Australia, awarding Scotland’s First Minister the  South Australia International Climate Change Award.  International recognition of Scotland’s climate ambitions
Adjusted Scottish Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 1990 - 2008, and 2020 and 2050 Targets   Base Year
Snapshot of progress to date.. Figure 2b:Greenhouse Gas Emissions by source 1990, 1995, 1998 - 2009                                                                                                   
2009 data now available ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Current Policies are not enough to achieve targets….. Current policies
Current policies + new proposals  not enough either New proposals Current policies
Current Policies + EU move to 30% Traded sector emissions  is  enough   EU move to 30% target Current policies
Current policies +proposals+ EU move to 30% is comfortably enough EU move to 30% target New proposals Current policies
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Beatrice Project, World’s Deepest Offshore Wind Installation 2 x 5 MW machines in 45 water depth Pelamis P2 device Testing at EMEC – the world’s only grid connected wave and tidal test base Peterhead World leading integrated gas CCS project Whitelee Wind Farm, near Glasgow 322MW, 140 turbines Europe’s largest windfarm
Abatement potential
Housing challenge is well understood, but needs funded ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Homes and Communities Proposals
Transport proposals ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Agriculture and Forestry Proposals ,[object Object],[object Object]
Where will emissions savings arise from –  a 20by20 Plan? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Adapted from Royal Dutch Shell Foresight matters . . .  Current Realities ( mental maps ) Multiple Paths Alternative Future Images FORESIGHT The Present The Path   The Future FORECAST
Key Variables
Scenarios
Some issues to provoke thought ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Affordability challenge
 
Scotland’s Low Carbon Ambitions David Wilson Director of Energy and Climate Change [email_address]
25% Europe’s offshore wind potential   10% Europe’s wave potential   25% Europe’s tidal stream potential   Well established onshore wind   Scotland: Winner (again) of the natural lottery
The potential of wind energy is being realised ,[object Object],[object Object],Over last 4 years, Scottish Ministers have  consented 44 renewable energy projects – over 2GW
“ Blue Seas, Green Energy” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Transmission challenge ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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David Wilson | Scotland’s Low Carbon Ambitions

  • 1. Scotland’s Low Carbon Ambitions David Wilson Director of Energy and Climate Change [email_address]
  • 2.  
  • 3.
  • 4. “ Hope is on the horizon. You are exploiting one of the greatest resources anywhere on the planet, with wind onshore and particularly offshore” Vice President Al Gore, visiting Edinburgh September 2011 "The Scottish Government has already taken the lead with our ambitious legislation to cut emissions by 42% by 2020”. Mike Rann, the outgoing premier of South Australia, awarding Scotland’s First Minister the South Australia International Climate Change Award. International recognition of Scotland’s climate ambitions
  • 5. Adjusted Scottish Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 1990 - 2008, and 2020 and 2050 Targets Base Year
  • 6. Snapshot of progress to date.. Figure 2b:Greenhouse Gas Emissions by source 1990, 1995, 1998 - 2009                                                                                                   
  • 7.
  • 8. Current Policies are not enough to achieve targets….. Current policies
  • 9. Current policies + new proposals not enough either New proposals Current policies
  • 10. Current Policies + EU move to 30% Traded sector emissions is enough EU move to 30% target Current policies
  • 11. Current policies +proposals+ EU move to 30% is comfortably enough EU move to 30% target New proposals Current policies
  • 12.
  • 13. Beatrice Project, World’s Deepest Offshore Wind Installation 2 x 5 MW machines in 45 water depth Pelamis P2 device Testing at EMEC – the world’s only grid connected wave and tidal test base Peterhead World leading integrated gas CCS project Whitelee Wind Farm, near Glasgow 322MW, 140 turbines Europe’s largest windfarm
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. Adapted from Royal Dutch Shell Foresight matters . . . Current Realities ( mental maps ) Multiple Paths Alternative Future Images FORESIGHT The Present The Path The Future FORECAST
  • 22.
  • 24.  
  • 25. Scotland’s Low Carbon Ambitions David Wilson Director of Energy and Climate Change [email_address]
  • 26. 25% Europe’s offshore wind potential 10% Europe’s wave potential 25% Europe’s tidal stream potential Well established onshore wind Scotland: Winner (again) of the natural lottery
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.

Editor's Notes

  1. .
  2. But we have perhaps underestimated the wider picture. Not just electricity, but heat, transport, farming, forests and peatland. We have put exhaustive effort into the right hand list – how to green up the supply of electricity. Still more to do on Renewable Heat But key challenge on the left hand side - changing the behaviour of consumers and businesses But the scale of ambition here is one that demands a much stronger focus on behavioural change than has traditionally been the case on issues of public policy We’ve followed the six Es as our guidance here – and fully aware of the latest work led by the Institute of Government / Cabinet office. We are only at the start of our task to embed this new thinking in our approach, but we would like Scotland to be a prominent player (and not just in the field of climate change). And we have something new to offer – ask Rebekah to tell you more about that But finally:
  3. .
  4. And we now have a sense that we have wont he natural lottery again